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Nocturnal

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,321
The ground game will prevail.

Bernie has the donors, the ground game and a natural advantage in caucuses.

If he wins Iowa he will steamroll New Hampshire and Nevada (hispanics are his stronger demo).

Iowa is super critical to his campaign more so than last time around. His main obstacle atm is Warren also being attractive to the Iowan-Democrat. We'll see how it fares.


The ground game - he got it
The app game - he got it

Polls are not indicative of who has the most enthusiastic support but these maps should tell you all you need to know. One thing I do worry about is whether a big chunk of Biden primary voters might end up going to Trump. Older voters who seem to really favor Biden get most of their information from traditional media channels or Russian run facebook groups. I guess the young will need to save us in 2020 by voting in large numbers
 
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Banderdash

Chicken Chaser
Member
Nov 16, 2017
2,481
Australia
Listened to a story this morning stating how this wasn't exactly accurate... basically, to increase donors costs about $70 per donor.
Therefore, whilst they were required to get 65000 individual donors for the last debate, they were needing big donors to pay so they afford to attract small ones.
 

peyrin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,408
California
Polls are not indicative of who has the most enthusiastic support but these maps should tell you all you need to know. One thing I do worry about is whether a big chunk of Biden primary voters might end up going to Trump. Older voters who seem to really favor Biden get most of their information from traditional media channels or Russian run facebook groups. I guess the young will need to save us in 2020 by voting in large numbers

Biden to Trump seems a bit unlikely to me just because of how Biden has been building his entire campaign on Trump Bad, but hey, takes all kinds
 

KidAAlbum

Member
Nov 18, 2017
3,179
Bernie did after the race in '16.

This is a progressive board, with a sizeable socialist wing. However, many progressives hate liberals like Pelosi here more than Trump himself. And the Democratic party in general. In theory Bernie is an ally, sure, except he's been a disappointing one when he ran for president which drove a wedge between him and the other factions because he revealed how much he loathes the party while in the past that was obscure knowledge in the media and politics.

I don't know about that, maybe some are. What frustrates me is how bad faith actors hide behind that reasoning (and I'm not saying you do, that's simply why I have a bad reaction to that phrasing) that Bernie must be beloved by all as the status quo and that nobody can disagree with him or have issues with his past action for personality etc. There's plenty there to not like Bernie about, he's no saint. He's just another man and a politician.

You'll find we agree on all those things, the conflicts start up over how to fix them. It's a pity common ground is lost between the two sides on that. You'd think it'd be easier to have peace over those goals but nope.
That is absolutely not true in regards to Pelosi and Trump. They criticize her because she's supposed to be an ally and because many who are also supposed to be allies want to defend her from warranted criticism. I'm not going to waste my time criticizing Trump as much because I'm positive 99.9% of people on this board hate Trump and everything he stands for. I don't need to hear you guys criticize Trump for me not to vote for him. We all know what he stands for. That's not to say that it's not important to keep up with what he does because we need to shut whatever he does down the drain. So I do think it's important to talk about him.

What I am saying is that if you find us criticizing Pelosi a lot, it's because we expect more from her and we need true allies or they can get out. I'm not going to curb my values for somebody just because they're a democrat.

I don't think people have a problem with criticizing Bernie. People have a problem of there being an obvious disgust towards him when he is a progressive politician obviously fighting for what we all believe in. That's the reality in this forum. I've seen many posters moving from candidate to candidate trying to pick anyone, but Bernie. Meanwhile those of us who like Bernie are also supporters of Warren because of progressive values. In a sense, Bernie is a compromise for lots of us. If someone had an even better record than him, was better on foreign policy for years, etc... we would likely support that person (assuming that person had a chance at the nomination).
 

Tremorah

Member
Dec 3, 2018
4,955
So it seems people are giving most money to the socialist candidate all over the country, huh
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
Bernie is gonna be the nominee. I think people didn't expect Biden to bomb as bad as he has, and Harris hasn't done enough to really make a dint either. With the way the debates have played out and Bernie clearly not being short on resources, I think he will pull it off this time.
The thing is, Biden hasn't actually bombed. Bernie hasn't budged in the polls either. Biden's already long since recovered from the dip in the June debate back to his normal numbers and the July debates don't appear to have had any real impact in the polls.
 

McPaul

Banned
May 6, 2019
817
Bernie is gonna be the nominee. I think people didn't expect Biden to bomb as bad as he has, and Harris hasn't done enough to really make a dint either. With the way the debates have played out and Bernie clearly not being short on resources, I think he will pull it off this time.
I'm starting to think this will be the case too.
 

Deleted member 2426

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,988
There's only a handful of caucuses this time around. Iowa and Nevada are the only notable ones left, I think.

All of the big caucus states switched to primaries.

Yes, but voters also gravitate towards earily-states winners. If does a 1-2-3 punch with IW/NH/NV, he will get a significant boost during Super Tuesday (He is already polling well in California).
 

Pwnz

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,279
Places
Texas is Beto land. If When he doesn't get the presidential nomination, is there a Senate race in Texas he can try for again in 2020 or 22? I feel like he has a better shot next time he tries with more name recognition than ever, and all that fundraising.

Texas will go blue in his career. He will be a Texas senator one day.
 
Oct 25, 2017
9,053
Listened to a story this morning stating how this wasn't exactly accurate... basically, to increase donors costs about $70 per donor.
Therefore, whilst they were required to get 65000 individual donors for the last debate, they were needing big donors to pay so they afford to attract small ones.

Yeah, the DNC putting restrictions like that in place encouraged a bunch of inefficient, money-wasting actions.
 

GamerJM

Member
Nov 8, 2017
15,672
why did whoever design this graphic make Harris and Biden's colors so similar

also, jeez at the Middle America vs. Coastal divide wrt Warren
 

brainchild

Independent Developer
Verified
Nov 25, 2017
9,482
The ground game - he got it
The app game - he got it

Polls are not indicative of who has the most enthusiastic support but these maps should tell you all you need to know. One thing I do worry about is whether a big chunk of Biden primary voters might end up going to Trump. Older voters who seem to really favor Biden get most of their information from traditional media channels or Russian run facebook groups. I guess the young will need to save us in 2020 by voting in large numbers

I just wanna say that your avatar is awesome. That is all.
 

Thorn

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
24,446
eMUVB9H.png

lmao Sanders has 1000+ in the surrounding zipcodes but not mine. If I didn't have a dental procedure I'd shake this up a bit.
 

Mr. Wonderful

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,300
Just threw another $15 toward Warren. Don't want to donate too much at this point until we have a candidate, but happy to amplify liberal/progressive policies.
 

LifeLine

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,779
Incredible for Sanders. Worrying that Warren seems a little weaker in Florida considering its importance.

Sanders/Warren ticket will really dominate. But I wonder if Sanders/Beto will swing Texas.
 

Braaier

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
13,237
Incredible for Sanders. Worrying that Warren seems a little weaker in Florida considering its importance.

Sanders/Warren ticket will really dominate. But I wonder if Sanders/Beto will swing Texas.
I'm in Central Florida. Can confirm Warren is doa at the moment. We're all feeling the Bern down here
 

Bronx-Man

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
15,351
I donated to Bernie right before the FEC deadline. First time I've ever given money to a candidate but damn, he's earned it.
 
Oct 26, 2017
2,719
New Orleans
Bernie did after the race in '16.

This is a progressive board, with a sizeable socialist wing. However, many progressives hate liberals like Pelosi here more than Trump himself. And the Democratic party in general. In theory Bernie is an ally, sure, except he's been a disappointing one when he ran for president which drove a wedge between him and the other factions because he revealed how much he loathes the party while in the past that was obscure knowledge in the media and politics.

I don't know about that, maybe some are. What frustrates me is how bad faith actors hide behind that reasoning (and I'm not saying you do, that's simply why I have a bad reaction to that phrasing) that Bernie must be beloved by all as the status quo and that nobody can disagree with him or have issues with his past action for personality etc. There's plenty there to not like Bernie about, he's no saint. He's just another man and a politician.

You'll find we agree on all those things, the conflicts start up over how to fix them. It's a pity common ground is lost between the two sides on that. You'd think it'd be easier to have peace over those goals but nope.



I have in other threads. What evidence in congress shows that he's built the right coalitions to do this? Support from Warren like that isn't what I'm talking about, either. He's going to need deeper relationships than that in congress on a larger scale to do anything and that's just on the Democratic side. And that's ignoring the process of it all which tilt against him.



True.
If you actually believe this, it explains a lot about your posts. I think it's an inaccurate claim, but it at least explains where you're coming from.

I don't think anybody here except for the handful of conservatives lurking around would say they hate Pelosi more than Trump. What differentiates the two is that we have no power over Trump, while Pelosi can be and has been encouraged to support progressive causes by the left wing of the party and their constituents. This is why criticism of Pelosi is common.

As for Bernie's coalition building, how much of that is his responsibility? He's found many allies in people like Warren and AOC, because they support the same causes that he does. He can encourage others to adopt his policies and advocate all he wants, but only some people will be receptive to that.

How many coalitions had Obama built by the time he was elected, given how quick his ascent took place?

And hell, how many coalitions has any other candidate built. From the first time I'd read this argument, it seemed like Sanders was being held to a far higher standard than other candidate.
 
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Ichthyosaurus

Banned
Dec 26, 2018
9,375
If you actually believe this, it explains a lot about your posts. I think it's an inaccurate claim, but it at least explains where you're coming from.

I don't think anybody here except for the handful of conservatives lurking around would say they hate Pelosi more than Trump. What differentiates the two is that we have no power over Trump, while Pelosi can be and has been encouraged to support progressive causes by the left wing of the party and their constituents. This is why criticism of Pelosi is common.

The majority of posters I've seen dunking on Pelosi here come from the left, not the right. Conservatives in OT are practically unicorns. I agree that Pelosi should be criticised, however, where I draw the line is where all the responsibility falls on her and while she has immense responsibility this ignores many things outside of her control and are working against her both within and without the Democratic party. Far too often people assume what she's doing is protecting Trump when that's really what's McConnell's doing all along, despite that she gets ten times more ink spilled negatively in her direction than he ever did in this forum. Pelosi encouraging the left should seen as a positive thing not make her enemy #1 in congress, that's what an ally does not an enemy. Criticism is expected, holding her accountable for everything wrong in congress is not.

This isn't about power, per se. Neither McConnell, nor Pelosi will be affected by what people say on a message board. They only thing which will impact them is either the law arresting them, or getting replaced in an election and the latter will be settled in a voting booth not an internet forum. ERA could have just as many threads about shitting on McConnell and he'd get the exact same impact politically. While hurting Pelosi may hurt turnout to a small degree, she's absolutely safe both in her district and holding the Speakership from leftist challengers.

As for Bernie's coalition building, how much of that is his responsibility? He's found many allies in people like Warren and AOC, because they support the same causes that he does. He can encourage others to adopt his policies and advocate all he wants, but only some people will be receptive to that.

That's all his responsibility, like every candidate running for president - and it doesn't usually start when entering the primaries, that's what politicians spend the entire career making alliances and friends and he's spent decades in congress so he less excuse then most. If those are all the allies he has in congress he's not getting anything done, he needs hundreds of allies not a few and the JD's aren't all going to fall into lock step with him as shown with the recent voting bills. It's not his job to "encourage" people to join him, he has to convince them to - if he fails to do that he won't have a coalition in congress worth anything, and he has to maintain whatever grip he has which is a trick in itself. Lots of politicians believe in Bernie's causes, what they disagree with him about is his stubbornness and implementation. Believing in the same goals is nowhere near what he needs, he need them to sign off on his methods for his bills or they're dead on arrival. Look at what AOC's Green New Deal is going through, that's a preview of what his bills would be like in the process. If only some people in congress are receptive to his ideas he's already failed his mission.

How many coalitions had Obama built by the time he was elected, given how quick his ascent took place?

Obama's a rare politician that built a coalition with only a few years under is belt, and solidified that coalition from Hillary in '08. And he still failed the majority of his goals because the forces working against him were stronger than what he built. And he managed to build a coalition stronger than Bernie ever did, despite his short time as an active politician compared to Bernie.

For example, this article goes into what the Obama coalition looked like.


Now, her campaign envisions replicating the coalition that backed Barack Obama's 2008 primary upset: "Asians, Latinos and other voters of color, as well as educated white liberals" and young voters.

However, when I say coalition it's not simply about the voting blocs, it's about allies in congress and the Democratic party itself. Without them the POTUS influence drastically shrinks. Every president needs to be able to work with the party and get them to back them up, that's the point of joining a politician party.

And hell, how many coalitions has any other candidate built. From the first time I'd read this argument, it seemed like Sanders was being held to a far higher standard than other candidate.

Every president builds a coalition while running, however, Bernie's mission requires more set up given the make up of his agenda since he's in a capitalist country operating on a socialist agenda. Obama had huge goals in reforming the system but that pales to what Bernie wants to do. I'm holding Bernie to his own standard, given he isn't a typical candidate with his agenda. Bigger goals require bigger coalitions, and he requires more people to be in lockstep than the rest. So far every nominee has had incremental plans and this is not what Bernie wants. He wants the big changes, and he's not going to get it simply by absorbing incremental inclined allies. He needs socialists, not capitalists, and they're in short supply in congress in both chambers.
 

Troast

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
844
Liz has a lot of support and I knew this kind of momentum would push her to the nom. President Warren will be amazing, with Inslee VP to make sure the climate change policy is even better than the new green deal.
 

Goat Mimicry

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,920


Calling it a meditation commune doesn't do it justice. These people are fucking quacks who believe their brand of meditation allows them to levitate once they get really good at bouncing on their asses.

There are videos of people having ass-bouncing races, and these guys will swear to you that the spines of the racers don't move because they're really just hovering in short bursts.