Jeeeeeesus. What a creep. Can't wait for " footage from when I was a toddler " defense.
US PoliERA 2018 |OT10| McConnell is "mule piss"
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Jeeeeeesus. What a creep. Can't wait for " footage from when I was a toddler " defense.
Was this his casting footage to try and land the part of Michael Scott?
I think the creep already came out and said that he was "trying to be funny". Stupid ass excuse from a fucking creep.
At least high single digits, potentially double digits. We're at the point where she needs to run up the score to get us the state legislature.
Nothing about that was "trying to be funny". His look, his mannerisms, the tone. Shit was super creepy.
Yikes.
He was wrong, bud. I love Kirb, but he was out of line there.
At the old place that would have likely been an instant perm. I doubt this one is.
He argued the live action Aladdin doesn't have some middle eastern actors because they can't both sing and act.
I'm assuming he thinks this because of Islam, idk.
Either way, he doubled down when called out.
All of that outsider, dark, (((SOROS)))), money entering the race. Why would any Texan want to vote for that when they can vote for Ted "home boy" Cruz?!
you think so? maybe. I mean I wouldn't have posted that.
Sherrod Brown seems to be swimming cash! Hopefully he can drag Cordray across the finish line. Him and our SOS candidate as well.
As an aside, man were those Kirblar posts super dumb. What the fuck was he thinking? >_<
As an aside, man were those Kirblar posts super dumb. What the fuck was he thinking? >_<
That was just the number of million dollar tickets Mariah sells at ha concerts every night.
I'm hoping we get a Michigan poll from Marist soon. Last time they released MN and WI polls they came in a cluster with MI, I believe.
I'm thinking their MN/WI polls were a bit too optimistic (guessing it's closer to Evers by ~5 and Walz by ~10 myself) but it'd be great if they were on the money.
Harry Enten put out a House model. I think it's new but it might have just been updated.
Anyway he's predicting a 23 seat Dem majority which would obviously be fantastic.
Anyway he's predicting a 23 seat Dem majority which would obviously be fantastic.
He has MN as 7-1 DFL.
I WANT TO BELIEVE HARRY
Maryland had to gerrymander for that kind of result.
What's Beto going to do with all that $$$$$?
Feels kinda wasteful unless it's for GOTV and helps House races
Feels kinda wasteful unless it's for GOTV and helps House races
This state is such a confusing political mess.
Sherrod Brown is likely going to run away with this election, but Cordray is struggling.
Hell, wouldn't surprise me if Rob Portman runs away with his election too when he's up in a few years. Both he and Sherrod are incredibly competent campaign-runners.
Plus I think Rob is "popular" here because you never hear from him. Sure, he votes with Trump all of the time, but you never see him doing TV tours or on FOX News, so he's easy to ignore.
And a 4 seat Senate Republican Margin, +3 seat gain.
Republicans Win:
Nevada
North Dakota
Did you miss where I said he has the largest gotv campaign TX has ever seen? Also he's started buying tv ads, which are crazy expensive in TX
For all the brilliance of the founding fathers, the senate is going to keep fucking this country up for a long time. But good news on the house.
I get a little irritated when they say things like "a twenty-three seat majority" when they're really saying that we'll gain 34 seats to get to 229-206. It just feels like a more awkward way to express it, especially since most outlets talk about the number of seats gained, not the seat advantage.
I'm gonna go overboard with my predictions. 50+ House seats. We're going to be keeping all of the seats were defending in the senate and get NV, AZ, TX, MS, and I forget the other seat.
Yeah, and he even has the audacity to use the Nassar victims in his ads.
Bare minimum, we need a fucking stop gap for some of this evil shit. I'll take it with the House.
Nevada should still be considered lean Dem. North Dakota is definitely lean R.
You mean a 1 seat gain.
His most likely prediction leaves it at 48D-52R. It's currently 49D-51R.
Catherine Cortez-Masto trailed Joe Heck by 7 this time in 2016. Everyone thought Harry Reid was toast in 2010.
Rosen has to beat an incumbent, so the race being statistically tied is still a fairly good position.
The numbers indicate some sort of weird vote-splitting deal where the Rs comfortably keep the Senate but the D+ fairly comfortably take the House, and I cannot wrap my head around the practical conditions for this scenario to happen. Probably, it's my own ignorance of the key differences between House and Senate races, but I feel like I generally understand those differences well enough.
Not to UNSKEW THE POLLS but hasn't polling of Nevada on the state level historically underestimated the Dems every single time? Like there's some weird quirks with Nevada polling that always happens.
Most of the House districts we need are in blue or purple states. A lot of the important Senate races are in red states.
Yes. I wouldn't call it unskewing because it's a documented phenomenon that's happened over many years and with many pollsters. A lot of the population in NV is transient, making voter information less reliable, and works nights.
It's easy. If all seats in the senate were open, dems would stand a chance to win it back due to high voter turnout. As it is, most of the senators up for election are in already dem controlled states so there's not much to be gained and higher chance to lose a seat. The best shot at taking the senate is 2020 when more Republican seats are on the chopping block.
Sure, but aren't a number of districts in red states also at risk of flipping even though we don't need them?
Nah, fuck it, I'm not even questioning this, you're almost surely right. Sometimes, I look at the data and the reports and the predictions and lose sight of the simple explanations.
Seems implausible that at least one of the longshot Senate Dems doesn't win if the election manages to swing the House the way people are predicting. We may not take the Senate, but we won't lose further ground. You don't sweep all the tight races in an election where you were otherwise blown off the map (unless they cheat).
Sure, but aren't a number of districts in red states also at risk of flipping even though we don't need them?
Nah, fuck it, I'm not even questioning this, you're almost surely right. Sometimes, I look at the data and the reports and the predictions and lose sight of the simple explanations.
So yeah, the GCB is more predictive of House races than Senate races for obvious reasons, but at some point, if our turnout gets us to +9 or +11 or +13, that means we got the turnout to win some of those Senate races in states where we should be losing. Maybe that's not true in white-ass ND, but in Missouri or FL, it should mean something.
Should I be happy because, hey, potential seat pickup, or should I be crushed by the obvious racism/sexism mashup going on here?
They need it man. Mia Love is trash but her ad team is so good. McAdams could win but man he needs to step his game up, I honestly had no idea the race was that close.
I've said before that MO and IN, while Republican, are nowhere near as red as ND and WV and have large minority bases upon which to draw.
Beto seems to be dedicating a great deal of his money to turnout operations, which I think is the wiser move and how an upset could potentially happen.
Think of it this way: we're poised to win an overwhelming majority of senate seats up for election this year. the voters likely giving us the house just mostly don't have the opportunity to vote on flipping senate seats.
Beto being the win that gives the Democratic party the majority would be a storybook ending for the 2018 election. I can't imagine a victory that would be more gratifying short of a woman destroying Trump in the 2020 election.
Weill if it's directed to GOTV as it seems go spend it, just hope the campaign doesn't burn it on TV ads
I'd say happy because we're not the ones whose party rests on those hateful beliefs.
It is sad, though. Anywhere else, an R+13 seat with an incumbent wouldn't be competitive unless there were a scandal.
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