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Watchtower

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,964
I think the important question isn't why Raya is underperforming, but why Raya is underperforming relative to Tom & Jerry. Because anything you can throw at Raya in regards to the pandemic and audience behavior and comfort with theaters should logically apply to Tom & Jerry as well.
 

Zorg1000

Banned
Jul 22, 2019
1,750
The theater experience is different though and feels more like an event for kids/families. My thinking is that at home with Disney+ there are probably a lot of families who will go "my kids haven't seen (movie from Disney's back catalog) yet, let's just watch that one tonight instead of spending $30 on a rental that we can watch a few months down the line as part of the subscription."
I dont think the "theater experience" is that big of a selling point, even before covid theater attendance had been steadily declining for years.

People like the comfort of their own homes rather than packed theaters where you might be stuck next to a crying baby or people talking and in a world where 60" 4K TVs and sound systems are common, it's gotten to a point where the quality is good enough for many people.
 

PanzerKraken

Member
Nov 1, 2017
15,159
Seeing that T&J and Croods have done ok, I think it's more about this movie just not being that big of a draw, heck I never even heard of it till last week. While T&J ads have been everywhere for a while. And if it's available to stream rental, then this is all premature speculation when others movies are doing better
 

S1kkZ

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,569
I think the important question isn't why Raya is underperforming, but why Raya is underperforming relative to Tom & Jerry. Because anything you can throw at Raya in regards to the pandemic and audience behavior and comfort with theaters should logically apply to Tom & Jerry as well.
d+ has 94 million subscribers worldwide, around 50% of those could be in the us. i dont know how many subscribers hbo may has, but i doubt its even close. and for a family, buying the premium access (or wait 3 months) is just cheaper.
 

Meg Cherry

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,390
Seattle, WA
I dont think the "theater experience" is that big of a selling point, even before covid theater attendance had been steadily declining for years.

People like the comfort of their own homes rather than packed theaters where you might be stuck next to a crying baby or people talking and in a world where 60" 4K TVs and sound systems are common, it's gotten to a point where the quality is good enough for many people.
This hasn't proven to be true in the slightest, though. More people would have been Mulan had it released in a traditional theater setting. None of the PVOD releases have had similar box office performance to traditional releases, with the singular exception of Trolls World Tour - a notable outlier.

Plus, 4K TV adoption still isn't widespread - and even the best at home setup isn't as good as an average multiplex screening room. As well as the entire social culture of moviegoing, which has been pretty firmly engrained into American civilization.
 

Zorg1000

Banned
Jul 22, 2019
1,750
No, because people enjoy going to the theaters. It's a night out of the house, you can socialize, and a reason to grab a drink with friends.

Watching a new release movie at home just isn't as attractive, especially at the $30 price point. You have to REALLY want to see that film immediately, rather than just waiting a few weeks to get the exact same experience for a lower price.
Did you forget I specifically mentioned families? Night out/socialize/grab drinks is what a group of adult friends does, not families.
 

Meg Cherry

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,390
Seattle, WA
Did you forget I specifically mentioned families? Night out/socialize/grab drinks is what a group of adult friends does, not families.
Considering how well other family films have done during the pandemic, the value of just being outside the house for a few hours is actually higher among families than young adults.

Parents really want to just have a space where their kids are distracted for two hours.
 

Dyle

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
30,413
They made a Tom and Jerry movie?

Underperforming that has gotta be hard to do
 

Meg Cherry

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,390
Seattle, WA
They made a Tom and Jerry movie?

Underperforming that has gotta be hard to do
The funny thing is, T&J is the first movie where the post-pandemic box office is exactly as high as I'd expect the pre-pandemic box office to have been. That movie screams "$14M opening weekend".

The difference is that $14M is now an industry-shaking revelation, rather than a punchline.
 

Genesius

Member
Nov 2, 2018
16,207
The theater experience is different though and feels more like an event for kids/families. My thinking is that at home with Disney+ there are probably a lot of families who will go "my kids haven't seen (movie from Disney's back catalog) yet, let's just watch that one tonight instead of spending $30 on a rental that we can watch a few months down the line as part of the subscription."
I think the point of all this is that people are realizing that the "event"-ness of going to a theater was never all it was cracked up to be, especially if there's a more convenient option to see new movies day and date.
 

TorianElecdra

Member
Feb 25, 2020
2,527
This is a nothing burger from Deadline. The pandemic is still raging. You won't get to pre pandemic levels of box office optimistically until November but realistically until March next year probably.
 

SapientWolf

Member
Nov 6, 2017
6,565
No, because people enjoy going to the theaters. It's a night out of the house, you can socialize, and a reason to grab a drink with friends.

Watching a new release movie at home just isn't as attractive, especially at the $30 price point. You have to REALLY want to see that film immediately, rather than just waiting a few weeks to get the exact same experience for a lower price.
If one sale is equivalent to 5 tickets even just 20 million downloads would be a huge success for Disney. I think that's where the fear is coming from. With 100 million D+ subscribers they only need a 1/5 conversion rate. And that's not even considering the box office, so it's an even lower number.
 

mugurumakensei

Elizabeth, I’m coming to join you!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,452
If I had to guess, it's actually due to anti-Asian racism as a result of Covid. Tom and Jerry as well as the Croods don't have that issue.
 

Chille

Member
Jan 7, 2018
2,051
No, because people enjoy going to the theaters. It's a night out of the house, you can socialize, and a reason to grab a drink with friends.

Watching a new release movie at home just isn't as attractive, especially at the $30 price point. You have to REALLY want to see that film immediately, rather than just waiting a few weeks to get the exact same experience for a lower price.
I would happily pay $30 to watch black widow at home. Though my experience isn't the same as everyone but for a good cinema I need to pay train fare £20, get an Uber £15-20, then tickets ontop of that so a trip to cinema with food etc too because it's an entire day almost is looking around £100.
 

Autumn

Avenger
Apr 1, 2018
6,691
Comparing the two is dumb. Tom and Jerry has actually humans, Moretz, and two known characters.

Raya is an unknown IP.

For a casual Tom and Jerry looks like fun time.
 

jph139

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,596
d+ has 94 million subscribers worldwide, around 50% of those could be in the us. i dont know how many subscribers hbo may has, but i doubt its even close. and for a family, buying the premium access (or wait 3 months) is just cheaper.

Sure, but it's $30 to access Raya, only $15 for a month of HBO Max, including Tom & Jerry. The install base is a factor, for sure - there's a ton of people who don't even know HBO Max exists. But is that a big enough factor to explain a $6 million gap? I'm not sure.
 
Oct 27, 2017
17,973
The theater event for kids is "Dad, I have to go to the bathroom."

So I could watch this movie on release date for less than the price of three movie tickets, Disney gets 5 or 6 tickets worth of revenue, I spend CVS levels on snacks, can pause the movie if kid has to pee, and can control the climate. Only thing lost is super-giant screen and atmos ceiling bounce.

I like my local theaters but I can see how this is scary for them. Right before the pandemic our theaters renovated with new top shelf bar and food service, trying to make it more of a social hangout. Once restrictions are lifted I think that model will work, while families may be inclined to convert to watch-at-hone.
 

DJChuy

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
5,333
I honestly had no idea Disney had a new movie out until I went on D+ to see the finale of Wandavision.
 

Genesius

Member
Nov 2, 2018
16,207
The theater event for kids is "Dad, I have to go to the bathroom."

So I could watch this movie on release date for less than the price of three movie tickets, Disney gets 5 or 6 tickets worth of revenue, I spend CVS levels on snacks, can pause the movie if kid has to pee, and can control the climate. Only thing lost is super-giant screen and atmos ceiling bounce.

I like my local theaters but I can see how this is scary for them. Right before the pandemic our theaters renovated with new top shelf bar and food service, trying to make it more of a social hangout. Once restrictions are lifted I think that model will work, while families may be inclined to convert to watch-at-hone.
This.

I feel like the only people bewildered by a lack of theater interest are twenty somethings. I'm 40, I have two kids, I'm vaccinated, and I'm a massive MCU fan. If Black Widow releases day and date, $30 is a NO-BRAINER. Theaters were on the way out before, COVID just fanned the flames.
 

wenis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,183
people know what Tom and Jerry is, they dont know what a Raya and a dragon are.
 

MrPink

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,365
While it's too early for theaters to really be open, what's happening to Raya feels like Disney not believing in the film at all and just dumping it out there without much effort to promote its presence. I don't think the Mulan experiment was particularly successful and this one doesn't seem like it'll be either. Now is Disney going to chalk it up to a lack of confidence in movie going from the pandemic or are they going to blame it on a Southeast Asian focused story not having appeal.

People might know what Tom and Jerry is but that's never stopped Disney from leveraging its brand to great success before.
 

Garlador

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
14,131
Agreed. People complain about the $30 premier access, but it's actually cheaper for me and my family.
I'm not even doing this (I'll be patient until it's actually on regular Disney+), but for a family of four like my household, with theaters still charging upwards of $10 a ticket, this is a cheaper alternative. And we're not going to the theaters until the vaccines hit our area.
 

Josh5890

I'm Your Favorite Poster's Favorite Poster
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
24,090
Maybe it is just me, but I saw next to no marketing for Raya so I don't think there was that much excitement behind this film to begin with.
 

Meg Cherry

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,390
Seattle, WA
Comparing the two is dumb. Tom and Jerry has actually humans, Moretz, and two known characters.

Raya is an unknown IP.

For a casual Tom and Jerry looks like fun time.
people know what Tom and Jerry is, they dont know what a Raya and a dragon are.
By this logic, Frozen & Moana should've flopped because it isn't a known brand.

The brand is 'Disney', and usually they're pretty good at selling these on that name recognition alone. That said, this also doesn't have the family-friendly musical angle. It's more of an action movie, which has always been a difficult sell for Disney's animated wing.
 

grand

Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,783
Theatres were always a hassel for families. What person would choose the theatre experience for a family flick, especially in a pandemic? Theatres are freaking out because they know that if "going to the theatre" isn't a nostalgic hook implanted during childhood, then the entire industry is going to severely contract within a decade.
 

shaneo632

Weekend Planner
Member
Oct 29, 2017
29,388
Wrexham, Wales
" numbers still aren't at pre-pandemic levels"

you fucking serious mate? lmao. Pre-pandemic levels won't be happening for a long time.
 

Gay Bowser

Member
Oct 30, 2017
17,865
But at that point, Why would the family even pay $30 when it will be free in a couple of months, more people would rather wait than to waste money
Why would anyone buy a game for $60 when it will be $30 in a couple of months? Why would anyone buy a hardcover book for $30 when it will be a $15 paperback later? People "wasting money" on getting things when they first come out isn't some unheard-of concept. Much of the media business relies on people doing this.
 

Venatio

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,787
But at that point, Why would the family even pay $30 when it will be free in a couple of months, more people would rather wait than to waste money

Right. And the oddest part is that the app literally tells you when it's gonna be free.

Like, why would you do that if you really wanted people to pay $30? In The Before Times, the dvd/digital release date wasn't even announced until the movie was fading from theaters. Now they're practically encouraging you to wait.
 

Genesius

Member
Nov 2, 2018
16,207
But at that point, Why would the family even pay $30 when it will be free in a couple of months, more people would rather wait than to waste money
Because theoretically they want to see the movie in question. And like it's been stated numerous times, $30 is peanuts compared to a theater outing to see the same film.

If people just want to talk and be shitheels and not pay attention to the movie anyway, then yeah, paying $30 doesn't make much sense, but that's yet another argument for people who want to see the movie never going to a theater again.
 

Armadilo

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,877
Why would anyone buy a game for $60 when it will be $30 in a couple of months? Why would anyone buy a hardcover book for $30 when it will be a $15 paperback later? People "wasting money" on getting things when they first come out some isn't unheard of concept. Much of the media business relies on people doing this.
You know by your Logic it's happening already , people already do that to xbox exclusives with game pass, HBO Max has been a success so far as more people are subscribing because of the Movies on Day 1 and people are still willing to go out and see it in theaters.

Plus crazy that Tom and Jerry was able to beat out a good Disney Movie, Tom and Jerry might be known but not as popular as the Disney Brand especially nowadays, Bravo!
 

Gay Bowser

Member
Oct 30, 2017
17,865
You know by your Logic it's happening already , people already do that to xbox exclusives with game pass, HBO Max has been a success so far as more people are subscribing because of the Movies on Day 1 and people are still willing to go out and see it.
I don't understand what you're trying to say.

Of course some people will wait until the thing is cheaper. And some people will pay more to get the thing right away. This is…not a new idea.
 

JJH

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,881
But at that point, Why would the family even pay $30 when it will be free in a couple of months, more people would rather wait than to waste money
Can't you make the same argument about paying to see the movie in theaters? IIRC the last couple of Disney movies that were in theaters came to Disney + in about the same timeframe (pre-Covid).
 

CreepingFear

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
16,766
I didn't hear that much about that movie. I'm curious what a Marvel movie would have done. I'm still "team stay home for rest of 2021 until we figure things out and see how many people are vaccinated"
 

Armadilo

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,877
Can't you make the same argument about paying to see the movie in theaters? IIRC the last couple of Disney movies that were in theaters came to Disney + in about the same timeframe (pre-Covid).
Movies have been cut shorter as the time frame now due to the pandemic, Down to 1 month of waiting until it shows up on a streaming service instead of the usual 3 to 6 months before.

It's changed and has increased the incentive to just wait a bit as it's now quicker than ever before to watch new movies on streaming service that you subscribe already.
 
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