PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - timing and specification

TheThreadsThatBindUs · Feb 26, 2018

BreakAtmo said:
This is pretty much what I suspected, but I wasn't entirely sure since I'd heard about the Pro having hardware designed to make adding checkerboard rendering to a game easier. I'm glad to hear that work is still being done on reconstruction techniques. When I heard about checkerboard on the Pro, I was thinking the next few years could be valuable as practice for the new boxes in 2019/2020. I was concerned that a lack of implementation on the mid-gen consoles now could have a knock-on effect later, with some devs never having used them before.

Development studios are businesses first and foremost, and so the work of a studios' internal engineering group is always going to be prioritized.

With pretty much every developer having to re-tool their game engines to take advantage of next-gen hardware in the next generational transition, those devs who haven't implemented CBR techniques into their pipeline currently will find that the opportune time to do so.

So just because is seen now, doesn't mean it has any bearing on the future. In the same way, no game dev has implemented inference-based techniques for Anti-Aliasing this gen (despite the hw being more than upto the task); doesn't mean we won't see it next-gen.

Every dev will have a long bucket list of features they're already planning to implement in their engine, but the demands of existing projects going through the studio will always take priority.

StuBurns · Feb 26, 2018

TheThreadsThatBindUs said:
While I agree with the point about diminisihing returns, this example isn't necessarily a good one, since still shots in static lighting conditions don't really show the level improvement in TLOU Part II. Put two trailers of the two games side-by-side and the difference is night-and-day.

But as the post very specifically stated, the comparison was purely in terms of assets.

However, I firmly believe the sentiment of the post. The PS4 was lauded as a very 'logical' design for developers, and sure, it was clearly a vast improvement on the PS3, but it ultimately suffered the same fate in terms of performance. Which is the CPU limited the entire generation. PS4 games are prettier than their XBO counter-parts, sure enough, but this generation has been plagued by compute resources. The Cell might have offered a theoretical benefit beyond the 360's CPU, but the real world results told a different tale. Sony even planned to ship the PS4 with half the RAM, and that's even worse than it initial looks, considering the same amount of that memory would need to be dedicated to the OS.

Sony clearly prioritised graphical performance above all else last time, and that was somewhat understandable, but now with PS5? Not at all. Look at what developers are doing, look at what consumers are playing. I would love Sony to build the PS5 specifically for high end single player experiences, as I like those games, and never play multiplayer games, but it's not what benefits the market the most. Most PS4 games don't look as good as Beyond Two Souls, and that says an awful lot about where the industry is at. Sony first party care about producing the most beautiful games in the industry, that's wonderful, but should a console be built around that at the cost of areas that benefit the software that's driving the industry? I don't think it is.

And if Sony really believe in VR? Trying to run anything at 90Hz is painful enough as it is. As massive multiplayer experience, and simulation games, and procedurally generated software begin to dominate, Sony need to build their platforms accordingly, and as nice as 12TF of GPU performance will make TLoU3 melt faces, it's not going to benefit Battlefield PUBG or whatever generates the most money next-gen.

Andromeda · Feb 26, 2018

Segafreak said:
60fps will never be the standard man.

I bet there's gonna be a mandated performance mode in every next gen game, with dynamic resolution the PS5 Pro will immediately take advantage of every game at launch, no more messing around with patches.

I don't know. Those are the best selling games of 2017 in US:

Call of Duty: WWII (60fps)
NBA 2K18 (60fps)
Destiny 2**
Madden NFL 18 (60fps)
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
Grand Theft Auto V
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands
Star Wars: Battlefront II** (60fps)
Super Mario Odyssey* (60fps)
Mario Kart 8* (60fps)

60fps games are becoming the norm rather than the exception this gen. That's for paid games. Because the trend is similar with the most successful free games on consoles.

StuBurns · Feb 26, 2018

Andromeda said:
I don't know. Those are the best selling games of 2017 in US:

Call of Duty: WWII (60fps)
NBA 2K18 (60fps)
Destiny 2**
Madden NFL 18 (60fps)
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
Grand Theft Auto V
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands
Star Wars: Battlefront II** (60fps)
Super Mario Odyssey* (60fps)
Mario Kart 8* (60fps)

60fps games are becoming the norm rather than the exception this gen. That's for paid games. Because the trend is similar with the most successful free games on consoles.

That was true last generation too though. Mario Kart, WiiSports, CoDs, etc.

TheThreadsThatBindUs · Feb 26, 2018

StuBurns said:
But as the post very specifically stated, the comparison was purely in terms of assets.

However, I firmly believe the sentiment of the post. The PS4 was lauded as a very 'logical' design for developers, and sure, it was clearly a vast improvement on the PS3, but it ultimately suffered the same fate in terms of performance. Which is the CPU limited the entire generation. PS4 games are prettier than their XBO counter-parts, sure enough, but this generation has been plagued by compute resources. The Cell might have offered a theoretical benefit beyond the 360's CPU, but the real world results told a different tale. Sony even planned to ship the PS4 with half the RAM, and that's even worse than it initial looks, considering the same amount of that memory would need to be dedicated to the OS.

Sony clearly prioritised graphical performance above all else last time, and that was somewhat understandable, but now with PS5? Not at all. Look at what developers are doing, look at what consumers are playing. I would love Sony to build the PS5 specifically for high end single player experiences, as I like those games, and never play multiplayer games, but it's not what benefits the market the most. Most PS4 games don't look as good as Beyond Two Souls, and that says an awful lot about where the industry is at. Sony first party care about producing the most beautiful games in the industry, that's wonderful, but should a console be built around that at the cost of areas that benefit the software that's driving the industry? I don't think it is.

And if Sony really believe in VR? Trying to run anything at 90Hz is painful enough as it is. As massive multiplayer experience, and simulation games, and procedurally generated software begin to dominate, Sony need to build their platforms accordingly, and as nice as 12TF of GPU performance will make TLoU3 melt faces, it's not going to benefit Battlefield PUBG or whatever generates the most money next-gen.

When all the most realistic speculation on PS5 points to a 10-12 TFLOPs GPU paired with a 4-8 core / 4 - 16 thread Zen CPU, I really don't understand what you're arguing here?

Sony don't design their consoles for "the best graphics" or "single player games". How on earth did you come to a ridiculous conclusion like that, when the XB1 is essentially exactly the same hardware as the PS4 but with a weaker GPU?

In every console generation, Sony (and pretty much every hardware manufacturer not called Nintendo) have designed a console that puts the greatest amount of CPU, GPU and memory that they can within a silicon and TDP budget in order to hit a target launch price. No console has ever been designed around a certain genre or type of game... nobody does this. What a bizarre thing to think.

Miniature Kaiju · Feb 26, 2018

Andromeda said:
I don't know. Those are the best selling games of 2017 in US:

Call of Duty: WWII (60fps)
NBA 2K18 (60fps)
Destiny 2**
Madden NFL 18 (60fps)
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
Grand Theft Auto V
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands
Star Wars: Battlefront II** (60fps)
Super Mario Odyssey* (60fps)
Mario Kart 8* (60fps)

60fps games are becoming the norm rather than the exception this gen. That's for paid games. Because the trend is similar with the most successful free games on consoles.

More a function of the most popular games being sports and competitive multiplayer games, where higher frame rates is more advantageous and where 60fps has always been much more common.

StuBurns · Feb 26, 2018

TheThreadsThatBindUs said:
When all the most realistic speculation on PS5 points to a 10-12 TFLOPs GPU paired with a 4-8 core / 4 - 16 thread Zen CPU, I really don't understand what you're arguing here?

Sony don't design their consoles for "the best graphics" or "single player games". How on earth did you come to a ridiculous conclusion like that, when the XB1 is essentially exactly the same hardware as the PS4 but with a weaker GPU?

In every console generation, Sony (and pretty much every hardware manufacturer not called Nintendo) have designed a console that puts the greatest amount of CPU, GPU and memory that they can within a silicon and TDP budget in order to hit a target launch price. No console has ever been designed around a certain genre or type of game... nobody does this. What a bizarre thing to think.

Firstly, the XBO's CPU is stronger than the PS4s, and secondly, they doubled their RAM fairly late in the game. They intended to have massively less. So I disagree with your comparison.

As for the general sentiment, the point is it's a balancing act as for what to prioritise, less spent on one area means more can be spent on another. GPU resources are just less important than the other half of the APU, or the memory.

Andromeda · Feb 26, 2018

Miniature Kaiju said:
More a function of the most popular games being sports and competitive multiplayer games, where higher frame rates is more advantageous and where 60fps has always been much more common.

It's not only MP and sports games. There is also a trend in successful single player games with 60fps modes like notably in Mirror's edge, Nioh, Nier, Shadow of the colossus, Wolf 2, Doom, Resident Evil 7 and Hellbade.

StuBurns said:
That was true last generation too though. Mario Kart, WiiSports, CoDs, etc...

Yes but more and more AAA games are 60fps this gen. For instance Battlefield and Metal gear Solid 5 were only 30fps last gen.

StuBurns said:
And MGS2 was 60fps, didn't mean anything for 3 or 4.

UC4 was announced as being 60fps, it still wasn't.

MGS5 had to also run on PS360, they had a lot of room when running the game on the current systems.

Kojima has said Death Stranding will be 60fps, I bet it's not.

MGS5 is running at 992x720 and 20-30fps on PS360 compared to 1080p locked 60fps on PS4. Around 7x more pixels processed on PS4. Compared to the PS3 game, the PS4 game really feels and looks next gen.

StuBurns · Feb 26, 2018

Andromeda said:
Yes but more and more AAA games are 60fps this gen. For instance Battlefield and Metal gear Solid 5 were only 30fps last gen.

And MGS2 was 60fps, didn't mean anything for 3 or 4.

UC4 was announced as being 60fps, it still wasn't.

MGS5 had to also run on PS360, they had a lot of room when running the game on the current systems.

Kojima has said Death Stranding will be 60fps, I bet it's not.

Miniature Kaiju · Feb 26, 2018

TheThreadsThatBindUs said:
In every console generation, Sony (and pretty much every hardware manufacturer not called Nintendo) have designed a console that puts the greatest amount of CPU, GPU and memory that they can within a silicon and TDP budget in order to hit a target launch price. No console has ever been designed around a certain genre or type of game... nobody does this. What a bizarre thing to think.

Folks seem to have really backwards understanding of how games and products are developed.

StuBurns said:
Firstly, the XBO's CPU is stronger than the PS4s,

10% faster clockspeed is virtually insignificant and a reactionary measure to the APU being, overall, weaker.

StuBurns said:
they doubled their RAM fairly late in the game. They intended to have massively less.

Nope. Sony intention was having as much RAM of the fastest kind it was possible at the time. Higher density GDDR5 only became available late, hence the late bump.

StuBurns · Feb 26, 2018

Miniature Kaiju said:
10% faster clockspeed is virtually insignificant and a reactionary measure to the APU being, overall, weaker.

And yet, it's generally resulted in better performance in simulation heavy titles...

Miniature Kaiju said:
Nope. Sony intention was having as much RAM of the fastest kind it was possible at the time. Higher density GDDR5 only became available late, hence the late bump.

Okay, well, Sony claim they did it from late in the day pressure from developers, notably Gearbox, but if you know better, sure.

Miniature Kaiju · Feb 26, 2018

StuBurns said:
Okay, well, Sony claim they did it from late in the day pressure from developers, notably Gearbox, but if you know better, sure.

Cerny himself has stated that they had other options than going GDDR5, like doing a MS and going with 8GB of DDR3 and eSRAM, but it had drawbacks, and we know for a fact that the high density memory modules for GDDR5 only became available fairly close to PS4 production.

That is to say that yup, they probably were asked for 8GB. They were also asked for fast, unified memory. 4GB was the compromise until 8GB became a possibility.

Expy · Feb 26, 2018

Jraphics Horse said:
Sure, running last gen games.
People are advocating they utilise checkerboarding to effectively double the operations per pixel, well 30fps will double that amount again. It'll always be down to developer choice as long as they have that choice.

That's going to continue just like this gen. If devs want to push the graphical boundaries, I expect 30FPS targets for that.

Silencerx98 · Feb 26, 2018

TheThreadsThatBindUs said:
The bolded technically isn't true and is sorta proven by the example you give. It's true that console's being fixed hardware platforms don't have the software driver and API overheads that equivalent PC hardware does, which invariably eats up performance to various extents. The real benefit of consoles is that their APIs expose certain hardware features to developers that simple aren't available on PC because they aren't exposed in the currently implemented version of Direct X.

When desktop graphics card IHVs design their newest GPU microarchitectures around certain features to enable the most efficient use of the GPU hardware, and then those features aren't even exposed in the PC graphics card API (or even if they are, they're not used by devs because Nvidia cards do things differently), then console's by definition can perform more efficiently because those features can be exploited by console devs to make the most efficient use of the hardware—meaning higher hardware utilization on consoles, meaning more of the available GPU performance is exploited.

I suppose this explanation is more accurate, yeah. I wanted to avoid another "consoles can perform much better than equivalent hardware because optimization!!" scenario and I guess some of my points were a bit off.

RoboPlato · Feb 26, 2018

StuBurns said:
And MGS2 was 60fps, didn't mean anything for 3 or 4.

UC4 was announced as being 60fps, it still wasn't.

MGS5 had to also run on PS360, they had a lot of room when running the game on the current systems.

Kojima has said Death Stranding will be 60fps, I bet it's not.

Where has Kojima mentioned DS being 60? The trailers have been 30 so far

I do think we'll see an increase in 60fps games next gen, just as we did with this gen. I think devs that did a 30/60 split for SP and MP will make the jump. I don't expect big multiplatform open world games (stuff like Red Dead, GTA, AC) will make the jump but overall there will be a noticeable increase, even if it is just optional performance modes since those have been well received this gen.

StuBurns · Feb 26, 2018

RoboPlato said:
Where has Kojima mentioned DS being 60? The trailers have been 30 so far

I do think we'll see an increase in 60fps games next gen, just as we did with this gen. I think devs that did a 30/60 split for SP and MP will make the jump. I don't expect big multiplatform open world games (stuff like Red Dead, GTA, AC) will make the jump but overall there will be a noticeable increase, even if it is just optional performance modes since those have been well received this gen.

I've just been googling it, and I can't find where I read, so I may well be misremembering, or I just read it and it wasn't accurate.

I'm not sure about the 30/60 split titles. Gears, sure, but presumably TLoU2 will fall under that, and I could see TLoU3 still being 30. Who knows. I think it's going to be pretty much the same as this generation, more or less. As you say, the sandbox/open world stuff will remain at 30.

Also, there's always the chance that variable frame rates will really take off, in which case, it'll be a grey area all generation I imagine. Launching with unlocked frame rates and 30fps caps for 'normal' TVs will probably be pretty popular.

RoboPlato · Feb 26, 2018

StuBurns said:
I've just been googling it, and I can't find where I read, so I may well be misremembering, or I just read it and it wasn't accurate.

I'm not sure about the 30/60 split titles. Gears, sure, but presumably TLoU2 will fall under that, and I could see TLoU3 still being 30. Who knows. I think it's going to be pretty much the same as this generation, more or less. As you say, the sandbox/open world stuff will remain at 30.

Also, there's always the chance that variable frame rates will really take off, in which case, it'll be a grey area all generation I imagine. Launching with unlocked frame rates and 30fps caps for 'normal' TVs will probably be pretty popular.

VRR could definitely come into play next gen. Even allowing the user to uncap framerate for VRR displays or for benefits on a Pro console boost mode would make sense.

TheThreadsThatBindUs · Feb 26, 2018

StuBurns said:
Firstly, the XBO's CPU is stronger than the PS4s, and secondly, they doubled their RAM fairly late in the game. They intended to have massively less. So I disagree with your comparison.

As for the general sentiment, the point is it's a balancing act as for what to prioritise, less spent on one area means more can be spent on another. GPU resources are just less important than the other half of the APU, or the memory.

Sony originally intended to go with a much stronger 4 core Steamroller CPU as opposed to double the number of less performant jaguar cores. Steamroller, however, wasn't ready. So that throws your whole premise up in smoke.

Also, if you're predicating your argument about Sony "designing the PS4 for linear cinematic, graphical showcase games" purely on the basis of them deciding not to upclock the CPU by less than 10% (which was of course due to manufacturing yields on the APU) then I am honestly baffled.

Sony originally intending to go with 4GB of GDDR5 was about cost and nothing else. They wanted 16 chips of GDDR5. They managed to negotiate the supply a chips with double the density late in the game and so ended up with 8GB, but the original intent was always 16 chips in clamshell mode, so there's literally no way to argue that they weren't putting in the absolute maximum amount of RAM possible; they were merely dependent on available chip densities.

No offense but you clearly have no idea what you're talking about, with respect to your assertions about Sony's motivations for their hardware design. What you're asserting is frankly ridiculous nonsense, with no basis in reality.

Almost every motivation for every engineering decision for the PS4 APU is publicly known and discussed, and none of it has anything to do with designing a console around a certain type of game. Even if that's what they wanted to do, it would be pretty difficult, since CPU and GPU hardware is by definition general purpose, designed by companies like AMD to be able to perform well across a range of different software workloads.

I honestly don't understand what you would even try to push such an ill-conceived narrative, when it can be so easily debunked.

TheThreadsThatBindUs · Feb 26, 2018

Silencerx98 said:
I suppose this explanation is more accurate, yeah. I wanted to avoid another "consoles can perform much better than equivalent hardware because optimization!!" scenario and I guess some of my points were a bit off.

I mean your overall point about people misunderstanding the term optimization is still very much correct and I agree with you.

People often think that optimization today still means, console developers "coding to the metal" using assembly language and all the crazy software tricks and voodoo that devs like Naughty Dog and SSM did on the PS4.

Clearly, that's not even remotely true anymore. But the additional performance that devs can get out of console hardware does exist, but isn't purely a result of consoles having lower API overheads anymore. more so its the fixed hardware spec. meaning that devs can take better advantage of the hardware through the additional features exposed in the graphics/programming API.

SharpX68K · Feb 28, 2018

There's 'No Need' for PS5 Until 2020: Analyst

If you were expecting a PlayStation 5 release date any time soon, you can rest easy. Well, at least according to NPD analyst Mat Piscatella. He stated that Sony's PS4 and PS4 Pro successor isn't due till 2020.

"2020 is what I have in my forecast. The data suggest there's no need to do it earlier. But I've been surprised before so I'm as interested in this as anyone," Piscatella said in conversation with Gamingbolt.

"Hardware units are mainly driven by content and pricing strategies. I'm interested in seeing how the PS4's price point changes over the year both in base price as well as in promotional pricing," he said. "I do expect the PS4 to have another great year of sales, but I do expect it to be down versus 2018."

https://gadgets.ndtv.com/games/news/ps5-release-date-2020-sony-npd-1817742

https://gamingbolt.com/ps5-forecast...-great-in-2019-but-down-from-2018-npd-analyst

In line with most other expectations.

halcali · Feb 28, 2018

2020 is going to come hard and fast... Along with 5G and Final Fantasy VII Remake (probably). =p

Imitation Of Life · Feb 28, 2018

StuBurns said:
And MGS2 was 60fps, didn't mean anything for 3 or 4.

UC4 was announced as being 60fps, it still wasn't.

MGS5 had to also run on PS360, they had a lot of room when running the game on the current systems.

Kojima has said Death Stranding will be 60fps, I bet it's not.

It will be 60fps after the PS5 patch! Also when did he say that?

2Blackcats · Feb 28, 2018

SharpX68K said:
https://gadgets.ndtv.com/games/news/ps5-release-date-2020-sony-npd-1817742

https://gamingbolt.com/ps5-forecast...-great-in-2019-but-down-from-2018-npd-analyst

In line with most other expectations.

It's a good point about pricing. Will be interesting to see what Sony do, especially with the Pro.

Imitation Of Life · Feb 28, 2018

halcali said:
2020 is going to come hard and fast... Along with 5G and Final Fantasy VII Remake (probably). =p

I wouldn't mind to be honest. Might save it from being a tech mess like FFXV is on console.

Silencerx98 · Feb 28, 2018

SharpX68K said:
https://gadgets.ndtv.com/games/news/ps5-release-date-2020-sony-npd-1817742

https://gamingbolt.com/ps5-forecast...-great-in-2019-but-down-from-2018-npd-analyst

In line with most other expectations.

The analyst in the source actually has an account here, BTW. He usually hangs around sales threads :P

Number9 · Feb 28, 2018

2020 makes sense. TLOU Part II in 2019, and they might kick off the new gen with a sequel to Horizon in 2020.

Intersect · Feb 28, 2018

SharpX68K said:
https://gadgets.ndtv.com/games/news/ps5-release-date-2020-sony-npd-1817742

https://gamingbolt.com/ps5-forecast...-great-in-2019-but-down-from-2018-npd-analyst

In line with most other expectations.

There has been confusion, I Think, because there are new PS4 refreshes coming Holiday 2018 using GDDR6 but a PS5 should release when an incompatible AMD GPU is released. Three weeks ago AMD released a new GPU roadmap with a Next Generation GPU starting 2020 on 7nm+.

From about 2011 through Navi (2018), AMD GPUs have been GCN. Sony starting with the Pro has a GPU core that is Vanilla 2013 PS4 GCN but has incorporated features from Polaris and two from Vega that are essentially register upgrades whose use is optional so that the Pro continues to be compatible. Same should happen with the Holiday 2018 PS4s with more features out of Vega registers and memory controller.

From 2020 a new Generation GPU will be available with a massive increase in performance/watt. So a PS5 will be 2021 if the two year schedule between refreshes continues. 2019 PS4 refreshes selling Holiday 2018 then two years later a PS5 selling Holiday 2020.

M.Bluth · Feb 28, 2018

Intersect said:
There has been confusion, I Think, because there are new PS4 refreshes coming Holiday 2018 using GDDR6

Come again...?

Gamer17 · Feb 28, 2018

Intersect said:
There has been confusion, I Think, because there are new PS4 refreshes coming Holiday 2018 using GDDR6 but a PS5 should release when an incompatible AMD GPU is released. Three weeks ago AMD released a new GPU roadmap with a Next Generation GPU starting 2020 on 7nm+.

when did this happen?

Intersect · Feb 28, 2018

M.Bluth said:
Come again...?

1) Micron GDDR6 slide showing Game Consoles using GDDR6 by ~late 2018 (Found by SHIN) Current PS4s use GDDR5.
2) efficientgaming .eu SRI page 11 publishing new power caps for game consoles in 2019. 90% of the consoles sold in 2019 have to comply with the new power caps which in the case of the UHD Media game console is impossible without a significant update. Only 10% of the consoles sold in 2019 can be the 2016 PS4 design. PS4 Pro is a different animal if it is considered the UHD Gaming Console as it complies with the power caps, this leads to confusion as to what if anything new is coming for the UHD Gaming Console.

Direct hardware compatibility should not be possible but a combination of hardware and software emulation should insure the PS5 has backward compatibility with the PS4.

Black-_-Hornet · Feb 28, 2018

Andromeda said:
I don't know. Those are the best selling games of 2017 in US:

Call of Duty: WWII (60fps)
NBA 2K18 (60fps)
Destiny 2**
Madden NFL 18 (60fps)
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
Grand Theft Auto V
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands
Star Wars: Battlefront II** (60fps)
Super Mario Odyssey* (60fps)
Mario Kart 8* (60fps)

60fps games are becoming the norm rather than the exception this gen. That's for paid games. Because the trend is similar with the most successful free games on consoles.

As long as the average consumer doesn't' care and sometimes don't even notice 60fps Sony doesn't have to make maintaining 60fps across the board there end all be all. We hardcore gamers notice and care about that stuff but casuals don't. I think those games being 60fps was the devs call because it was achievable. Sony will probably go eye candy over CPU performance again with the PS5. Look how many consoles the company is selling with the PS4's lackluster CPU.

BitsandBytes · Feb 28, 2018

I just did a quick check of all four console iterations and none use Micron RAM?

One S: Samsung GDDR3
One X: SK Hynix GDDR5
PS4: Samsung GDDR5
PS4 Pro: Samsung GDDR5

Unless sometime before February 2017 Micron secured a RAM contract for a future console or refresh?

Intersect · Feb 28, 2018

BitsandBytes said:
I just did a quick check of all four console iterations and none use Micron RAM?

One S: Samsung GDDR3
One X: SK Hynix GDDR5
PS4: Samsung GDDR5
PS4 Pro: Samsung GDDR5

Unless sometime before February 2017 Micron secured a RAM contract for a future console or refresh?

The Micron slide does not state that Sony is using Micron GDDR6 just that GDDR6 will be in game consoles by ~late 2018. Samsung and Micron have both announced that they are ramping production for GDDR6 1H2018 for essentially the same reasons, 8k and VR. 8K can be 4K/eye VR. REQUIRES/required for HDMI 2.1

Kinda makes sense that Samsung can't announce GDDR6 in Sony game consoles if they have a contract with Sony. Micron could announce this if they don't have a contract to point out GDDR6 is the next holy grail in memory.

As for the question of why AMD would want to design their own GDDR6 memory controller rather than license one, I think that comes down to AMD thinking long-term. It will be more expensive up front to design their own controller, but AMD will be able to more fully integrate it and tune it to work with their graphics cards such that it can be more power efficient. Also, having their own GDDR6 memory controller means they can use it in other areas such as their APUs and SoCs offered through their Semi Custom Business Unit (e.g. the SoCs used in gaming consoles).

Edit: The majority of Infinity fabric is in the Memory controller. New memory controller supporting GDDR6 should support Infinity fabric and DRM with only register changes in the GPU used as a codec necessary for a TEE to support SL3000 for UHD Blu-ray.

BitsandBytes · Feb 28, 2018

Intersect said:
The Micron slide does not state that Sony is using Micron GDDR6 just that GDDR6 will be in game consoles by ~late 2018. Samsung and Micron have both announced that they are ramping production for GDDR6 1H2018 for essentially the same reasons, 8k and VR. 8K can be 4K/eye VR.

I wasn't suggesting Sony would be using Micron!? I'm more trying to work out if this PP presentation is a pitch to try and win a RAM contract for a console, a proud 'show off' because they did or a general overview of the near future RAM situation.

Intersect · Feb 28, 2018

BitsandBytes said:
I wasn't suggesting Sony would be using Micron!? I'm more trying to work out if this PP presentation is a pitch to try and win a RAM contract for a console, a proud 'show off' because they did or a general overview of the near future RAM situation.

Kinda makes sense that Samsung can't announce GDDR6 in Sony game consoles if they have a contract with Sony. Micron could announce this if they don't have a contract to point out GDDR6 is the next holy grail in memory being used in Game Consoles that will be providing a lower cost entry point for VR which is going to grow by 150%/year..

TheThreadsThatBindUs · Feb 28, 2018

Intersect's "matter-of-fact" assertions about new PS4 revision(s) coming in 2018/2019 should be taken with a HUGE grain of sodium chloride.

Especially since they're based on a vague statement about "consoles" being supplied GDDR6 RAM and that notorious efficientgaming.eu SRT presentation that I and and many others have argued with him until we're blue in the face that the presentation has nothing to do with new hardware and only concerns itself with new power cap requirements over the next few years.

The rest is his own wild conjecture and speculation and shouldn't be taken as fact at all.

Also, I'm not sure Intersect even understands what Infinity Fabric even is.

M.Bluth · Feb 28, 2018

Intersect said:
1) Micron GDDR6 slide showing Game Consoles using GDDR6 by ~late 2018 (Found by SHIN) Current PS4s use GDDR5.
2) efficientgaming .eu SRI page 11 publishing new power caps for game consoles in 2019. 90% of the consoles sold in 2019 have to comply with the new power caps which in the case of the UHD Media game console is impossible without a significant update. Only 10% of the consoles sold in 2019 can be the 2016 PS4 design. PS4 Pro is a different animal if it is considered the UHD Gaming Console as it complies with the power caps, this leads to confusion as to what if anything new is coming for the UHD Gaming Console.

Direct hardware compatibility should not be possible but a combination of hardware and software emulation should insure the PS5 has backward compatibility with the PS4.

I mean, that slide is confusing enough and says very little by the fact that it groups GDDR5x with GDDR6 and I don't know what sort of scale is being used.
As for the efficientgaming thingy, skimming through it, I see that the "SRI is neither legally binding nor co-regulation," add to that the fact that the listed power caps do not include a power cap for the console while playing games.
A quick Google search suggests that both the PS4 Pro and the Slim already fall within those caps or thereabouts...

RogerL · Feb 28, 2018

Intersect said:

I think that Sony is rather eager to get the PS5 out, every performance loss against Xbox One X hurts even if the X is more expensive.

So we have a process shrink to 7nm ready 2018 but you think Sony would wait for 7+?
I would be less surprised with PS5 release 2018 than 2020 (my guess is still 2019)

Intersect · Feb 28, 2018

M.Bluth said:
I mean, that slide is confusing enough and says very little by the fact that it groups GDDR5x with GDDR6 and I don't know what sort of scale is being used.
As for the efficientgaming thingy, skimming through it, I see that the "SRI is neither legally binding nor co-regulation," add to that the fact that the listed power caps do not include a power cap for the console while playing games.
A quick Google search suggests that both the PS4 Pro and the Slim already fall within those caps or thereabouts...

The Power Caps published are provided by "stakeholders"; I.E., Sony has to comply with the Power Cap Sony publishes. The Tier 4 Media Power caps for the UHD Media console can not be supported with the PS4 SLIM design. The PS4 slim also can't support/has no power cap for UHD media while the 2019 UHD Media console does and it's the same for HD and UHD media which even the Pro can't do.

In the SRI it's mentioned that it's not possible to use a Gameplay power cap so Navigation and Media power is used.

Yes, the SRI is a voluntary agreement between Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo with the EU and includes compliance testing by the "Stakeholders" and an independent firm that have to be completed by Feb 28 of the following year. If they fail compliance testing both the Power caps and 90% sold, there is no mention of significant consequences. But you have to understand that this agreement goes back to 2009 when the EU was talking about implementing by law power caps for Media and Game. The EU was convinced by mainly Sony to settle for a voluntary compliance with efforts to reduce power use as technology allows. If this voluntary agreement is voided the implication is that the EU will want a LAW forcing power cap compliance.

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#4386
@Intersect's "matter-of-fact" assertions about new PS4 revision(s) coming in 2018/2019 should be taken with a HUGE grain of sodium chloride.

Especially since they're based on a vague statement about "consoles" being supplied GDDR6 RAM and that notorious efficientgaming.eu SRT presentation that I and and many others have argued with him until we're blue in the face that the presentation has nothing to do with new hardware and only concerns itself with new power cap requirements over the next few years.

The rest is his own wild conjecture and speculation and shouldn't be taken as fact at all.

Also, I'm not sure @Intersect even understands what Infinity Fabric even is.

I fail to understand why you keep having a problem with the SRI? Sony has to comply with the power caps that Sony publishes with the EU. The Tier 4 power cap is for ONLY the YEAR 2019 not the next few year. If no new console is released then the same console will obviously comply with the same power caps.

Testing for compliance is by Feb 28 of the following year. There is no reason for Sony to publish something that is not true. The Power cap published by Sony for the UHD Media console can not be supported with anything Sony has previously released....it's a new design to meet what Sony has already tested and they published the power it uses for Media and Navigation modes. I can't make it any simpler and yes it pretty strongly confirms a new console refresh for 2019.

It does not confirm a PS5 and I started in this thread stating that the refreshes would be PS4s but eventually bowed to pressure and stated that a Ryzen CPU might make it a PS5. I take that back and agree that a PS5 is likely a Holiday 2020 or later console not using a GCN GPU.

I've read the Infinity Fabric and GEN-Z protocol papers, Infinity Fabric has to support GEN-Z so that gives a greater understanding than the skimpy papers on Infinity Fabric currently available. Infinity Fabric has to support AMD encryption which was released in a 2015 whitepaper and I believe in some APUs in 2016 and Ryzen in 2017 along with Infinity Fabric. AMD SME & SEV encryption is a required subset of Infinity fabric. Externally Infinity fabric is a upgrade to Hypertransport but to support SME and SEV across Ethernet, PCIe, and Memory (NoC crossbar is a different animal) a new IOMMU (HSA compliant) memory controller must be used. With a new GDDR6 memory controller, it could include a subset of Infinity fabric or the entirety.

FYI GEN-Z is a set of open source universal protocol STANDARDS for communication across multiple external communication bus/links; Ethernet, PCIe and more. Component types mentioned below are the same HSA/HSAIL processors mentioned by AMD. "split memory controller and media controller paradigm" confirms it's tied to the HSA IOMMU controller also mentioned by AMD in 2012 but in 2012 media was not part of HSA/HSAIL so the split memory and media controller.

Gen-Z uses a memory-semantic (read-write) protocol that enables multiple component types to efficiently communicate. Component types include 5 processors, memory, storage, I/O, FPGA, GPU, GPGPU, DSP, etc. Universal communications simplifies component design and solution composition making Gen-Z applicable to multiple solution types including clients (mobility, mobile, desktops / workstations), servers, storage, embedded, and message based communications.
Messaging—Gen-Z supports multiple messaging solutions such as a traditional network stack using an emulated Ethernet NIC (eNIC), messaging with existing networks using gateway (e.g., a Gen-Z-to-Ethernet gateway), and ultra-low-latency messaging (high-performance computing, enterprise, and hyperscale market segments).
Gen-Z uses a split memory controller and media controller paradigm that hides microarchitecture details and idiosyncrasies. The split-controller model breaks the processor-memory interlock.
o Processor memory controller issues high-level packets—reads, writes, atomics, large data movement buffer requests, etc.
o Media controller services high-level packets and performs media-specific services and management.
o Split controller paradigm enables memory media independence (supports volatile and non-volatile media technologies). Solutions can incorporate and evolve the memory media and ensure interoperability. Media controllers can also incorporate performance acceleration techniques (prefetch, caching, etc.) to mitigate media-specific access

I'd guess this is ALSO a standard for cloud processing (Game and Media too) to supplement low power clients like Phones and Tablets

M.Bluth · Feb 28, 2018

Intersect said:
The Power Caps published are provided by "stakeholders"; I.E., Sony has to comply with the Power Cap Sony publishes. The Tier 4 Media Power caps for the UHD Media console can not be supported with the PS4 SLIM design. The PS4 slim also can't support/has no power cap for UHD media while the 2019 UHD Media console does and it's the same for HD and UHD media which even the Pro can't do.

In the SRI it's mentioned that it's not possible to use a Gameplay power cap so Navigation and Media power is used.

Yes, the SRI is a voluntary agreement between Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo with the EU and includes compliance testing by the "Stakeholders" and an independent firm that have to be completed by Feb 28 of the following year. If they fail compliance testing both the Power caps and 90% sold, there is no mention of significant consequences. But you have to understand that this agreement goes back to 2009 when the EU was talking about implementing by law power caps for Media and Game. The EU was convinced by mainly Sony to settle for a voluntary compliance with efforts to reduce power use as technology allows. If this voluntary agreement is voided the implication is that the EU will want a LAW forcing power cap compliance.

What are you on about? The PS4 Slim isn't a UHD Media device, first of all because it's not a ultra HD device in the first place, and second of all, it would fall under the UHD Gaming cap if it did.
And regardless, both it and the Pro fall within the caps that are effective Jan 1st 2019 in their respective categories.

Intersect · Feb 28, 2018

M.Bluth said:
What are you on about? The PS4 Slim isn't a UHD Media device, first of all because it's not a ultra HD device in the first place, and second of all, it would fall under the UHD Gaming cap if it did.
And regardless, both it and the Pro fall within the caps that are effective Jan 1st 2019 in their respective categories.

There you have it: Sony is stating that they have a UHD Media console that supports both HD and UHD media with 60 watts, the Slim only supports HD media with 70 watts and according to the SRI rules will not be sold beyond 10% of the EU market seen in 2019.

There are definition changes in the SRI with all having to fit in the new definitions.
1) HD (XB1)
2) UHD Media (XB1 S) Currently PS4 slim and older have the capability to support 1080P + HDR media which is a UHD Media mode but according to the definition below is not now considered UHD for media or gaming. The SLIM can not support a 4K IPTV stream using HEVC
3) UHD Gaming (XB1X and PS4 Pro) These are both UHD Media and Gaming

2.2 General Definitions
A. Ultra-High-Definition Console: Game Consoles having potential of rendering video output with resolutions greater or equal to 4K (3840 pixels x 2160 lines) in addition to capability defined for High Definition Console. Ultra-High-Definition (UHD) Consoles are further divided into two subgroups based on whether they are capable of UHD video resolutions for media and for gaming.
a. UHD media capable Console: Game Consoles having potential of rendering video output with resolutions greater or equal to 4K (3840 pixels x 2160 lines) in addition to capability defined for High Definition Console in media mode only.
b. UHD gaming capable Console: Game Consoles having potential of rendering video output with resolutions greater or equal to 4K (3840 pixels x 2160 lines) in addition to capability defined for High Definition Console in media and gaming mode.

B. High Definition Console: Game Consoles capable of rendering High Definition (HD) video output with resolutions greater or equal to 720p (1280 pixels x 720 lines), 1080i

M.Bluth · Feb 28, 2018

Intersect said:
There you have it: Sony is stating that they have a UHD Media console that supports both HD and UHD media with 60 watts, the Slim only supports HD media with 70 watts and according to the SRI rules will not be sold beyond 10% of the EU market seen in 2019.

No, they're not. Nothing says they have such a product coming. Also, the power caps aren't suddenly limited to Sony hardware so we could infer such a thing.
Slim falls under HD media/gaming and Pro falls under UHD. Both, as far as I can tell, consume power within an acceptable range of those caps.
Again, there's nothing in this that says companies HAVE to ship products that strictly adhere to those caps, anyway. Not to mention that the methods for testing whether a product is compliant might favor results that are within those caps.

I mean, could there be a refresh for both the Slim and the Pro so they could cut costs and thus the MSRP, which might also involve small changes that also bring down power consumption a bit? Sure...
But assuming that it's happening and involves a new type of memory based on a vague powerpoint slide that was also used earlier to claim it actually referred to next-gen consoles coming this year and not redesigns as well as a non-legally binding, self-regulatory initiative is... Well, silly.

2Blackcats · Feb 28, 2018

RogerL said:
I think that Sony is rather eager to get the PS5 out, every performance loss against Xbox One X hurts even if the X is more expensive.

So we have a process shrink to 7nm ready 2018 but you think Sony would wait for 7+?
I would be less surprised with PS5 release 2018 than 2020 (my guess is still 2019)

Hurt?

I think Sony must be delighted with the current situation. They are at a power and services disadvantage and still no one gives a shit.

SharpX68K · Feb 28, 2018

Silencerx98 said:
The analyst in the source actually has an account here, BTW. He usually hangs around sales threads :P

Cool, I had no idea.

RogerL · Feb 28, 2018

2Blackcats said:
Hurt?

I think Sony must be delighted with the current situation. They are at a power and services disadvantage and still no one gives a shit.

"Dripping water hollows out stone, not through force but through persistence."

If every game released is reviewed to be better on XBox One X it WILL change minds.

XBox One X is more expensive, but...
XBox One X has fewer exclusives, but...
I currently see no reason for me to buy a XBox One X, but...

I can't see Sony letting this go on without challenge for three years (2020), two years is plenty (2019), one year is still a whole year (2018).

Lets play another game, when would Microsoft release their next console? When can they release the earliest?

XBox One Y, 2019, only two years after premier console at a premier price? No, I can't see that happening.
XBox One Y, 2020, acceptable
XBox One Y, 2021, definitely

So Sony releasing 2018 would see 2-3 years on top, a 2019 release 1-2 years, 2020 a single year...
What if Microsoft makes a price competitive release this time?

VirtuaRacer · Feb 28, 2018

RogerL said:
I can't see Sony letting this go on without challenge for three years (2020), two years is plenty (2019), one year is still a whole year (2018).

The problem with this logic is, the longer this generation rumbles on, the less attractive these mid-gen refreshes appear to the consumer, because they know something far more powerful is around the corner.

Sony for their part will be happy to have the more powerful base model that is selling more units than their direct competitor. So for the forseable, as Shawn Layden said at PSX 2017 in reply to a question about PS4 Pro: "we're going to roll with it."

Dave. · Feb 28, 2018

Today we hear PS+ will cease adding PS3 and Vita games early 2019, imho giving considerable weight to Fall 2019 PS5 release speculation.

Deleted member 5764 · Feb 28, 2018

Dave. said:
Today we hear PS+ will cease adding PS3 and Vita games early 2019, imho giving considerable weight to Fall 2019 PS5 release speculation.

I dunno about "considerable weight", but it could be viewed as a speculative puzzle piece. That their only other statement is about us only getting 2 PS4 games and nothing else from that point on seems rather harsh.

2Blackcats · Feb 28, 2018

RogerL said:
"Dripping water hollows out stone, not through force but through persistence."

If every game released is reviewed to be better on XBox One X it WILL change minds.

XBox One X is more expensive, but...

XBox One X has fewer exclusives, but...

I currently see no reason for me to buy a XBox One X, but...

I can't see Sony letting this go on without challenge for three years (2020), two years is plenty (2019), one year is still a whole year (2018).

Lets play another game, when would Microsoft release their next console? When can they release the earliest?

XBox One Y, 2019, only two years after premier console at a premier price? No, I can't see that happening.

XBox One Y, 2020, acceptable

XBox One Y, 2021, definitely

So Sony releasing 2018 would see 2-3 years on top, a 2019 release 1-2 years, 2020 a single year...
What if Microsoft makes a price competitive release this time?

Why would those games review better on xbox?

I don't think reviewers are adding on extra points for mid gen bonus performance while assuming buyers are going to be playing on the mid gen refresh editions.

At least I haven't seen them do it.

I do think releasing in 2019 would be a great strategy for Sony but only if the hardware is ready.

Until I see some evidence that says otherwise Sony are operating in a vacuum as far as dedicated home consoles go. I don't see the X making much difference (just like the Pro before that).

Deleted member 18161 · Feb 28, 2018

Andromeda said:
I don't know. Those are the best selling games of 2017 in US:

Call of Duty: WWII (60fps)
NBA 2K18 (60fps)
Destiny 2**
Madden NFL 18 (60fps)
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
Grand Theft Auto V
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands
Star Wars: Battlefront II** (60fps)
Super Mario Odyssey* (60fps)
Mario Kart 8* (60fps)

60fps games are becoming the norm rather than the exception this gen. That's for paid games. Because the trend is similar with the most successful free games on consoles.

I used to think 60fps games would never be standard too (third parties pushing visuals for marketing blah blah) but we have a lot of them this gen already including graphical showcases like the Battlefront games.

There's also the sheer computational leap of Ryzen over Jaguar, something we never had going from PS3 to PS4. Getting 60fps on a PC with a GTX 1060 / Ryzen CPU is already pretty easy, now imagine a 12tflop GPU paired with a Ryzen CPU.

PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - timing and specification

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