PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Post E3 2018

BreakAtmo · Oct 16, 2018

TheRaidenPT said:
There is a lot of differences, especially when it comes down to SSD/RAM due to bulk pricing dropping off with a bigger production estimate.

It can also mean a higher end APU when it comes to both Ryzen/Navi tech due to cheaper prices.. An extra year would also Cerny and it's software team to develop better dev tools and API upgrades.

A lot can happen in a year especially between 2019/2021 (2021 will be a drastic change when it comes to the GPU market and you can quote me on this for all you want because we are about to get Intel as a major GPU player in that year)

The thing is though, if the benefits of waiting until 2020 all boil down to 'things would be cheaper', the question is, would they be cheap enough to offset the year's worth of lost sales? I think it could just as easily be better to sink more money into a 2019 machine to get those more powerful specs, launch earlier to monopolise mindshare and ecosystem retention, and use that to offset the bigger loss they'd need to take. Then they get greater customer feedback over 2020 that lets them improve the PS5, so that by Holiday 2020 is a better system than what would've launched at that time. All speculation obviously, but if the benefits all come down to money...

Agreed about 2021 though, we should be getting AMD's Nextgen GPU by then as well, surely? And hopefully ray-tracing tech and DLSS style stuff is in most GPUs and games by then.

Gamer17 · Oct 16, 2018

VX1 said:
So,you are saying Sony will not announce next PS during entire 2019 just week after Sony CEO,in October 2018,mentioned next gen PS?
We gonna skip entire 2019 and go into 2020 just like that?
I mean...really?!?

u had the leak of ps4 in 2011(2 years before launch). now u have sony saying ,,surprise surprise, ,,, PS5 is a necessity when he was asked about next gen . if we continue at this pace 2020 will also seem unlikely as we have absolutely nothing till now lol

RoninStrife · Oct 16, 2018

KALOSMANI said:
Wierd my JoyCons seem quite solid. In fact my PS4 controllers break more easily.

Meant the Negon, two moving parts.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Namco_Negcon_centred.jpg

VX1 · Oct 16, 2018

Gamer17 said:
u had the leak of ps4 in 2011(2 years before launch)

And you had Neo leak ~6 months before Pro was launched in 2016.
Time has changed, they switched to x86, wheels are moving faster now then in the past...

Deleted member 9584 · Oct 16, 2018

KALOSMANI said:
Problem with Sony announcing PS5 in February 2019. The hyore for graphics for games like Last of Us 2 and Ghost of Tsushima will be lowered as people will care more about next gen only graphics. I felt like Gran Turismo 6 and God of War 2 lost a bit of the hype. If PS5 launched at fall 2020. We would get all the top games before PS5 is even announced. Perhaps maybe one game like Ghost of Tsushima or Death Steanding will slip around the time PS5 is announced.

The Last of Us launched three months after Sony revealed the PS4 and it went on to be super successful.

Gran Turismo 6 was just textbook mismanagement in that why would you let a studio that takes forever to release games, especially ones people want, on your old system a month after the new one release and then have there be a four year gap between GT6 and their first PS4 game?

I don't think announcing PS5 before GoT and TLoU2 release is a bad idea. Games are available now and people would be excited for them because they would most likely be upscaled on PS5 (if they weren't already built for both anyway).

Gamer17 · Oct 16, 2018

VX1 said:
And you had Neo leak ~6 months before Pro was launched in 2016.
Time has changed, they switched to x86, wheels are moving faster now then in the past...

thats not a new generation. thats a pro model. different case from a completely new gen . 3 more months and u guys have no other choice but to move to 2020 as sony wont be announcing PS meeting at the end of jan for end of February. but if there is no PS meeting in feb u guys have no more excuses ,right? and no sony wont do a September PS meeting and release in November like pro.this is a new generation .

VX1 · Oct 16, 2018

Scrawnton said:
Gran Turismo 6 was just textbook mismanagement

Indeed.They really,really fucked up GT6 release...it was mind-boggling.MS and Forza stomped over them this gen completely,hats off to them.

VX1 · Oct 16, 2018

Gamer17 said:
but if there is no PS meeting in feb u guys have no more excuses ,right?

Yeah,things will be very clear by Feb/March next year.

BreakAtmo · Oct 16, 2018

VX1 said:
And you had Neo leak ~6 months before Pro was launched in 2016.
Time has changed, they switched to x86, wheels are moving faster now then in the past...

Still, I would imagine the leak would be earlier for PS5.

Unless Sony is cool with just coasting through 2020 on first-party games (they generally don't leak very early, correct? I don't remember ever hearing about Knack or Killzone SF before the PS4 reveal) and patches for all (or all recent and popular) PS4 games, and are giving most third-parties until 2020. I could easily see them getting away with that, and I'd be fine with it.

VX1 · Oct 16, 2018

BreakAtmo said:
Still, I would imagine the leak would be earlier for PS5

Of course,i expect some substantial leak in the next few months.

TheRaidenPT · Oct 16, 2018

BreakAtmo said:
The thing is though, if the benefits of waiting until 2020 all boil down to 'things would be cheaper', the question is, would they be cheap enough to offset the year's worth of lost sales? I think it could just as easily be better to sink more money into a 2019 machine to get those more powerful specs, launch earlier to monopolise mindshare and ecosystem retention, and use that to offset the bigger loss they'd need to take. Then they get greater customer feedback over 2020 that lets them improve the PS5, so that by Holiday 2020 is a better system than what would've launched at that time. All speculation obviously, but if the benefits all come down to money...

Agreed about 2021 though, we should be getting AMD's Nextgen GPU by then as well, surely? And hopefully ray-tracing tech and DLSS style stuff is in most GPUs and games by then.

It's not just a case of being "cheaper" per say, it's to remove the thunder from the PS4.

Look, PS4 momentum in 2018 has been insane and with TLOU2 and Ghost Of Thushima into 2019..It's gonna be even bigger why would you want to steal sales and the potential to even hit 105m consoles sold with the PS5?

Like I said it's a win-win situation to everyone if we wait for 2020.

I wanna play Death Stranding and TLOU2 at 4k60 like you all but in reality it doesn't seem to be 2019... Plus there's no point of announcing a product a year away.. Look at Skorpio so much hype so much talk about it and it wast just a Core Xbox gamer product not aimed towards the causal gamer but the more dedicated ones who even got 4k TVs. By the look of things, 4k adoption rate will continue into 2019 especially with HDMI 2.1 coming along.

As things stand it's 2020 unless Sony decides to drop a console in 2019 and jungle with both PS4 and PS5 in a integrated market.

I would love a PS5 in 2019, with no doubt.. But 2019 as it is we got tons of great 3rd party and 1st party coming.

But I'll give you guys another possibility for 2019 with the IW CoD game which seems very odd even Benji agreed that their track record is usually right.

BreakAtmo · Oct 16, 2018

TheRaidenPT said:
It's not just a case of being "cheaper" per say, it's to remove the thunder from the PS4.

Look, PS4 momentum in 2018 has been insane and with TLOU2 and Ghost Of Thushima into 2019..It's gonna be even bigger why would you want to steal sales and the potential to even hit 105m consoles sold with the PS5?

Like I said it's a win-win situation to everyone if we wait for 2020.

I wanna play Death Stranding and TLOU2 at 4k60 like you all but in reality it doesn't seem to be 2019... Plus there's no point of announcing a product a year away.. Look at Skorpio so much hype so much talk about it and it wast just a Core Xbox gamer product not aimed towards the causal gamer but the more dedicated ones who even got 4k TVs. By the look of things, 4k adoption rate will continue into 2019 especially with HDMI 2.1 coming along.

As things stand it's 2020 unless Sony decides to drop a console in 2019 and jungle with both PS4 and PS5 in a integrated market.

I would love a PS5 in 2019, with no doubt.. But 2019 as it is we got tons of great 3rd party and 1st party coming.

But I'll give you guys another possibility for 2019 with the IW CoD game which seems very odd even Benji agreed that their track record is usually right.

I mainly just disagree with the idea that PS4's momentum would be slowed in the way you say - I always have. I think PS4 will be like the PS2, and will continue to sell great due to all the people waiting for it to drop to $199 (and then probably buy it on sale for less than that). That's also part of the reason if live to see a powerful $499 PS5, to solidly differentiate them as well as give us a beast of a console. PS5 in 2019 would sell amazingly too, but to those who largely already own PS4s.

I also think it's possible that the PS4 could have a longer life than any of us are currently thinking, through a potential portable version following the 7nm Super Slim that would compete with the Switch 2. I still don't know if that would be entirely possible though, it would need to wait for 5nm at the very least, more likely 3nm. And it would probably need to be more like a Zen-based emulation chipset, running the games at reconstructed resolutions.

TheThreadsThatBindUs · Oct 16, 2018

Pages and pages and pages and pages of arguing over the release date.

We really need some leaks, gotdammit!!!

Taffy Lewis · Oct 16, 2018

Because people were talking about writing directly to NAND, bypassing RAM for game recording: How does it work on PS4/Xbox? I remember the assumption being that they constantly write to disk, but wouldn't that completely ruin hard drive performance? Do they continuously record to RAM and only save to disk when requested by the user?

goonergaz · Oct 16, 2018

goonergaz · Oct 16, 2018

TheRaidenPT said:
Like I said it's a win-win situation to everyone if we wait for 2020.

The problem is 'when' in 2020? I mean, realistically most 2019ers will happily take Q1 2020, it's only a few months later. But a Q4 2020 release just seems too far off.

Don't also forget that getting in ahead of MS could reap Sony benefits - let's face it, they are already going in a favourites so if they went in ~6mths + ahead of MS it could be a bloodbath unless MS has something up their sleeves!

OOI has anyone posted anything about PS3 sales/momentum during this window?

Marano · Oct 16, 2018

TheThreadsThatBindUs said:
Pages and pages and pages and pages of arguing over the release date.

We really need some leaks, gotdammit!!!

Wait for X018. We may get some news there about xbox.

goonergaz · Oct 16, 2018

BreakAtmo said:
I mainly just disagree with the idea that PS4's momentum would be slowed in the way you say - I always have. I think PS4 will be like the PS2, and will continue to sell great due to all the people waiting for it to drop to $199 (and then probably buy it on sale for less than that). That's also part of the reason if live to see a powerful $499 PS5, to solidly differentiate them as well as give us a beast of a console. PS5 in 2019 would sell amazingly too, but to those who largely already own PS4s.

I also think it's possible that the PS4 could have a longer life than any of us are currently thinking, through a potential portable version following the 7nm Super Slim that would compete with the Switch 2. I still don't know if that would be entirely possible though, it would need to wait for 5nm at the very least, more likely 3nm. And it would probably need to be more like a Zen-based emulation chipset, running the games at reconstructed resolutions.

yeah, I'm not sure PS5 will affect PS4 buyers...I mean, if they don't already own one it's highly unlikely PS5 announcement will change that as these guys are waiting for the PS4 price to drop further...which will likely happen with PS5, so in fact could boost PS4 sales. Again, be interesting to see some sales figure of previous examples...

Anthony Hopkins · Oct 16, 2018

goonergaz said:
The problem is 'when' in 2020? I mean, realistically most 2019ers will happily take Q1 2020, it's only a few months later. But a Q4 2020 release just seems too far off.

Don't also forget that getting in ahead of MS could reap Sony benefits - let's face it, they are already going in a favourites so if they went in ~6mths + ahead of MS it could be a bloodbath unless MS has something up their sleeves!

OOI has anyone posted anything about PS3 sales/momentum during this window?

Sony and ms will be able to figure out when each other are launching. They probably have plans in place if one tries to jump the gun.
E.g if sony did annouce in feb 2019 that the ps5 is coming in nov 2019, MS may try and launch at the same time.

TheRaidenPT · Oct 16, 2018

goonergaz said:
The problem is 'when' in 2020? I mean, realistically most 2019ers will happily take Q1 2020, it's only a few months later. But a Q4 2020 release just seems too far off.

Don't also forget that getting in ahead of MS could reap Sony benefits - let's face it, they are already going in a favourites so if they went in ~6mths + ahead of MS it could be a bloodbath unless MS has something up their sleeves!

OOI has anyone posted anything about PS3 sales/momentum during this window?

MS is no rush to launch Scarlet asap because their core players just bought the X.

2020 seems solid for them

goonergaz · Oct 16, 2018

Anthony Hopkins said:
Sony and ms will be able to figure out when each other are launching. They probably have plans in place if one tries to jump the gun.
E.g if sony did annouce in feb 2019 that the ps5 is coming in nov 2019, MS may try and launch at the same time.

I very much doubt that because...

TheRaidenPT said:
MS is no rush to laugh Scarlet asap because their core players just bought the X.

2020 seems solid for them

Exactly my point.

Anthony Hopkins · Oct 16, 2018

goonergaz said:
I very much doubt that because...

Exactly my point.

Makes no difference because 1X is still this gen.

goonergaz · Oct 16, 2018

Anthony Hopkins said:
Makes no difference because 1X is still this gen.

??

So you think MS can release a next gen console less than 3 years after the X...potentially (if Sony release in 2019) just 2 years later?

How do you think that would go down? How much do you think that would cost and how much better might it be?

From a value proposition Sonys road is much easier.

Le Dude · Oct 16, 2018

TheRaidenPT said:
It's not just a case of being "cheaper" per say, it's to remove the thunder from the PS4.

Look, PS4 momentum in 2018 has been insane and with TLOU2 and Ghost Of Thushima into 2019..It's gonna be even bigger why would you want to steal sales and the potential to even hit 105m consoles sold with the PS5?

Like I said it's a win-win situation to everyone if we wait for 2020.

I wanna play Death Stranding and TLOU2 at 4k60 like you all but in reality it doesn't seem to be 2019... Plus there's no point of announcing a product a year away.. Look at Skorpio so much hype so much talk about it and it wast just a Core Xbox gamer product not aimed towards the causal gamer but the more dedicated ones who even got 4k TVs. By the look of things, 4k adoption rate will continue into 2019 especially with HDMI 2.1 coming along.

As things stand it's 2020 unless Sony decides to drop a console in 2019 and jungle with both PS4 and PS5 in a integrated market.

I would love a PS5 in 2019, with no doubt.. But 2019 as it is we got tons of great 3rd party and 1st party coming.

But I'll give you guys another possibility for 2019 with the IW CoD game which seems very odd even Benji agreed that their track record is usually right.

I dunno, the PS4 sales the past couple years have been stronger than even Sony predicted, but the PS4 sales have been decreasing YOY, while the Xbox One's sales have been increasing and the Switch has quickly made a splash on the scene. Sony has been quite reserved in their trade shows and announcements for the past two years already. IMO, unless they've still got some big unannounced games up their sleeves, if they wait until Holiday 2020 they actually risk losing some of their momentum prior to the launch of the PS5, which would be a problem.

TheRaidenPT · Oct 16, 2018

goonergaz said:
??

So you think MS can release a next gen console less than 3 years after the X...potentially (if Sony release in 2019) just 2 years later?

How do you think that would go down? How much do you think that would cost and how much better might it be?

From a value proposition Sonys road is much easier.

This... Put yourself in MS position you lost ton of core/casual gamers to the PS ecosystem this gen, and you just launched the X which still obviously sports an old gen memory system & CPU... In which you convinced your fanbase to buy it mainly because of 3rd party and the occasional Xbox exclusive this gen.. And out of the blue you want them to buy a new gen in 2019? That's insane.

What is gonna happen is that Scarlet comes out in 2020, maybe you'll see the Xbox streaming in Q4 2019. But one thing I can assure you is that Halo game will be cross gen due to the fact Microsoft is in no position to leave their existing but small (which I remind you is consisted of 90% of S/Xbox One Fat users) in the dark with a new gen.

I'll give you this example my wife is a hardcore Xbox gamer, she doesn't even wanna play my PS4 games just because she hates "single player gamers" even her said that if they don't support her X next gen she won't buy a new console because she literally bought it a year ago, they have to support both S and X users or they are gonna lose even more people come next gen.

Just see the amount of people talking about PS5, you see many more fans asking about it because they didn't even pick up the Pro when it came out Sony has a bigger chance of upgrading than Xbox users because of that year advantage that MS took.

anexanhume · Oct 16, 2018

JamFlan said:
I dunno, there's still a lot of unexplained things pointing towards a closer launch too.

For instance, Sony's currently announced software mirrors the PS3's 2013 lineup almost perfectly.

Plus they've only announced a single new AAA first party game, that I can think of, in like the past two years. They've also been cutting down on appearances, with a relatively reserved E3 the past 2 years, a small PSX last year, no PSX this year, seemingly no PGW this year, and nothing big announced at TGS this year.

Benji did say there's one more big game yet to be announced, but even if so they'll be coasting out the rest of the PS4's life. If they coast it out another 16 months they really risk losing some of their momentum.

On top of that you'v got the Infinity Ward job listing for a next-gen game and it's Infinity Ward's turn to release a Call of Duty game next year, not in 2020.

Then you've got the fact that Sony mentioned the next piece of hardware recently, which is unusual.

And there's been games announced for next-gen already, in addition to titles that are likely cross-gen and other titles with no defined platforms. Normally games aren't announced for a console that is still 25 months away.

I'm not 100% sold on 2019, but honestly Q1 2020 seems a heck of a lot more likely than Q4 2020 to me. Ironically most people (myself included) think that makes the least sense for a release date, and yet based on what I'm aware of it doesn't seem to conflict with anything we've heard. It would actually fit well with what we know.

PS4 is still in a market leader position and selling for only $100 less than launch MSRP. Sales are barely down over last year, and network revenues are sky high. Compare this to PS3's situation at that same point. They needed to move generations to shake things up and return to profitability seen on PS1 and PS2. They're back there now, and can coast a bit if they want.

Deleted member 9584 · Oct 16, 2018

VX1 said:
Indeed.They really,really fucked up GT6 release...it was mind-boggling.MS and Forza stomped over them this gen completely,hats off to them.

The lack of solid racing games early on (GT6 as a launch title for PS4 would've prevented this) made me buy an Xbox One when Forza Horizon 3 came out.

Forza is now one of my most favorite franchises and ensure that I will have to always get an Xbox.

I remember buying a PSOne and PS2 solely for Gran Turismo. Those days are done now.

Socky · Oct 16, 2018

VX1 said:
So,you are saying Sony will not announce next PS during entire 2019 just week after Sony CEO,in October 2018,mentioned next gen PS?
We gonna skip entire 2019 and go into 2020 just like that?
I mean...really?!?

It seems unlikely to me. Kodera could easily have made the same comments later with a view to 2020, so why now?

Even if it's early 2020 for Sony I would expect the reveal to be at E3 2019 - they could stick with PS4 only, but the show would likely be relatively anaemic and everyone would be talking about PS5 anyway; I don't see the benefit of leaving it until later in 2019.

TheRaidenPT said:
MS is no rush to laugh Scarlet asap because their core players just bought the X.

2020 seems solid for them

But if they are their core players, what are they going to do? Complain about the cost but buy PS5? Or complain about the cost but either buy the X2 anyway, or just wait a while then buy anyway?

The OG Xbox had a much longer life than the X1X is likely to have, but it was still short as hell for a major console. That didn't seem to bother the 360 sales any. I think the anger of X1X owners, while real, will be short-lived and ultimately insignificant, even if MS launch 2019. I doubt it's a [EDIT: major] factor in their decision making.

TheRaidenPT · Oct 16, 2018

anexanhume said:
PS4 is still in a market leader position and selling for only $100 less than launch MSRP. Sales are barely down over last year, and network revenues are sky high. Compare this to PS3's situation at that same point. They needed to move generations to shake things up and return to profitability seen on PS1 and PS2. They're back there now, and can coast a bit if they want.

We can hardly find any Pros in stock too due to the rapid 4k TV adoption rate this year.. Mix that in with the powerhouse PS4 exclusives with well known IPs such as Spider-Man and Last of Us and you are literally moving units as much as you can.

Remember that I didn't even mention RDR2 which even thou it's a 3rd party.. Sony has the marketing rights for this one and most people don't follow the Gaming Industry like us... I got 10 colleagues at work who pre-ordered the PS4 bundle because they thought the game was exclusive due to finding no Xbox bundles, they didn't even care about the fact X is more powerful they went straight for the PS4 Pro bundle because that's what they found first.

Socky said:
But if they are their core players, what are they going to do? Complain about the cost but buy PS5? Or complain about the cost but either buy the X2 anyway, or just wait a while then buy anyway?

The OG Xbox had a much longer life than the X1X is likely to have, but it was still short as hell for a major console. That didn't seem to bother the 360 sales any. I think the anger of X1X owners, while real, will be short-lived and ultimately insignificant, even if MS launch 2019. I doubt it's a factor in their decision making.

Look at the PS4 you are seeing an adoption rate growing by the minute even in a late cycle of the console.. Games like Spider-Man / God of War / RDR2 are moving units to casual users by a wide margin when compared to Xbox... Just look at the lack of Pros in shelves and people screaming for stock in time for the Spidey and RDR2 release.

Regarding the Xbox case, it's a curious one because Microsoft formula was buy getting additional money with the subscriptions either be it Xbox Live, EA Access share %, Game Pass most recently.. It's working quite well for them but you ain't seeing those X consoles flying away from the shelves because they lack powerful IP in house to move those "powerful consoles" units.

Now next gen will be completely different because they are buying new studios and who knows even IPs, but the start will be slow because most of the gaming world is inside Playstation Ecosystem, this is exactly the same strategy that keeps me and Apple users "stuck" or you might as well call it "commitment" to the platform, as long as Sony keeps PS4 BC on the PS5.. It will be very very hard for Xbox to move units early on in the gen.

I do believe that they will sell many but many units come 2-3 years into the cycle

Le Dude · Oct 16, 2018

anexanhume said:
PS4 is still in a market leader position and selling for only $100 less than launch MSRP. Sales are barely down over last year, and network revenues are sky high. Compare this to PS3's situation at that same point. They needed to move generations to shake things up and return to profitability seen on PS1 and PS2. They're back there now, and can coast a bit if they want.

They definitely can coast a bit, but I still think waiting until Holiday 2020 has its risks. As far as I can remember, the only brand new AAA first party title announced in the past two years is Ghosts of Tsushima. They're skipping PSX this year, looks like they're skipping PGW, they didn't really show anything at TGS, and if it's Holiday 2020 they're still roughly 16 months out from the PS5 announcement.

Plus at the time of the PS4 release neither Nintendo or Microsoft were much of a concern. This time around the Switch is a hot item and Microsoft just put out a very well-designed new mid-gen console, they're seeing a sales increase YOY, and they're acquiring studios left and right. Coasting for another year and a half would definitely give the other console manufacturers the chance to regain ground.

Coasting until February 2020 to announce the PS5 would be a bad move, IMO. At the very least I expect an announcement some time next year.

Kemono · Oct 16, 2018

TheRaidenPT said:
It's not just a case of being "cheaper" per say, it's to remove the thunder from the PS4.

Look, PS4 momentum in 2018 has been insane and with TLOU2 and Ghost Of Thushima into 2019..It's gonna be even bigger why would you want to steal sales and the potential to even hit 105m consoles sold with the PS5?

Like I said it's a win-win situation to everyone if we wait for 2020.

I wanna play Death Stranding and TLOU2 at 4k60 like you all but in reality it doesn't seem to be 2019... Plus there's no point of announcing a product a year away.. Look at Skorpio so much hype so much talk about it and it wast just a Core Xbox gamer product not aimed towards the causal gamer but the more dedicated ones who even got 4k TVs. By the look of things, 4k adoption rate will continue into 2019 especially with HDMI 2.1 coming along.

As things stand it's 2020 unless Sony decides to drop a console in 2019 and jungle with both PS4 and PS5 in a integrated market.

I would love a PS5 in 2019, with no doubt.. But 2019 as it is we got tons of great 3rd party and 1st party coming.

But I'll give you guys another possibility for 2019 with the IW CoD game which seems very odd even Benji agreed that their track record is usually right.

Sony would be dumb imo to handle MS the chance to retake the US. Launching in 2019 is something MS can't/don't want to do. So a Playstation 5 would have up to 12 month of sole reign of next-gen. Paired with big hitters like an even prettier TloU2 and Death Stranding i don't understand how someone would want Sony to wait for another year.

Being in front of MS for the next generation is imo far more important than selling a few more old consoles. MS isn't going to handle Sony the win like this gen. They'll need every advantage they can get.

Socky · Oct 16, 2018

I would just add to my point that if MS bring streaming of X2 games to the X1X, there will be few complaints from X1X owners and MS are likely to be lauded for bringing NG games to their current gen owners. There are many more variables to this than there have been in previous gens.

P-Switch · Oct 16, 2018

TheRaidenPT said:
We can hardly find any Pros in stock too due to the rapid 4k TV adoption rate this year.. Mix that in with the powerhouse PS4 exclusives with well known IPs such as Spider-Man and Last of Us and you are literally moving units as much as you can.

Remember that I didn't even mention RDR2 which even thou it's a 3rd party.. Sony has the marketing rights for this one and most people don't follow the Gaming Industry like us... I got 10 colleagues at work who pre-ordered the PS4 bundle because they thought the game was exclusive due to finding no Xbox bundles, they didn't even care about the fact X is more powerful they went straight for the PS4 Pro bundle because that's what they found first.

Hmmm..

TheRaidenPT · Oct 16, 2018

Kemono said:
Sony would be dumb imo to handle MS the chance to retake the US. Launching in 2019 is something MS can't/don't want to do. So a Playstation 5 would have up to 12 month of sole reign of next-gen. Pared with big hitters like an even prettier TloU2 and Death Stranding i don't understand how someone would want Sony to wait for another year.

Being in front of MS for the next generation is mio far more important than selling a few more old consoles. MS isn'tz going to handle Sony the win like this gen. They'll need every advantage they can get.

I would be more worried about Europe if I was Microsoft, I live in Europe and I have a very very large pool of friends and the only people I know that have an Xbox as a main console are my wife's family (they grew up with the original Xbox which rarely happens in my country)

Retaking US is going to be very hard because as I said in the previous post.. Sony's got the player base locked on their ecosystem which feature people's game library, game saves, subscriptions like Plus and most importantly their friends.

This is the same tactic Apple uses with their user base, I myself would never move away from Apple due to the eco system. I own all the platforms yet my main one is the PC quick followed by the PS4 due to my friends circle & exclusives who are my favorite games

anexanhume · Oct 16, 2018

TheRaidenPT said:
We can hardly find any Pros in stock too due to the rapid 4k TV adoption rate this year.. Mix that in with the powerhouse PS4 exclusives with well known IPs such as Spider-Man and Last of Us and you are literally moving units as much as you can.

Remember that I didn't even mention RDR2 which even thou it's a 3rd party.. Sony has the marketing rights for this one and most people don't follow the Gaming Industry like us... I got 10 colleagues at work who pre-ordered the PS4 bundle because they thought the game was exclusive due to finding no Xbox bundles, they didn't even care about the fact X is more powerful they went straight for the PS4 Pro bundle because that's what they found first.

Look at the PS4 you are seeing an adoption rate growing by the minute even in a late cycle of the console.. Games like Spider-Man / God of War / RDR2 are moving units to casual users by a wide margin when compared to Xbox... Just look at the lack of Pros in shelves and people screaming for stock in time for the Spidey and RDR2 release.

Regarding the Xbox case, it's a curious one because Microsoft formula was buy getting additional money with the subscriptions either be it Xbox Live, EA Access share %, Game Pass most recently.. It's working quite well for them but you ain't seeing those X consoles flying away from the shelves because they lack powerful IP in house to move those "powerful consoles" units.

Now next gen will be completely different because they are buying new studios and who knows even IPs, but the start will be slow because most of the gaming world is inside Playstation Ecosystem, this is exactly the same strategy that keeps me and Apple users "stuck" or you might as well call it "commitment" to the platform, as long as Sony keeps PS4 BC on the PS5.. It will be very very hard for Xbox to move units early on in the gen.

I do believe that they will sell many but many units come 2-3 years into the cycle

It seems a stretch to connect 4K TV adoption to Pro shortages. They could easily increase capacity if they wanted to. They're launching what is sure to be the year's number 1 game in a bundle with it, after all.

JamFlan said:
They definitely can coast a bit, but I still think waiting until Holiday 2020 has its risks. As far as I can remember, the only brand new AAA first party title announced in the past two years is Ghosts of Tsushima. They're skipping PSX this year, looks like they're skipping PGW, they didn't really show anything at TGS, and if it's Holiday 2020 they're still roughly 16 months out from the PS5 announcement.

Plus at the time of the PS4 release neither Nintendo or Microsoft were much of a concern. This time around the Switch is a hot item and Microsoft just put out a very well-designed new mid-gen console, they're seeing a sales increase YOY, and they're acquiring studios left and right. Coasting for another year and a half would definitely give the other console manufacturers the chance to regain ground.

Coasting until February 2020 to announce the PS5 would be a bad move, IMO. At the very least I expect an announcement some time next year.

The fact of the matter is that MS is in no better position. They're less likely to launch until 2020 given the X's launch, and none of their new studio acquisitions are ready to contribute yet.

Gemüsepizza · Oct 16, 2018

JamFlan said:
I dunno, the PS4 sales the past couple years have been stronger than even Sony predicted, but the PS4 sales have been decreasing YOY, while the Xbox One's sales have been increasing and the Switch has quickly made a splash on the scene. Sony has been quite reserved in their trade shows and announcements for the past two years already. IMO, unless they've still got some big unannounced games up their sleeves, if they wait until Holiday 2020 they actually risk losing some of their momentum prior to the launch of the PS5, which would be a problem.

Agreed, I don't think it makes much sense for them to wait until their sales slow down and Microsoft can catch up. Then there is also this sentence in one of their job ads:

To enable us keep the momentum of PlayStation® 4's tremendous success worldwide going over to next generation, you'll contribute to multiple opportunities to have an outsized impact on shaping the evolution of our web services platform

This doesn't sound like they want to slowly ride it out. And if you think about it, if Sony manages to launch 12 months before Microsoft, they have already won next-gen. 100%. They would have a 15-20 Mio lead, and thanks to the rise of digital libraries, users will be tied to the Playstation ecosystem like never before. This is an almost historic chance, so what could be worth it to give this up?

QuiteSomething · Oct 16, 2018

People talking about Sony costing this generation with Tlou2, GoT, DS, Days Gone and other smaller game incoming in 2019 and 2020
It's a killer lineup.

Anthony Hopkins · Oct 16, 2018

goonergaz said:
??

So you think MS can release a next gen console less than 3 years after the X...potentially (if Sony release in 2019) just 2 years later?

How do you think that would go down? How much do you think that would cost and how much better might it be?

From a value proposition Sonys road is much easier.

You are assuming there will be disgruntled 1X owners, which I dont think there will be many at all, they can trade or sell and get a scarlett for a couple hundred bucks
Plus from MS perspective having the PS5 getting a lead would be a far bigger problem.

Also I dont why know why 2 years is so much worse then 3yrs that the ps4 pro will be if ps5 comes in 2019.

Kenzodielocke · Oct 16, 2018

Discussing PS5 and Death Stranding launch in 2020.

ekim · Oct 16, 2018

Anthony Hopkins said:
You are assuming there will be disgruntled 1X owners, which I dont think there will be many at all, they can trade or sell and get a scarlett for a couple hundred bucks

Or 1X is forward compatible. Basically having the jump from One --> One X --> Scarlet with the normal One phasing out of support for certain games.

Paxton25 · Oct 16, 2018

Anthony Hopkins said:
You are assuming there will be disgruntled 1X owners, which I dont think there will be many at all, they can trade or sell and get a scarlett for a couple hundred bucks
Plus from MS perspective having the PS5 getting a lead would be a far bigger problem.

Also I dont why know why 2 years is so much worse then 3yrs that the ps4 pro will be if ps5 comes in 2019.

I knew that I might only get 2 years out of my x when I got it early this year. But I'm happy with my purchase, best console I've ever owned. Most X owners are the hardcore and will ditch the X in a heartbeat for the X2 and you'll hear no complaining.

MadScientist · Oct 16, 2018

If Sony decides to release fall 2020, what games are going to be released during the 2020 year? Last E3 they only showed 4 main games, barely anything. No PSX this year, because they don't have much to show. If PS5 was releasing late 2020, then they'd need some other games (besides those 4 E3 2018 games) to be teasing and marketing. Them being silent on what games are coming out post 2019 makes me think that the PS5 is going to be released fall 2019, with new PS5 games coming out. If PS5 isn't being released fall 2019, what the hell are they going to talk about at E3 2019??

chanunnaki · Oct 16, 2018

MadScientist said:
If Sony decides to release fall 2020, what games are going to be released during the 2020 year? Last E3 they only showed 4 main games, barely anything. No PSX this year, because they don't have much to show. If PS5 was releasing late 2020, then they'd need some other games (besides those 4 E3 2018 games) to be teasing and marketing. Them being silent on what games are coming out post 2019 makes me think that the PS5 is going to be released fall 2019, with new PS5 games coming out. If PS5 isn't being released fall 2019, what the hell are they going to talk about at E3 2019??

Your logic is impervious, your reasoning is impetuous.

BreakAtmo · Oct 16, 2018

ekim said:
Or 1X is forward compatible. Basically having the jump from One --> One X --> Scarlet with the normal One phasing out of support for certain games.

Will not happen. The Zen chips in PS5 and Scarlett will be several times more powerful than the X's Jaguar and nextgen games will need - NEED - those chips to work at all.

Kenzodielocke · Oct 16, 2018

MadScientist said:
If Sony decides to release fall 2020, what games are going to be released during the 2020 year? Last E3 they only showed 4 main games, barely anything. No PSX this year, because they don't have much to show. If PS5 was releasing late 2020, then they'd need some other games (besides those 4 E3 2018 games) to be teasing and marketing. Them being silent on what games are coming out post 2019 makes me think that the PS5 is going to be released fall 2019, with new PS5 games coming out. If PS5 isn't being released fall 2019, what the hell are they going to talk about at E3 2019??

They could make a third party show like Microsoft did this year.

Jraphics Horse · Oct 16, 2018

MadScientist said:
If PS5 isn't being released fall 2019, what the hell are they going to talk about at E3 2019??

They are going to talk about the early 2020 PS5 launch obviously.

Socky · Oct 16, 2018

Gemüsepizza said:
Agreed, I don't think it makes much sense for them to wait until their sales slow down and Microsoft can catch up. Then there is also this sentence in one of their job ads:

This doesn't sound like they want to slowly ride it out. And if you think about it, if Sony manages to launch 12 months before Microsoft, they have already won next-gen. 100%. They would have a 15-20 Mio lead, and thanks to the rise of digital libraries, users will be tied to the Playstation ecosystem like never before. This is an almost historic chance, so what could be worth it to give this up?

Again, lots of new variables this gen, but this is a good point.

BreakAtmo · Oct 16, 2018

Kenzodielocke said:
They could make a third party show like Microsoft did this year.

Microsoft had quite a few first-party titles to announce, Sony's E3 2019 would be far worse than that if we've seen virtually all they have.

The Great Khali · Oct 16, 2018

MadScientist said:
If Sony decides to release fall 2020, what games are going to be released during the 2020 year? Last E3 they only showed 4 main games, barely anything. No PSX this year, because they don't have much to show. If PS5 was releasing late 2020, then they'd need some other games (besides those 4 E3 2018 games) to be teasing and marketing. Them being silent on what games are coming out post 2019 makes me think that the PS5 is going to be released fall 2019, with new PS5 games coming out. If PS5 isn't being released fall 2019, what the hell are they going to talk about at E3 2019??

E3 2019
- Death Steanding Gameplay
- Last of Us 2 Gameplay
- Ghost of Tsushima Gameplay
- Dreams Gameplay (if it doesn't release before E3)
- Medievil Remake Gameplay
- Sly Thieves in Time 4K Remastered
- Puppeteer 4K Remastered
- Demon Souls Remake Announced (Bluepoint)
- Spiderman Expansion Announced
- Ratchet 2 Accounced
- A bunch of 3rd party games (revealed)

No need for PS5 games

Socky · Oct 16, 2018

If PS5 (and NG X2) aren't shown at E3 2019, it's going to be fascinating to see them both get overshadowed by all the third-party NG reveals and teases...

PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Post E3 2018

When will the first 'next gen' console arrive?

H2 2019

H1 2020

H2 2020

H1 2021

H2 2021

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