I think your overall point (that there is an inherent bias for certain genres in GOTY voting, and perhaps against Japanese games) is accurate, but I think you're stretching things by including Zelda here. It's (now) an open world 3D action adventure game, which is absolutely a genre popular among western GOTY voters (though it admittedly lacks the storytelling emphasis prevalent elsewhere in the genre). It's also one of the most prestigious IPs in all of gaming. "Only" two consensus GOTYs for 3D Zelda is pretty substantial given that only seven of them have ever been made, and every single one of them has featured prominently on GOTY lists. Even Skyward Sword, a game that felt deeply antiquated in 2011, is regularly cited as the worst mainline Zelda game, and launched in a year with competition that included Skyrim and Dark Souls, still managed to earn GOTY from a number of major outlets. Further to this, TOTK is a direct sequel to a game that dominated GOTY voting, and has been more or less the default #1 on GOAT lists for years now.
It's only a stretch if you think that I'm arguing for Zelda being at a massive disadantage. I'm not stupid, of course I realise that Zelda is a far bigger franchise than most (especially, as you say, now that it's moved to an open-world style). However, right now, it is not the
biggest franchise of the year, and as such is not the guaranteed frontrunner that people assumed it would be 6 months ago. That's all that myself and the other poster - before being mocked with 'Niche-Man' replies - were, and are, saying. That, historically, games similar to BG3 are at more of a statistical advantage when it comes to winning these 'big awards' than others, including Zelda.
Same goes for, frankly, every other game on the nominee list. Spider-Man 2 is massive but it
is unironically 'Niche-Man' when it comes to the awards season. Super Mario Wonder is a 2D platformer and competing directly against a much bigger sibling in the form of Zelda. Resident Evil 4 is a remake and a horror title; both of which rarely see much attention. Alan Wake 2 is definitely rising up the ranks but it's still a relatively small title for multiple reasons. Despite that, they are all still massive games... hence the GOTY nominations.
I also think it's a reach to place BG3 in the same genre as Skyrim or The Witcher 3. Those games have about as much in common with TOTK as they do BG3.
I've explained multiple times how similar they are. Yes, BG3 is 'technically' in a different genre but the fundamentals - especially in regards to why people like these titles - are very much the same. From the in-depth character growth, to the sense of exploration and discovery in its worlds, to the dark-ish fantasy settings, to the cinematic camera system for dialogue; the vast majority of the praise I see for BG3 relates to how it improves and expands on exactly those elements.
Essentially, pretending like they're not part of the same lineage just feels like trying to defend the game
purely because of this perception that saying this:
and this:
share a few similarities is a 'bad thing.' If I were using these comparisons to actively criticise another game - see the many Starfield/BG3 comparisons in this and other threads - then nobody would care and it'd be generally agreed upon that they're part of the same genre/family of genres. But because I'm being perceived as negative here, it's the case that none of these games are in any way similar and that BG3 stands almost totally alone.
And I must reiterate, I am not being negative here. I'm really not. It's seriously amazing how Larian has married the previously niche CRPG genre with modern WRPG staples to produce something that's accessible whilst still keeping the 'heart' of what people love about CRPGs. Like Elden Ring and BotW before it, BG3 shows how, even if very few of the ingredients to your game are truly 'new', the way you use those ingredients is what truly matter.
Assuming BG3 wins the bulk of awards as expected, I think it has more to do with how phenomenally successful it's been than it does with genre bias, along with how much TOTK borrows from BOTW (and perhaps also how dated TOTK necessarily is in terms of presentation and performance).
It can be both. Remember, the context of this is a bunch of mocking 'Niche-Man' (ironically, Spider-Man 2 is an even bigger underdog than Nintendo in this year's race) replies to an innocuous post that simply stated that BG3 has more going for it than TotK in terms of genre, developer, and so on. That doesn't mean BG3 doesn't deserve its success; it just means that, yes, the game has more going for it at the moment than other titles do. There's no need to look at things in such a black-and-white manner. Something can deserve its success whilst still enjoying the benefits of being part of something that people generally enjoy.
The only bias I can see is a story bias not Nintendo specific. Nintendo does not focus on story in their games and if you look at GOTY winners most have a good story (Elden Ring less so story more so lore). If TOTK had a better told story I think it would have more of a chance, but it's just not a priority for them.
Then you agree with me that TotK is at a disadvantage compared to BG3 because of its lesser story. That's literally all this is about.