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US PoliERA 2018 |OT10| McConnell is "mule piss"
- Thread starter Midnight Jon
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I just can't wrap my head around why people still vote for Ted Cruz. It's fucking mind boggling. Everyone hates him from all sides, who the fuck is voting for him?
The ME GOP gubernatorial candidate settled a sex discrimination lawsuit.
Hello, Governor Mills and a trifecta (we only need one seat in the state senate). This will play especially badly after Sue's antics last week.
What is in the fucking water up there?
Hello, Governor Mills and a trifecta (we only need one seat in the state senate). This will play especially badly after Sue's antics last week.
What is in the fucking water up there?
Maine is really a state that needs to be relocated down south. It can attach to Florida and serve as the ball sack.
The problem is we have five Democrats running in states that both Romney and Trump won (and four are Bush-Bush-McCain too, Donnelly of Indiana being the only exception as Obama barely won it in 08). Manchin, for example, is running in West Virginia which voted for Trump by 42 points. The other four (Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota) also voted for Trump by double digits.
In total there are 26 Democratic-held seats compared to only 9 Republican-held ones. Nevada and Arizona have long been the only realistic pickup opportunities. Texas and Tennessee remain longshots while the other states are barely worth considering because they're so heavily Republican.
The problem with tracking Senate races with the generic ballot is that not every state is holding a Senate election, and Democrats are pretty close to being maxed out with this particular configuration (00, 06 and 12 were all good years for Senate Democrats). So it's just bad timing on that part.
As for the House districts in red states, they're usually not nearly as red as the state at large. AZ-2 and KS-3 for example are districts that Clinton won, even though the state as a whole voted Republican.
If you have an R next to your name nothing else matters. Republicans always rally to protect the tribe.
If enough people that aren't died in the wool Republicans and don't usually vote show up for Beto, it could happen. His GotV operation reminds me of what Obama put together in 2008 for North Carolina.
Hillary would've won Arizona without the Comey letter or at least come within a millimeter. Obama also performed well there in 2012. It's not a red state anymore.
Mary Fallin endorsed Kevin Stitt, and I genuinely can't tell if she wants him to win or lose. She has somewhere between a 10 and 20% approval rating. She is toxic.
Using RCP averages:
2004: Bush up 6.3 in polling, wins by 2.5.
2008: Obama lead by 6.5 in polling, wins by 12.5.
2010: Harry Reid was behind by 2.7 in the polling by election day. He won by 5.6.
2012: Obama leads polling by 2.8, wins by 6.7. Heller up 4, wins by 1.2.
(there weren't any senate races in 2014, and we kind of surrendered the governorship this year which was speculated to be the reason the Reid machine failed to save Ross Miller at least.)
2016: Clinton behind by 0.8, wins by 2.4. Masto ahead by 1.8, wins by 2.4.
I'm not concerned yet.
2004: Bush up 6.3 in polling, wins by 2.5.
2008: Obama lead by 6.5 in polling, wins by 12.5.
2010: Harry Reid was behind by 2.7 in the polling by election day. He won by 5.6.
2012: Obama leads polling by 2.8, wins by 6.7. Heller up 4, wins by 1.2.
(there weren't any senate races in 2014, and we kind of surrendered the governorship this year which was speculated to be the reason the Reid machine failed to save Ross Miller at least.)
2016: Clinton behind by 0.8, wins by 2.4. Masto ahead by 1.8, wins by 2.4.
I'm not concerned yet.
THANK YOU! First time I heard that tune it sounded like the Top Gun theme to the point I thought it had to be intentional.
y'know how one reason trump is popular is that people fantasize about being wealthy enough to get away with being an asshole for a living?
i think a lot of those same people fantasize about getting away with cruz's particular kind of smug douchebag attitude.
It's because of Ted Cruz's personal repugnance that we even have a chance at the seat. Cornyn would be smashing Beto.
Yeah I don't want to just straight-up unskew things, but Nevada polling has always been really off in the Republicans' favor.
The most annoying narrative of 2012 was that Heller was unbeatable and he barely scraped by. Well, second most annoying because at least he won, the most annoying was that Scott Brown was unbeatable.
George is invoking the Trump School of Pulling Shit Out of His Ass defense
I hope something similar happens in Texas. I still highly doubt that Beto will win, but he won't lose by 9 points either. I think the margin of defeat is going to be around 4 points.
I agree. Even 55-45 would be the best performance for a Democratic candidate in over twenty years, but I think it'll be slightly closer.
A margin of less than ten points is going to help us so much downballot, especially in suburban districts like TX-07 and 32, where Beto is going to win and could help get our candidates across the finish line.
I guess either I missed this here due to it being posted by someone I have blocked or it just wasn't posted here:
https://www.resetera.com/threads/mi...rke-taking-half-for-his-pac-by-default.74308/
That's pretty sleazy.
https://www.resetera.com/threads/mi...rke-taking-half-for-his-pac-by-default.74308/
That's pretty sleazy.
Why would his Republican colleagues hate him? He already built his brand and is now a reliable asset who always votes in lockstep with the rest of his party. I think the whole "even Republicans hate Ted Cruz!" thing was overstated to the benefit of the brand he was trying to build for himself.
Yeah, ultimately, I come down here: If you're Haitian or a woman or both and you still choose to represent the GOP, you reap what you sow.
There are millions of Ted Cruz's out there in our society. No one fucking likes them, but they think that they're upstanding citizens, righteous and moral and smart and good.
Though in the back of their minds, they sense that everyone kinda hates them, even the people at their churches or softball games. It fuels their anger and self-righteousness. I bet there are thousands of Texas GOP voters who have stared longingly at a picture of Beto over the past few weeks tbh.
We are going to need to shatter youth turnout expectations sort of like we did in Virginia. But more. Most polling can't account for something like that
Especially in Texas (and North Dakota). That's how Beto has to beat the numbers. And honestly if young people don't turn out for him in a midterm they won't turnout for anybody
Especially in Texas (and North Dakota). That's how Beto has to beat the numbers. And honestly if young people don't turn out for him in a midterm they won't turnout for anybody
They've been learning from their good friends in ISIS and other terrorist groups. Take advantage of the disadvantaged.
Beto's looking so young helps. I can't believe he's 46! He's as old as Bill Clinton when Bill was elected president!
The fight PAC logo is giant on the donate page and it clearly lays out what you are donating too. It's only sleazy if you assume people can't read. Kamala did the exact same thing this year but I don't see anyone making a thread about it and calling her sleazy.
Agreed, Beto's charisma and massive GotV drive is going to win the Democratic party a few House seats. I hope, when he in all likelihood loses, that first time voters and other Texas Democrats won't become dejected. They're building the foundation right now to end the GOP's iron grip on Texas in the near future.
They'd vote for any R over an evil, baby-killing Dem. That's how Mitch McConnell keeps winning despite having the lowest approval rating of any Senator.
Polling points to young people voting this year at Presidential election levels.
Didn't know that Kamala did that. And I'm not sure what hers looked like but I could have thought it was sleazy.
IMO Avenatti should have disclosed in his tweet that some money would go to a PAC affiliated with him.
This is all IMO though, you're entitled to think otherwise.
You have to keep in mind that in this case, what the entire country thinks of him doesn't matter. Only people in Texas are voting for him, and Texas has a strong evangelical contingent that is very supportive of Cruz.
It's the same thing with McConnell: he is maybe the most hated senator ever, even among the GOP, but he's still popular in Kentucky. And being popular in Kentucky is all that matters because those are the only people who actually vote for him.
I'm going to agree that TV advertising is a money sink with diminishing returns.
The people Beto needs to be turning out (millennials, Hispanics) are watching less and less broadcast television by the day. I see television ads exactly once a week during NFL games and no other time.
Bombarding baby boomers watching CBS with even MORE ads isn't going to do what he needs.
Aren't him and Cruz almost the same age? Yet Beto looks 5+ years younger.
McConnell's not popular in Kentucky. Again, he has the lowest approval rating of any Senator. But they will vote for literally ANYONE with an R after their name over a stinking Dem.
Flake is flaking out as the second least popular Senator because he actually had a decent chance of losing if he ran, as AZ is no longer red.
I do agree re: evangelicals and Cruz though. My single issue voter relatives (who are Catholic but w/e) backed Cruz in the primaries.
They don't even need a strategy...
I think it comes down to the difference between democrats and republicans.
The liberal wing has all of these "deal breakers", and will refuse to vote for candidates who aren't lefty enough for them on the assumption that a moderate democrat is no different from a republican. (see Susan Sarandon) Too many liberal voters feel that their votes aren't owed and that they need to be earned.
But Republicans are fucking loyal to their party. They get off of their asses and vote in every election and primary. No election is too small. They march to the polling place and cast their votes down the line for every "R" they see. They don't care if their guy is a rapist, crook, or pedophile. As far as they're concerned, the pedo is better than a Dem.
Until the far left can figure that out and stop throwing away their votes on Jill Stein or staying at home butthurt because Bernie didn't get the nomination, the democrats are going to keep getting steamrolled. Ultimately, they need to do what the Republicans do and vote against the party they see as less bad instead of waiting for the perfect candidate.
Fair point. I knew McConnell was super unpopular nationally but I thought he was still popular locally, turns out I was wrong.
You bring up a good point, though. I definitely think there are people in Texas, just like Kentucky, who may not necessarily love Cruz but would still vote for a ham sandwich over someone like Beto. And that's on top of the support from evangelicals.
Thank you, and on that topic where are the damn YouTube ads? I have yet to see one, but I've seen several from Republicans.
Tom Perez said he would be focusing on internet advertising and voter organizing, but the intelligent prioritization of the DNC hasn't seemed to have caught on with the other Democratic party arms.
Beto doesn't believe in tv ads either. He's gone on record saying this, but he has to run some to get to rural older people.
Not being funny when I say I assume the Sonic people are already infiltrated
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