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Early voting continues at a record pace. 95 million+ in 2020 exceeding all early votes in 2016. Early Votes nearing 65% of 2016 Totals [Updated 11-01]

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Version 3.0

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Oct 27, 2017
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DjDeathCool said:
Okay, so here's my question: if a state is waiting on 50k uncounted mail in ballots but Biden has a 100k lead, will they call the state? How does this work? Are we likely to have many states that have enough uncounted ballots on election night to swing a state either way?
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The media will make plenty of calls, and often with data that's considerably less clear (to the layman) than this. But it is not done frivolously. I don't recall any instances of states being called incorrectly since Florida in 2000 (if indeed it was).

The states themselves will count all the votes, give or take GOP lawsuits to prevent that, and will not declare winners until days or weeks after election day. Nobody will be paying attention when they do, because the media will have long since called those states, and correctly.
 
djplaeskool

djplaeskool

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Oct 26, 2017
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Version 3.0 said:
The media will make plenty of calls, and often with data that's considerably less clear (to the layman) than this. But it is not done frivolously. I don't recall any instances of states being called incorrectly since Florida in 2000 (if indeed it was).
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Yeah, the various media outlet decision desks are actually extraordinarily careful and extremely methodical when it comes to projections.
The nation hinges on these election night calls prior to getting certified results and no one wants to get them wrong.
 

Dark Cloud

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Oct 27, 2017
61,087
Here's a good idea. Stop worrying about every single poll that comes out. The results are literally coming in 2 days.
 
Tahnit

Tahnit

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Oct 25, 2017
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Thequietone said:
Looks like a dominant Biden win but there will be a red mirage on Tuesday at first. Which means it'll look like Trump is dominating but he isn't.
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Im very worried about these reports of USPS slowing down ballots. Over 17 million of them in swing states. That could instantly fuck over millions of votes if states dont count them after the 3rd.
 
Bisha Monkey

Bisha Monkey

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Aug 12, 2018
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Drakeon said:
Eh, People are rightfully exhausted about Trump and his scandals being in the headlines every fucking day of the year for the last 4 years. They want a break. They want to be able to forget about the President.
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I mean if politics had been an integral part of social discourse, Trump would have never had a chance of becoming president. Simple as that.
 
Thequietone

Thequietone

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Oct 26, 2017
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Tahnit said:
Im very worried about these reports of USPS slowing down ballots. Over 17 million of them in swing states. That could instantly fuck over millions of votes if states dont count them after the 3rd.
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There's evidence it would hurt Republicans more than Democrats. I doubt it will cost us the election , most people knew not to trust the mail and got it done early or did it in person.
 
Plax

Plax

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Nov 23, 2019
2,842
Considering taking the day off to watch the election coverage. But I also don't want to drive myself crazy.
 
julian

julian

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Oct 27, 2017
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I'm so confused why people seem surprised that Trump is saying he will announce himself the winner if he's in the lead on Election Day. They have been pretty clear about this being their strategy months ago.
Also, I've definitely been one of the doomier posters in the past. I felt some were underestimating the level of fuckery they were going to pull, or too focused on knowing specifics in advance, but what I didn't think/know/understand/whatever was just how fucking fired up voters would be and how many votes would already be counted before November 3rd. There's only so much reality they can deny and push back against and it really is feeling like it's at a level they won't be able to litigate away. The complete collapse of Trump's campaign cause of the debate and Covid over the past two months didn't hurt either.
 
jakomocha

jakomocha

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Oct 29, 2017
2,609
California
Tahnit said:
Im very worried about these reports of USPS slowing down ballots. Over 17 million of them in swing states. That could instantly fuck over millions of votes if states dont count them after the 3rd.
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Fuck, and most of the swing states don't accept ballots past election day


Arizona -- ballots only accepted by Election Day
Florida -- ballots only accepted by election day
Georgia -- ballots only accepted by 7 pm election day
Iowa -- ballots accepted by Nov 9th
Michigan -- ballots only accepted by 8pm election day
Minnesota -- ballots only accepted by election day
Nevada -- ballots accepted by Nov 10th
North Carolina -- ballots accepted by Nov 12th
Ohio -- ballots accepted by Nov 13th
Pennsylvania -- unclear, currently a legal battle
Wisconsin — ballots only accepted by election day
 
delete12345

delete12345

One Winged Slayer
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Nov 17, 2017
20,143
Boston, MA
So, early votes counting ends today, or tomorrow?

And then the results will appear on November 3, right?

Or, is it November 3, that ends the election day, and any ballots casted after (unless ordered by courts) aren't counted, and therefore the results will appear next weekend?
 
delete12345

delete12345

One Winged Slayer
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Nov 17, 2017
20,143
Boston, MA
Br3wnor said:
I'm colorblind so this map is a nightmare, are those mostly Republican counties that are the highest % votes compared to 2016?
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Quick tip for colorblinds:

  1. Copy the image and paste it to MsPaint, or some drawing software.
  2. Find a color picker tool.
  3. Use the tool to scan all of the colors you see. Inspect the R, G, and B values.
  4. ???
  5. Profit!
 
MechDX

MechDX

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,688
Br3wnor said:
I'm colorblind so this map is a nightmare, are those mostly Republican counties that are the highest % votes compared to 2016?
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Basically shows in the second map the little pockets of blue (dem leaning counties) in seas of red. The 2020 map.shows how the record breaking early voting is spreading out from those single blue counties. Every county between Harris and Travis (Austin) had record turnout. These are the large suburbs spreading outward

Also all the blue in the 2nd map near the bottom? Rio Grande Valley area. Large hispanic population that doesn't vote historically until ED.

The two counties up in the panhandle intrigue me though. That is Amarillo. They have a fast growing wind and solar industry
 
Vault Boy

Vault Boy

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Nov 2, 2017
2,416
It's going to be something else if things pan out so that all of these states that are very close in polling end up going to Biden. I don't expect it, but I sure would love to see it.
 
Starmud

Starmud

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Oct 27, 2017
1,450


.....

what is with his ads in the final days becoming more and more cringe/meme filled. the youtube ones are especially AWFUL with click bait looking thumbnails.
 
krazen

krazen

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Oct 27, 2017
13,530
Gentrified Brooklyn
julian said:
I'm so confused why people seem surprised that Trump is saying he will announce himself the winner if he's in the lead on Election Day. They have been pretty clear about this being their strategy months ago.
Also, I've definitely been one of the doomier posters in the past. I felt some were underestimating the level of fuckery they were going to pull, or too focused on knowing specifics in advance, but what I didn't think/know/understand/whatever was just how fucking fired up voters would be and how many votes would already be counted before November 3rd. There's only so much reality they can deny and push back against and it really is feeling like it's at a level they won't be able to litigate away. The complete collapse of Trump's campaign cause of the debate and Covid over the past two months didn't hurt either.
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Agreed. There's a torrent of votes already counted and news media only cares about being the first to correctly call the states because of the eyeballs it brings. Even Foxnews, as state media as it is, really worships one god at the end of the day, ratings.

Unless it's really close which no one is saying now, I don't see a scenario where a solid picture doesn't form late Tuesday and while Trump maytry to fight it out on the state level unless its actual factual proof of tampering/miscounted votes its going to be tough when all the the channels and news media are calling it for Biden.

Obviously in the GOP's mind the key is the apathetic voter and voter disenfranchisement but really at this point I would already be going the opposite way in hopes of muddying things. "Im down by 5% but maybe all those 100k votes might be going my way, U can't call it until we spend the next two weeks counting it"

But that's not the play. He would need to have 2000 Florida happen again, and also happen in Penn, Arizona, North Carolina...to change the narrative
 
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