https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/22/investing/dow-stock-market-yield-curve/index.html
One more sign
The Dow fell 460 points Friday after a US recession indicator blinked red and a report on German manufacturing raised concerns about Europe's most important economy.
The index shed 1.8%, while the S&P 500 closed down 1.9%. The Nasdaq plunged 2.5%. It was the worst performance for all three major indexes since January 3.
The yield on 3-month Treasuries rose above the rate on 10-year Treasuries for the first time since 2007 — a shift that scared Wall Street. Investors have piled back into stocks after a sell-off in late 2018.
The flattening yield curve, or the difference between short- and long-term rates, has worried investors for months. A narrowing spread is typically seen as sign that long-term economic confidence is dwindling. For decades, an inversion has been a reliable predictor of a future recession.
Michael Darda, chief economist and market strategist at MKM Partners, said in a note that investors should wait for weekly and monthly averages to show an inversion before they read it as a "powerful recession signal."
And he noted that on average, recessions occur 12 months after an inversion — not immediately.
One more sign