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BREXIT |OT| A minister always pays his debts

Oct 25, 2017
525
0
Why do people think Norway would pass a vote?
It has no advantages except independent fishing/agriculture policies and some tariff control that no-one gives a shit about. It has massive disadvantages on things that politicians really care about like no vote on the EU regulations we must follow, plus rules of origin checks that fuck up the Irish borders (either NI-Eire or NI-UK). That independent tariff policy on agriculture fucks up island of Ireland trade, pissing off Unionists, Nationalists and everyone on the island of Ireland.
Plus, Norway doesn't want us taking over their EEA gang so we'd probably need to clone most of the EEA bodies to form new EU-UK bodies.
 
Oct 31, 2018
182
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Why do people think Norway would pass a vote?
It has no advantages except independent fishing/agriculture policies and some tariff control that no-one gives a shit about. It has massive disadvantages on things that politicians really care about like no vote on the EU regulations we must follow, plus rules of origin checks that fuck up the Irish borders (either NI-Eire or NI-UK). That independent tariff policy on agriculture fucks up island of Ireland trade, pissing off Unionists, Nationalists and everyone on the island of Ireland.
Plus, Norway doesn't want us taking over their EEA gang so we'd probably need to clone most of the EEA bodies to form new EU-UK bodies.
Parliament is looking for a way to ‘honour’ the referendum whist staying in CU. It will pass Labour 6 tests and the SNP and Lib Dem’s, so it only needs 10 Tory rebels or so to get through.
 
“ Shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry is addressing the chamber. “Our place in the world is strengthened, not diminished when we cut ourselves off from Europe,” she says. “ - Guardian

How can this statement come from Labour. This is ridiculous, and such a prominent figure in the party too.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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“ Shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry is addressing the chamber. “Our place in the world is strengthened, not diminished when we cut ourselves off from Europe,” she says. “ - Guardian

How can this statement come from Labour. This is ridiculous, and such a prominent figure in the party too.
It's a mistake/misspoken/whatever because she's quoting/paraphrasing Paul Farrelly who said this

https://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/739a1359-e058-49e3-a597-fac0ba3bd93a?in=17:21:55&out=17:28:24

Aside from matters of economy and trade, history shows that when Britains disengage from European affairs it has not only harmed our national interest but the national interests of countries on the continent as well.
 
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Oct 25, 2017
3,701
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How would a No Deal Brexit vs. May's Deal Brexit impact the ability of British citizens to travel in and out of the EU? Would they have to apply for a visa to even visit as a tourist, or would this solely impact Brits seeking to work in the EU?
 
Oct 27, 2017
135
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How would a No Deal Brexit vs. May's Deal Brexit impact the ability of British citizens to travel in and out of the EU? Would they have to apply for a visa to even visit as a tourist, or would this solely impact Brits seeking to work in the EU?
For tourists they might get short term visa free access to the EU although in future they will have to pay for an EU equivalent of the US ESTA pre-departure authorisation check.

For Brits working and living in the EU we will get what ever the UK imposes on EU nationals in UK. At the moment it looks like we will lose the freedom to travel and work in other EU countries other than the one we are resident in at present. In the worst case we would need to apply for a visa (e.g. EU Blue Card) to live and work and that will be tied to a specific EU country.
 
So apparently the ECJ is going to rule wether Britain can revoke article 50 the day before the meaningful vote. Interesting times ahead for sure. Tim Farron was in the HoC saying we should suspend art.50 and continue negotiating, yeh I don’t see that happening Tim if we revoke Article 50 I can see the EU saying that we can’t invoke it for a certain time period.

JP Morgan saying this morning that the chances of Britain staying in the EU has gone up 40%. Hmmm
 
Oct 31, 2018
182
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So apparently the ECJ is going to rule wether Britain can revoke article 50 the day before the meaningful vote. Interesting times ahead for sure. Tim Farron was in the HoC saying we should suspend art.50 and continue negotiating, yeh I don’t see that happening Tim if we revoke Article 50 I can see the EU saying that we can’t invoke it for a certain time period.

JP Morgan saying this morning that the chances of Britain staying in the EU has gone up 40%. Hmmm
Does he mean ‘remain’ as I would say that is now further away than ever, if he means a Norway type model, I would say that is at 70% chance

It has been said lots of time and worth repeating, there is nowhere near a majority for remaining in the EU in parliament, there is a majority for leaving the EU in name only

Even SNP talk about staying in CU SM etc, but not remaining in EU
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,750
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So apparently the ECJ is going to rule wether Britain can revoke article 50 the day before the meaningful vote. Interesting times ahead for sure. Tim Farron was in the HoC saying we should suspend art.50 and continue negotiating, yeh I don’t see that happening Tim if we revoke Article 50 I can see the EU saying that we can’t invoke it for a certain time period.

JP Morgan saying this morning that the chances of Britain staying in the EU has gone up 40%. Hmmm
No, the European Union will just stop negotiations.
 
Does he mean ‘remain’ as I would say that is now further away than ever, if he means a Norway type model, I would say that is at 70% chance

It has been said lots of time and worth repeating, there is nowhere near a majority for remaining in the EU in parliament, there is a majority for leaving the EU in name only

Even SNP talk about staying in CU SM etc, but not remaining in EU
I don’t understand what he was saying, cancel art.50 and try again when we have a agreed position? The EU won’t have it, we’re in or we are out that is how the EU will see it.

No, the European Union will just stop negotiations.
This what I said they won’t re-open negotiations whilst we are still in.

It’s hopeless isn’t it.
 
Oct 26, 2017
651
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If they do allow the UK to retract Article 50 then people cant really accuse the EU of being unreasonable. I imagine it will only be in this case as its kind of a test case/first case they will close the door and make it harder after.
 
Oct 31, 2018
182
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May has clarified what she meant yesterday about giving Parliament a vote on the backstop

And quelle surprise it is bollocks... she is happy to let MP’s stop us going into the backstop if trade talks fail and it is needed, but of course what she did not say what happened if we refuse to enter the backstop agreement!

Answers on a postcard

hard Brexit with a hard border in NI
 
Oct 28, 2017
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May has clarified what she meant yesterday about giving Parliament a vote on the backstop

And quelle surprise it is bollocks... she is happy to let MP’s stop us going into the backstop if trade talks fail and it is needed, but of course what she did not say what happened if we refuse to enter the backstop agreement!

Answers on a postcard

hard Brexit with a hard border in NI
It's ridiculous, because even if she gave MPs a vote on the backstop and they decided no, the backstop would still come into effect regardless, as the withdrawal treaty doesn't give MPs a veto.
 
Oct 28, 2017
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The rumour is May is trying to get the defeat under 30MP’s so she can go to the EU and say she is close, I just need a bit more...then send it back for a second vote
You can't undermine the will of the British people with a second referendum but you can vote in parliament as much as needed to get the deal approved? Now that's a logic i can get behind ;)
 
Oct 25, 2017
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Chesire, UK
The problem with this chart: No Deal is not an outcome that requires a specific series of actions. It merely requires the passage of time.

The bottom of every line should lead to No Deal, and No Deal should also be sprinkled liberally throughout, with a note that "If this doesn't happen by Midnight CET 29th March, it's No Deal."


"MPs block No Deal" is just a nonsense node to have in a chart like this. MPs do not have the power to stop time, nor do they have the power of the Executive.

The only way to "block" No Deal is to have A Deal. Before March 29th. Midnight. CET. That "deal" might involve an extension. That "deal" might be a revocation of Article 50. But just having a GE or forming a new Government does not in any way preclude No Deal.
 
Nov 5, 2017
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I must admit, I didn't really realise just how little leverage the UK will have at transition point in 2020. I thought the EU was too generous to the UK but if you actually look at the decision sequence: it's a fiendishly clever vise the EU will have put the UK in.

In mid 2020 if the trade deal isn't ready (it won't be) the UK can decide to ask the EU to extend the transition by one or two years or we fall into the backstop (which contrary to the bleating is actually pretty good for the EU; legally problematic, but since the EU has a trade surplus in goods and a trade deficit in Services with the UK it's not really that bad). For the UK it's both politically problematic and economically problematic to go into the backstop and the UK wide CU so they'll want to avoid it.

But here's the rub, if you look at the deal, Extension of Transition is decided by the Joint Committee (Art.132), which is composed of representatives of UK and EU so the EU have to agree, and at that point if there's no agreement it goes to the CJEU not arbitration. Now there's a lot of goodwill blah, blah, blah in there, but since the UK and EU will really have only been talking about trade for about 6 months (after the European elections and the subsequent re-configuring of the Commission is out of the way) the EU can easily say there's not enough currently agreed to be able say a transition extension would be enough. It's another clicking clock, one which the EU can say we'll need to at least get agreement on say Fisheries or Agriculture etc before we'd have confidence the current agreement is far enough along.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,720
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London
MPs block No Deal" is just a nonsense node to have in a chart like this. MPs do not have the power to stop time, nor do they have the power of the Executive.
The PM that forces the country into a no deal against Parliament and a divided country had better have an emergency hiding hole when it all goes tits up. She won't like the precedent of parliament treading on the toes of the executive but i think she will back off with what is at stake.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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Brexit Barometer on Radio 5 Live winds me up every morning. This morning's caller - Lee - was explaining how there was going to be no fall in GDP because it was as made up as the Millennium Bug. He then proceeded to explain how he personally had disproved the Bug to 6 different people by setting his video recorder in to 15 minutes past midnight, 2000 in the summer of 1999.

He then called Mark Carny 'economically illiterate'.
 
Oct 25, 2017
344
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London
Brexit Barometer on Radio 5 Live winds me up every morning. This morning's caller - Lee - was explaining how there was going to be no fall in GDP because it was as made up as the Millennium Bug. He then proceeded to explain how he personally had disproved the Bug to 6 different people by setting his video recorder in to 15 minutes past midnight, 2000 in the summer of 1999.

He then called Mark Carny 'economically illiterate'.
Phenomenal stuff.

The delusion some people have will forever be baffling.
 
Oct 30, 2017
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I love how we don't take the millennium bug thing as a great example of proper planning and implementation of a complex set of fixes. Nope, because aeroplanes didn't fall out of the sky it was all a hoax.

How some of these people don't drown in the shower is beyond me.