This was me in December 2007. It sucked. This time I'm waiting for the recession to hit before buying my first house so worry not, all it takes is a decade or so of toil to come out the other side.
CNN: Dow falls 460 points as US recession indicator flashes red
- Thread starter Slayven
- Start date
I think people are conflating the last recession with all recessions... that one was really, really bad. The next shouldn't be anywhere near the same.
Hard to say whether or not something is the start of a recession until you're already well into it. The markets have been continuing to trend upwards, but seem to have been increasingly volatile. All that said, I've been waiting on tenterhooks here. It's felt like the next big recession could be coming up for about the past year now.
I don't think anyone is cheering for it. Anyone with a brain knows that it's inevitably coming, one way or the other. Might as well be in a way where it's easier to recover than otherwise.
Luckily Bloodlines 2 was just announced so almost nothing can ruin my happiness for the next few days.
Congrats. 'Looking forward to it' is a little crass but I get what you mean.
Hmmm, how were you at predicting things last year? Not saying a 500 bump is impossible but it says nothing about general direction.
We are overdue for a recession, so it's not surprising to see the market get gun shy after gains again.
Side note, not every recession is the 08 recession, people shouldn't panic or change their investment habits based on any of this
Side note, not every recession is the 08 recession, people shouldn't panic or change their investment habits based on any of this
Part of the problem with the next recession is that a lot of our recession fighting tools are tapped out and... Trump's in charge. Like, can't really lower interest rates much. We've already blown a trillion on tax cuts.
Why is it bad when the yield drops? I know it means less return, but why signaling a possible recession?
One silver lining is if it's bad enough and hurts enough we'll see a bigger swing to leftist/leftward economic thought in the general populace.
Not that I am cheering this event on however.
It's going to happen sooner or later, economists have been raising red flags for 2 years now.
The question is will it happen under Trump or after Trump, and if it happens under Trump will this give an edge to Democrats who can hopefully come in to save those people hurt most by a downturn, because you know Trump will just hand out more corp tax cuts or even, shudder, austerity.
The idea that we're not going to hit a recession ever is well intentioned but naive. Whether the recession happens in 2019-2020 vs 2021-2022 makes a huge difference in American politics for the next decade.
It's plain stupid.
History has shown recession have to happen. It's the nature of the beast.
oh great it's gonna be up to the democrat again to fix shit once they get into office. unless they can cancel the tax cuts they aren't gonna be able to do much.
would you rather have our idiot president handle a recession or literally anybody else? if a recession is coming it's coming and any cheerleading or whatever doesn't affect a damn thing.
Hey remember the corp media wholeheartedly following the trump administration's lead saying everything was fine cause the stock market and low paying temporary jobs? Hey what happend to that? I wonder what happend?
I would like a big recession to happen while Trump is still President so he can't credibly blame it on anyone else.
It would also be cool if the housing market crashed as we're hoping to buy a house next year.
Those would be the potential silver linings if it all goes to crap.
It would also be cool if the housing market crashed as we're hoping to buy a house next year.
Those would be the potential silver linings if it all goes to crap.
boom bust cycles happen, but in many recessions, the reason is the clear factor of a bubble busting and unsustainable growth based on falty economic gains...that is...like right after a huge tax cut to oligarchs and corporations who dont invest it back in the economy just as one example.
Neither does today's one day of data which is the basis of this stupid CNN piece and thread. Year to Date:
Dow: +8.5%
S&P 500: +12%
Nasdaq: +15%
Of course, I was merely arguing that recessions happen no matter what.
This one will definatly be caused due to that though. Possible made terrible by it.
The year to date got us to the highs of last year after a negative year. Numerous negative reports about our economic situation have been coming out since then. I think that implies a direction. It'd only take a few negative weeks to bring us back to the start of the year. But, we'll see.
The Fed is at least mostly independent from Trump, but ideally the rates would be higher yeah.
In regards of spending, I'm less concerned there, as long as 2020 goes ok.
Look, the solution is obviously to get rid of more regulations. If we do that enough, that'll fix it all right up
Its apparent how many folks here have only experienced a recession in terms of 2008. They're typically a natural cycle, not some catastrophic event.
Second of all, we are in uncharted territory here. The yield curve has never flattened with unemployment being this low. We have two conflicting economic indicators.
I still contend we will not see a recession in 2019. And when we do, it will be short lived.
Remember, a recession is 2 quarters of negative growth. No matter how small. It doesn't necessarily mean major job losses, etc.
Second of all, we are in uncharted territory here. The yield curve has never flattened with unemployment being this low. We have two conflicting economic indicators.
I still contend we will not see a recession in 2019. And when we do, it will be short lived.
Remember, a recession is 2 quarters of negative growth. No matter how small. It doesn't necessarily mean major job losses, etc.
I wouldn't say they are tapped out by any means. The Feds are in a position to drop rates several times over. What we're not prepared for is another "great recession" because we've only just now dug out from the last one.
The good news is that there is no reason to expect a major recession again.
Wasn't the yield curve inverted in 2000 when the unemployment rate was pretty much the same as today?
To my knowledge, no. Especially considering this is the lowest unemployment in 50+ years.
damn
I'm looking to cash out & finally buy a place after august, this sucks but it might be a good time around then
(obviously i hope a lot of folks don't lose their homes in the process but the last go around proved no one up top gave a shit about that)
I'm looking to cash out & finally buy a place after august, this sucks but it might be a good time around then
(obviously i hope a lot of folks don't lose their homes in the process but the last go around proved no one up top gave a shit about that)
Came to post basically this. The people going to be affected by this will be the low/middle class. Kind of heartless to cheer for something that can leave people jobless/homeless.
I think this is the first time all the pieces are lining up, between both overbought indicators being at recession levels high, and almost every economic indicator has had a small to medium size drop in the last couple of months. When people were freaking out last year about the stock market, things were still overbought, but there wasn't any signs of a fundamental change in trend like there are now.
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And we currently have an administration that is going to make the Bush handling of the housing market crash look amazing. No thanks.
Employment is the most laging of indicators and always has been. Like, yield has to drop first, then the business needs realize that it's going to lose a lot of money because of it, then it makes the decision to cut costs to stay afloat or go out of business. Unemployment is at the very end of the process.
I know it's all a cycle, but it'd take some very big and unnatural forces for unemployment to lead that process, and it would probably be obvious enough to not need to wait for the data to notice.
Plainly job creators need more unfunded tax cuts and a trade war and an international policy basket case.
This will make history as the first time an unfunded GOP tax cut for the wealthy - built on an economy and job market salvaged by a democratic government -- led to a recession or financial malady. Nobody could have predicted this.
This will make history as the first time an unfunded GOP tax cut for the wealthy - built on an economy and job market salvaged by a democratic government -- led to a recession or financial malady. Nobody could have predicted this.