• Light/Dark
  • Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
  • We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.

Analyst: Nintendo Switch Will Sell 25 Million Units This Year; PS5 Due Out In Late 2019

Status
Not open for further replies.

Deleted member 2145

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
29,223
what if Sony pulled a Nintendo and announced the PS5 at PSX next year and then had an event in January or February for a March or April 2020 launch? I think separating the day 1 buyers and the holiday buyers is a good move, it gives the console manufacturer a chance to build up a library ahead of the holiday season, and it also lets them get the early stock situation sorted. and by pulling a Nintendo I mean announcing and launching a new console without E3.

edit: meant 2019 for an early 2020 launch
 
JustAnotherOne

JustAnotherOne

Member
Jan 2, 2018
2,029
There would probably have been sooooooo much more chatter if next gen was targeting 2019- rumors and leaks would have been dropping on a weekly basis. Even if the PS5 and Xbox Next resemble the current gen hardware rise,it would still generate much more talk from industry vets,devs and above all game journalists that would fight to bring the next big leak about next gen.
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 249

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,828
phanphare said:
what if Sony pulled a Nintendo and announced the PS5 at PSX this year and then had an event in January or February for a March or April launch? I think separating the day 1 buyers and the holiday buyers is a good move, it gives the console manufacturer a chance to build up a library ahead of the holiday season, and it also lets them get the early stock situation sorted. and by pulling a Nintendo I mean announcing and launching a new console without E3.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
They could, but Nintendo was uniquely in the position of not having any announced Wii U games (other than one which was already confirmed as a Switch/Wii U multiplat) when they did that. Sony has six PS4 titles in the pipeline.
 
VeePs

VeePs

Prophet of Truth
Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,370
Honestly I would rather Sony/Microsoft push their next gen console to 2020 maybe even 2021.

If PS5 comes out in 2019 that gives PS4 a minimum 6 year life span, if it comes out in 2020 that gives it a 7 year lifespan. We can probably expect a long lifespan for the PS5, a PS5 pro halfway, and VR for PS5 so more power would be nice for longevity.
 
Shark

Shark

Member
Oct 28, 2017
8,126
Raleigh, NC
phanphare said:
what if Sony pulled a Nintendo and announced the PS5 at PSX this year and then had an event in January or February for a March or April launch? I think separating the day 1 buyers and the holiday buyers is a good move, it gives the console manufacturer a chance to build up a library ahead of the holiday season, and it also lets them get the early stock situation sorted. and by pulling a Nintendo I mean announcing and launching a new console without E3.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
I always thought it made more sense to launch in the spring.
 
Dr. Mario

Dr. Mario

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,889
Netherlands
I actually said both of these things last year. PS5 2019, Switch ballpark 23-26M.


I'm still slightly hopeful on PS5 releasing in 2019, though there are more things than MLCC that would make the timing awfully short.

Switch sold about equal in Q1 and Q2 of this calendar year compared with last year, a bit less even. I see no possibility of it selling +10M in the remaining 3 quarters of the FY compared with last FY. Pokemon Let's Go would need PoGo levels of hype for that to happen.
 

Deleted member 36622

User requested account closure
Banned
Dec 21, 2017
6,639
25 milion Switch seems too much, but yes the 20 m goal is achievable depending on what games they will release in the first 3 months of 2019. (What if Fire Emblem comes out in Feburary, for example)

I think they will go close, which would still mean a growth YoY. (like 18-19M)

PS5 in late 2019 is my prediction, so yes i do agree on that, i said it earlier last year and i think there is still a chance cause all gens last more or less the same 5-6 years, i don't see why this one should last longer.
 
Last edited:
Neonep

Neonep

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,755
They have a ton of faith in Pokemon. Question, has Smash historically been a game that sells consoles?
 

Deleted member 2145

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
29,223
Shark said:
I always thought it made more sense to launch in the spring.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

yeah same. unless you just royally fuck up your console or have literally 0 games at launch there will be a guaranteed pool of people who will be there day 1. then you can have a nice launch boost, a nice holiday boost, you can maximize both in terms of stock by separating those groups instead of having them fight over the same allotment, and you can make the product a more enticing purchase during the holiday season by building the library up over the year. and also I think there's a mental aspect to having a nice drip feed of games throughout the year rather than having a bunch of games release on a single day for launch, especially if it's a november release and you're also getting all the 3rd party games that have already released.
 
Atreides

Atreides

Member
Oct 25, 2017
94
Spain
I don't see how 25 million units is possible. Even if pokemon and smash are much higher successes than expected, Nintendo would not have time to react and increase production by five million before the end of the fiscal year.
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Nintendo has shipped 1.88M Switches in Q1 this FY. They're on pace to ship around 3-3.5M in Q2, which would put the total at around 5M. That means Q3+Q4 would need to be 20M to hit that 25M goal.

I can see Q4 being way stronger than normal given Smash's late launch date and the absurd hype around it, maybe something like 5M or so. If they hit this that means they'd need to hit 15M in Q3, and I'm pretty sure the highest Q3 on record is the Wii with 11-12M or so.

So 20M is doable, 25M seems absurd. It's strange that an analyst is seriously considering that.

*Note all of my numbers are working from memory so I might be off by a bit.
 
BitterFig

BitterFig

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,100
People expecting PS4 to die whenever PS5 releases are silly. There will be as much PS4 games as there are now 4 years from now. Even if PS5 is 2019.

Don't you people see that the similarities between hardware of consecutive gens will be unprecedented? It will be so easy to make cross-gen titles I don't even know why would 3rd parties do otherwise for a very long time.

I also predict that PS5 will track behind PS4 in terms of frontal sales but Sony will sell way more consoles per year overall once they start selling both PS4 and 5 at the same time.

Business wise, releasing PS5 the soonest is the best. Only unknown is when manufacturing is ready in sufficient numbers.
 

Cybersai

Banned
Jan 8, 2018
11,631
PS5 in 2019 is crazy. Why would they release Last of Us Part II on PS4 then if it was its final year?
 
DrDeckard

DrDeckard

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,109
UK
What did switch sell in its first year? It can't get to over half the user base of the ps4 in 2 years, surely?
 
ArchedThunder

ArchedThunder

Uncle Beerus
Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,078
I think both of these are wrong.
A little over 20 million is the absolute ceiling for Switch this fiscal year, and that's if everything goes perfectly.
PS5 won't come till 2020.
 
Buddy

Buddy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,295
Germany
I can see Nintendo selling 20 mio. with a price cut. Smash and Pokémon are surely going to move some systems and Christmas time is Nintendo time but 18-20 is the max I can see it doing.

But 25 mio seems impossible to me.

Maybe Nintendo has a couple aces in their sleeves and didn't show them till now...we'll see
 

requiem

Member
Dec 3, 2017
1,448
I think Switch will just clear 20 million. Also, I think that people are both severely overestimating Let's Go and severely underestimating Smash Ultimate.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
skittzo0413 said:
Nintendo has shipped 1.88M Switches in Q1 this FY. They're on pace to ship around 3-3.5M in Q2, which would put the total at around 5M. That means Q3+Q4 would need to be 20M to hit that 25M goal.

I can see Q4 being way stronger than normal given Smash's late launch date and the absurd hype around it, maybe something like 5M or so. If they hit this that means they'd need to hit 15M in Q3, and I'm pretty sure the highest Q3 on record is the Wii with 11-12M or so.

So 20M is doable, 25M seems absurd. It's strange that an analyst is seriously considering that.

*Note all of my numbers are working from memory so I might be off by a bit.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

I think a record Q3 can happen, but it would have to be in 2019 w/Pokemon Gen 8 and hardware refresh coinciding (which means price cut for base model).

Also, looking at Nintendo's numbers for historical Q3s:

DS

Q3 FY07 11.14M Shipped
Q3 FY08 11.89M Shipped
Q3 FY09 11.65M Shipped
​
Wii

Q3 FY08 10.41M Shipped
Q3 FY09 11.31M Shipped
​
5.0M Shipped for Q4 was cracked 3 times (DS x2 and Wii x1.
 
Ascenion

Ascenion

Prophet of Truth - One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,113
Mecklenburg-Strelitz
Well PS5 in 2019 is one way to just give Microsoft the power crown. If it seriously drops in 2019 I'm not buying it. I'm not buying underpowered hardware again.
 
Soulsis

Soulsis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,564
How many Switches have been sold this year anyway? How close are they to that 20 mil mark? And that's a fiscal year forecast I take it?
 

MasterChumly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,903
The analyst must be expecting Nintendo to drop the price to 200 and possible bundle in Zelda at the same time.
 
K Samedi

K Samedi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,990
25 million is pretty much out of the question unless they have an insane Q3 and Q4. I still see them reaching 20 but not much higher than that.

As for the PS4 launching 2019, I just dont think we have any signs pointing at a 2019 launch. 2020 seems more likely.
 
Dyle

Dyle

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
29,954
I could see spring 2020 for the PS5 launch, but not holiday 2019

I wonder if Pachter has any bets going on the Switch's sales, it seems like he's trying to win by Price is Right rules and throwing in a $1 troll bet
 
Status
Not open for further replies.