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Cases are trending down right now, which is good news considering massive swaths of the country did nothing in response to the delta wave. Certainly suggests that it is burning itself out.
But after the fake out that got pulled on us over the summer, I think we're gonna need to see like three straight months of stable, low case counts before any of us will feel truly safe again.
But after the fake out that got pulled on us over the summer, I think we're gonna need to see like three straight months of stable, low case counts before any of us will feel truly safe again.
Especially since we're going to have a bunch of unmasked idiots gathering en masse for Thanksgiving again.
As long as possible tourist states have governors that install anti mask surgeon generals we will remain fucked.
Does this guy have any credibility? I don't trust anyone associated with the last administration by default.
Yeah I'll feel better if there's a pattern break for the fall.
Can we build a wall around Florida anyway just to be safe? I'm pretty sure historically, walls always work.
Florida is spreading the virus. I highly doubt most of them traveling to the parks are vaccinated because kids under 12 can't get the Vaccine yet with no social distancing
Didn't the report from the modelers from the CDC that went out yesterday basically show the same thing? That we're likely to get a decline through the winter instead of another spike unless a new variant emerges, but that seems to be unlikely?
Sounds like something I'm going to hear quoted in six months by the right ad nauseam about how the government again got it wrong after a fifth wave hits in winter.
On a related note:
www.npr.org
Of course they also caution not to get too optimistic and that the models could be off and there's a wide level of uncertainty 🤷‍♂️
Also, the belief that the virus won't mutate enough to significantly break through the current vaccines is not just wishful thinking. The mutations required for that to happen would most likely make the virus non-functional.
Is The Worst Over? Models Predict A Steady Decline In COVID Cases Through March
Though infections are still sky-high, the U.S. may be turning a corner, according to a consortium of researchers who forecast the pandemic. And we may well be spared a winter surge.
www.npr.org
Of course they also caution not to get too optimistic and that the models could be off and there's a wide level of uncertainty 🤷‍♂️
Also, the belief that the virus won't mutate enough to significantly break through the current vaccines is not just wishful thinking. The mutations required for that to happen would most likely make the virus non-functional.
People stay indoors more and have windows closed during winter which makes it spread quicker.
I mean yeah dude it's nice to want things but we can't assume anything about COVID until it's like 5 years of low numbers and dramatically smaller peaks.
There was a MedCram video I watched a while ago that said something similar; basically speculating that the virus was evolving itself into a dead end, and we might not see many more effective mutations. I think it was around the time just before the Delta variant became news.
It's also worth remembering the vaccines will become more effective when they're retooled specifically to target Delta variant.
It's also worth remembering the vaccines will become more effective when they're retooled specifically to target Delta variant.
The bigger question is why CNN is even giving this Trump crony a platform to speak. If people don't know he was Trump's man, it will just look like sober, knowledgable views.
Yeah people seem to be glossing over that it's kinda gloomy lol
"This might be the last major mutation but we're also stuck with it and we'll need to take active measures to avoid a serious health crisis every year"
"Don't jinx it!!"
The fate of the country is a ratings game to them, that's why. Always has been.
I really don't know how to cope with the fact that if COVID never goes away (or at least, goes away enough where we can just go back to normal mostly), we're never going back to normal. I know people keep saying "It's never going away, accept it." and I just can't honestly, and don't know how to cope with that. My son just turned 1, he's basically not going to get to have any kind of normalcy in his life. Even when he's able to, getting children to cooperate with consistently wearing masks is going to be hard if not downright impossible. You can be the best parent in the universe and kids are still going to take them off when they aren't supposed to.
I don't enjoy wearing masks, but will wear them when it's necessary, I just don't want to stick to the point where everyone has to wear them all the time. I'd gladly accept a societal change that you see in many non-US countries where people wear them if they feel sick, that's a really good idea, but I just don't like them being just a normal thing everyone does, sick or not. And to be clear, obviously they're very important right now for safety measures, but in a vacuum if COVID wasn't a thing, I would not wear one unless I was actually sick/getting sick.
While Delta being the last variant and wave, that would be great, but the situation described still sounds incredibly bleak. The thing that makes this even more infuriating is how easily this could have been avoided, if the anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers just got their fucking shots and wore a mask for just a little bit. I still remember that time back in 2020 where at one point we could have actually done a consistent lockdown for 2-3 weeks and this thing would have been DONE. That didn't happen for obvious reasons, because people go all Herman Cain and don't believe COVID is real until they get COVID. An aunt on my wife's side didn't believe COVID was real, definitely got COVID at one point, refused to get tested, and still refuses to get vaccinated despite the fact that the vaccine got FULLY APPROVED by the FDA recently, people such as my mother-in-law are reluctant to discuss it with her because it's a "sensitive subject". We got invited to a party at a different aunt's house that would happen in a few weeks, but we are not going because we don't feel safe taking our son to that. Everyone but the one aunt I talked about before there is vaccinated, with the exception of a niece that's not old enough. About two weeks ago, everyone in that house got COVID including the niece, fortunately the niece ended up being fine and not having it too badly, and the rest of them didn't have it too badly either because they were vaccinated. Now my mother-in-law is trying to guilt trip my wife about us not going to that party and it's utterly exhausting. She keeps trying to say things like "Well you take him to daycare", and yeah, we do because we have to so we can work, and the staff all wears masks, is required to be vaccinated, and deep cleans everything. The staff is also required to get vaccinated. All parents are required to wear masks.
I just want this all to be over enough where we can go somewhat back to normal.
I don't enjoy wearing masks, but will wear them when it's necessary, I just don't want to stick to the point where everyone has to wear them all the time. I'd gladly accept a societal change that you see in many non-US countries where people wear them if they feel sick, that's a really good idea, but I just don't like them being just a normal thing everyone does, sick or not. And to be clear, obviously they're very important right now for safety measures, but in a vacuum if COVID wasn't a thing, I would not wear one unless I was actually sick/getting sick.
While Delta being the last variant and wave, that would be great, but the situation described still sounds incredibly bleak. The thing that makes this even more infuriating is how easily this could have been avoided, if the anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers just got their fucking shots and wore a mask for just a little bit. I still remember that time back in 2020 where at one point we could have actually done a consistent lockdown for 2-3 weeks and this thing would have been DONE. That didn't happen for obvious reasons, because people go all Herman Cain and don't believe COVID is real until they get COVID. An aunt on my wife's side didn't believe COVID was real, definitely got COVID at one point, refused to get tested, and still refuses to get vaccinated despite the fact that the vaccine got FULLY APPROVED by the FDA recently, people such as my mother-in-law are reluctant to discuss it with her because it's a "sensitive subject". We got invited to a party at a different aunt's house that would happen in a few weeks, but we are not going because we don't feel safe taking our son to that. Everyone but the one aunt I talked about before there is vaccinated, with the exception of a niece that's not old enough. About two weeks ago, everyone in that house got COVID including the niece, fortunately the niece ended up being fine and not having it too badly, and the rest of them didn't have it too badly either because they were vaccinated. Now my mother-in-law is trying to guilt trip my wife about us not going to that party and it's utterly exhausting. She keeps trying to say things like "Well you take him to daycare", and yeah, we do because we have to so we can work, and the staff all wears masks, is required to be vaccinated, and deep cleans everything. The staff is also required to get vaccinated. All parents are required to wear masks.
I just want this all to be over enough where we can go somewhat back to normal.
I've seen similar stuff posted before, but based on what? Why the hell would you assume there's no further mutations when it's still circulating among probably hundreds of millions. Even if the US got light herd immunity, what is to stop it from a mutation entering our ports precisely like every previous mutation? What has happened to critical thinking?
We're most likely getting more mutations and boosters, possibly tweaked vaccines annually. That's FAR more likely.
We're most likely getting more mutations and boosters, possibly tweaked vaccines annually. That's FAR more likely.
I noticed this today for my area at least, the past few days have been really good...
So while I'm hopeful.....I am cautious about getting my hopes up.
Yup, precisely. If anything, we've been fortunate that the mutations haven't evaded the alpha vaccine.
Wife and I intend to mostly stay quarantined, except for maybe a friendsgiving or something. Anyone that's been somewhere risky will be required to do an at home COVID test. We did this recently before having an edible party at a friend's.
Based on the entire history of viruses and even based on the history of COVID. Most viruses over time mutate to be less deadly but more contagious. The odds of a new variant that is significantly more contagious are hard because this one is already so contagious. Its possible, but even then, so many people will have protection at that point that it can only do so much worse. That's why even in the case of a more contagious variant the CDC is now modeling a significant downswing by March, albeit not as big of one as we will see if we don't have a more contagious one.
COVID has been slow to mutate and most mutations we've seen of it have been minor. There's no reason to think that will suddenly change, that's not how viruses generally work. Even DELTA in the grand scheme of things is a fairly small mutation. It's not impossible, but its unlikely.
And as someone posted above from the lead researcher at Oxford, a variant that had the spike protein change enough to completely evade the vaccines would likely be nonfunctional, its not likely to be an issue.
