Deducing PS5 Pro GPU and memory via math.

[DukeBlueBall]

Follow up to a thread that I made in Spring 2018 for the PS5.

Deducing PS5 GPU and memory via math.

Digital Foundry's attempt was in the right direction, but here in Resetera we have members who are intimately aware with the fab process, memory options, etc that the PS5 will use. We can make better predictions. The nodes available for PS5 in 2019, 2020 are TSMC 7nm. The 7nm EUV version with a...

www.resetera.com

In retrospect, I was within the general ballpark, the big exception being the inclusion of the SSD (I wasn't interested in storage), and the lack of dedicated DDR4 system ram. The GPU flops were close but I was lucky as I expected the GPU teraflops to be Vega equivalent instead of RDNA2.

For PS5 Pro, I've landed on two configurations in which the PS5 Pro might possibly land. The first configuration is a combination of PS5 slim and the PS5 pro. It's meant to be a replacement for the PS5 on the market. Instead of a slim console that typically accompanies a price drop, this would hold the price but provide a slight technical upgrade. This configuration I call the Jim Apple configuration. Specs:

CPU: 8 core Zen4/5 4-5ghz.

GPU: 36CUs RDNA3/4 at 2.5-3ghz. 23-28 teraflops. 2-3x improved RT performance. NOTE: GPUs based on RDNA 3 have dual-issue stream processors so that up to two shader instructions can be executed per clock cycle under certain parallelism conditions. Divide by 2 to get equivalent RDNA2 teraflops.
AMD XDNA Support

RAM: 16GB of GDDR6 at 18gb/s, 576 GB/s
4GB of DDR5 / LPPDR5 System ram. Frees up main pool for BVH trees.

STORAGE: 1TB SSD. Similar SSD performance to current PS5.

125-150mm2 die
100-125W TDP
$399-499 ($100-$200 profit margin)

The second configuration is simply a retread of the PS4 to PS4 Pro upgrade. I call this configuration the Butterfly configuration. The console will exist alongside a PS5 / PS5 Slim in a higher price & performance category.

CPU: 8 core Zen4/5 4-5ghz.

GPU 72CUs RDNA3/4 at 2.5ghz. ~45 teraflops. 4-5x improved RT performance. NOTE: GPUs based on RDNA 3 have dual-issue stream processors so that up to two shader instructions can be executed per clock cycle under certain parallelism conditions. Divide by 2 to get equivalent RDNA2 teraflops.
AMD XDNA Support

RAM: 16GB of GDDR6/GDDR6x at 24gb/s, 768 GB/s
4GB of DDR5 / LPPDR5 System ram. Frees up main pool for BVH trees.

STORAGE 1TB SSD. Similar SSD performance to current PS5.

250mm2 die
150-175w TDP
$499-$599 Break even / slight loss.

Both configurations on TSMC 3nm. Of the two configurations, I am leaning towards the second configuration, as we have the historical precedent of the kind of 2x jump going from PS4 to PS4 Pro. In addition, Sony won't be comfortable having a large profit margin on new hardware at launch. It's simply not in their DNA to do so.

Edit: Third configuration based on feedback.

CPU: 8 core Zen4/5 4-5ghz.

GPU: 36CUs RDNA3/4 at 2.5-3ghz. 23-28 teraflops. 2-3x improved RT performance. NOTE: GPUs based on RDNA 3 have dual-issue stream processors so that up to two shader instructions can be executed per clock cycle under certain parallelism conditions. Divide by 2 to get equivalent RDNA2 teraflops.

128mb infinity cache

AMD XDNA Support


RAM: 16GB of GDDR6 at 14-16gb/s, 448-512 GB/s

4GB of DDR5 / LPPDR5 System ram. Frees up main pool for BVH trees.


STORAGE: 1.7TB SSD. Similar SSD performance to current PS5 but doubled in capacity.


175-200mm2 die

125-150W TDP

$499 (~$100 profit margin)

Update:

Given the recent leaks, it has been clear to me that the actual PS5 Pro half way between the two setups. 60CUs most definitely refers to 3 shader engines, each with 20 CUs. There will be 2Cus disabled per shader engine for a total of 54 active CUs. In PS4 BC mode, only one shader engine will be active. In PS4 Pro and PS5 BC mode, 2 shader engines will be active.

At reasonable clocks that should translate to ~35 teraflops, which should be around 6950XT in rasterizer power. RT performance is likely to be much higher.

The 18gbps memory points to 576GBs if Sony is sticking with the 256 bit bus. If that's the case I expect at 96MB of infinity cache, along with 4GB of DDR4/DDR5 system ram as before.

If the bus width is 320bits, I think 720GB/s might be enough.

CPU performance is unknown at this time but I expect at least a clock boost to 4.5/5Ghz.

 

[Corleth the Fey]

The PS5 Pro is as real as the Switch Pro. Unless Sony actually announced it since I went to bed last night.

Also, a CPU at nearly 6GHZ? In a console? Haha.

 

[DukeBlueBall]

The PS5 Pro is as real as the Switch Pro. Unless Sony actually announced it since I went to bed last night.

Also, a CPU at nearly 6GHZ? In a console? Haha.

Click to shrink...

Zen4 currently peaks at 5.7 ghz. 6ghz would be the absolute top that I see in fall 2024. I expect 5ghz.

 

[RobbRivers]

First one looks interesting, just because a smaller ps5.

 

[modiz]

I disagree on a few accounts here. For one thing, I dont see Sony making a PS5 Pro that much more powerful from the base machine because the PS4 Pro indicates they are trying to maintain a reasonable performance leap on the next generation console, a machine that is theoriticlally 4x more powerful than a PS5 just seems unlikely to be their strategical goal there. Same also goes for the CPU, I imagine itll only have a small bump and still be based on the Zen 2 processor rather than upgrade it.
Furthermore I disagree with the assumption that Sony would avoid having a profit margin at launch if they can, however I also disagree at the associated production costs you have come up with, it seems very unlikely to me your "weak" configuration will cost anywhere close to $300 in a year.

Im honestly kinda passed predicting console specs after the madness of the pre PS5 launch speculation, but overall Im expecting something similar to PS4 Pro philosophy, 2x GPU theoritical performance, slight CPU bump, slight mem bandwidth bump, $499 (discless, with a disc reader bundle for whatever sony chooses to bundle those this year with the refresh model), maybe they'd also have larger storage from the get go.

 

[Dupr Dog]

The conservative CU count on the base PS5 certainly opens the door for a Pro model to do exactly what the PS4 Pro did, and double it.

I'm not sure how that goes from 10tf to 45 tho.

I would expect something I lot closer to 20-25, similar to how the PS4 Pro multiplied the PS4 tf.

 

[craven68]

I don't know about number but i would see a ps5 pro to get a gpu with a performance kinda similar as the 6900xt ( or worsr 6800)with better ray tracing performance and perhaps a better solution than fsr from sony.

 

[RayCharlizard]

Zen4 currently peaks at 5.7 ghz. 6ghz would be the absolute top that I see in fall 2024. I expect 5ghz.

Click to shrink...

They have to cool this thing in a console form factor.

Edit: Also, PS4 Pro didn't have such a huge leap in CPU clocks vs PS4 for compatibility reasons. The butterfly GPU config was for the same reason. They'd have to re-certify the entire PS5 library like they had to do for the PS4 library running in BC on PS5.

 

[Kuro]

I don't expect them to go with a split RAM structure for a mid-gen upgrade. That would just be a headache for devs.

I expect a memory bandwidth/speed bump and some more CUs. Maybe a bit extra VRAM for RT.

A slight chance for some added cores for something like FSR3. Image interpolation for resolution and motion is going to be key for any major platform going forward.

 

[craven68]

I don't see the need to upgrade the cpu, it's a good cpu already and better go on better GPU than upgrading the cpu to not make it cost too much.

And even without upgrading the cpu too much and with a much better GPU, i Can see it within the 700/800$.

The pro version will not cost the same as the current standard.

 

[knack2bae]

lol

 

[neoak]

45 TFs? For what price? 1499? lol

 

[Ryengeku]

Digital PS5 $400
Detachable Drive $99
PS5 Pro $600
PSVR 2 $500

 

[DukeBlueBall]

I disagree on a few accounts here. For one thing, I dont see Sony making a PS5 Pro that much more powerful from the base machine because the PS4 Pro indicates they are trying to maintain a reasonable performance leap on the next generation console, a machine that is theoriticlally 4x more powerful than a PS5 just seems unlikely to be their strategical goal there. Same also goes for the CPU, I imagine itll only have a small bump and still be based on the Zen 2 processor rather than upgrade it.
Furthermore I disagree with the assumption that Sony would avoid having a profit margin at launch if they can, however I also disagree at the associated production costs you have come up with, it seems very unlikely to me your "weak" configuration will cost anywhere close to $300 in a year.

Im honestly kinda passed predicting console specs after the madness of the pre PS5 launch speculation, but overall Im expecting something similar to PS4 Pro philosophy, 2x GPU theoritical performance, slight CPU bump, slight mem bandwidth bump, $499 (discless, with a disc reader bundle for whatever sony chooses to bundle those this year with the refresh model), maybe they'd also have larger storage from the get go.

Click to shrink...

No where did I have anything 4x more powerful. The 2x more powerful is the second configuration with 45 teraflops rdna3.

 

[DukeBlueBall]

45 TFs? For what price? 1499? lol

Click to shrink...

The conservative CU count on the base PS5 certainly opens the door for a model to do exactly what the PS4 Pro did, and double it.



I'm not sure how that goes from 10tf to 45 tho.



I would expect something I lot closer to 20-25, similar to how the PS4 Pro multiplied the PS4 tf.

Click to shrink...

45tf rdna3 is equivalent to 22.5tf rdna2. Rdna3 cus issues 2x instructions under certain situations.

 

[Godot25]

Yeah. There is no chance PS5 Pro is anything less then 700 dollars console with those specs.

Smaller nodes ain't cheap

 

[Leeen]

I don't see how you could free up the main pool from BVH when the BVH-related computations would need the faster bandwidth. They are not going to build a new ram pool and turn their system into a split RAM situation for something like that. The more likely scenario is that they will increase the main pool.

 

[SmartWaffles]

None of this match with the realistic tech they can use within the form factor. Zen 4 cores close to 6GHz on a 125W total TDP with only a $300 BOM? I'd like to have some of what you are on.

 

[DukeBlueBall]

I don't see how you could free up the main pool from BVH when the BVH-related computations would need the faster bandwidth. They are not going to build a new ram pool and turn their system into a split RAM situation for something like that. The more likely scenario is that they will increase the main pool.

Click to shrink...

Sorry. The OS is no longer on the 16gb of gddr6. The OS goes on the 4gb of ddr4.

 

[2Blackcats]

And it begins. Excellent

 

[supercommodore]

45 TFs? For what price? 1499? lol

Click to shrink...

For comparison, the 7900 XT and XTX are 52 and 61 TFLOPs respectively, so that is probably the ceiling. Given they are $899/$999 I imagine the pro consoles will be considerably lower.

 

[DukeBlueBall]

Yeah. There is no chance PS5 Pro is anything less then 700 dollars console with those specs.

Smaller nodes ain't cheap

Click to shrink...

The first configuration is basically a PS5 on 3nm with new architecture. Nothing else about the baseline configurations are changed. It's going to be like a 125-150mm2 SOC. For comparison the series S SOC is ~200mm2.

For comparison, the 7900 XT and XTX are 52 and 61 TFLOPs respectively, so that probably the ceiling. Given they are $899/$999 I imagine the pro consoles will be considerably lower.

Click to shrink...

The 7900xt is on 5nm and the GPU is only 300mm2 in size. On 3nm it'll be ~200mm2. The PS4 pro SoC is 348mm2.

 

[neoak]

For comparison, the 7900 XT and XTX are 52 and 61 TFLOPs respectively, so that is probably the ceiling. Given they are $899/$999 I imagine the pro consoles will be considerably lower.

Click to shrink...

That's just the GPU and memory.

You forget CPU cores, etc etc etc etc.

 

[BloodHound]

I knew folks wouldn't read the OP...skim through and overlook the NOTE in all caps and latch on to the 45 TF.

Era finna era.

 

[DukeBlueBall]

I knew folks wouldn't read the OP...skim through and overlook the NOTE in all caps and latch on to the 45 TF.

Era finna era.

Click to shrink...

Seriously. 🤣

 

[neoak]

I knew folks wouldn't read the OP...skim through and overlook the NOTE in all caps and latch on to the 45 TF.

Era finna era.

Click to shrink...

You mean the 6 Ghz Zen 4? When a 7700X does 5.4Ghz at 125W TDP?

lol shure

 

[DukeBlueBall]

You mean the 6 Ghz Zen 4? When a 7700X does 5.4Ghz at 125W TDP?

lol shure

Click to shrink...

My bad. Probably got a little carried away there. 🤣

 

[neoak]

My bad. Probably got a little carried away there. 🤣

Click to shrink...

I skipped that because I thought you slipped a finger there, but then BloodHound comes and says we only are fixed on the 45TF... soooooooo gotta dunk you on that too.

 

[Patitoloco]

These prices are incredibly way off for what the hardware is.

Like, the first configuration could be possible (the second one is incredibly costly for a console), yet it would still cost around 599$ at minimum.

 

[DukeBlueBall]

These prices are incredibly way off for what the hardware is.

Like, the first configuration could be possible (the second one is incredibly costly for a console), yet it would still cost around 599$ at minimum.

Click to shrink...

First configuration is an APU much smaller than the Series S. Should be much cheaper than a 300mm2 PS5 APU.

The second configuration is an APU a bit smaller than the current PS5. Should be around the same price as a PS5 APU.

Ram should be about the same cost as the 16GB GDDR6 pool in 2020. SSD is cheaper. Cooling, casing is cheaper.

I'm not seeing anything that would be an increase in BOM compared to 2020 PS5 outside of maybe the ram.

 

[DukeBlueBall]

I don't see the need to upgrade the cpu, it's a good cpu already and better go on better GPU than upgrading the cpu to not make it cost too much.

And even without upgrading the cpu too much and with a much better GPU, i Can see it within the 700/800$.

The pro version will not cost the same as the current standard.

Click to shrink...

Zen1 zen2 or zen 9 on the same node is the same cost. You're paying for the silicon on the chip, not the IP.

 

[pswii60]

Last gen, the CPU stayed pretty much the same whilst the GPU had a decent bump. But that was because the CPU didn't really need to change to deliver on the back of a very obvious specification bump that was easy to market: "4K" gaming.

This gen, I wonder how on earth will they market it? Better ray tracing? Higher resolutions? That's all very well but not clear cut like PS4 = 1080p/PS4 Pro = 4K.

 

[supercommodore]

The 7900xt is on 5nm and the GPU is only 300mm2 in size. On 3nm it'll be ~200mm2. The PS4 pro SoC is 348mm2.

Click to shrink...

Maybe this is my own lack of understanding but how does the 220 mm2 MCD on the 7900 XT factor in to this? Because the 300 mm2 doesn't include that.

 

[NediarPT88]

I understand nothing of this, but just want to add that a few years ago a Santa Monica Studio VFX dev working on Ragnarok said he wished PS5 had more memory, so maybe that will be a area where we can see a significant upgrade?

 

[modiz]

No where did I have anything 4x more powerful. The 2x more powerful is the second configuration with 45 teraflops rdna3.

Click to shrink...

Dividing by 2 to get "RDNA 2 TF" isnt an accurate estimation though because it assumes developers will do nothing with that and still use only a single stream processor, there should still be a substantial performance uplift just from that, even if its obviously not a 2x performance increase.

 

[MrKlaw]

I don't even know if I want more emphasis on RT until and bring a meaningful upgrade on their performance vs nvidia. I don't even need them to be faster or as fast, just not as far behind. Until then spend it on rasterising and better upscaling tech

 

[dgrdsv]

Zen4 currently peaks at 5.7 ghz. 6ghz would be the absolute top that I see in fall 2024. I expect 5ghz.

Click to shrink...

Zen4 peaks at 5.7 for an ST workload in a 170W socket. That's about 3/4 of what a console consume and then there's the GPU to consider.
There is no way it will run at such clocks. Expect something way lower, like 4.5 or so.

45tf rdna3 is equivalent to 22.5tf rdna2. Rdna3 cus issues 2x instructions under certain situations.

Click to shrink...

Not really. 45TFs on RDNA3 is faster than 22.5TFs on RDNA2, not equivalent. Due to how this is implemented it is far from being 2X faster and is closer to being 1.25x or so. Still it's not equivalent, and on a console it may end up being better utilized than on PC.

Also not sure what RDNA3/4 means. We don't have anything on RDNA4 yet so we can't just lump them together like this.
For a console which is in development now I think it's unlikely to be using anything but RDNA3 (or even 2, since Sony's b/c is still h/w based for all we know).

2-3x gains in RT are impossible without a similar gain in memory bandwidth. I think you're missing the critical piece there - bigger caches. It is very likely that the Pro will get IC for the GPU (instead of the useless 4GBs of LPDDR5). Even then though I'd expect RT to improve in line with FLOPs gains (accounting for 2 vs 3 differences) since we're talking about RDNA.

All in all the way PS5 can scale is the biggest reason why I doubt that PS5Pro is necessary or a thing even. A "Pro+slim" is an interesting concept though and it does make some sense. Just don't expect any "xX gains" from it, these will likely be in +XX% range.

 

[Thorrgal]

I knew folks wouldn't read the OP...skim through and overlook the NOTE in all caps and latch on to the 45 TF.

Era finna era.

Click to shrink...

As I was reading the OP I was thinking people are gonna run with the 28 and 45 TF number when it's specifically stated you have to divide that number by 2 lol

Good job DukeBlueBall , let's see what ends up happening, maybe it won't be that ambitious but most people won't care anyway and just grab it to update their launch console (like me).

 

[Tora]

A better also CPU allows you to market faster framerates/improved RT (I know the latter requires a better GPU/more memory)

 

[supercommodore]

I knew folks wouldn't read the OP...skim through and overlook the NOTE in all caps and latch on to the 45 TF.

Era finna era.

Click to shrink...

Note isn't relevant when comparing to existing RDNA3 cards and their performance per $.

 

[jroc74]

I also wonder if it'll be 72 cu's, like you say based on how they did the PS4 Pro. That said:

Im honestly kinda passed predicting console specs after the madness of the pre PS5 launch speculation,

Click to shrink...

Yup, I'd rather hang out in the Nintendo console speculation thread, lol.

 

[cooldawn]

I don't understand what a Pro version could offer.

I mean could they be doing this just to be specced higher than the Series X? Nah...PS5 seems to be performing well in face-offs so far.

What about a future XBOX Series X Pro? Nah...Microsoft are going all-in on GamePass and the cloud.

So, about 35TF's for what? RT? Is console RT really worth it right now? I still think a generation or two needs to pass before console RT hardware is effective without a substantial hit to performance. Of course RT will be part of the next-generation but I think it'll still cripple resources to some extent.

Essentially, I don't see the point of it. The PS4 Pro wasn't the step-up I expected either and I can't imagine this will be too.

 

[Andromeda]

Zen4 peaks at 5.7 for an ST workload in a 170W socket. That's about 3/4 of what a console consume and then there's the GPU to consider.
There is no way it will run at such clocks. Expect something way lower, like 4.5 or so.


Not really. 45TFs on RDNA3 is faster than 22.5TFs on RDNA2, not equivalent. Due to how this is implemented it is far from being 2X faster and is closer to being 1.25x or so. Still it's not equivalent, and on a console it may end up being better utilized than on PC.

Also not sure what RDNA3/4 means. We don't have anything on RDNA4 yet so we can't just lump them together like this.
For a console which is in development now I think it's unlikely to be using anything but RDNA3 (or even 2, since Sony's b/c is still h/w based for all we know).

2-3x gains in RT are impossible without a similar gain in memory bandwidth. I think you're missing the critical piece there - bigger caches. It is very likely that the Pro will get IC for the GPU (instead of the useless 4GBs of LPDDR5). Even then though I'd expect RT to improve in line with FLOPs gains (accounting for 2 vs 3 differences) since we're talking about RDNA.

All in all the way PS5 can scale is the biggest reason why I doubt that PS5Pro is necessary or a thing even. A "Pro+slim" is an interesting concept though and it does make some sense. Just don't expect any "xX gains" from it, these will likely be in +XX% range.

Click to shrink...

Sony released PS4 Pro with Vega features (like rapid packed math) before the actuall AMD Vega GPU was released. We have historical reasons to think Sony might do a similar thing and use RDNA4 features in PS5 Pro.

 

[Kopite]

I don't understand what a Pro version could offer.

I mean could they be doing this just to be specced higher than the Series X? Nah...PS5 seems to be performing well in face-offs so far.

What about a future XBOX Series X Pro? Nah...Microsoft are going all-in on GamePass and the cloud.

So, about 35TF's for what? RT? Is console RT really worth it right now? I still think a generation or two needs to pass before console RT hardware is effective without a substantial hit to performance. Of course RT will be part of the next-generation but I think it'll still cripple resources to some extent.

Essentially, I don't see the point of it. The PS4 Pro wasn't the step-up I expected either and I can't imagine this will be too.

Click to shrink...

With console gens taking 7-8 years, I'm thinking that you can't really justify R&D costs for that long while only releasing 1 product, especially when tech changes so much within that period and you might need to completely abandon whatever you worked and planned on in years 1-4.

 

[Thorrgal]

I don't understand what a Pro version could offer.

I mean could they be doing this just to be specced higher than the Series X? Nah...PS5 seems to be performing well in face-offs so far.

What about a future XBOX Series X Pro? Nah...Microsoft are going all-in on GamePass and the cloud.

So, about 35TF's for what? RT? Is console RT really worth it right now? I still think a generation or two needs to pass before console RT hardware is effective without a substantial hit to performance. Of course RT will be part of the next-generation but I think it'll still cripple resources to some extent.

Essentially, I don't see the point of it. The PS4 Pro wasn't the step-up I expected either and I can't imagine this will be too.

Click to shrink...

For me it's simple: my launch PS5 won't last 8 years and if I have to buy a new one down the road I rather it being a step-up in specs compared to the base PS5.

It's OK if it's not for you, it won't be for most people but it doesn't have to be. It will be a premium product for the enthusiasts, and that will make it "profitable" for all involved, like the first pro was (or we wouldn't have a PS5 pro)

 

[BreakAtmo]

I wonder if Sony could get AMD to make them a custom chip using NVIDIA-esque RT and tensor hardware, assuming AMD doesn't do that themselves with rDNA 4. With the improved RT performance and a reconstruction algorithm on-par with DLSS, they could honestly go pretty conservative with the power upgrade. 40 CUs at a dynamic 3GHz, plus a Zen 4 or 5 CPU, with the SoC using 3D V-Cache, and being made of chiplets to improve yields. The PS5 slim could use the same basic hardware, but it would use chiplets that weren't suitable for the Pro due to deficient CUs or failure to hit the required clocks. Unpatched games would see a significant boost from the clocks - larger than the PS4 Pro - and patched games would exploit the superior reconstruction and additional CUs, plus improved RT acceleration, to punch way above the hardware's weight.

Probably too much of a dream, though. AMD would need to copy NVIDIA harder than what we've seen in the PC space.

 

[Vimto]

Also not sure what RDNA3/4 means. We don't have anything on RDNA4 yet so we can't just lump them together like this.
For a console which is in development now I think it's unlikely to be using anything but RDNA3 (or even 2, since Sony's b/c is still h/w based for all we know).

Click to shrink...

Isnt XBOX/PS5 using RDNA 2 which was released at the same time as the cards?

 

[asd202]

I don't know if there is a lot to discuss here. It's going to be like PS4 Pro. Slight bump in CPU clock, more ram, better GPU to push RT at the same resolutions as non RT modes on OG PS5 is what I expect.

 

[KeRaSh]

I doubt they are aiming for a x4.5 leap in Tflops (x2.25 normalized for RDNA2) and not going for day one profit margins.
That's PS6 territory.

 

[Deleted member 11038]

Definitely don't expect a Path tracing GPU, it would be way too expensive. That will come with next gen.