After this week, what do you think the future of Xbox will be?
- Thread starter Typhon
- Start date
I think the path has been set since last year when it was obvious GamePass failed. Starfield wasn't going to move the needle.
They are going to be a multi-platform publisher more like Activision with a hardware business that matches the rhetoric of hardware not being the focus.
PlayStation will be the main platform for the titles Microsoft Games sell. Smaller-to-medium studios will be closed down to focus resources on moving units akin to how places like Activision/EA work. There won't be as big of a need to fill out release schedules for GamePass.
Shipping 800K units in a quarter and the rumors of retreat from physical retail clued everyone who was looking into how near we are to this becoming the reality. No timed exclusives. They need to sell games and that won't happen on Xbox consoles.
They are going to be a multi-platform publisher more like Activision with a hardware business that matches the rhetoric of hardware not being the focus.
PlayStation will be the main platform for the titles Microsoft Games sell. Smaller-to-medium studios will be closed down to focus resources on moving units akin to how places like Activision/EA work. There won't be as big of a need to fill out release schedules for GamePass.
Shipping 800K units in a quarter and the rumors of retreat from physical retail clued everyone who was looking into how near we are to this becoming the reality. No timed exclusives. They need to sell games and that won't happen on Xbox consoles.
I think MS will exit the console market this generation and go third party. Starfield was the last test and it didn't move the needle
It serves themselves. I don't think it's supposed to make a lot of financial sense, but it would give them (as a company and division) an off-ramp rather than a cold turkey plug pull. I think something like this would be done to mitigate brand damage more than anything, especially as they probably intend to launch alternative hardware devices with more mobile form factors, etc. But basically just to line up a soft exit with a punt. A box they can point to and say it met its goals perfectly no matter how it performs, while also fulfilling previous obligations and PR statements, etc. It's totally possible it wouldn't have any traditional exclusives though. Just marketed as "the best place to play" with some other perks and freebies, perhaps early access windows and betas.
Too add to this Sea of Thieves was supposedly the big test according to the Verge Tom Warren and going by PSN Montly listing it has done very well. Floodgates will open soon, I would not be surprised if after the June showcase suddenly it will be announced that a lot of games in it are coming to PS/Switch.
Even Shiobi posted recently that more games are coming.
Funnily enough dude went full on Playstation recently lol.
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Genuinely, I have no idea where they are headed.
They make some of the best hardware in the business, but they need killer software for that to keep working.
I guess its make or break time, now that they have ABK under their wings.
I do NOT think they are leaving hardware, that's wishful thinking. I do think they need to do something very different with the next generation of consoles.
They make some of the best hardware in the business, but they need killer software for that to keep working.
I guess its make or break time, now that they have ABK under their wings.
I do NOT think they are leaving hardware, that's wishful thinking. I do think they need to do something very different with the next generation of consoles.
Does brand damage matter much? I feel like the people who would be upset by this are purely online.
Yup.
Also one can just look at how subtle they did with their smartphones. They wont do an abrupt Sega move, hell they dont have to. They are one of the biggest 3rd party publishers right now, like many already said.
The points some ppl make about Surface are valid tho. But Xbox in the traditional sense will cease to exist. I'm just curious what MS feels they can price a PC Xbox at. Their next gen hardware is gonna be something....
In the short term (next 1-2 years) I think they'll continue releasing games day 1 into Gamepass (but maybe COD will go in after 6 months), continue selling consoles and gradually expand certain legacy games onto Playstation and Nintendo platforms.
The mid term (next 5 years) all games will come day 1 to competing platforms as MS embraces it's 3rd party publisher arc and looks to maximize profit. A new Xbox console will launch, but will be a hybrid system that invites PC storefronts onboard. Gamepass will either stay around if major growth occurs, or be sunset if it continues to stagnate.
Long term (10 years +) No more Xbox console. Microsoft gaming is essentially a software based publisher and the biggest money maker in the industry, as i'm sure MS will continue to acquire other studios and publishers along the way.
The mid term (next 5 years) all games will come day 1 to competing platforms as MS embraces it's 3rd party publisher arc and looks to maximize profit. A new Xbox console will launch, but will be a hybrid system that invites PC storefronts onboard. Gamepass will either stay around if major growth occurs, or be sunset if it continues to stagnate.
Long term (10 years +) No more Xbox console. Microsoft gaming is essentially a software based publisher and the biggest money maker in the industry, as i'm sure MS will continue to acquire other studios and publishers along the way.
Joke was always "halo gears forza"
just add "elder scrolls, fallout, cod, diablo, wow, and candy crush"
just add "elder scrolls, fallout, cod, diablo, wow, and candy crush"
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One of the best in class cloud gaming providers which is becoming increasingly relevant, a very large third party publisher, "PC gaming in a box" manufacturer.
Not quite sure how the third party publishing thing will go since they gave up on two of their best studios and they seem to have a management problem but it'll be profitable and that's all that matters to the people running the show.
Not quite sure how the third party publishing thing will go since they gave up on two of their best studios and they seem to have a management problem but it'll be profitable and that's all that matters to the people running the show.
A big challenge for current Microsoft game developer is that you are not competing/being compared to a Sony/EA Game developers.
Every fiscal quarter, Microsoft is comparing your output to a Office 365/Azure developer and what they are bringing in vs carrying cost.
Its plain to see from that vantage point that any one not working on King mobile games or COD is in danger.
Xbox likely has one last dedicated console in them, and their future is sure to be a dedicated and much streamlined 3rd party publisher.
Every fiscal quarter, Microsoft is comparing your output to a Office 365/Azure developer and what they are bringing in vs carrying cost.
Its plain to see from that vantage point that any one not working on King mobile games or COD is in danger.
Xbox likely has one last dedicated console in them, and their future is sure to be a dedicated and much streamlined 3rd party publisher.
I don't necessarily agree with this projection. You can install Windows and run Office on any PC, but they still make Surface devices.
I don't have any data to backup my opinion but wouldn't be very likely to even big third parties to stop supporting Xbox if sales continue to decline? I mean, despite the dubious message surrounding Xbox, maybe third parties will accelerate the "irrelevance" of the hardware taking out this burden of Microsoft itself.
Wasn't that already the case with many Japanese games and several indies? At least they try to prioritise one Plattform first and then go to the Xbox. Recent example would be Baldur's Gate 3.
They're gonna go third party, but they'll do it kicking and screaming. Won't happen this gen, maybe next gen.
Japanese games doesnt appear to have any relevance to MS, just look at Tango. Suddenly all talk about "we hear you japanese game fans" sounds blank. I think the real downfall starts when western publishers stop supporting the platform.
Their PC strategy seems tepid and very passive, so I think that'll continue as they just release games on Steam
Their console strategy seems confusing and its clear their leadership lost faith in Xbox as a business as it seems like they thought buying ABK meant instant overnight success so I think they'll continue to close down or merge smaller studios and focus on churning out their biggest franchises - Halo, Call of Duty, Age of Empires, Diablo, etc etc and their smaller titles will become the less annualized franchises like Flight Sim, Forza, DOOM that tend to do pretty well, and the rest of their resources will be to prop up evergreen titles like Elder Scrolls Online, Overwatch, World of Warcraft, Minecraft, Fallout 76, and of course huge projects like the next Elder Scrolls game and try to make more Fallouts.
Of course, you can modify this list based on if games like Gears of War, Perfect Dark, Fable, Blade, Hellblade or Indiana Jones are successful but honestly success in MS' eyes seems like a REALLLYYY high bar I'm not positive those titles will clear. TBH not optimistic on titles like Hellblade, Clockwork Revolution, or Avowed (But I think having Outer Worlds 2 in the pipeline saves them)
And of course, I think those games will be on every platform. MS has barely even given their Surface line proper competitive support and have been pretty meh on making the Xbox competitive after it's launch. I believe the Xbox Series S/X is their last HW launch, and I'm getting comfortable with the idea that they're going to kill the momentum their Handheld would have had and will probably opt to not release it.
Game Pass is going to receive a price increase. I think its going to come at the same time as the Call of DutyABK games on Game Pass.I think that'll be the last big bump Game Pass gets. I think that the quarter or 2 past a big CoD release when game pass subs growth tapers off before the next CoD release, MS execs will honestly do something to muck up momentum. That's honestly how much faith I have in their long term strategy.
Their mobile strategy seems really early and TBH from what it sounds like it kinda feels like "If we make a mobile store and put a couple games like Candy Crush on it, it'l automatically be successful!" so I don't have high hopes for that lasting long or being a pillar.
Their console strategy seems confusing and its clear their leadership lost faith in Xbox as a business as it seems like they thought buying ABK meant instant overnight success so I think they'll continue to close down or merge smaller studios and focus on churning out their biggest franchises - Halo, Call of Duty, Age of Empires, Diablo, etc etc and their smaller titles will become the less annualized franchises like Flight Sim, Forza, DOOM that tend to do pretty well, and the rest of their resources will be to prop up evergreen titles like Elder Scrolls Online, Overwatch, World of Warcraft, Minecraft, Fallout 76, and of course huge projects like the next Elder Scrolls game and try to make more Fallouts.
Of course, you can modify this list based on if games like Gears of War, Perfect Dark, Fable, Blade, Hellblade or Indiana Jones are successful but honestly success in MS' eyes seems like a REALLLYYY high bar I'm not positive those titles will clear. TBH not optimistic on titles like Hellblade, Clockwork Revolution, or Avowed (But I think having Outer Worlds 2 in the pipeline saves them)
And of course, I think those games will be on every platform. MS has barely even given their Surface line proper competitive support and have been pretty meh on making the Xbox competitive after it's launch. I believe the Xbox Series S/X is their last HW launch, and I'm getting comfortable with the idea that they're going to kill the momentum their Handheld would have had and will probably opt to not release it.
Game Pass is going to receive a price increase. I think its going to come at the same time as the Call of DutyABK games on Game Pass.I think that'll be the last big bump Game Pass gets. I think that the quarter or 2 past a big CoD release when game pass subs growth tapers off before the next CoD release, MS execs will honestly do something to muck up momentum. That's honestly how much faith I have in their long term strategy.
Their mobile strategy seems really early and TBH from what it sounds like it kinda feels like "If we make a mobile store and put a couple games like Candy Crush on it, it'l automatically be successful!" so I don't have high hopes for that lasting long or being a pillar.
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It's going to depend on the clumsiness of their attempts to improve their image from a PR perspective... but it's also going to depend on gamers speaking with their wallets. I'm sure they've got another console in them to delay them likely becoming a third party publisher.
Business as usual for the time being. See how CoD & Indiana Jones does in bumping up console sales/GP growth, then make decisions based on that for 2025 as to what goes multi-plat.
I see the next console being an Xbox/PC hybrid, and that will be their selling point. Play all the games, choose your preferred store front & access your existing libraries, etc. I'd imagine the console itself will be slightly higher priced than the Series X, but below what it would cost to build an equivalent PC. There will also be a handheld, i.e. Steam Deck equivalent and maybe some streaming box/device.
I see the next console being an Xbox/PC hybrid, and that will be their selling point. Play all the games, choose your preferred store front & access your existing libraries, etc. I'd imagine the console itself will be slightly higher priced than the Series X, but below what it would cost to build an equivalent PC. There will also be a handheld, i.e. Steam Deck equivalent and maybe some streaming box/device.
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They already revealed their strategy as seen in the ABK acquisition documents. They're going to be a content provider. I doubt they'll ever completely bail from the hardware business, even if the hardware only makes up 30% of console ownership that is still people making purchases of their games through the box that they don't have to split revenue.
But the device isn't going to be the primary business. It's going to be content ownership. Especially on the mobile side.
There's massively low console ownership growth rates* while development costs keep increasing. That's not viable for anyone.
*aside from Nintendo as they're their own category and they know how to keep their budgets low.
But the device isn't going to be the primary business. It's going to be content ownership. Especially on the mobile side.
There's massively low console ownership growth rates* while development costs keep increasing. That's not viable for anyone.
*aside from Nintendo as they're their own category and they know how to keep their budgets low.
One last console thats basically a mid range PC that will have typical Xbox OS and will also launch Steam big picture. Will cost more than your traditional 4 to 500 dollar box. I doubt they will care how much it will sell, cause it probably wont be much.
Xbox OS on PC
All MS 1p games on PS consoles, PC, and whatever kind of box MS ships, Switch 2 when possible.
GamePass will come to an end
Xbox OS on PC
All MS 1p games on PS consoles, PC, and whatever kind of box MS ships, Switch 2 when possible.
GamePass will come to an end
Xbox's leadership seems to be very online, if nothing else. Saving face and avoiding bruised egos seems like a pretty strong motivator in the corporate world. And you can sorta imagine how important that is to Phil's finely cultivated image. They want to feel like winners. from Microsoft proper's POV, they'd possibly want to avoid reputational damage of looking like Google and doing a rug pull, even though it's actually pretty shrewd and efficient from a strictly business point of view, to be sure.
Xbox on PC? Why not PC on Xbox?
Seriously if the Series X allowed you to dual boot Windows it would be a fucking amazing budget gaming pc.
I don't really see the point of both, may as well just make it budget PC and revamp the Xbox PC app to have a big picture mode for TVs like Steam/Deck has. Make it default to that when you boot it up and allow for a switch to desktop mode.
Microsoft should stop using the name Xbox and just beg Valve to go in on making a new Steam machine.
Guess it could work. And have game's implement an "Xbox" graphic profile for people who don't want to bother with settings. To get it as close as possible to a console experience.
They should still be made by the same team that does Xbox consoles now imo. Hardware is the one thing they do really well.
Game pass makes them billions per year. They're not going to abandon that.
It costs them a lot too. I guess it depends on how many subs they can keep. If the next xbox console bombs, i doubt they will keep with it just on PC. And 3rd party deals will probably continue to get more and more expensive.
I think they will go third party for exclusively triple A bloated games with annual releases, so the worst type of publisher
It seems like they think that Gamepass is the end all be all of draw towards their console, but if the last few years have taught us anything that really isn't the case.
Now that they're launching day 1 on PC and even starting to launch games on PS5 and Nintendo, why bother buying an Xbox if I can get a PS5 or gaming PC with the same games, plus even more that don't come to Xbox? What's the point?
I see them releasing a couple more pieces of hardware, continue to struggle to attract buyers, until they eventually shift to being a third party publisher, maybe keeping the Xbox branding on Windows PC gaming features. And I honestly don't see that lasting too long either before their studios get closed or branch out. Those kinds of investments really aren't worth it for a company like Microsoft if you're not also selling a platform that you control and make money on long-term.
Now that they're launching day 1 on PC and even starting to launch games on PS5 and Nintendo, why bother buying an Xbox if I can get a PS5 or gaming PC with the same games, plus even more that don't come to Xbox? What's the point?
I see them releasing a couple more pieces of hardware, continue to struggle to attract buyers, until they eventually shift to being a third party publisher, maybe keeping the Xbox branding on Windows PC gaming features. And I honestly don't see that lasting too long either before their studios get closed or branch out. Those kinds of investments really aren't worth it for a company like Microsoft if you're not also selling a platform that you control and make money on long-term.
I think people are less concerned with whether or not it makes sense for Xbox to make a box and more so whether or not it makes sense for Xbox to make exclusives. A console will not lose them much money to support as long as they produce them for a realistic audience size. Scale down production, sell a more expensive premium product for the 20 million or so American diehards who inexplicably will only ever buy an Xbox console. The bigger question is whether or not it makes sense or helps grow your brand to withhold content from PlayStation in that scenario. Leaving money on the table.
I mean, we kind of know it doesn't make sense for Xbox or PS to have exclusives anymore, and the execs know that too. Everything is going to be opened up in the next 5 years.
I don't think Game Pass was made to drive hardware sales. And ABK wasn't acquired to drive Xbox sales (Phil said so himself).
For Microsoft, I believe everything is in service to growing subscription revenue and mobile store purchases. And they'll continue trying everything possible to get those two things to grow.
They obviously thought Xbox hardware and PC would get them much further down the road, but now that they haven't they have to create other ways to attract users to them.
People are naive if they think the multi-plat pivot is to settle for some old and tired third-party publisher model. Bond said just this week there will be a relationship between their in-game stores and the new mobile store for discounts. You're going to see them tie in Game Pass to that plus try to get people to take their game to the cloud.
Damn; never thought we'd be talking about MS going 3rd party; roughly two months ago this would gotten you a thread ban if not an actual ban
I'll still give MS/Xbox another run with another console but I seriously wouldn't be surprised if they closed up shop.
I'll still give MS/Xbox another run with another console but I seriously wouldn't be surprised if they closed up shop.
God I hope not. My exit plan is building a Linux PC.
Then again I think most if not all Xbox published games on PC run on Proton.
Just because Xbox is forced to put games on the PS5/PS6 and the Switch it doesn't mean Sony will do the same and put games on the Xbox. That won't happen.
And we know Sony is going day and date with GAAS games on PC for a long time, but nothing has changed regarding SP game on PC, they'll cone out 18-24 months , because any earlier kills the legs of the games in the console.
In the event they wanted to divest from it, they would most likely float it as a publicly traded company, not find a specific buyer.