Oh. Somehow remembered it being under 200k but I stand corrected. Still doesn't change the larger point though of April being dead month.
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April 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, May 15th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Oh. Somehow remembered it being under 200k but I stand corrected. Still doesn't change the larger point though of April being dead month.
Iirc, Zhuge (ultra informed badass) seemed to say US has risen to around 65% of X1 sales. That would seem to indicate that UK would be another 15% or so, and the remaining 20% of sales spread rest of world, probably most in Canada and US expats around the world.
Of course, just wanted to throw that out there for anyone trying to make predictions. :P
Ps4 will win easily and with the biggest relative monthly gap so far in 2018.
Maybe even the biggest absolut so far this year...
I also expect the baseline to be a bit higher thanks to the still ongoing Fortnite craze.
Nevertheless Ps4 will not sell 400k or something and more than February and March...
Xbox One and Switch should be close again. I don't see Labo driving hardware just yet.
God of War will be #1 overall.
Sea of Thieves and PUBG still chart in the top 20 overall and top 5 on Xbox One.
Maybe even the biggest absolut so far this year...
I also expect the baseline to be a bit higher thanks to the still ongoing Fortnite craze.
Nevertheless Ps4 will not sell 400k or something and more than February and March...
Xbox One and Switch should be close again. I don't see Labo driving hardware just yet.
God of War will be #1 overall.
Sea of Thieves and PUBG still chart in the top 20 overall and top 5 on Xbox One.
Mine are
[NSW] 195K
[PS4] 245K
[XB1] 180K
[NSW] 195K
[PS4] 245K
[XB1] 180K
That's a lot of fatih for LABO, a game that didn't even get to the Top 10 at launch
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Just FYI, you need to put a space between the square bracket and the first number to ensure that your predictions count.
It's so unhealthy to rely on one big country (upwards of 70%), but it looks like that is what we're seeing...
Ah good to know.
I thought ratio was already around 2/3 of sales was from the North America region. Back in the beginning of 2017 when EA gave an estimate on the amount of Xbox One's sold people speculated about the %.
Yes because it crazy. One the bundle was limited, two the bundle was the pro which has a smaller audience, three historical data doesn't support your assumption. In conclusion
400k is still a lot for April. 300k would already be an outstanding result.
Yes because it crazy. One the bundle was limited, two the bundle was the pro which has a smaller audience, three historical data doesn't support your assumption. In conclusion
Yea ok. Lol
Because the PS4 Pro bundle is the only PS4 system that will sell in April. Lol
I'm with you there. I doubt it'll do THAT well but I believe it will be its best April yet. If it even got to 300k that would make PS4 the REAL record setter on the path to E3. Haha
Thought north america was God of War land and the additions in the new one were made to grow in europe etc.
At the beginning of the new generation it was 60% US 40% RotW.
Since then Xbox One launched in additional markets. But legs of the console seem to be worse in some regions.
Xbox 360 was pretty much 50:50
65% is the upper end of the spectrum.
Xbox One is around 21 million in the US as of March 2018
65% would put the WW total at only 32 million
60% +/- 3 points is my best guess.
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I have a lot of faith in Labo but not in the short run. I said "some interest" because I'm guessing that a larger percentage of Labo interest is additive to the normal interest of regular videogames. People who want God of War are comparatively more likely to already own a PS4, whereas your love for Zelda may less strongly predict getting Labo. So it may sell only e.g. 100k (probably more like 250k), but 40k of these could be new Switch owners. Probably not though, but we're all wagering a bit.
There is a less than 1% chance that PS4 doesn't take the month. When it already took the previous two months pretty comfortably. As well as the release of the biggest exclusive so far this year. Labo release in Japan didn't seem to increase hardware sells so I don't know why you feel it would be enough to give the Switch the no.1 spot. Buy hey
[PS4] 240K
[XB1] 190K
[NSW] 220K
Hell, I'll give it a go this month. I'm hoping that GoW is enough to drive sales higher than last April.
[XB1] 190K
[NSW] 220K
Hell, I'll give it a go this month. I'm hoping that GoW is enough to drive sales higher than last April.
Yeah, from what we can tell by those in the know, sales have bounced a bit in the US, while they've cratered in EU, and were never really much more than a rounding error in Asia. So the 60/40 split annually has risen to 65+ US. IIRC, solid estimates should be around 36.5m global as of end of month April.
The 65% figure gives a pretty solid picture of how to count global sales as they go along, eg : ~200k US = ~300k WW.
I think PS4 has been somewhere around 35/65, but it's been a while since I've heard in depth details on that, I think that was 2014 era. It might be more like 30/70 now.
All of this varies a bit by region due to holidays, tax refunds (US), economic difficulties, etc.
One day the decline will set in, one day, just you wait, don't say I didn't warn you! It will be too late to repent!There is a less than 1% chance that PS4 doesn't take the month. When it already took the previous two months pretty comfortably. As well as the release of the biggest exclusive so far this year. Labo release in Japan didn't seem to increase hardware sells so I don't know why you feel it would be enough to give the Switch the no.1 spot. Buy hey
^ That's a strange response, lol. I don't think they are saying it will never take the
1st spot again, just for April 2018.
Yeah I think PS4 has it this month. The harder thing to pick is 2-3.
I also think picking somewhat higher than their previous best April for PS4 isn't a bad idea. God of War had to push consoles.
1st spot again, just for April 2018.
Yeah I think PS4 has it this month. The harder thing to pick is 2-3.
I also think picking somewhat higher than their previous best April for PS4 isn't a bad idea. God of War had to push consoles.
[PS4] 255K
[NSW] 190K
[XB1] 165K
Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of March and April. This is when it is beneficial to compare weekly averages and not just simple month to month, because March is a 5 week month while April is only 4. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for April to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts
Notes:
Not much to say besides console sales continue to slow down from March, but at a faster rate.
Xbox
Xbox One has had plenty of deals sprinkled throughout the years and April has seen a couple of them. April 2015 saw massive trade in deals for the Xbox One at GameStop and Best Buy and April 2016 continued the $50 price drop from March. This helped sales stabilize from their previous March's. April 2014 and April 2017 did not have any deals and collapsed in sales. For context, the Xbox One always has a massive event happen in March so that is why April can either be a decent hold if it has another great deal or will slow massively if there isn't a deal that year.
Xbox One does not have any significant deals this month besides a free Madden 18 at GameStop and Best Buy and is following an impressive March that had Sea of Thieves and price promotions. Of course, there is an X factor in Fortnite so it is hard to say if that is enough to stop sales from dropping off a cliff.
The Xbox One so far averages a decrease of -27%, with a rise of +2% (2015) and a maximum decrease of -54% (2014). Remove 2015 and the average drops to -37%.
Playstation
As noted last year, PS4 has been very consistent in its drop from March to April. It's dropped an average of -34%, with a minimum of -33% (2014) and maximum of -35% (2017).
This April has the launch of God of War, a 94/95 Metacritic/Opencritic game that also has a Pro bundle. In addition to Fortnite seemingly keeping sales high this year, we should be looking at a great hold for the PS4.
Nintendo
The 3DS averages a decrease of -35%, with a minimum of -17% (2014) and a maximum of -55% (2015 and 2016).
The Switch has been a great seller this year despite the lack of many game releases. April continues this with a light release schedule of LABO, a DIY kit(s) and DK: Tropical Freeze, a Wii U port. LABO is an unknown factor in the US right now but with info from other regions such as Europe and Japan, it might have a slow start over here.
Recap
April is a very clear drop from March.. Weekly average drop from March is ~30% or more.
The biggest April ever recorded back in the 7th gen was the Wii with 714K back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 360K in 2007.
The biggest April ever recorded in the 8th gen is the PS4 with 206K in 2017. Second biggest? PS4 again with 199K in 2014.
[NSW] 190K
[XB1] 165K
Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of March and April. This is when it is beneficial to compare weekly averages and not just simple month to month, because March is a 5 week month while April is only 4. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for April to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts
Code:
2012
Xbox 360 March: 371K / 5 = 74,200
Xbox 360 April: 236K / 4 = 59,000
Weekly average down 20%
PS3 March: 337K / 5 = 67,400
PS3 April: 172K / 4 = 43,000
Weekly average down 36%
3DS March: 225K / 5 = 45,000
3DS April: 128K / 4 = 32,000
Weekly average down 29%
Notable Releases in April
Xbox 360
Kinect Star Wars 320GB Bundle $449
Code:
2013
Xbox 360 March: 261K / 5 = 52,200
Xbox 360 April: 130K / 4 = 32,500
Weekly average down 38%
PS3 March: 211K / 5 = 42,200
PS3 April: 102K / 4 = 25,500
Weekly average down 40%
3DS March: 230K / 5 = 46,000
3DS April: 114K / 4 = 28,500
Weekly average down 38%
Notable Releases in April
Xbox 360
Injustice: Gods Among Us [4 weeks]
Dead Island: Riptide [2 weeks]
PS3
Injustice: Gods Among Us [4 weeks]
Dead Island: Riptide [2 weeks]
Code:
2014
Xbox One March: 311K / 5 = 62,200
Xbox One April: 115K / 4 = 28,750
Weekly average down 54%
PS4 March: 371K / 5 = 74,200
PS4 April: 199K / 4 = 49,750
Weekly average down 33%
3DS March: 159K / 5 = 31,800
3DS April: 106K / 4 = 26,500
Weekly average down 17%
Xbox 360 March: 111K / 5 = 22,200
Xbox 360 April: 71K / 4 = 17,750
Weekly average down 20%
PS3 March: 67K / 5 = 13,400
PS3 April: 35K / 4 = 8,750
Weekly average down 35%
Notable Releases in April
3DS
Disney Magical World Special Themed Peach Pink 2DS $129 [4 weeks]
Xbox 360
Titanfall [483K]
Code:
2015
Xbox One March: 229K / 5 = 45,800
Xbox One April: 187K / 4 = 46,750
Weekly average up 2%
PS4 March: 330K / 5 = 66,000
PS4 April: 175K / 4 = 43,750
Weekly average down 34%
3DS March: 265K / 5 = 53,000
3DS April: 116K / 4 = 29,000
Weekly average down 45%
Notable Releases in April
Xbox One
Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $125 towards Xbox One [3 weeks]
Best Buy Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $175 towards Xbox One [1 week]
Mortal Kombat X [>516K]
PS4
Mortal Kombat X [>734K]
Code:
2016
Xbox One March: 242K / 5 = 48,400
Xbox One April: 168K / 4 = 42,000
Weekly average down 13%
PS4 March: 330K / 5 = 66,000
PS4 April: 175K / 4 = 43,750
Weekly average down 34%
3DS March: 171K / 5 = 34,200
3DS April: 75K / 4 = 18,750
Weekly average down 45%
Notable Releases in April
Xbox One
$50 price cut on all models March 22nd - April 30th (28 days in April NPD / 4 weeks)
Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $100 towards Xbox One [3 weeks]
Dark Souls 3 [3 weeks] [151K]
PS4
Dark Souls 3 [3 weeks] [353K]
Ratchet & Clank [3 weeks] [207.5K - 237K]
Code:
2017
Xbox One March: 244K / 5 = 48,800
Xbox One April: 110K / 4 = 27,500
Weekly average down 44%
PS4 March: 397K / 5 = 79,400
PS4 April: 206K / 4 = 51,500
Weekly average down 35%
Notable Events in April
PS4
PS4 Slim 1TB $299 [2 weeks]
Persona 5 [4 weeks]
Code:
2018 March Weekly Average
PS4: ~355K / 5 = 71,000
Switch: ~310K / 5 = 62,000
Xbox One: ~300K / 5 = 60,000
Notable Events in April
Switch
LABO Variety Kit $69 [3 weeks]
LABO Robot Kit $79 [3 weeks]
Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze [1 week]
Xbox One
Madden 18 free with Xbox One S and X April 22 - May 1 [GameStop] | 10 days
Madden 18 free with Xbox One S and X April 29 - May 5 [Best Buy] | 7 days
PS4
PS4 Pro God of War 4 1TB limited bundle $399 [3 weeks]
God of War 4 [3 weeks]Notes:
Not much to say besides console sales continue to slow down from March, but at a faster rate.
Xbox
Xbox One has had plenty of deals sprinkled throughout the years and April has seen a couple of them. April 2015 saw massive trade in deals for the Xbox One at GameStop and Best Buy and April 2016 continued the $50 price drop from March. This helped sales stabilize from their previous March's. April 2014 and April 2017 did not have any deals and collapsed in sales. For context, the Xbox One always has a massive event happen in March so that is why April can either be a decent hold if it has another great deal or will slow massively if there isn't a deal that year.
Xbox One does not have any significant deals this month besides a free Madden 18 at GameStop and Best Buy and is following an impressive March that had Sea of Thieves and price promotions. Of course, there is an X factor in Fortnite so it is hard to say if that is enough to stop sales from dropping off a cliff.
The Xbox One so far averages a decrease of -27%, with a rise of +2% (2015) and a maximum decrease of -54% (2014). Remove 2015 and the average drops to -37%.
Playstation
As noted last year, PS4 has been very consistent in its drop from March to April. It's dropped an average of -34%, with a minimum of -33% (2014) and maximum of -35% (2017).
This April has the launch of God of War, a 94/95 Metacritic/Opencritic game that also has a Pro bundle. In addition to Fortnite seemingly keeping sales high this year, we should be looking at a great hold for the PS4.
Nintendo
The 3DS averages a decrease of -35%, with a minimum of -17% (2014) and a maximum of -55% (2015 and 2016).
The Switch has been a great seller this year despite the lack of many game releases. April continues this with a light release schedule of LABO, a DIY kit(s) and DK: Tropical Freeze, a Wii U port. LABO is an unknown factor in the US right now but with info from other regions such as Europe and Japan, it might have a slow start over here.
Recap
April is a very clear drop from March.. Weekly average drop from March is ~30% or more.
The biggest April ever recorded back in the 7th gen was the Wii with 714K back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 360K in 2007.
The biggest April ever recorded in the 8th gen is the PS4 with 206K in 2017. Second biggest? PS4 again with 199K in 2014.
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[PS4] 255K
[NSW] 199K
[XB1] 177K
[NSW] 199K
[XB1] 177K
You forgot a square bracket in front off NSW
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Hmmm so PUGB is never coming to PS4? I kinda wanted that to be more first battle Royale experience since it blew up first. Big get from MS, seems to really be helping the console out in U.S.
I see a lot of friends playing fortnite on PS, but still seems like an easy 5-8 million new players are being left out. Weird Sony isn't trying to get it, or maybe they are.
I see a lot of friends playing fortnite on PS, but still seems like an easy 5-8 million new players are being left out. Weird Sony isn't trying to get it, or maybe they are.
It's a temporary exclusive so should launch one day, Fortnite is much bigger than it now so not sure how a late port would do.
Thanks for the wall of numbers Welfare
[NSW] 198K
[PS4] 290K
[XB1] 172K
I expect GoW to be big for PS4, but I am not sure if it can break 300K. I wanted to predict 300K, but I am not sure and I think this will be the best April for PS4 this gen.
Switch predictions have been bad for me, so I have not input there except that Labo probably didn't do anything for it hardware-wise. It might hit the top 10 though.
Xbox definitely won't have an April 2017, but since X is on the market, I wanted to be generous. I do not see Xbox hitting 200K in April ever.
I am not sure if this has been answered yet, but are game bundles a part of the software revenue charts (GoW Pro bundle), or are they exempt like before when charts used to be by unit sales?
[NSW] 198K
[PS4] 290K
[XB1] 172K
I expect GoW to be big for PS4, but I am not sure if it can break 300K. I wanted to predict 300K, but I am not sure and I think this will be the best April for PS4 this gen.
Switch predictions have been bad for me, so I have not input there except that Labo probably didn't do anything for it hardware-wise. It might hit the top 10 though.
Xbox definitely won't have an April 2017, but since X is on the market, I wanted to be generous. I do not see Xbox hitting 200K in April ever.
I am not sure if this has been answered yet, but are game bundles a part of the software revenue charts (GoW Pro bundle), or are they exempt like before when charts used to be by unit sales?
Thanks for the reply. I am thinking God of War will take #1 and Far Cry 5 at #2. I would love to think what Fortnite Battle Pass would do if it was a part of the software charts. Unfortunately, that's not the case.
Reminds me when people were going nuts on the Switch predictions for slow months after the big launch.
That Wii level predictions of 700k in October etc.
And 400k + in April is Wii level territory...
Sure everybody thinks this. I have no chance at getting a yellow jersey when we're competing against heavyweights like Welfare though. Neither do you. I'm banking on that upset for the polka dot jersey. In any case my 240K prediction for NSW is a lot less crazy than people saying 400K+ for PS4, lol.
I can predict horribly wrong as well lol just check my position last month.
When it comes to April, I find I predict too high more often than not. Can never know for sure how a month will go.
