Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of January and February. Normally this is a simple month to month comparison as both January and February have 4 weeks, except every five to six years January becomes a 5 week month. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for February to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.
Code:
2014
Xbox One January: 143K / 4 = 35,750
Xbox One February: 258K / 4 = 64,500
Weekly average +80%
PS4 January: 271K / 4 = 67,750
PS4 February: 269K / 4 = 67,250
Weekly average -1%
Notable Events in February
Xbox One
Tax Returns
The LEGO Movie Videogame [4 weeks]
Thief [1 week]
Plants vs Zombies: Garden Warfare [1 week]
PS4
Tax Returns / Supply constrained: Demand > Supply
The LEGO Movie Videogame [4 weeks]
Thief [1 week]
Code:
2015
Xbox One January: 150K / 4 = 37,500
Xbox One February: 276K / 4 = 69,000
Weekly average +84%
PS4 January: 189K / 4 = 47,250
PS4 February: 342K / 4 = 85,500
Weekly average +81%
Notable Events in February
Xbox One
Tax Returns
Evolve [3 weeks]
Dragon Ball: Xenoverse [1 week]
PS4
Tax Returns
Evolve [3 weeks]
Order 1886 [2 weeks] [19XK]
Dragon Ball: Xenoverse [1 week]
Code:
2016
Xbox One January: 131K / 4 = 32,750
Xbox One February: 248K / 4 = 62,000
Weekly average +89%
PS4 January: 229K / 4 = 57,250
PS4 February: 405K / 4 = 101,250
Weekly average +77%
Notable Events in February
Xbox One
Tax Returns
Name Your Game 500GB Bundle $349 [Forza 6/Tomb Raider/Gears UE/Rare Replay] [3 weeks]
Far Cry Primal [1 week] [157K]
Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 4 [3 weeks] [<97K]
PS4
Tax Returns
Far Cry Primal 1TB bundle $399 [1 week]
Street Fighter V [2 weeks] [~207K]
Far Cry Primal [1 week] [206K]
Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 4 [3 weeks] [<193K]
Code:
2017
Xbox One January: 158K / 4 = 39,500
Xbox One February: 215K / 4 = 53,750
Weekly average +36%
PS4 January: 211K / 4 = 52,750
PS4 February: 398K / 4 = 99,500
Weekly average +89%
Notable Events in February
Xbox One
Tax Returns / Earned-Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) delayed to February 15
Price Cut $50 February 17th - February 25th [9 days] 500GB $249 / 1TB $299
Forza Horizon 3 500GB bundle $299 [3 weeks]
Halo Wars 2: Ultimate Edition 1TB bundle $349 [2 weeks]
For Honor [2 weeks]
Halo Wars 2 [1 week]
PS4
Tax Returns / Earned-Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) delayed to February 15
PS4 500GB Price Cut $50 February 12th - February 25th [14 days] 500GB $249
Call of Duty Infinite Warfare Deluxe Edition Glacier White 500GB Bundle $299 [Walmart] [3 weeks]
Nioh [3 weeks]
For Honor [2 weeks]
Code:
2018
Switch January: 275K / 5 = 55,000
Switch February: 279K / 4 = 69,750
Weekly average +27%
Xbox One January: 235K / 5 = 47,000
Xbox One February: 310K / 4 = 77,500
Weekly average +65%
PS4 January: 254K / 5 = 50,800
PS4 February: 363K / 4 = 90,750
Weekly average +79%
Notable Events in February
Switch
Tax Returns
Xbox One
Tax Returns
Price Cut $50 February 18th - March 3rd [14 days] 500GB $229 / 1TB $249
PUBG with every Xbox One X February 18th - February 24th [7 days]
PUBG 1TB Bundle $299 [2 weeks]
Kingdom Come Deliverance [3 weeks]
PS4
Tax Returns
GameStop Only: Trade in PS4/XB1/NSW and get up to $350 towards PS4 Pro. Offer valid 1/26/18 - 2/11/18 [9 days in January NPD / 8 days in February NPD]
Shadow of the Colossus [4 weeks]
Kingdom Come Deliverance [3 weeks]
Code:
2019
Switch January: 284K / 4 = 71,000
Switch February: 363K / 4 = 90,750
Weekly average +28%
Xbox One January: 101K / 4 = 25,250
Xbox One February: 225K / 4 = 56,250
Weekly average +123%
PS4 January: 195K / 4 = 48,750
PS4 February: 283K / 4 = 70,750
Weekly average +45%
Notable Events in February
Switch
Tax Returns
Switch + $35 eShop code Bundle $299 [3 weeks]
Xbox One
Tax Returns
Xbox One X Fallout 76 1TB Bundles $399 [February 2 - March 31]
Xbox One X Bundles $449 / Xbox One S Bundles $249 [February 17 - March 2] [2 weeks]
Xbox One X Metro Saga 1TB Bundle $499 [$449 during price cut]
Xbox One S 1TB Anthem Bundle $299 [$249 during price cut]
Anthem [2 weeks]
Crackdown 3 [3 weeks]
Far Cry: New Dawn [3 weeks]
Metro Exodus [3 weeks]
Jump Force [3 weeks]
Dead or Alive 6 [1 week]
PS4
Tax Returns
Anthem [2 weeks]
Far Cry: New Dawn [3 weeks]
Metro Exodus [3 weeks]
Jump Force [3 weeks]
Dead or Alive 6 [1 week]
Code:
2020
Switch January: 275K / 4 = 68,750
Switch February: 333K / 4 = 83,250
Weekly average +21%
Xbox One January: 60K / 4 = 15,000
Xbox One February: 130K / 4 = 32,500
Weekly average +117%
PS4 January: 120K / 4 = 30,000
PS4 February: 141K / 4 = 35,250
Weekly average +18%
Notable Events in February
Switch
Tax Returns
Xbox One
Tax Returns
Xbox One X $349 [Jan 19 - Feb 16] [First 2 weeks in February NPD]
Xbox One S All-Digital Edition $199 / Xbox One S $249 / Xbox One X $299 [Feb 21 - Mar 7] [Last 2 weeks in February NPD]
PS4
Tax Returns
Code:
2021 January Weekly Averages *Using Prediction math
NSW: 382K - 389K / 4 = 95,500 - 97,250
PS5: 262K - 267K / 4 = 65,500 - 66,750
XBS: <158K / 4 = <39,500
Notable Events in February
COVID
Switch
Supply Constraints
Tax Returns
Switch Mario Red & Blue Edition $299
Super Mario 3D World Plus Bowser's Fury [3 weeks]
Xbox Series
Supply Constraints
Tax Returns
Limited store restocks [Week 1 - 3] (Walmart Week 1, Amazon Week 2, Best Buy Series S Week 3)
Massive retailer restock [Week 4] (GameStop, Walmart, Target, Best Buy, MS Store)
PS5
Supply Constraints
Tax Returns
Limited store restocks [Week 1 - 3] (Walmart + Target Week 1, Sony Direct Week 2, Amazon ($499) + Best Buy + Target + Sony Direct Week 3)
Massive retailer restock [Week 4] (GameStop, Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Sony Direct)
Notes
From one of the slowest months of the year to the (usually) biggest non holiday month of the year, February is a massive improvement over January, almost doubling sales. This is thanks to tax returns.
COVID times though, so all sales are limited by supply.
We have a new generation and it's probably the worst supply constrained launch yet. Demand is nowhere near satisfied and supply is sent randomly and infrequently. Switch is in Wii/DS mode where Nintendo will sell every console shipped.
For Switch, the Mario Edition console would have been a big seller and Nintendo usually gets more stock in February than January which is pretty much a layover between December and February. Nintendo has also increased production of the Switch since last year because of the insane demand and were able to supply over 500K a month back in August.
PS5 will likely continue to follow how PS4 performed at launch, meaning February would be around January sales. UK and Japan sales showed decent increases in February over January, so maybe PS5 also sees a boost.
Xbox is a bit of a mystery. Not much to go off of.
Recap
February is the third strongest selling month of the year behind November and December. Massive, almost doubling sales from January unless January was a 5 week month.
The biggest February ever recorded back in the 7th gen was the Wii with 753,000 back in 2009. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 535,000 in 2011.
The biggest February ever recorded in the previous gen was the PS4 with 404,900 in 2016. Second biggest? PS4 again with 398,000 in 2017.
