What do you mean with change in that context? Guaidó actually taking power and then preparing legit elections? Nobody knows, maybe never.
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Can anyone explain what's happening in Venezuela? Dictator Maduro hated by majority but, Trump Admin / VP Pence and Bolsonaro backing opposition?
- Thread starter Iloelemen
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Maduro took control of the country in a coup. The legitimate government has been overthrown. That's why the analogy works.
Russia is backing Maduro. They just sent a bunch of mercs into the country. It's not "hypocrisy" to back one side or the other- it's what most nations are going to be doing because "being right in the neutral middle" is not going to be a position you can take- you will be asked to freeze assets. If you do it, you're supporting the opposition. If you don't, you're supporting Maduro. There is no avoiding the question, you must make the choice. And so nations are choosing.
Maduro has already taken power with a coup. Which is obviously why he's afraid of the military turning on him! And if he were just a bengin annoying dictator people would look the other way. But he's not. Millions of refugees have spilled over the border of the country. Millions more could potentially follow. His neighbors want this problem solved.
And yes, this could escalate into a fullscale civil war. But that's not on the opposition figures, that's on the man who seized control of the country using force and destroyed democratic institutions. It's like saying Leia is the actual problem, not the Emperor.
I have and I am somewhat familiar with US interference around the globe (I won't claim to be an expert). However, you clearly do not understand why Guaido isn't merely a self proclaimed president and why it's a legitimate claim.
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Once again revealing your lack of lore knowledge. Sheev was acclaimed Emperor by the Senate, which was legitimately elected in accordance with the local customs of each member system. Leia's "Alliance to Restore the Republic" was in league with known Separatists like Cassian Andor and terrorists like Saw Gerrera, not to mention traitors such as Mon Mothma.
Next thing you'll tell me that Stalin wasn't genuinely repeatedly elected as General Secretary by the representatives sent by the soviets!
Good photo (needs to be updated with the EU countries ultimatum)
Showing that the US is not alone. Look at all those Far Right Nations supporting Guaido
Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and specially Brazil are Right to Far Right Nations. Are you being sarcastic? If not, what are you talking about? The rest of the countries of "global leaders" are just part of the US influence sphere, which is also the usual allies. Supporting Maduro is the Russian sphere of influence. Calling for dialogue are probably the only sane countries left.
(it isn't)
the article in their constitution that keeps getting tossed around has been intentionally misread by guaido, it is a) it is only relevant if maduro "abandons his duties" and b) power would be asserted by the vice president which last time i checked, guaido is not
rimming? I wanna girl who can tongue-fuck
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I don't think this is the top priority on the minds of Venezuelans but ok.
WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK
rimming? I wanna girl who can tongue-fuck
( ͡º ͜ʖ ͡º)
Given the activities he's been up to by making himself the country's dictator I'd think this would be a charge with merit.
It says that the lack of a president can by due to many factors, like the National Assembly decreeing abandonment of his duties. Another article states he must guarantee the rights and freedom of his people, for example, and he must uphold the Constitution, which he most certainly did not. The popular revoke of his mandate is also in article 233 as a cause for declaring a lack of a president.
It also says the Supreme Tribunal of Justice can destitute the president and it can also appoint a medical team to assess his physical and mental capacity (or lack thereof). I think a guy that talks to birds and says he traveled to the future and back seems pretty mentally unstable. None of these can happen because he filled the tribunal with his cronies. In fact, the exiled supreme supreme tribunal of justice, appointed by the actually elected by the people National Assembly, sentenced Maduro to 18 years of prison, during which, he could obviously not hold political positions. Of course, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice in power, created by the Maduro regime, does not recognize this.
If there's no President until January 10th (the date when the president takes office), the president of the National Assembly takes over, not the vice president. Ergo, if the elections were a sham (which about 50 countries agreed upon iirc) and Maduro routinely breaks the Constitution, there was no legitimate President until that date, so Guaido has a legitimate claim.
Edit: Edited for grammar and a few more details.
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Embarrassment. Lefties say Maduro isn't a real leftist yet support continuing his dictatorship anyway :thinking:
Why do we need to back anyone? Why do we need to intervene at all? Why not let other countries do something instead of depending on the USA to do it?
Attitudes like this is why we get Rohingya genocides and no one bats an eye, and it will keep happening. It's not even like the US is intervening in any major way. They are simply declaring Maduro an illegitimate president (which he is–no lies detected).
I'm not arguing with you on that, he is illegitimate.
My point is that the USA doesn't need to be the World Police force. It's attitudes like yours that lead to pointless wars that end in American brothers and sisters coming home in body bags because "The USA should do something."
Again, "simply declaring" has resulted in thousands of victims in the past. Without a single troop on the ground. And if in case that the US using their diplomats as bait, appointing someone with history of war crimes and backing coups and death squads isn't suspicious to you that unlike many other countries, who are calling for dialogue an mediation to solve the crisis, the US is obviously pushing for a violent outcome, then you're fooling yourself. This is precisely because we should be thinking about the people first, about solving things and not promoting a war.
What possible incentive does Maduro have to give up power?
One has to admit who's backing either side makes it hard to figure out what's really going on. On the one you got Russia and China and on the other you got Brazil, Israel and the US, none of which are all that grand from human rights perspectives, especially considering Brazil and US's current leadership. And then you hear Venezuelans on both sides saying "no, the OTHER side are the real fake Venezuelans" (the pro-Maduros are bots, the pro-Guaidos are right-wing, rich expats), and it's just... a mess.
Like PoC were being burned alive there by racist anti-Maduro people a while back, so it's not as if everyone against him is innocent. But then, since WW2 and maybe arguably the Korean War, American interventionism has really helped no one...
Like PoC were being burned alive there by racist anti-Maduro people a while back, so it's not as if everyone against him is innocent. But then, since WW2 and maybe arguably the Korean War, American interventionism has really helped no one...
maybe maduro giving up power isn't the best resolution in the short term if the alternatives are civil war or an american intervention
trying to force assad out didn't do the people of syria or the surrounding countries any favors
Sure, it makes it hard if you simply willfully ignore all the other countries and organizations that are backing Guaidó and also all the testimonies from Venezuelan people...
Then what is left is the status quo as dialogue will accomplish nothing because Maduro will not weaken his grasp on power because he knows that is what is keeping him alive/out of prison.
This, also is not like other options haven't been tried again and again. That been said, I believe the opposition is truly trying to prevent armed conflict, and I agree with that approach
???? I specifically said it's hard to tell which Venezuelans to listen to. Again, both sides are outright saying the other side is lying or fake. I hate both sides takes, but quite literally it's what's going on.
To be clear, I truly believe that Maduro is no good and needs to go. What I'm not sure of is if US interventionism - which includes backing a coup- is the moral thing to do given how it's turned out extremely poorly in almost every instance, particularly in LatAm. Mexico, Uruguay, and the Vatican are attempting peaceful resolution, which is good.
taking "testimony from venezuelans" that already align with your view of the situation is the same as trusting as gospel "testimony from brazilians" on the political situation in brazil, or "testimony from americans" on what's happening right now in the united states. aka not useless information, but you can't take random people's anecdotes as the cold facts about a very complicated upheaval.
Clearly you are blind to the obvious US interference. I mean John Bolton of all people involved in this ? How worst can it be ? One of the more hawkish neocon involved ! Clearly Neocons have the best interest of people of Venezuela at heart ... of course the Oil reserves are pure coincidence in that equation. Here is an interesting article from the Post on Bolton involvement in that US power move :
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...ntervention-venezuela/?utm_term=.732f41ea8a7f
Here is an article on the special envoy, a true peacemaker...
https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/01/2...-career/index.html?r=https://edition.cnn.com/
Here are some quotes from your WaPo article
Did you even read the article?
You need to work on your reading comprehension, never have I touched on that subject. I bolded the part of your post about Guaido and responded merely about him and the legitimacy of his - and the democratically elected National Assembly's - claim. You should also read the links you share better, they don't serve your purpose as much as you might think (and to be clear, I'm always very weary of USA's foreign intervention).
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If I read the articlr ? Are you stupid or what ? I posted the article. So if you read it, it's in line with what I been saying for several posts : the US intervention in Venezuela affairs. And it's clear as day, ( as if it wasn't obvious before...).
Since dialog is the only way he could stay alive or out of jail.
There are this options:
He refuses anything, war explodes and he either is killed or imprisoned, and the "US imperialism" takes over either way.
He commit to mediation, with amnisti in the table, to call either for elections or for reforms. Guaidó already said it's an option, Maduro already said it's an option, however the US keeps pushing for something else, weird isn't it.
I think you clearly did not read those articles. As the Post article CLEARLY lays out the discussion between the Trump administration and Guaido BEFORE the self proclamation move. This was a coordinate action with Pompeo and Bolton at the helm on the US side.
Again, this is a proof - if needed - that the US are involved in this Crisis. You can point out at the legitimacy of Guaido as legitimate president all you want to, the fact he is supported by Neocons in Washington. And that's bad if you lool at history of Neocons track record in the region.
And if you read the second article, you will see that the special envoy for the Venezuela crisis,Elliot Abrams, has a dark past with deep involvement in the Iran - Contra scandal of the 80s.
So I've been consistent with my concerns with US involvement in this crisis throughout the thread. And the articles are only proving that further.
Because your post is highlighting that the people making these policies are hawkish and that the envoy isn't a peacemaker. You are implying that will use military force to oust Maduro.
The world should intervene in Venezuelan affairs because Venezuela is experiencing a massive humanitarian crisis that is even impacting the neighboring countries due to millions of Venezuelans fleeing their country.
The rub is what sort of intervention it should be.
I honestly have no idea how anyone can be opposed to coordinating diplomatically with the surrounding regional governments and the opposition, having them take the lead, and using limited economic pressure tools to put pressure on Maduro that his reign is untenable.
I mean, what's your plan?
Hope that Maduro comes to his senses and out of the kindness of his heart steps down or stops being a fucking greedy, stupid asshole who seems hell-bent on ruining his country?
That isn't true at all.
The WaPo link that Actarus posted makes it perfectly clear that the administration right now is using diplomatic and economic pressure to hopefully force change.
They aren't taking a militaristic coup approach
Where did Maduro actually say that he was fine with reforms?
Personally, I find that very hard to believe that even if he did say it that he will do it or it will be anything meaningful because his survival depends on him staying in power. And no, I don't think US military action is all that likely.
Bolton has been in office for like a year. If he had his way Iran would be a smoking crater by now.
Piecake said all that needs to be said about the articles, as they show a much less hawkish and warmongering posture from the US administration than what you make it out to be. Which doesn't mean anyone should think US has no shady vested interests or that their involvement was, is and might be all roses. I don't even think anyone has been taking that position here. Maybe it will eventually escalate into military response, I don't know, but the articles show a diplomatic stance, to the point of the WaPo writer using the word "uncharacteristically".
The fact that there were talks between Guaido and the US before the proclamation has zero influence on the legitimacy or importance of his claim. The people starving, with no access to medicine, the ones arrested, tortured, killed or forced to flee do not care about "a bad look". They want good living conditions in their homeland and they deserve a leader democratically elected by them and their people. The crisis would be there with or without US involvement.
Guaido and the National Assembly want to depose a dictator who's inflicting terrible suffering on his people (with repercussions in the rest of the world due to the massive exodus) and hold new elections. It's perfectly natural and logical that he and the Assembly need international allies, especially when Maduro has the army in his hand and is backed up by nations like Russia. In fact, it would be quite dumb to make a claim without reaching out to potential allies.
Most of the international community has denounced Maduro's elections as fraudulent long ago, while authoritarian far-left regimes accepted them. Russia, China and Cuba have been exerting immense influence on Venezuela for many years. The catastrophic results of the Maduro (and Chavez) regime on the people are plain to see. Focusing on the fact that some of Guaido's international supporters, namely US, are neocons with a bad historical track record is missing the forest for the trees, or rather, missing the plight of the Venezuelan people for ideological reasons.
Indeed, but violence against US diplomats could escalate matters significantly.
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There are millions of Venezuelan refugees right now and the power grabs are recent.
This isn't a shitty established dictator with a relatively stable country, this is a county that's faling apart with a baby dictator who was the one who decided to abandon peaceful transition of power. Because yes, some form of armed conflict is what you get when you decide to abandon armed conflict because politics is a substitute for physical warfare.
Everyone bitching about Guaido sneaking around conspiring with the U.S and etc needs to realize, no shit hes secretly working behind closed doors, his predecessors have been jailed, exiled, or murdered, hes literally working against a dictatorship hellbent on remaining in power. Also realize that Guaido and the National Assembly have been sidelined as a government institution and dont have any forces behind them except the people congregating in rallies with them. They have no military forces aligned with them (publicly), Maduro theoretically could order their mass arrest and crush the National Assembly right now except for the people protesting, the willingness of the military forces to carry out the orders, and maybe the risk of an American carrier fleet inbound on his ass.
Also remember, the U.S is still like the top dog in the world, still leader of a massive number of alliances, still carries tons of international weight, and is also Venezuela's top trading partner, any international coordinated actions require U.S support and assistance (like denying Maduro access to international financial systems) , as shown by the coordinated approval of Guaido's declaration by the Lima Group right after the U.S.
Everyone is bitching about U.S involvement, well, as much as everyone wants to downplay the usefulness of the U.S, and as much as I don't want this to be true, but maybe the only reason Guaido hasn't gone his ass arrested, or the protesters suppressed like in 2017, is due to risk of U.S intervention. Like in 2017, mass protests were held, and nothing stopped Maduro, what makes you think this time will be different? Maybe its actually time for a U.S carrier to come down and lounge around.
Your all calling for dialogue, there was dialogue already, and it failed. Isn't it clear looking at the progress of things that Maduro isn't backing down, the situation isn't getting better, and being cautious and accommodating will only weaken the opposition, and make it that Maduro will be the only figure left to negotiate in the future for helping the people of Venezuela?
Also remember, the U.S is still like the top dog in the world, still leader of a massive number of alliances, still carries tons of international weight, and is also Venezuela's top trading partner, any international coordinated actions require U.S support and assistance (like denying Maduro access to international financial systems) , as shown by the coordinated approval of Guaido's declaration by the Lima Group right after the U.S.
Everyone is bitching about U.S involvement, well, as much as everyone wants to downplay the usefulness of the U.S, and as much as I don't want this to be true, but maybe the only reason Guaido hasn't gone his ass arrested, or the protesters suppressed like in 2017, is due to risk of U.S intervention. Like in 2017, mass protests were held, and nothing stopped Maduro, what makes you think this time will be different? Maybe its actually time for a U.S carrier to come down and lounge around.
Your all calling for dialogue, there was dialogue already, and it failed. Isn't it clear looking at the progress of things that Maduro isn't backing down, the situation isn't getting better, and being cautious and accommodating will only weaken the opposition, and make it that Maduro will be the only figure left to negotiate in the future for helping the people of Venezuela?
Well the fact that they are in our back yard and a part of the OAS, which we are also a part of, is one of the reasons.
According to the BBC the diplomats are being allowed to stay.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-47023370
Because you will be asked to do things like freeze Maduros accounts. And then, you must make a choice. Either you freeze the accounts, siding with the opposition, or you don't, siding with Maduro.
The idea that you can stay "neutral" is a ridiculous view borne of selfishness, privilege, and delusion about the realities of geopolitics.
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