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Keyser S

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
8,480
One thing i just realized about all these weirdly stated high mana cards with a cool battlecry/effect.

A lot of the evolve/discover mechanics are getting nerfed a tad as a result.
 

gutshot

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,447
Toscana, Italy
I was bored last night and thought it would be fun to try to objectively score the Frozen Throne cards and their impact on the meta and then compare that to the scores we collectively rated them prior to the set release. So I went to HSReplay and pulled all the relevant data and dropped it into a spreadsheet. Through some trial-and-error of various formulae, I was able to come up with a 1-5 score for each card, based on its deck winrate, its played winrate and the amount of times its played. I've called it Meta Rating and, while it is almost totally arbitrary, it does seem to match pretty well the subjective scores that most would apply to each card. I've added all this data to our ratings spreadsheet on the tab called "HSReplay Stats".

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LLHGCAPCvMjlzw3bXx8emy87nYm7v2s17d1igF2Cf7M/edit?usp=sharing

On the "Scores" tab, I included the Meta Rating and then did some calculations to see how close our collective ratings were to each card's Meta Rating. You can sort the list by each column by clicking the Filter button in the toolbar or hovering over the column header and selecting your sort via the dropdown. The "Difference" column shows the difference between our rating and the Meta Rating; a positive number means we overestimated the card's meta impact, a negative number means we underestimated it. The "Accuracy" column shows how close our rating was to the card's Meta Rating in percent. So we were waaaaay off on Prince Keleseth, but pretty close on most cards, with over 90% accuracy on close to half the set. Our total accuracy score on the whole set was 86%. Not bad!

Anyway, I had fun messing with the data and hopefully someone else besides me finds it interesting. I might next try to compare the Meta Rating to each individual's card ratings and then give an accuracy score for each person, so we can see who is the best card predictor amongst our group. Might be good to know while we sit here arguing about the upcoming cards!
 

sibarraz

Prophet of Regret - One Winged Slayer
Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
18,154
With that card now I can play 2 doomguards without beinf afraid of discarding one of them.

Only for doomguard I think that is great that the card is at the beggining of the turn, also some other minions that are not good enough when you drop them from your hand. And even with that minion that recovers a destroyed weapon you shouldn't be that afraid of being oozed
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,432
With that card now I can play 2 doomguards without beinf afraid of discarding one of them.

Only for doomguard I think that is great that the card is at the beggining of the turn, also some other minions that are not good enough when you drop them from your hand. And even with that minion that recovers a destroyed weapon you shouldn't be that afraid of being oozed

This card isnt even close to worth spending 13 mana on, 5 for wep -->oozed---> 3 recover wep ---> 5 for wep ---> 1 demon at start of following turn that cant even attack until the NEXT turn without charge.

Terrible.
 
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Infernodash

Member
Oct 28, 2017
55
New York City
Those stats and scores were awesome. Thank you for putting it together. I remember we all panned Kalseeth and considered it auto dust. Never knew it would come this far.
 

Schreckstoff

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,620
I was bored last night and thought it would be fun to try to objectively score the Frozen Throne cards and their impact on the meta and then compare that to the scores we collectively rated them prior to the set release. So I went to HSReplay and pulled all the relevant data and dropped it into a spreadsheet. Through some trial-and-error of various formulae, I was able to come up with a 1-5 score for each card, based on its deck winrate, its played winrate and the amount of times its played. I've called it Meta Rating and, while it is almost totally arbitrary, it does seem to match pretty well the subjective scores that most would apply to each card. I've added all this data to our ratings spreadsheet on the tab called "HSReplay Stats".

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LLHGCAPCvMjlzw3bXx8emy87nYm7v2s17d1igF2Cf7M/edit?usp=sharing

On the "Scores" tab, I included the Meta Rating and then did some calculations to see how close our collective ratings were to each card's Meta Rating. You can sort the list by each column by clicking the Filter button in the toolbar or hovering over the column header and selecting your sort via the dropdown. The "Difference" column shows the difference between our rating and the Meta Rating; a positive number means we overestimated the card's meta impact, a negative number means we underestimated it. The "Accuracy" column shows how close our rating was to the card's Meta Rating in percent. So we were waaaaay off on Prince Keleseth, but pretty close on most cards, with over 90% accuracy on close to half the set. Our total accuracy score on the whole set was 86%. Not bad!

Anyway, I had fun messing with the data and hopefully someone else besides me finds it interesting. I might next try to compare the Meta Rating to each individual's card ratings and then give an accuracy score for each person, so we can see who is the best card predictor amongst our group. Might be good to know while we sit here arguing about the upcoming cards!
That's pretty neat. I was ver negative on the majority of cards in KotFT. Keleseth gets a pass because it wasn't all that great before the druid nerfs.
 

Rhiwion

Member
Oct 28, 2017
173
Germany
It's a bit disingenuous to write off a card because potential counterplay exists. Just because Oozes and Harrison exist doesn't mean that your weapon is gonna get removed the second it hits the board, lmao. By that logic, literally every minion or spell is trash because removal and silence exist.

Also consider that people teching in weapon removal is gonna hurt their matchup against every deck that doesn't run weapons.

Not going into the need for counterplay to exist in the first place or do you all just want instant win conditions?

This really comes down to how the meta is gonna turn out so writing off the WL weapon as trash is kinda weak.

Atiesh saw a lot of play and with that one you can only start getting value out of it on the turn afterwards in almost all cases. And Atiesh came down much much later into the game meaning there's a higher chance for removal to be drawn.
 

Deleted member 4367

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
12,226
Big pile of stats minions are bad if they make no impact on the board. Because they just get removed.

Atiesh you get a 7/7 with it.
 

Grief.exe

Member
Oct 26, 2017
432
I was bored last night and thought it would be fun to try to objectively score the Frozen Throne cards and their impact on the meta and then compare that to the scores we collectively rated them prior to the set release. So I went to HSReplay and pulled all the relevant data and dropped it into a spreadsheet. Through some trial-and-error of various formulae, I was able to come up with a 1-5 score for each card, based on its deck winrate, its played winrate and the amount of times its played. I've called it Meta Rating and, while it is almost totally arbitrary, it does seem to match pretty well the subjective scores that most would apply to each card. I've added all this data to our ratings spreadsheet on the tab called "HSReplay Stats".

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LLHGCAPCvMjlzw3bXx8emy87nYm7v2s17d1igF2Cf7M/edit?usp=sharing

On the "Scores" tab, I included the Meta Rating and then did some calculations to see how close our collective ratings were to each card's Meta Rating. You can sort the list by each column by clicking the Filter button in the toolbar or hovering over the column header and selecting your sort via the dropdown. The "Difference" column shows the difference between our rating and the Meta Rating; a positive number means we overestimated the card's meta impact, a negative number means we underestimated it. The "Accuracy" column shows how close our rating was to the card's Meta Rating in percent. So we were waaaaay off on Prince Keleseth, but pretty close on most cards, with over 90% accuracy on close to half the set. Our total accuracy score on the whole set was 86%. Not bad!

Anyway, I had fun messing with the data and hopefully someone else besides me finds it interesting. I might next try to compare the Meta Rating to each individual's card ratings and then give an accuracy score for each person, so we can see who is the best card predictor amongst our group. Might be good to know while we sit here arguing about the upcoming cards!


Everyone knows that Keleseth was going to be the big looser here, but the interesting one is actually Valeera.

Probably one of the more interesting cards printed in this expansion, but ended up having almost no effect on the meta....yet
 

QFNS

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
935
Everyone knows that Keleseth was going to be the big looser here, but the interesting one is actually Valeera.

Probably one of the more interesting cards printed in this expansion, but ended up having almost no effect on the meta....yet

Yet being the important word here. If miracle rogue comes back (and looking at Cheat Death + Auctioneer it is poised to), then Valeera will be front and center in that deck. That hero power is INSANE for miracle rogue.
 

Wiibomb

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
4,713
so finally...

finally


I got a friend quest again. the last one was about a week before the release of KFT, so this is like 4 months after that...

I want to share it with someone else from here, reply to me with your tag to add you, NA please.

No traders please.

EDIT: taken by grief
 
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Karsticles

Self-Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,198
Disappointments for Warrior and Warlock today. Just blatantly uninteresting, and likely bad.
 

Deleted member 4367

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
12,226
Shaman got a great card to counter all the bad evolves you can get now.



**Unstable Evolution**

**Class:** Shaman

**Card type:** Spell

**Rarity:** Epic

**Mana cost:** 1

**Card text:** Transform a friendly minion into one that costs (1) more. Repeatable this turn.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,432
It's a bit disingenuous to write off a card because potential counterplay exists. Just because Oozes and Harrison exist doesn't mean that your weapon is gonna get removed the second it hits the board, lmao. By that logic, literally every minion or spell is trash because removal and silence exist.

Also consider that people teching in weapon removal is gonna hurt their matchup against every deck that doesn't run weapons.

Not going into the need for counterplay to exist in the first place or do you all just want instant win conditions?

This really comes down to how the meta is gonna turn out so writing off the WL weapon as trash is kinda weak.

Atiesh saw a lot of play and with that one you can only start getting value out of it on the turn afterwards in almost all cases. And Atiesh came down much much later into the game meaning there's a higher chance for removal to be drawn.

Even without weapon removal the warlock card stinks. When it comes down at the start of a turn it cant attack that turn, unless its doomcharge.

Its like alaram o bot, but more limited. Weapon removal will be run, and you will be running it too, so its equal. Both of your decks will be 'worsened' an equal amount. My main argument was directed at tje person saying not to worry because of the card that can give you the weapon back. It takes a much too slow underwhelming effect and makes it more than twice as slow lol. Goes from unplayable to ridiculous misplay in that case. If it had been end of turn it could be playable, but a good chance of getting 0 value from a 5 drop with underwhelming effect isnt worth it. At all. The effect would have to be much better to take the risk of a completely wasted turn.

I dont know what they were thinking. They should have taken it in a different direction when they saw this is what they ended up with. Awful.

Atiesh gave a big body, and then added value for spells you were already going to play. Very different. Even if you got oozed you got a 7/7. A decent amount of decks ran weapon removal before, even more will now, for sure. I dont teally get your point about the minions. All thos does is take a,minion from your hand. It uses a resource still. Yes, they would have to teade or use resource to remove. Whats your point lol.
 
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JetBlackSVW

Member
Oct 27, 2017
133
Got beaten badly by a C'Thun Druid and later by a Jade Druid. What is the best way to deal with those decks?

Can you stop C'Thun from being buffed? It seems to me that he is mainly buffed with battlecries, so I guess you can't prevent this, but maybe with Dirty Rat?

What is the best way to deal with the first Jade Golem, kill him as late as possible to delay the Jade Train? I know of Skulking Geist, but I don't have enough dust:(

Playing a Control Mage and some kind of Budget Tempo Rogue by the way.
 

Keyser S

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
8,480
It's a pity Thijs did not request some clips from Blizz for his reveal, they are supposed to be able to send out clips of the card in action to anyone that wants them for thier reveal content. Would have liked to see that card in action.
 

Keyser S

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
8,480
What do they mean for repeatable?, you were always able to evolve twice in a turn.

The card can be used as many times as you want in one turn as long as you have mana. You could play Snowflipper Penguin and use Unstable Evolution on it 10 times in a row to get a 10 Mana minion - or you could stop anywhere along the way. The card will only leave you hand at the end of the turn.

It is also not limited to one minion. You could play Saronite Chain Gang on Turn 8, and evolve one there times and other other once.

It is basically a precision evolving card
 

hombremalo

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,959
The card can be used as many times as you want in one turn as long as you have mana. You could play Snowflipper Penguin and use Unstable Evolution on it 10 times in a row to get a 10 Mana minion - or you could stop anywhere along the way. The card will only leave you hand at the end of the turn.

It is also not limited to one minion. You could play Saronite Chain Gang on Turn 8, and evolve one there times and other other once.

It is basically a precision evolving card

Thanks

I think it's crazy good
 

sibarraz

Prophet of Regret - One Winged Slayer
Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
18,154
Which is the dream scenario that will totally appear on trollden were all the evolutions are charge minions?
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,693
The dream scenario is getting sorc apprentice or the priest one and getting infinite evolves for the rest of the turn. But yeah there is a dream scenario where you get leeroy into rocketeet into devilsaur into alakir or gromm into king krush
 

Wiibomb

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
4,713
just imagine the scenario where I somehow get sorcerer's prentice or radiant elemental out of one evolve of those?

I can get to do infinite evolves on any other minion I want.. that's INSANE.
 

Keyser S

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
8,480
It looks like 10 free packs total for Kobolds

Three as a launch login bonus. Three via Dungeon Run attempts, and four via the ongoing tavern brawls in the run up to launch. So everyone is guaranteed at least one legendary from packs without even spending gold. I think that is the first time blizzard offered enough free packs at launch to guarantee a legend card. Add in the free weapon, and it arguably feels generous.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,693
It looks like 10 free packs total for Kobolds

Three as a launch login bonus. Three via Dungeon Run attempts, and four via the ongoing tavern brawls in the run up to launch. So everyone is guaranteed at least one legendary from packs without even spending gold. I think that is the first time blizzard offered enough free packs at launch to guarantee a legend card. Add in the free weapon, and it arguably feels generous.

I think MSG had several free packs, I can't remember how many but I want to say 3 per faction quest which could be completely wrong. Granted, at the time the legendary in first 10 packs was not guaranteed.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,432
It looks like 10 free packs total for Kobolds

Three as a launch login bonus. Three via Dungeon Run attempts, and four via the ongoing tavern brawls in the run up to launch. So everyone is guaranteed at least one legendary from packs without even spending gold. I think that is the first time blizzard offered enough free packs at launch to guarantee a legend card. Add in the free weapon, and it arguably feels generous.

Yeah, this combined with a pteorder will be enough for me. Especially now that i feel free to disenchant KotFT legendaries i never touch.
 

DSP

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,120
so the spell remains in your hand and you can keep playing it? That's pretty good controllable RNG. Still too expensive for a single target evolve, I don't think it's playable but I like this repeat mechanic, hopefully we see it on a better card. Honestly they can't make it any cheaper either, it just sucks. Maybe you can utilize its effect as multiple spells in one card with witch doctor or similar, evolve your totems maybe.
 

Keyser S

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
8,480
I wonder what are the odds of hitting a Charge minion on your hunt up the evolve ladder? Could be an interesting way of finding lethal

Will definitely lead to a few fun highlights at least.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,165
Hopefully on release we get to disenchant out marins.

I don't want this non golden marin.
Yeah I agree. If they want to keep touting Marin as a true free legendary from Kobolds then you should be able to disenchant him. It's not like C'thun where a large part of the set focused directly on him. Not that I want to disenchant him, but Blizz acting like giving everyone Marin is part of the solution for Hearthstone's rising costs, while not letting people disenchant him for something they might need is silly.
 
Oct 27, 2017
6,024
Las Vegas
I really don't know how to feel about Unstable Evolution.

Fits pretty well into that single target evolve deck I'd like to see turn into a thing but it might be a bit cost prohibitive. Definitely seems tailored to minions you can cheat out, like Nerubian Prophet for example.

I don't know, I want to believe it's good but it could very well end up being useless. That said, Shaman has 3 cards left to reveal and there better be some busted shit in there if the class is going to be relevant at all over the next few months.
 

QFNS

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
935
Gadgetzan Auctioneer Shaman Boyz!

Yeah that card is fun. Not sure if the cost is going to be worth including it but I want to try it out just to see how wacky it can get with the deathknight too.
 
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