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August 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, September 11th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Haha come on we don't need data to guess that :p
So hmm, what about Go Vacation, did it increase significantly MoM ?
Really appreciate you and few others sharing insights and some numbers for fun :D
Thanks for the updated number. Quick question if you are still taking them and if you can answer, if we were round to the nearest 5K, does PS4 round to 195K?
Predictions will round to the nearest 5K I think so like I said "close enough".
EDIT: Actually a better question. Is the gap between XB1 and PS4 over or under 30K?
Do we know if in US the attach rate for MK8D is increasing, decreasing, or staying the same without any significant deviation?
As the switch library broadens, it'll decrease for sure, but it's still, in terms of WoM, a must-have for the console, and an easy and safe go-to for parents buying the console for their children to play.
As the switch library broadens, it'll decrease for sure, but it's still, in terms of WoM, a must-have for the console, and an easy and safe go-to for parents buying the console for their children to play.
Sure but it is a JRPG, these games are known for having a big drop after the first few weeks and MK8D is probably selling around 100k now.
It would already be great if Octopath manages to hold in the top 10 tbh.
Well, OT being a JRPG suggests that it had a steep drop-off in its second month, so I'm not sure if that tells us anything about how well MK8D is doing...
Octopath had 4 weeks of tracking in July, there was no way that it would hold well in August. Anything below a 80% drop is really good imo.
Hahah no insider info on MK8D but since we have HW numbers and it is a dead month, ~50% attach-rate given past data and it was not that hard to guess.
Nice to hear ! Especially since the game didnt even have a week of tracking. World probably helped to establish the brand even more in the US.
I wonder how you are guessing digital ratios since we don't have data from Nintendo ?
You'r Forgetting madden came out in August so regular slims will sell well during that month, plus whatever was left for those Spiderman Pro bundles. It was probably a mix of both honestly. September will be the deciding factor if there is still an issue production wise with the PRO's.
Sep has spdey Pro and limit one so i don't think it will tell full story about Pro shortages.
Are you taking questions about non-Big 3 and previous-gen hardware? :D
Years ago, when Nintendo claimed the 3DS was a "powerhouse," we had a relatively unfavorable comparison chart between 3DS and PSP, but 3DS' hardware legs seem to be better than many thought. Do you know how it's been doing compared with PSP at the same point in their lifecycles?
I'll let others ask the Classic questions as I'm sure they have better ones to ask, but I guess we can infer their sales were pretty impressive then. Thanks!
OP
OP
This may fall under the comparisons umbrella, but how are the Classics doing month-to-month? My local Wal-Mart has lots of SNES Classics in stock, so seems like stock isn't in shortage for that one. Wondering if it's selling at a decent pace still (indicating it'll sell-through its shipment and encourage a N64/GB Classic someday) or if it's dropped off a cliff indicating overshipment. Thanks!
Edit:
And thanks for the nudging on the monthlies! (^_^)
So Aqua said 56% attach rate for MK8D for the month?
That would mean if estimates are right at least 112k?
So Monster Hunter probably did what, 60-70k In 3 days? Not bad for a port of a 3ds game with no marketing.
That would mean if estimates are right at least 112k?
So Monster Hunter probably did what, 60-70k In 3 days? Not bad for a port of a 3ds game with no marketing.
so if I have the number right Nintendo is now up YoY Fiscal Year wise
why would they? they are already at the head, they dont need to cut their revenue to sell more hardware on a gap XBOX will not close. they are better of selling less while making more from each unit
so if I have the number right Nintendo is now up YoY Fiscal Year wise
why would they? they are already at the head, they dont need to cut their revenue to sell more hardware on a gap XBOX will not close. they are better of selling less while making more from each unit
As posted earlier, the Switch number is wrong. It looks like it is closer to 205-206k.
if it for both August (2017 and 2018) then the overall quantiy will be down but the YoY will keep constant, let me fix it
I saw a lot of people mentionning the 200$ PS4 deal during Black Friday.
The deal has drived hard PS4 sales during November. However, it should be mentionned more that a temporary price-cut is also impacting negatively sales when the price is back to normal.
Last year, PS4 had an exceptionnal November thanks to that but December was impacted negatively by it. When Sony is taking the decision to do a price-cut or not, they are looking at the whole picture.
The deal has drived hard PS4 sales during November. However, it should be mentionned more that a temporary price-cut is also impacting negatively sales when the price is back to normal.
Last year, PS4 had an exceptionnal November thanks to that but December was impacted negatively by it. When Sony is taking the decision to do a price-cut or not, they are looking at the whole picture.
Yeah it was August 2017's number that was wrong, so since it is flat, then it is closer to 205k instead of 215k.
You're ignoring the part where their deals were bad in December.
That's insane. Really good to see adoption of evergreens maintain itself so phenomenally, while also seeing third party and indie software succeed so well on the console. Switch seems to have a very diverse audience in terms of games they like, with the only major glaring hole being that there's no Wii Sports-esque casual titles. Labo was supposed to target the "never played a game" crowd, but holiday might not look too good unfortunately. I'm sure Nintendo EPD is working on that, so we'll have to wait and see what comes of it.
Just rambling a bit here: Switch so far has a 52% attach rate with MK8D, on Wii U WW MK8 had a 62% attach rate, on 3DS MK7 had a 24% attach rate, and on Wii, MKWii had a 37% attach rate. I think Switch will easily pass 80M units WW, while it's clear that the attach rate *will* drop as more hardware sells, I speculate it will have an attach rate better than Wii, but worse Wii U - around 45% feels like a safe number to me, thus translating to a lifetime 36 million units, making it the second best selling title in Mario Kart, behind Wii by 1.1 million. Of course, we're still early days for these evergreen titles, so we'll see what happens.
bubu exclusive are the most important thing
i expect btw based on benji's comments ps4 is going to get a big hardware bump in september due to spiderman. because it also happened for god of war. however it was short lived compared to xbox sustained growth as we see from the yoy figures.
hardware will always>software. ps4 won this gen on dominant more powerful base hardware in years 1-4. xbox is growing because of xbox one x...and eventually it will top ps4 as xbox one x price starts to decline, which makes ps5 necessary. This despite we were told X would be a small seller because it costs $500 and have little to no effect....
MS however bungled any real shot to come back this gen when the X didn't come in at a more mass market price of 399. Sometimes I wonder if they'd have been better off making a more rough ugly matte system rather than a super refined quiet Apple like product. Going with 8GB RAM instead of 12. And targeting 399. At the end of the day though i dont know if that would have been enough to hit 399 anyway, only ms knows those spreadsheets.
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50$ off the Pro.
50$ off the Slim for the biggest week of the month.
It was no 200$ deal, but like I said, if you can't keep the deal into December, then December will be impacted negatively.
December 2017 was 500k lower for PS4 than in 2016 and 2015 despite having comparable deals.
Dude, don't you get tired downplaying exclusives so much? GoW literally made Sony increase their forecast, it doesn't get any better than that.
Well, from what I understand those two months are mainly dependent on deals, if people find a better deal on another console then they will go with that.
Reads just like the graphs from the article:
https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2015...-widen-its-console-sales-lead-over-microsoft/
November is indeed very dependant on deals. Black Friday is all about deals.
December is more about gifting and buying family-friendly stuff. Price can be a factor, but that's not the main one. Switch was the most expensive console last December (excluding Pro/X) and sold the best.