After this week, what do you think the future of Xbox will be?
- Thread starter Typhon
- Start date
They will effectively become a larger Activision.
Hardware will be the rumoured handheld and OEM PC hybrids but all will be effectively PCs with "xbox" branding and interfaces, without any of the usual console anti-jailbreak lockdowns that keep people from "interfering".
Game Pass is a tricky one. You either go all in on it or put an end to it. It's apparently not going anywhere right now and the all-in strategy is effectively a $200 billion roll of the dice - it either breaks through and becomes viable bringing in sufficient profit over time or it risks bringing the whole lot crashing down. My guess is the harsh reality that it doesn't make sense sets in and it's morphed into something a lot less damaging to sales, particularly day 1 sales.
Hardware will be the rumoured handheld and OEM PC hybrids but all will be effectively PCs with "xbox" branding and interfaces, without any of the usual console anti-jailbreak lockdowns that keep people from "interfering".
Game Pass is a tricky one. You either go all in on it or put an end to it. It's apparently not going anywhere right now and the all-in strategy is effectively a $200 billion roll of the dice - it either breaks through and becomes viable bringing in sufficient profit over time or it risks bringing the whole lot crashing down. My guess is the harsh reality that it doesn't make sense sets in and it's morphed into something a lot less damaging to sales, particularly day 1 sales.
It's not likely but also not entirely out of the question that it could happen. They were sat on money that wasn't working for them and believed they got a steal buying ABK for what they did (certainly at the time they initiated things when the industry was still riding high on the Covid bump). If they can't make the subscription side of things happen they may see that whole side of the business as not compatible enough with the wider MS.
Again, not necessarily true - they might well have been worth keeping on as "money makers", but at that point they might not have offered the kinds of prospects of making enough money and became easy targets for cost-saving culling.
That image has been rubbished as many times as it's been posted. If you want to believe in a fantasy land version of reality that supports your feels then keep using it. Otherwise, look elsewhere for a better source.First, gaming is a growing business, by a lot. It's just the console industry specifically that's flat to declining
The flaw in that thinking is that the surface laptops aren't sold at a loss.
MS has been losing somewhere in the $100-200 range per Xbox Series system sold.
Probably to become the largest 3rd party dev on the market until they can figure out how to stream their games easily to a global market. Then we will see the rebranding of the GamePass app for TVs.
If Microsoft can't break the console barrier, and get their games to a much wider audience, and into every living room around the world, we'll see a continual downsizing of their games division.
If Microsoft can't break the console barrier, and get their games to a much wider audience, and into every living room around the world, we'll see a continual downsizing of their games division.
Right, and when many of us tried to argue amount of players don't tell the whole story it always led to some interesting debates.
Seems MS needs a lil more than just amount of players now.
Whatever it is they'll stumble into it it by making short sighted decisions.
Remember when they had a chance at being THE PC gaming storefront but instead on focusing on long term goals and growing the platform with features, community tools, etc like Steam did (and with their ability to add these at the OS level even!), they just went full on greedy and started making only hurdles that people needed to cross in order to be a part of the ecosystem.
Third party publisher sounds about right though.
Remember when they had a chance at being THE PC gaming storefront but instead on focusing on long term goals and growing the platform with features, community tools, etc like Steam did (and with their ability to add these at the OS level even!), they just went full on greedy and started making only hurdles that people needed to cross in order to be a part of the ecosystem.
Third party publisher sounds about right though.
People don't even seem to know Microsoft's history with permatemp employees.
I can't seem to understand how people are praying for MS to leave the gaming business.
Competition is good!!!
There are so many spaces in gaming MS has pushed Sony (in some cases Nintendo). Especially in the online space.
Are people forgetting the PS3 era of shitty online, party chat, lack of friends features? If MS didn't offer those on the 360, Sony wouldn't even think of doing it.
Also, everyone saying they're gonna go the Sega route. Sega never a had 3 trillion dollar backing.
This very common amongst the Oil and Gas industry.
Competition is good!!!
There are so many spaces in gaming MS has pushed Sony (in some cases Nintendo). Especially in the online space.
Are people forgetting the PS3 era of shitty online, party chat, lack of friends features? If MS didn't offer those on the 360, Sony wouldn't even think of doing it.
Also, everyone saying they're gonna go the Sega route. Sega never a had 3 trillion dollar backing.
This very common amongst the Oil and Gas industry.
Not telling the whole story has been their issue for a long ass time.
I don't think that's why they were shut down? I mean I don't know why they were shut down but then again you don't either
Voted third party but I don't think it will be quite that clear cut. I think they will become multiplatform for most titles & still have a console & a streaming device eventually. Gamepass will stick around but transition to be more like how film releases don't come to streaming services immediately. Big games will be a standalone purchase at first and then come to gamepass a few months later.
The way they handle Call of Duty this year will answer everything I think.
The way they handle Call of Duty this year will answer everything I think.
Of course, we can pretend like their management has been competent through all of this.
They'll try another hardware device. It won't work out as they won't make the necessary investments in hardware tech and they'll end up as a third party. Xcloud will never leave beta and get the knife first as there simply isn't a profitable business plan for it. PC and mobile stores will limp along since they're digital only and this are comparatively cheap to run.
What does that even mean lmao
OK they're sacking loads of people, closing studios and console sales have collapsed but then so are their competitors, this seems like a console market wide problem
This assumes that the Xbox is still "competition" for Nintendo and Sony right now, and it doesn't appear that's the case. In most of the world no one knows what an Xbox even is. In the US the platform is getting outsold by 5:1 margins over the last few quarters. The series S/X is a failed platform.
Hey remember when online multiplayer was free? Glad Xbox came along and innovated paying for it.
This should be obvious, but divisions with infinite funding don't go on firing sprees of thousands of people and closing studios. Xbox is in "profitability" mode right now and the hardware is a money pit.
Take it however you want.
Ah yes, their problems are everyone's problems and XB has made all the right moves?
I think they will eventually become mainly 3rd party, maybe not for another generation or so, and I'm sure they will still have some kind of hardware themselves. Gamepass is probably going to have to change in some way eventually as well.
Xbox's future "exists off of their own hardware." :)
No but seriously, I think it's going third party*, but still keeping hardware around at least for the next generation. The difference will be they stop subsidizing the Xbox and keep it profitable from day one, focus on core markets, and will move to a more niche space rather than trying to directly compete with Playstation.
Like the next Xbox will be powerful, but it won't be cheap. Basically it will be for the Xbox diehards and a few who want the "most powerful console," assuming Microsoft even cares to keep that crown. And then maybe the Series S gets phased out for a handheld next gen (again sold at a profit day one).
No but seriously, I think it's going third party*, but still keeping hardware around at least for the next generation. The difference will be they stop subsidizing the Xbox and keep it profitable from day one, focus on core markets, and will move to a more niche space rather than trying to directly compete with Playstation.
Like the next Xbox will be powerful, but it won't be cheap. Basically it will be for the Xbox diehards and a few who want the "most powerful console," assuming Microsoft even cares to keep that crown. And then maybe the Series S gets phased out for a handheld next gen (again sold at a profit day one).
I agree with much of this:
I also think Gamepass is functionally impossible to turn into a sustainable business at its current scale (it needs 4-5x the current subscriber count at current prices or to match that by raising prices significantly on current subscribers while also growing subscriber counts).
They can try to cut all the AA studios and try to keep Gamepass $ flowing to just the AAA projects, but even that doesn't feel sustainable compared to the actual value of fully priced sales of games.
It'd be better if they just used CoD as an excuse to be rid of Day 1 Gamepass while making Gamepass just have 1-2 hour trials of games with fully playable games arriving after 12-18 months. They'd lose upwards to 50+% of the Gamepass subscribership but at least games would be able to generate fully priced Xbox/PC sales from current subscribers (many of whom would shift back to buying games as they do outside of Gamepass).
Breaking this one down, the current Series X/S lose somewhere around $100-200 a unit, with the series S (the majority of systems sold) losing the most.
Ceasing to subsidize those systems and making them profitable from day 1 means a system that is wildly more expensive than the market leaders (Sony/Nintendo) who are still subsidizing their platforms.
Hypothetically this means you have a new Xbox at 600 or more when Sony is coming in at 500 and Nintendo is at 400. It's literally the old 3D0 model and we know how that went.
How do you convince anyone to buy that platform when the Xbox literally does not have exclusive software anymore because leadership has embraced a "play anywhere" strategy and Xbox games are on PS/Switch? It doesn't seem like that's viable at all.
And for what it's worth, consoles need to maintain a certain level of support for third parties to bother developing ports for the system. If it falls below that level (and the series S/X are getting close to wherever that is) third party software just stops showing up.
At this point another console isn't viable. A branded PC might be.
IMO Sony has bigger competition/issues than Xbox in the gaming market now.
Mobile and PC gaming are coming to eat Sony's console business for lunch if they don't figure out how to compete. Xbox as a traditional console is pretty much a blip on the competitive radar at this point.
PC is a competitor but Mobile absolutely isn't.
Competition implies that one is able to serve as some kind of substitute for the other and Mobile is completely incapable of serving the market Sony targets with the PlayStation, and vice versa.
Don't confuse shareholder desires for infinite growth with platform viability. There is money to be made in mobile, but that's an entirely separate pool of customers.
Edit: it seems pretty clear from the examples we've seen with TLOU, Fallout, Twisted Metal, the SMB movie and the upcoming GOW/GOT/Horizon projects that much of the "growth" for PlayStation and Nintendo is going to be in leveraging the IP they own into multimedia franchises across film and television, which in turn spike software sales if/when those projects are successful.
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As I see it, they will have first party and second party Xboxs - made by them, ASUS, maybe Dell or something. They will not be traditional consoles, but something inbetween console and PC (I see this as a great positive).
Then they will just publish everything everywhere. (I see this as a great positive).
Xbox as a dedicated console I think is dead, and so is the whole culture of what that meant 15-24 years ago (I see this extremely negatively). I also fear that their internal studio morale will degrade and they will never be able to foster studios to make games that are great. Them destroying two studios as they did just absolutely ruined my outlook on that.
Then they will just publish everything everywhere. (I see this as a great positive).
Xbox as a dedicated console I think is dead, and so is the whole culture of what that meant 15-24 years ago (I see this extremely negatively). I also fear that their internal studio morale will degrade and they will never be able to foster studios to make games that are great. Them destroying two studios as they did just absolutely ruined my outlook on that.
I still don't see what the issue people keep raising with Sony's sales is. They're doing well, game development costs are just ballooning and that's an industry wide thing.
I also don't think PC is hurting PlayStation. This is a narrative we've only seen since the Xbox direction shift and I think people are trying to act like it also applies to PS5.
What PlayStation needs to do is innovate both with hardware but also with storefront. One major advantage PC has over PS5 is Sony is super restrictive on what gets on PSN Store and doesn't offer as much indie support as they could. Obviously some of it is developer choice but why aren't all the cool boomer shooters I like being ported to PS5? Rhetorically asking here but Sony should figure out how to create a storefront and ecosystem that appeals to more people. That's how you create growth.
It seems unlikely but it's not impossible for the Xbox brand to bounce back. People said the same thing about Nintendo during the WiiU time.
And I disagree on the Series X being a failed platform. It has sold better than previous xbox consoles during the same time frame and is an amazing piece of hardware itself.
And the console online space is better for it. You think maintaining, operating and enhancing a service comes cheap?
Also, talking about gamepass sustainability. Majority of streaming sub services are gathering and selling user data. I'm 90% sure MS is doing that with Gamepass and making a pretty penny on that. They would be idiots not to.
Same as i did before this week.
80% or so third party via Steam, Epic, Sony, Nintendo, etc and 20% or so their own ecosystem (console, GP and their own stores).
If the 20% goes down or becomes too much of a drag it might get ditched but I doubt it.
Think their own Surface vs rest of PC market as model.
They'll want option if things do suddenly swing to GP and their ecosystem over time to pivot back to that. But for now their ecosystem is the niche minority vs broader gaming market.
80% or so third party via Steam, Epic, Sony, Nintendo, etc and 20% or so their own ecosystem (console, GP and their own stores).
If the 20% goes down or becomes too much of a drag it might get ditched but I doubt it.
Think their own Surface vs rest of PC market as model.
They'll want option if things do suddenly swing to GP and their ecosystem over time to pivot back to that. But for now their ecosystem is the niche minority vs broader gaming market.
Neither Playstation or Microsoft are growing versus past gens. PC is. Whatever kids aren't getting sucked into purely mobile gaming or Nintendo seem to be heading to PC, where all the mods and streamers are.
I hope they go completely third party, because they killed any interest I had left in their hardware.
i honestly believe they will go third party as a HUGE publisher. and instead of having a console exclusive game it might be PC exclusive to an XBOX store of sorts. while still having huge multiplat games like CoD and stuff.
Again, don't confuse shareholder desires for infinite growth with platform viability. They're two separate things.
Sony is selling "about" as many PS5s as PS4s at this point in the system lifespan, but you're overlooking that this is by design. By this point the PS4 had already price dropped. The PS5 has not only NOT done this, Sony raised the price on the digital model.
That's an express decision to go with increasing the profitability of the platform over raw unit growth. Are those consumers they're missing out on by not price dropping to a cheaper tier being "lost to PC?" hard to see how thats a good argument given that a capable PC is even more expensive.
long term I think the future of Xbox will be a multi-platform publisher that provides their own curated hardware for enthusiast
The Xbox Series consoles are behind the Xbox One in launch aligned sales.
If they actually do entertain bigger third party push, they need to actually market their games as so. Hiding platforms in blogposts or Twitter being the way to announce it is not the way, you have to go big.
Everyone knows it's coming, diehard userbase also pretty much internalized it. You have to make a choice here, if you are deadset on profit.
Everyone knows it's coming, diehard userbase also pretty much internalized it. You have to make a choice here, if you are deadset on profit.
Exactly. And going to plummet even farther as the platform loses exclusives and abandons physical software entirely. Its tracking to maybe hit around 40m units total, and there's no coherent plan for another system to match or exceed this.
Every system below that 40m unit mark lands somewhere between "disappointment" and "complete disaster."
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This is blatently untrue. The Series X|S are selling worse than the Xbone.
PS5 is growing market share, although I get the market isn't expanding.
Sony and Nintendo are both making obvious pushes to move their gaming IP into multimedia franchises and Sony is expanding their presence on PC, so "systems sold" isn't really the best way to measure growth for them anyway.
Xbox did bite off more than they could chew with the acquisition of ActiBlizz, now their videogame division is "topling over" under the weight of ActiBlizz and their Megasellers.
CoD and everything else day 1 and Xbox exclusive is out of the question thanks to the regulators, it would've been a crazy bet anyway, instantly devaluing their acquisition in the hopes it'd lead to gigantic profits in the future with Gamepass being a 100 million+ user service.
Numbers are showing a different reality now with Gamepass and Xbox sales flatlining, the gamble is not sustainable, CoD and everything Day 1 on Gamepass would surely make those already subbed to Gamepass and owning a Series console rejoice, but it will not attract 10s of millions of PS5 users, because they can just buy CoD et al on their platform like always.
But making Xbox a multiplatform 3rd party publisher could be a very profitable way out for them and thanks to the sheer size of ActiBlizz, Bethesda and the rest, they'll do pretty good for sure.
I think their acquisition spree sealed their fate, MS Xbox hardware will probably not be a thing for long to come imho, but MS as a publisher will continue to grow.
CoD and everything else day 1 and Xbox exclusive is out of the question thanks to the regulators, it would've been a crazy bet anyway, instantly devaluing their acquisition in the hopes it'd lead to gigantic profits in the future with Gamepass being a 100 million+ user service.
Numbers are showing a different reality now with Gamepass and Xbox sales flatlining, the gamble is not sustainable, CoD and everything Day 1 on Gamepass would surely make those already subbed to Gamepass and owning a Series console rejoice, but it will not attract 10s of millions of PS5 users, because they can just buy CoD et al on their platform like always.
But making Xbox a multiplatform 3rd party publisher could be a very profitable way out for them and thanks to the sheer size of ActiBlizz, Bethesda and the rest, they'll do pretty good for sure.
I think their acquisition spree sealed their fate, MS Xbox hardware will probably not be a thing for long to come imho, but MS as a publisher will continue to grow.
Xbox hardware will be a thing for as long as consoles are a thing. It'll be interesting to see how they differentiate themselves from PS with exclusives in general being on their way out thanks to skyrocketing costs and shrinking margins.
Yup, gaming on PS3 was a nightmare because of the barely useable controller and barely functional online. Maybe Sony eventually would have go their themselves without MS, but MS undoubtedly sped up innovation in gaming.
They'll likely continue to push the industry forward with their next console and software features too.
Early 2022:
Sony said they would have a very low stock situation. They announced in June or July 2022 supply has been fixed. It actually got better by June July, PS sale records were set the following year.
Late 2022:
MS said they would have a very low stock situation. They announced it should get better sometime early 2023. Phil at one time in 2023 said stock issues have been fixed.
Xbox console sales have been in a steady decline since 2022....and never really got better.
Nintendo:
The Switch is about to be out long enough to see a mid gen refresh from 2 separate generations launch. The Switch is about 9 million away from catching the damn PS2 in sales. Nintendo earned the right and deserves to be left out of this conversation.
Yes the industry as a whole is having issues....but MS has their own issues on top of that.