Thanks for this because I felt like I was taking crazy pills when everybody kept saying this should be peak year and I was remembering year 2 as the biggest year and year 3 being a drop off typically but didn't have the data so didn't want to bring it up. You do great work. I bookmark a ton of your posts for reference.
Platform Peak Full Year # Year Saturn 1 1996 PS1 3 1998 N64 1 1997 Dreamcast 0 1999 PS2 2 2002 GBA 2 2003 Xbox 3 2004 GameCube 2 2003 NDS 5 2009 PSP 3 2008 Xbox 360 6 2011 PS3 5 2011 Wii 2 2008 3DS 0 2011 Vita 0 2012 Wii U 2 2014 PS4 2 2015 Xbox One 2 2015 Switch 3 2020
Distribution
Full Year 0 (Less than 12 months): 3
Full Year 1: 2
Full Year 2: 7
Full Year 3: 4
Full Year 5: 2
Full Year 6: 1
In the US, year 2 after launch is the typical time when a platform peaks. Outside of that you have either a bomb like Dreamcast and dying industries with handhelds like 3DS or Vita at launch year peaking, or special circumstances extending the peak year beyond 2.
PS1 1998 was the year following FF7 and the $149 price cut, and a $129 cut in September 1998.
Xbox had Halo 2 in 2004 and a $149 price cut.
DS had the DSi launch in 2009.
PSP was basically flat with 2007.
360 and PS3 had Kinect/Move to push for a second wind in the generation.
Switch had the pandemic.
This is not saying anything on Xbox's performance, only noting that US peak years are usually Year 2. PS5 is showing this in effect now that November has passed, where ~1M could've been in 2022 had there been enough supply then, but instead it got pushed to Q1 2023. PS5 2023 even with these additional sales is only going to be above PS5 2022 by less than 1M.
Thanks for this.
Platform Peak Full Year # Year Saturn 1 1996 PS1 3 1998 N64 1 1997 Dreamcast 0 1999 PS2 2 2002 GBA 2 2003 Xbox 3 2004 GameCube 2 2003 NDS 5 2009 PSP 3 2008 Xbox 360 6 2011 PS3 5 2011 Wii 2 2008 3DS 0 2011 Vita 0 2012 Wii U 2 2014 PS4 2 2015 Xbox One 2 2015 Switch 3 2020
Distribution
Full Year 0 (Less than 12 months): 3
Full Year 1: 2
Full Year 2: 7
Full Year 3: 4
Full Year 5: 2
Full Year 6: 1
In the US, year 2 after launch is the typical time when a platform peaks. Outside of that you have either a bomb like Dreamcast and dying industries with handhelds like 3DS or Vita at launch year peaking, or special circumstances extending the peak year beyond 2.
PS1 1998 was the year following FF7 and the $149 price cut, and a $129 cut in September 1998.
Xbox had Halo 2 in 2004 and a $149 price cut.
DS had the DSi launch in 2009.
PSP was basically flat with 2007.
360 and PS3 had Kinect/Move to push for a second wind in the generation.
Switch had the pandemic.
This is not saying anything on Xbox's performance, only noting that US peak years are usually Year 2. PS5 is showing this in effect now that November has passed, where ~1M could've been in 2022 had there been enough supply then, but instead it got pushed to Q1 2023. PS5 2023 even with these additional sales is only going to be above PS5 2022 by less than 1M.
Has anyone actually seen a disc drive-less PS5 slim in the wild? All I see is the CoD bundle.
Any time hardware sales criticism is brought up in every sales thread for a year or older.How many people are actually even saying Xbox doesn't care about console sales tho. It's such a small amount of people but then all arguments kind of get grouped in and conflated with the most extreme.
You can't in any way or shape compare MS current standing in the space to what the GBA was or what the DS turned out to be.The next gen Xbox talk being "too" soon and then this thread reminded me how the GBA lasted what, 3 years before the DS? And still managed to sell a shit load. Just insane
lmaoThe next gen Xbox talk being "too" soon and then this thread reminded me how the GBA lasted what, 3 years before the DS? And still managed to sell a shit load. Just insane
lmao
DS was a nintendo handheld, there is no reality where ms accomplishes what nintendo did with the DS. I dont even think nintendo can top the DS😂
I don't come in the sales threads often but is the argument being made by these people you see (mostly) that Xbox literally does not care at all or that they don't care as much as they had to in the past because of their diversification strategy? Because this is where the conflating comes in. Saying they don't care as much, or that they no longer have to care as much, about console sales is a valid argument to make and you can have an actual discussion about it. And Mat isn't saying anything about it in the Tweet. Saying they literally don't care isn't a serious person having a serious discussion.Any time hardware sales criticism is brought up in every sales thread for a year or older.
The argument is not that MS does not care about hardware at all, but that is no longer the focus and not important which is also not true. Hardware drives software, hardware drives services, hardware drives accessory and licensed product sales. We know this from sub growth flatlining and Phil's interview, I am sure they would like GP to take off outside of hardware but that is not reality.I don't come in the sales threads often but is the argument being made by these people you see (mostly) that Xbox literally does not care at all or that they don't care as much as they had to in the past because of their diversification strategy? Because this is where the conflating comes in. Saying they don't care as much, or that they no longer have to care as much, about console sales is a valid argument to make and you can have an actual discussion about it. And Mat isn't saying anything about it in the Tweet. Saying they literally don't care isn't a serious person having a serious discussion.
Essentially, to me, the tweet is a 'duh' but I've seen it try to be used as an argument against the idea above that Xbox is de-emphasizing console as the only place to play their games and that naturally comes with a downturn in console sales built in. So when someone says "Xbox doesn't care..." and follows it with reasoning about PC and mobile, the argument being made isn't the counter to Mat's argument. It's an entirely different discussion.
View: https://twitter.com/MatPiscatella/status/1735311524590481574
It is kind of funny how the "MS isn't concerned about console sales" argument is supporting the "MS should go third party" argument in a roundabout way.
The argument is not that MS does not care about hardware at all, but that is no longer the focus and not important which is also not true. Hardware drives software, hardware drives services, hardware drives accessory and licensed product sales. We know this from sub growth flatlining and Phil's interview, I am sure they would like GP to take off outside of hardware but that is not reality.
The vast majority of next gen sales have still been PS5 and XIt is kind of interesting that it half of XB sales are Series S, that old discussion about Tera flops has become pointless, because only a relatively small percentage of next gen console owners have the 'most powerful' hardware after all.
It is kind of interesting that it half of XB sales are Series S, that old discussion about Tera flops has become pointless, because only a relatively small percentage of next gen console owners have the 'most powerful' hardware after all.
It is kind of interesting that it half of XB sales are Series S, that old discussion about Tera flops has become pointless, because only a relatively small percentage of next gen console owners have the 'most powerful' hardware after all.
Yes, that split would probably be different, but not sure by how much. It was just a curiosity, though, because that was such a intense talking point in the months previous to the release of these consoles, and since most consumers have not chosen the most powerful one, for different reasons, I wonder if that will be a factor when designing next generation.The Series X was not being stocked as well as Series S. And still the vast majority of the latest consoles are together Series X and PS5 together. Series X would most likely have had a higher procentage of the Series split if they managed to produced more in the beginning.
Technically that is not true, even if the sales of the previous Pro was only 20% of the system post-2016. Enthusiast buyers that you are trying to entice are also the ones that will scrutinize the hardware more. They cannot just "throw something together" for profits sake and hope that audience will buy it. The hardware upgrade needs to be substantial enough, and the price competitive in the console space.It is like mid gen refreshes, only cater to a limited customer percentage, so should be designed with profitability in mind
I agree, not that I consider pro consoles pointless, just that has to make sense, as you said, going after the hardcore , that is, usually , a big spender. But sometimes just having the edge over your rival, while gives you that extra marketing point, which maybe XB needed vs Playstation, is worth as long the long term is financially sustainableTechnically that is not true, even if the sales of the previous Pro was only 20% of the system post-2016. Enthusiast buyers that you are trying to entice are also the ones that will scrutinize the hardware more. They cannot just "throw something together" for profits sake and hope that audience will buy it. The hardware upgrade needs to be substantial enough, and the price competitive in the console space.
It is kind of interesting that it half of XB sales are Series S, that old discussion about Tera flops has become pointless, because only a relatively small percentage of next gen console owners have the 'most powerful' hardware after all.
Yes, for sure. Both are quite close in performance. But the having the most powerful one didn't really help MS close the gap. In fact seems to be doing worse than previous gen compared to the competition.The vast majority would be PS5 and Series X though if we add both brands together.
Multiple contributing factors to that. Power being one of the least important.Yes, for sure. Both are quite close in performance. But the having the most powerful one didn't really help MS close the gap. In fact seems to be doing worse than previous gen compared to the competition.
Yeah the XSS certainly made it easier for a customer to enter the Xbox ecosystem. MS needs to make compelling games to keep those customers long term.If Microsoft didn't have the Series S this generation they would be dead in the water. Whoever decided early on to create a lower spec machine deserves a raise.
Yes to multiple factors contributing to that. Power race didn't help at all despite all the discussion early into the gen. That's my point, it didn't move the needle. As long as the console is balanced and the games are there, being a bit better here or there doesn't seem to really change the overall result.Multiple contributing factors to that. Power being one of the least important.
Power can be a factor is the gulf is as big as last gen.Yes to multiple factors contributing to that. Power race didn't help at all despite all the discussion early into the gen. That's my point, it didn't move the needle. As long as the console is balanced and the games are there, being a bit better here or there doesn't seem to really change the overall result.
PS5 would have not sold more if it had been marginally more powerful than Series X, but may have not been profitable for Sony.
PS5 would have not sold more if it had been marginally more powerful than Series X, but may have not been profitable for Sony.
yeah wtf are those takes, Starfield was always catalogued as the "turning point" in xbox sales lmao.Era before it launched:
the xboxes will fly off the shelves when Starfield comes out, especially the Series S since it will be a cheap entry point for people wanting to get the next Bethesda RPG
Era after it launched:
i mean it obviously was never going to move the needle even a tiny bit.
Exactly, that's what I mean. It is the overall product that is appealing. Power needs to be there, to justify the new generation, and having the edge is better of course,People thought the edge would make a huge difference, like the power advantage PS4 had was the reason it outsold the X1 so the same should happen with the XSX against the PS5. But that only makes sense if you ignore everything else that made the PS4 more appealing and the X1 not appealing.
As Silver X said, even last gen's bigger gap wasn't the main factor. It just added and extra reason.