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Deleted member 31104

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
2,572
He has until Saturday the 19th to act, one way or another.

If he fails to fulfil his duties under the Act, court proceedings will begin on Monday the 21st. Justice can move very swiftly when required, so I would expect some sort of remedy in place by Friday the 25th at the latest.

Parliament is due to sit throughout, so outside of the judiciary there is still the possibility of further legislative measures.

The Inner House of the Court of Session is booked for a hearing on Monday. If he fails to comply with undertakings given to the court, I'd be positive they'd issue a remedy on Monday or Tuesday by the latest.
 

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,496
I wonder if BJ will try to get around benn by asking the EU to delay the decision on a extension for another week or so.

Depending on how well negotiations are going i could see the EU calling a emergency summit for late october to offer some good will to boris and ERG.

Boris can argue he requested a extension and will stay away from legal trouble.
 

danowat

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,783
I wonder if BJ will try to get around benn by asking the EU to delay the decision on a extension for another week or so.

Depending on how well negotiations are going i could see the EU calling a emergency summit for late october to offer some good will to boris and ERG.

Boris can argue he requested a extension and will stay away from legal trouble.
Who gets to choose the ditch he dies in?, referendum?
 

WillyGubbins

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,466
Glasgow
I wonder if BJ will try to get around benn by asking the EU to delay the decision on a extension for another week or so.

Depending on how well negotiations are going i could see the EU calling a emergency summit for late october to offer some good will to boris and ERG.

Boris can argue he requested a extension and will stay away from legal trouble.

Surely it specifies a minimum duration for the extension? Otherwise he could just ask for an extra 5 minutes.
 

Garfield

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 31, 2018
2,772
I think the EU and Johnson will get a deal done in broad strokes this week. There's too much positive mood music coming from the EU, and it looks like Johnson has folded on pretty much everything. Basically the shape of the agreement appears to be that NI will practically be in the EU customs union but legally will not via a complex, costly and completely unworkable series of tariff rebates. This figleaf allows Johnson to argue to NI is out along with GB. But ultimately in practice the EU tariff will apply (and frankly I doubt any rebate will ever be sought except perhaps by the largest of businesses it simply will not be cost effective).

The main sticking point seems to be that the EU seems to be only willing to take the risk of the UK collecting tariffs for it, if the tariff differential is non-existent on UK-EU goods (and vice versa) i.e the majority of the incoming goods. You'd think a comprehensive free trade agreement would deal with that (although you run into issues about rules of origin and the general low utilisation of FTA's), but the EU will not give the UK tariff free trade without the UK agreeing to Level Playing Field provisions and Johnson would lose the ERG if he agrees to that.

Whether Parliament votes for it or not is an issue. I could see 10 or so ERG hold outs if the DUP don't vote for it (they might if they have enough of a fig leaf because the DUP are in a bit of a bind as their financial backers in NI want a deal), along with about 5 of the ex-Tory wets (maybe up to 10 if they choose to abstain), so it'd still require about 10-15 Labour votes. As a party Labour would be mad to give Johnson the victory but individual MP's may make alternative calculus for their own survival.


As I understand there is 20 Labour MPs who will support a deal as they are in a leave area.. obviously this is what Kinnock is saying, the number could be lower or higher
 

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
33,213
I think the EU and Johnson will get a deal done in broad strokes this week. There's too much positive mood music coming from the EU, and it looks like Johnson has folded on pretty much everything. Basically the shape of the agreement appears to be that NI will practically be in the EU customs union but legally will not via a complex, costly and completely unworkable series of tariff rebates. This figleaf allows Johnson to argue to NI is out along with GB. But ultimately in practice the EU tariff will apply (and frankly I doubt any rebate will ever be sought except perhaps by the largest of businesses it simply will not be cost effective).

The main sticking point seems to be that the EU seems to be only willing to take the risk of the UK collecting tariffs for it, if the tariff differential is non-existent on UK-EU goods (and vice versa) i.e the majority of the incoming goods. You'd think a comprehensive free trade agreement would deal with that (although you run into issues about rules of origin and the general low utilisation of FTA's), but the EU will not give the UK tariff free trade without the UK agreeing to Level Playing Field provisions and Johnson would lose the ERG if he agrees to that.

Whether Parliament votes for it or not is an issue. I could see 10 or so ERG hold outs if the DUP don't vote for it (they might if they have enough of a fig leaf because the DUP are in a bit of a bind as their financial backers in NI want a deal), along with about 5 of the ex-Tory wets (maybe up to 10 if they choose to abstain), so it'd still require about 10-15 Labour votes. As a party Labour would be mad to give Johnson the victory but individual MP's may make alternative calculus for their own survival.


I'm worried this could be a ploy to get a shorter extension 'to get the deal done and through parliament' and that somehow renders Benn inert so they can then run the clock down to no deal. Or 'my deal or no deal' kind of thing.
 

jelly

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
33,841
Isn't this kinda mad that it might happen after all or are we still playing games? Is there really enough MPs who will vote this through on Saturday. I'm getting a bit worried now.
 

Deleted member 31104

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
2,572
Looks like a deal is nearly done. Barnier has told the GAC that there's a good chance the EU and UK could have a consolidated legal text to present by Thursday.

Edit: maybe not, the briefing is all over the shop.

Looks like the DUP are saying nope as well.



 

Zastava

Member
Feb 19, 2018
2,108
London
Not really sure what they're supposed to do retrospectively - the presenter pushed back on the guests comments and it was a live broadcast.

I don't think media should be censured for people saying controversial things in the course of an interview.
They're not supposed to do anything retrospectively. What they are supposed to do is acknowledge he is unfit to be on the BBC and will no longer be invited on, which is what I asked them to do in my complaint, and something they singularly failed to do.
 

Cammington

Member
Oct 27, 2017
346
Hold on I've taken my eyes off of Brexit for a few weeks - are we now saying that all the ardent ERG surrender bill lot are going to fold and vote through whatever deal Johnson comes back with?
 

Ushojax

Member
Oct 30, 2017
5,939
I think it'll pass (in parliament) if and only if there's a referendum attached.

I think it will go through on it's own, there are enough Labour leavers to take it over the line and the ERG know that it's either this Brexit or no Brexit. The Tories know that no deal or a further delay are electoral poison, Boris never cared about this stuff to begin with so he will compromise on anything if it means getting a deal. Getting a deal is the best route for him to win the next GE which is all he cares about at this point.

The Tories would rather retain power with a softer Brexit than lose power with a no deal.
 

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,496
I guess the most important thing will be how boris can sell whatever they come up with. It'll be basically May with NI only backstop but if he can sell it as a win I can see it passing.
 

Kalor

Resettlement Advisor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,655
They need the DUP on board and I don't see that happening. A no deal Brexit won't harm their election prospects much so they don't gain from compromising their ideals, however bad they may be.
 

Unclebenny

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,770
I'm seriously hoping this is all posturing, as I can't believe we could end up at this half arsed, negotiated in a week, hodge podge of a deal.

We've basically negatived ourselves into a corner, we didn't want THE deal, we didn't want no deal, the electorate is sick of it all and we end up with whatever comes out of these talks.
 

jelly

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
33,841
Could the goverment wiggle out of any deal down the line, saying sure whatever EU, totes agree then past 31st Oct start to ignore the agreements they don't like ?
 

Ushojax

Member
Oct 30, 2017
5,939
I'm seriously hoping this is all posturing, as I can't believe we could end up at this half arsed, negotiated in a week, hodge podge of a deal.

We've basically negatived ourselves into a corner, we didn't want THE deal, we didn't want no deal, the electorate is sick of it all and we end up with whatever comes out of these talks.

The commentariat always thought it would come down to the last days before the deadline, it's not a great surprise. It's not like they are coming up with new ideas, just regurgitating a previous version of the backstop. It will come down to whether Boris can spin it as a glorious Red White and Blue Brexit that also doffs the cap to our dear friends in Europe. With the power of the newspapers behind him he will probably be able to pull it off.
 

jelly

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
33,841
Yeah, I've heard the narrative the EU always makes a deal in the last hours but from what I gather, they haven't caved, the UK has and is trying to make something old, new but different, that isn't really and hope nobody notices.
 

Deleted member 31104

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Nov 5, 2017
2,572
I guess the most important thing will be how boris can sell whatever they come up with. It'll be basically May with NI only backstop but if he can sell it as a win I can see it passing.

It's actually more than the backstop, a lot more. This is NI in the SM (for goods) and a defacto Customs Union with the EU. The only difference is the UK is pretending that NI is still in the UK's 'custom union' (it is legally but in practice it'll be using the EU customs code and enforcing EU tariffs so practically it's in a CU with the EU)

The backstop was only a halfway house, this the permanent end state in NI.

This is a very good deal for the EU if they can get LPF commitments, if they can't I doubt they take the risk.
 
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Deleted member 31104

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
2,572
Yeah, I've heard the narrative the EU always makes a deal in the last hours but from what I gather, they haven't caved, the UK has and is trying to make something old, new but different, that isn't really and hope nobody notices.

The EU only makes internal deals at the last minute to keep unity, external deals it doesn't. The EU is very concerned with precedent on external deals: it doesn't rush into external deals.
 

Unclebenny

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,770
The commentariat always thought it would come down to the last days before the deadline, it's not a great surprise. It's not like they are coming up with new ideas, just regurgitating a previous version of the backstop. It will come down to whether Boris can spin it as a glorious Red White and Blue Brexit that also doffs the cap to our dear friends in Europe. With the power of the newspapers behind him he will probably be able to pull it off.

The thing is, I suspect the majority of the public would have been happy with May's deal, many then were happy to default to no deal. So I again, suspect, they will be happy with Boris's deal, even though it represents a climb down from our government.

The details of Brexit have never mattered, if they did, we wouldn't be leaving Europe, as it's stupid. It's all about the aesthetic of sticking it to the man, the man this time being our closest neighbours, who we have convinced ourselves are trying to fleece us.

I just want us to leave with the best deal possible, if we must leave. Instead it feels like we have just ended up with wahtever deal was available because all th bluster turned out to just be bluster. We are not so vital to everyone else in Europe that they will significantly disadvantage themselves our our benefit. Who knew?

I am actually expecting nothing to be completed, as I think this is just posturing from all sides, who also expect nothing to happen. The air of acceptance, even from the ERG is just making me nervous .
 

Ushojax

Member
Oct 30, 2017
5,939
The thing is, I suspect the majority of the public would have been happy with May's deal, many then were happy to default to no deal. So I again, suspect, they will be happy with Boris's deal, even though it represents a climb down from our government.

The details of Brexit have never mattered, if they did, we wouldn't be leaving Europe, as it's stupid. It's all about the aesthetic of sticking it to the man, the man this time being our closest neighbours, who we have convinced ourselves are trying to fleece us.

I just want us to leave with the best deal possible, if we must leave. Instead it feels like we have just ended up with wahtever deal was available because all th bluster turned out to just be bluster. We are not so vital to everyone else in Europe that they will significantly disadvantage themselves our our benefit. Who knew?

I am actually expecting nothing to be completed, as I think this is just posturing from all sides, who also expect nothing to happen. The air of acceptance, even from the ERG is just making me nervous .

As you say, this was never about leaving with the best possible deal.

The Tories had two prorities once the Leave vote happened:

1. Retain power
2. Get a deal that allows for financial deregulation

Nothing else matters. If they have to piss on the DUP then they will do it, there are enough idiots on the Labour side who will push it through.
 

nature boy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,877
There's no way a deal can be reached this week if the UK hasn't provided a legal text.

Just the translation and legal scrubs to be presented to the EU 27 will take some days.
Obvious posturing from the EU
 

Simon21

Member
Apr 25, 2018
1,134
I stand corrected... I think. It's still a weird argument when we have data showing this helps the Tories and only supposition that it doesn't.

Actually I believe it's different for different forms of ID. For example people with driving licences are more likely to lean Tory, while people with bus passes are more likely to lean Labour.
 

Deleted member 862

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,646

Ubbr14Km.png
 

Flammable D

Member
Oct 30, 2017
15,205
Not really sure what they're supposed to do retrospectively - the presenter pushed back on the guests comments and it was a live broadcast.

I don't think media should be censured for people saying controversial things in the course of an interview.
1. Don't book him in the first place, this isn't his first rodeo being a shithead by FAR, you're booking him to cause controversy not for his nuanced and informed takes
2. DON'T BOOK HIM AGAIN THE NEXT WEEK
 

Brotherhood93

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,826
It's not surprising they seem resigned to an extension. Said it before but if Boris can't get the DUP to back his proposals then its hard to see how it possibly passes. I'm not convinced they'll be able to get the most hardcore ERG members on board if they can't get the DUP either. The facts seem to be there is nothing that is both acceptable to the EU and to these groups. There are also 9 Independents, expelled Labour or Tory MPs, who voted against May's deal so they can probably be ruled out too. Even with the ERG and retaining all the votes of those no longer whipped to vote for it they'd be needing over a dozen Labour MPs to get it through. If that happens then the Labour party is done at the next election.
 

Psychotext

Member
Oct 30, 2017
16,763
Even if we accept that they'll somehow work out a deal... we still very much need them to extend as the last thing we want is some rushed mess that could end up screwing us all even more than we're already getting screwed.
 

eonden

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,116
Quantum Brexit deal: both existing and not existing at the same time, with the situation changing if you look at it.
 

Spaghetti

Member
Dec 2, 2017
2,740
Not really sure what they're supposed to do retrospectively - the presenter pushed back on the guests comments and it was a live broadcast.

I don't think media should be censured for people saying controversial things in the course of an interview.
The BBC keeps inviting these fringe right-wing figures on to say whatever the fuck they like. Doesn't matter if the presenter pushed back, the BBC continually gives these freaks a platform and handwaves any accusations of irresponsibility.
 

excowboy

Member
Oct 29, 2017
692
Just seeing on Twitter that the negotiations have broken down as the UK team has run out of fag packets AND napkins.
 

Deleted member 34788

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 29, 2017
3,545
Yeah, the more I read up on the talks the more this is a play by the gov to try and get around the Benn act. They trotted JRG to say the HoC could vite in principle on a deal. So just a bunch of nothings from the gov.

It makes precisely zero sense the government of leave are folding like cheap suits when the majority of them can cash in in a no deal brexit and be set up for multiple lifetimes. This is all trying to avoid any extension, and trying to throw the dup under the bus in the hope of doing so at any cost. Much like may tried, and did a better job of doing so, it's going to crash hard.


Barnier has told the eu peeps an Irish sea border must be erected for the deal to pass. The negotiators migh agree to this, but it won't pass damn near anywhere else.
 

Spaghetti

Member
Dec 2, 2017
2,740
I stand corrected... I think. It's still a weird argument when we have data showing this helps the Tories and only supposition that it doesn't.
Moran's extended comments don't particularly explain her weird framing of the issue (except maybe some 4th dimensional flip-flopping), and neither do statistics about what kind of ID voters of X party are more likely to have.

It's still voter suppression on the basis that it becomes harder to vote, especially for marginalised and impoverished people. Don't buy the bullshit from certain Lib Dem/establishment stans in here.
 

Ravensmash

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,797
The BBC keeps inviting these fringe right-wing figures on to say whatever the fuck they like. Doesn't matter if the presenter pushed back, the BBC continually gives these freaks a platform and handwaves any accusations of irresponsibility.


Eh, I'm just not that incensed that people like him appear tbh.

But fair enough, understand the point.
 
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