CNN: Delta variant might be the last major wave of Coronavirus, says former Trump FDA commissioner

[Bing147]

I really don't know how to cope with the fact that if COVID never goes away (or at least, goes away enough where we can just go back to normal mostly), we're never going back to normal. I know people keep saying "It's never going away, accept it." and I just can't honestly, and don't know how to cope with that. My son just turned 1, he's basically not going to get to have any kind of normalcy in his life. Even when he's able to, getting children to cooperate with consistently wearing masks is going to be hard if not downright impossible. You can be the best parent in the universe and kids are still going to take them off when they aren't supposed to.

I don't enjoy wearing masks, but will wear them when it's necessary, I just don't want to stick to the point where everyone has to wear them all the time. I'd gladly accept a societal change that you see in many non-US countries where people wear them if they feel sick, that's a really good idea, but I just don't like them being just a normal thing everyone does, sick or not. And to be clear, obviously they're very important right now for safety measures, but in a vacuum if COVID wasn't a thing, I would not wear one unless I was actually sick/getting sick.

While Delta being the last variant and wave, that would be great, but the situation described still sounds incredibly bleak. The thing that makes this even more infuriating is how easily this could have been avoided, if the anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers just got their fucking shots and wore a mask for just a little bit. I still remember that time back in 2020 where at one point we could have actually done a consistent lockdown for 2-3 weeks and this thing would have been DONE. That didn't happen for obvious reasons, because people go all Herman Cain and don't believe COVID is real until they get COVID. An aunt on my wife's side didn't believe COVID was real, definitely got COVID at one point, refused to get tested, and still refuses to get vaccinated despite the fact that the vaccine got FULLY APPROVED by the FDA recently, people such as my mother-in-law are reluctant to discuss it with her because it's a "sensitive subject". We got invited to a party at a different aunt's house that would happen in a few weeks, but we are not going because we don't feel safe taking our son to that. Everyone but the one aunt I talked about before there is vaccinated, with the exception of a niece that's not old enough. About two weeks ago, everyone in that house got COVID including the niece, fortunately the niece ended up being fine and not having it too badly, and the rest of them didn't have it too badly either because they were vaccinated. Now my mother-in-law is trying to guilt trip my wife about us not going to that party and it's utterly exhausting. She keeps trying to say things like "Well you take him to daycare", and yeah, we do because we have to so we can work, and the staff all wears masks, is required to be vaccinated, and deep cleans everything. The staff is also required to get vaccinated. All parents are required to wear masks.

I just want this all to be over enough where we can go somewhat back to normal.

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I mean, that's the point, we're going to go mostly back to mostly normal once this wave is over. COVID will still exist, but not in a state where everyone has to wear a mask all the time. It will be in a state where you might catch it but if you're vaccinated you'll almost certainly be fine unless you have severe comorbidities and even then you're far more likely to be fine than not. There will be little enough of it in communities that it simply won't be needed. Will it still exist? Sure. Once in awhile an area will have a spike, and that area might do a localized mask mandate for a couple months while they deal with it, but we're going to have enough people protected that life will return to mostly the way it was before.

 

[B_Spooky13]

So it's basically the long way of saying "we're screwed" and Covid is the new normal.

Seems about right

 

[Nida]

As someone who caught something very similar to COVID in 2014 and coded a couple of times as a result, living the rest of my life knowing I could go through that again sucks.

 

[XMonkey]

I've seen similar stuff posted before, but based on what? Why the hell would you assume there's no further mutations when it's still circulating among probably hundreds of millions. Even if the US got light herd immunity, what is to stop it from a mutation entering our ports precisely like every previous mutation? What has happened to critical thinking?

We're most likely getting more mutations and boosters, possibly tweaked vaccines annually. That's FAR more likely.

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Nothing about this idea assumes there are no further variants. It's a certainty the virus will continue to mutate as that's just what they do, but it's far from a certainty that those mutations will make our vaccines stop working.

That's the thinking behind this idea, which isn't just coming from a Trump appointed dude either. The virus is quite close to losing it's "novel" status in several countries due to the combination of vaccinations and natural infections. That's a very important step to eventual endemicity.

 

[Dodongo]

Don't worry, our best and brightest are already cultivating the desantis variant.

 

[eathdemon]

This a a weird take. How will COVID become less pathogenic than the flu? By mere will? It's been almost 2 years and the disease hasn't become less severe than flu. If anything slightly more deadly variants have emerged one after the other.

And vaccines usually don't stop Delta from infecting you either. The wave would have happened regardless although not the saturation of hospital.

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yeah the flu vaccine doesnt stop alot of people from getting the flu, but it makes it less severe. its going to be emdemic, the point is a mix between vacine and immunity gained from recovery, this should not overwhelm hospitals in future.

 

[HylianSeven]

I mean, that's the point, we're going to go mostly back to mostly normal once this wave is over. COVID will still exist, but not in a state where everyone has to wear a mask all the time. It will be in a state where you might catch it but if you're vaccinated you'll almost certainly be fine unless you have severe comorbidities and even then you're far more likely to be fine than not. There will be little enough of it in communities that it simply won't be needed. Will it still exist? Sure. Once in awhile an area will have a spike, and that area might do a localized mask mandate for a couple months while they deal with it, but we're going to have enough people protected that life will return to mostly the way it was before.

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Fair enough, just the way I read the OP it sounded like "Masks are just going to be needed 24/7" and I guess I misunderstood that.

 

[Bing147]

So it's basically the long way of saying "we're screwed" and Covid is the new normal.

Seems about right

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Define "new normal". What we're doing now? No, that's not the new normal. COVID existing and being something people deal with from time to time? Yes, that's the new normal. That was pretty much decided by May of 2020. To define that as "we're screwed" seems a bit hyperbolic though. If you're vaccinated there are plenty of things in the world that you accept as a reality every day which are more likely to kill you even now. That's will be far more true when the infection levels dip as low as they're going to.

 

[OrangeNova]

I really don't know how to cope with the fact that if COVID never goes away (or at least, goes away enough where we can just go back to normal mostly), we're never going back to normal. I know people keep saying "It's never going away, accept it." and I just can't honestly, and don't know how to cope with that. My son just turned 1, he's basically not going to get to have any kind of normalcy in his life. Even when he's able to, getting children to cooperate with consistently wearing masks is going to be hard if not downright impossible. You can be the best parent in the universe and kids are still going to take them off when they aren't supposed to.

I don't enjoy wearing masks, but will wear them when it's necessary, I just don't want to stick to the point where everyone has to wear them all the time. I'd gladly accept a societal change that you see in many non-US countries where people wear them if they feel sick, that's a really good idea, but I just don't like them being just a normal thing everyone does, sick or not. And to be clear, obviously they're very important right now for safety measures, but in a vacuum if COVID wasn't a thing, I would not wear one unless I was actually sick/getting sick.

While Delta being the last variant and wave, that would be great, but the situation described still sounds incredibly bleak. The thing that makes this even more infuriating is how easily this could have been avoided, if the anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers just got their fucking shots and wore a mask for just a little bit. I still remember that time back in 2020 where at one point we could have actually done a consistent lockdown for 2-3 weeks and this thing would have been DONE. That didn't happen for obvious reasons, because people go all Herman Cain and don't believe COVID is real until they get COVID. An aunt on my wife's side didn't believe COVID was real, definitely got COVID at one point, refused to get tested, and still refuses to get vaccinated despite the fact that the vaccine got FULLY APPROVED by the FDA recently, people such as my mother-in-law are reluctant to discuss it with her because it's a "sensitive subject". We got invited to a party at a different aunt's house that would happen in a few weeks, but we are not going because we don't feel safe taking our son to that. Everyone but the one aunt I talked about before there is vaccinated, with the exception of a niece that's not old enough. About two weeks ago, everyone in that house got COVID including the niece, fortunately the niece ended up being fine and not having it too badly, and the rest of them didn't have it too badly either because they were vaccinated. Now my mother-in-law is trying to guilt trip my wife about us not going to that party and it's utterly exhausting. She keeps trying to say things like "Well you take him to daycare", and yeah, we do because we have to so we can work, and the staff all wears masks, is required to be vaccinated, and deep cleans everything. The staff is also required to get vaccinated. All parents are required to wear masks.

I just want this all to be over enough where we can go somewhat back to normal.

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When people say that, they don't mean that we're never going back to the way it was before. They mean it's going to be endemic, like the flu.

Covid is here to stay. However, there are treatments/pills on their way for it, and we have a vaccine that is incredibly effective at stopping it, or making it essentially not a concern.

 

[Pwnz]

Based on the entire history of viruses and even based on the history of COVID. Most viruses over time mutate to be less deadly but more contagious. The odds of a new variant that is significantly more contagious are hard because this one is already so contagious. Its possible, but even then, so many people will have protection at that point that it can only do so much worse. That's why even in the case of a more contagious variant the CDC is now modeling a significant downswing by March, albeit not as big of one as we will see if we don't have a more contagious one.

COVID has been slow to mutate and most mutations we've seen of it have been minor. There's no reason to think that will suddenly change, that's not how viruses generally work. Even DELTA in the grand scheme of things is a fairly small mutation. It's not impossible, but its unlikely.

And as someone posted above from the lead researcher at Oxford, a variant that had the spike protein change enough to completely evade the vaccines would likely be nonfunctional, its not likely to be an issue.

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I was under the impression that unvaccinated people that had alpha weren't well protected against delta. Is that not true?

 

[Deleted member 18025]

At this point, COVID is here to stay.

Just like with people not wanting flu shots, we just gotta live with the fact that people don't want COVID shots

 

[Lukar]

"I think you're going to see masks become much more culturally acceptable and used in parts of the country," he said.

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I hope so. I like wearing my mask when I go out, except for fearing that some rightwing nutjob is gonna deck me for it instead of minding their own business.

 

[SquirrelSr]

Wearing a mask everywhere has done wonders for my health. Everyone should try it.

 

[Bing147]

I was under the impression that unvaccinated people that had alpha weren't well protected against delta. Is that not true?

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There is still little evidence of that. Protection does drop over time, but even people who got it during the early stages of the pandemic still seem to have some protection and it seems to help even more against severe illness/death. Again, no sure thing, but there's even some evidence that having been infected is nearly as useful as the vaccine. Many doctors believe those who have had a previous infection only need one dose of the vaccine and not two (that said, the second is unlikely to hurt them so people should probably just get it. But, you know...)

Previous Covid Prevents Delta Infection Better Than Pfizer Shot

People who recovered from a bout of Covid-19 during one of the earlier waves of the pandemic appear to have a lower risk of contracting the delta variant than those who got two doses of the vaccine from Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[MrSunshine]

And vaccines usually don't stop Delta from infecting you either. The wave would have happened regardless although not the saturation of hospital.

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This is false. Vaccination prevents even infection with Delta the majority of the time. The effectiveness against infection is tough to pin down statistically, but two-thirds is in the ball park. The UK Office for National Statistics claims that Pfizer is 80% effective against infection. That's admittedly on the high end of current credible estimates. Obviously, effectiveness against hospitalization and severe symptoms is better than that.

Bottom line: with better vaccine penetration, this wave would have never managed to take hold, regardless of the higher transmissibility of Delta. Even disregarding the protection of the individual against disease, it was clearly a social responsibility to get vaccinated and those who didn't are responsible for the current circumstances and should be regarded as such.

 

[Pwnz]

There is still little evidence of that. Protection does drop over time, but even people who got it during the early stages of the pandemic still seem to have some protection and it seems to help even more against severe illness/death. Again, no sure thing, but there's even some evidence that having been infected is nearly as useful as the vaccine. Many doctors believe those who have had a previous infection only need one dose of the vaccine and not two (that said, the second is unlikely to hurt them so people should probably just get it. But, you know...)

Previous Covid Prevents Delta Infection Better Than Pfizer Shot

People who recovered from a bout of Covid-19 during one of the earlier waves of the pandemic appear to have a lower risk of contracting the delta variant than those who got two doses of the vaccine from Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE.

www.bloomberg.com

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Well, I hope you're correct. I think we're all beyond tired of this shit.

 

[Bunzy]

Yeah dude, ain't nobody going to be wearing mask in public places as the norm. It will not happen

 

[mattiewheels]

assuming nothing unexpected happens

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😂

 

[Freakzilla]

Ok. So people with flu and covid vaccines will eventually get it and, for the most part, recover while unvaccinated people will continue to die from both flu and covid.

 

[StarsAreStuff]

*knocks on wood

 

[Carn]

Lets wait and see what happens the next few months. For all we know,

 

[Calvinien]

I assume because it will kill off all the unvaccinated?

 

[Pwnz]

Ok. So people with flu and covid vaccines will eventually get it and, for the most part, recover while unvaccinated people will continue to die from both flu and covid.

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That was my thinking in late June, but the problem is there's too many unvaccinated resulting in ICUs being swamped and vaccinated people with other problems not getting life saving medical treatment. That's why until the ICUs have capacity, I do not feel comfortable going back to normal.

Before the ICUs were packed, I was like "fuck em, let them die". But with the ICUs packed and unvaccinated kids with shitty parents dying, I just can't live care free.

 

[Freakzilla]

That was my thinking in late June, but the problem is there's too many unvaccinated resulting in ICUs being swamped and vaccinated people with other problems not getting life saving medical treatment. That's why until the ICUs have capacity, I do not feel comfortable going back to normal.

Before the ICUs were packed, I was like "fuck em, let them die". But with the ICUs packed and unvaccinated kids with shitty parents dying, I just can't live care free.

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This is still a largely regional issue so Covid is going to look very different from state to state.

 

[Friskykillface]

Optimistic but let's just wait until after the holidays
If it's getting vaccinated people sick then delta is like mega man picking up power ups and becoming more stronger

Save us Dr Wily

 

[Sylvestre]

What he's describing is still a pretty awful scenario where people will be unable to adapt and hospitals will still be jam packed.

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yep.
and where we'll continue to have using masks at the gym

 

[Deleted member 4614]

I've seen similar stuff posted before, but based on what? Why the hell would you assume there's no further mutations when it's still circulating among probably hundreds of millions.

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If I had to speculate (not an expert or even a novice), I'd say it's less about virus mutability and more about our immune systems. We're reaching a point where half the world is vaccinated, and many others have been exposed to 1 or 2 variants of the virus. In order for a third scary variant to arise, it needs to evade immune response and be highly contagious or dangerous. Mutations will be harder to come by since immune systems suppress viral replication needed for mutation.

I dunno, it seems like a big chaotic math equation. I think taking any one person's word for anything regarding covid is probably foolhardy however.

 

[Yoshimitsu126]

Famous last words

 

[Luke_wal]

If this is the "new normal," are we just never going to be able to travel internationally again? My wife and I would LOVE to go to Japan, are just waiting on the chance to book our flights, but it seems like they have no intention of letting in Americans any time soon.

 

[Mivey]

COVID isn't the flu. So far it mutates much slower than the flu and the mutations that do exist are smaller, meaning prior infection and vaccination from past strains are far more effective at stopping future infection and significant sickness.

There will of course be new variants, but the doom people here have over them is REALLY overblown. Viruses traditionally are more likely to evolve to get less deadly but more contagious. Delta seems to be about the same in deadliness but did get the more contagious part down. In some ways though that could actually be helpful in ending the pandemic though as it is positively ripping through those who are unvaccinated, which at some point will leave a more limited pool of people left to easily infect. Yes, breakthrough cases happen, but they alone aren't likely enough to keep things at a pandemic level. A really vaccine resistant variant is not impossible, but some people here talk like its inevitable and that's far from the case.

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That's what I meant with "adapting to it". That Covid over time will likely become less deadly and become over time something that's actually comparable to the flu.
Of course that's speculation on my part, there's still the chance that people do develop near lifelong immunity after some booster shots or getting the virus a few times.

 

[Bing147]

That's what I meant with "adapting to it". That Covid over time will likely become less deadly and become over time something that's actually comparable to the flu.
Of course that's speculation on my part, there's still the chance that people do develop near lifelong immunity after some booster shots or getting the virus a few times.

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The reason we have trouble with the flu every year though, and why almost every year you have people getting bad cases of the flu even though they've had bad cases in recent years, is because the flu is incredibly quick to mutate. Its why even the flu shot is only so helpful. There's just too much of it going around and its constantly changing.

COVID is quite different. It is very slow to mutate. While you'll still have new versions, once we have it relatively under control that could well slow down even further. Its quite possible we could go years at that point between any significantly different variants popping up and even then our current treatments would likely be relatively helpful, just less so.

 

[Bing147]

If this is the "new normal," are we just never going to be able to travel internationally again? My wife and I would LOVE to go to Japan, are just waiting on the chance to book our flights, but it seems like they have no intention of letting in Americans any time soon.

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No one said "this" is the new normal, they said COVID existing is the new normal. Those are VERY different things.

 

[CherryWoodFuton]

If this is the "new normal," are we just never going to be able to travel internationally again? My wife and I would LOVE to go to Japan, are just waiting on the chance to book our flights, but it seems like they have no intention of letting in Americans any time soon.

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If I were a betting man Japan will open up for sure in 2022. No country can survive without a tourist economy for 2 plus years. Hopefully the Japanese population is significantly vaccinated by next year

 

[Futureman]

Even my old conservative parents agree that if everyone just STFU and got the vaccinations as soon as they were available we wouldn't be in this mess. It seems like most anti-vax is coming out of the younger generation who didn't have to get other vaccines that eliminated diseases.

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my anecdotal experience is it's mainly people with no/poor education.

 

[Vito]

I wish I could believe it but I just don't trust us as a species to learn our lesson.

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This.

 

[Book One]

I hope one day I can tell my grandkids how shitty this all was as we go buy a bottle of covidol at Walgreens

 

[rjinaz]

As someone who caught something very similar to COVID in 2014 and coded a couple of times as a result, living the rest of my life knowing I could go through that again sucks.

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Jesus.

 

[Nida]

Jesus.

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My lungs filled with fluid and I had to be put on a special ventilator which the first hospital didn't have. The doctor taking care of me rode in the ambulance to the other hospital manually keeping me breathing the whole time. My kidneys and liver started to fail. I have heart failure now but we are not sure if it was previously weak and the virus took advantage.

COVID scares the fuck out of me.

 

[Freakzilla]

My lungs filled with fluid and I had to be put on a special ventilator which the first hospital didn't have. The doctor taking care of me rode in the ambulance to the other hospital manually keeping me breathing the whole time. My kidneys and liver started to fail. I have heart failure now but we are not sure if it was previously weak and the virus took advantage.

COVID scares the fuck out of me.

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Did you ever find out what it was?

 

[Nida]

Did you ever find out what it was?

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Unfortunately no. They said their best guess was a virus as they could see no other reason for it.

One day after work I told my girlfriend I felt like I was having trouble breathing after work. I laid down for a bit and then said I needed to go to the ER. I don't remember much after that. I woke up in a different hospital with my parents there as they called and told them they needed to fly in because I wasn't going to make it.

 

[TorianElecdra]

This is false. Vaccination prevents even infection with Delta the majority of the time. The effectiveness against infection is tough to pin down statistically, but two-thirds is in the ball park. The UK Office for National Statistics claims that Pfizer is 80% effective against infection. That's admittedly on the high end of current credible estimates. Obviously, effectiveness against hospitalization and severe symptoms is better than that.

Bottom line: with better vaccine penetration, this wave would have never managed to take hold, regardless of the higher transmissibility of Delta. Even disregarding the protection of the individual against disease, it was clearly a social responsibility to get vaccinated and those who didn't are responsible for the current circumstances and should be regarded as such.

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Many real life studies have pointed towards an effectiveness of 39% or lower for Pfizer.

Israel says Pfizer Covid vaccine is just 39% effective as delta spreads, but still prevents severe illness

Pfizer and BioNTech's Covid-19 vaccine is just 39% effective against delta in Israel, but still provides strong protection against severe illness and hospitalization.

www.cnbc.com

Iirc according to the OMS, vaccine under 50% for transmission is not considered effective to break chains of infection.

The wave would have happened regardless and it might happen again during the winter. But ultimately the point is not about infections, is about hospital admissions. So we won't have that issue during the winter if people are sufficiently vaxxed.

 

[FinKL]

I'm confused...we've seen for nearly two years that COVID is not seasonally affected.

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Agreed, it's more of a what holidays are people getting together for spread. With Thanksgiving/Christmas being the biggest contributor of people getting together.

 

[Imperial Bishop]

I also like to tempt fate.

 

[Huey]

Yeah I wouldn't rush into this, speaking as someone from the province in Canada led by a subspecies of conservatives who felt that this was the right time for the transition to endemic, and where we're now airlifting patients to other regions of the country and preparing for implementation of an ICU triage protocol.

 

[donkey]

 

[Capt_Shanu]

Don't worry, our best and brightest are already cultivating the desantis variant.

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We have the "kenney" variant cooking here in Alberta. Seriously people, don't come here.

 

[8byte]

Not a chance. He's wrong as fuuuuuuck.

 

[Keywork]

I would like this to be the last wave. I would like to start having even that little bit of normalcy, but with some minor adjustments like masks inside crowded and poorly vented places, we seemed to be getting back into our lives in June. But I live in FL and I worry we might not ever be able to go back to normal again or we will be trailing the rest of the country. I'm more tired of all this stuff this year than I was this same time last year. Which I think is because we got a taste of normalcy again only to have it snatched away by Delta. I just want my wife and I to be able to go out to dinner, go see a movie, go back to Disney World, etc. without having to worry about catching Covid even though we are vaxxed and wearing masks. I want to be able to feel safe, or even at least get a room, when my doctors say I need to come into the hospital for a week or two to treat an exacerbation of my CF.

 

[katsu044]

hopium
i'll see how were fairing in an year

 

[DeliciousSunnyD!]

If this guy is the former FDA Commissioner who has ties to the former administration, you know, the one who let this all happen while denying the severity and flanning the flames, why the fuck are the media giving him airtime as if his word is the true gospel?