Slayven

Never read a comic in his life
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
97,752
https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/22/investing/dow-stock-market-yield-curve/index.html

The Dow fell 460 points Friday after a US recession indicator blinked red and a report on German manufacturing raised concerns about Europe's most important economy.
The index shed 1.8%, while the S&P 500 closed down 1.9%. The Nasdaq plunged 2.5%. It was the worst performance for all three major indexes since January 3.
The yield on 3-month Treasuries rose above the rate on 10-year Treasuries for the first time since 2007 — a shift that scared Wall Street. Investors have piled back into stocks after a sell-off in late 2018.
The flattening yield curve, or the difference between short- and long-term rates, has worried investors for months. A narrowing spread is typically seen as sign that long-term economic confidence is dwindling. For decades, an inversion has been a reliable predictor of a future recession.

Michael Darda, chief economist and market strategist at MKM Partners, said in a note that investors should wait for weekly and monthly averages to show an inversion before they read it as a "powerful recession signal."
And he noted that on average, recessions occur 12 months after an inversion — not immediately.

One more sign
 

Joe

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,106
I think the 10-year/2-year spread is still the best indicator, and that's still positive at .13. Even when that goes negative, we'll probably still have a year before an actual recession.

But yeah, it'll hit sooner or later.
 

TaySan

SayTan
Member
Dec 10, 2018
33,783
Tulsa, Oklahoma
And of course we will see the effects when our next Democratic president is elected and Democrats will be blamed for it. Cycle continues to repeat it self
 

iareharSon

Member
Oct 30, 2017
9,069
Glad my parents JUST sold their house in San Jose, CA for top dollar. I fear the market is going to crash soon.
 

Christian

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,639
Im going to post this long term graph of the line steadily going up to show how smart I am and how dumb you all are for panicking! A-hyuck-hyuck!!
 
Oct 27, 2017
22,933
Nobody try to time the market thinking "Oh noes, recession!". You and not another living soul on this planet knows shit about what they will be doing in the short term or over the next few years. Could be a recession coming up or could not be for awhile.
 

Deleted member 29676

User Requested Account Closure
Banned
Nov 1, 2017
1,804
For arm chair investors remember: For long term goals Time in the market beats timing the market.


That said a quick 6=8 month recession during the general election would probably help Dems win the senate and presidency so maybe it wouldn't be terrible.
 

Inuhanyou

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,214
New Jersey
Oh wow another recession? With all of the bubbles and broken aspects of the American system, who could have guessed that a recession would happen after giving a multi trillion dollar tax cut to rich people and leaving the rest of America to rot with no plans indefinately? Who could have guessed...like srsly

I need people to stop pretending this kind of thing is surprising when our system is actively facilitating and self inflicting these cycles with even more of a regularity
 

wenis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,341
So what's everyone's weekend plans?

Just gunna play some Division 2, get a spaghetti dinner with the partner. Keep it low key.
 

Mr.Awesome

Banned
Nov 4, 2017
3,077
Lol this is fear mongering at its finest. The markets have been crushing it this year. That's why it's the worst performance since January 3rd. A bit of a pullback should be expected when the markets have been up practically every day this year.
 

Neece

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,514
And ironically this is what will cause it!
source.gif
 

acheron_xl

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,584
MSN, WI
I look forward to another Democrat elected under the cloud of an economic crisis, that has their flexibility strained because they have to spend all their effort doing economy shit.
 

TheHunter

Bold Bur3n Wrangler
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
25,774
Oh hey it's that thing we economists have been warning about for awhile now.

Well at least we have a sane and competnent administration that won't lash out at everyone and anyone.
 

Hydrus

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,298
Is this a good time to sell my home? I wanna buy something bigger and cheaper. Wouldn't mind renting for a year.
 

Deleted member 29676

User Requested Account Closure
Banned
Nov 1, 2017
1,804
Is this a good time to sell my home? I wanna buy something bigger and cheaper. Wouldn't mind renting for a year.

Depends on the market but in most areas April-June is the best time to sell. If we see the Fed start dropping interest rates again we might not see much of a housing price decline though unlike last time.
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,567
Sure wish it didn't get to the point where only an economic crash could get Trump in serious shit but here we are.
 

Bramblebutt

Member
Jan 11, 2018
1,925
So what industry are we going to see trigger another credit crunch? I've heard people talking about the auto loan market being dangerously close to insolvent.
 

Pandaman

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
1,710
I'm up 23% so far this year and I'm probably cashing out on Monday and just gonna watch the markets for a month. shits too spooky especially with how brexit is going.

sadly only +23% over a book value of 2300
 

LukeOP

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,749
I'm up 23% so far this year and I'm probably cashing out on Monday and just gonna watch the markets for a month. shits too spooky especially with how brexit is going.

sadly only +23% over a book value of 2300


I'm up 240% and looking forward to my first time trading during a recession.
 

Ahhthe90s

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
1,294
SMH @ everyone advocating/cheering for an economic crash.

Peoples livelihoods are at stake, you people are disgusting.
 

Deleted member 8579

Oct 26, 2017
33,843
At least companies got that 1 trillion tax cut, that should cover it.....