I imagine the Switch will be hard to get over the Christmas period with Smash and Pokemon out in the wild.
How confident are you that Nintendo will reach their 20 million target for Switch this year?
- Thread starter Mysterio79
- Start date
I think April/May is traditionally one of the slowest periods for game/console sales both in NA and Japan, so I don't think that's terrible.
from July 2017 to March 31 2018, Nintendo sold 13.1M units. and this is counting most of the year up to late October/ November Hardware was still low on stock.
During that Time, Games with hi potential to sell hardware were
Splatoon 2
Mario O
From July 2018 to March 2019, we will have (implying some)
Smash
Pokemon LG P/E
Fire Emblem Switch
Fortnite
Splatoon Octo DLC
They are gonna slay this holiday season.
During that Time, Games with hi potential to sell hardware were
Splatoon 2
Mario O
From July 2018 to March 2019, we will have (implying some)
Smash
Pokemon LG P/E
Fire Emblem Switch
Fortnite
Splatoon Octo DLC
They are gonna slay this holiday season.
People are putting a lot of emphasis on Snash and Pokemon being the drivers for large hardware numbers this year. Part of me thinks this is correct, as both of these push hardware. However, is the effect of these (or at least one: Smash) being overstated? There is already nearly what, 20m Switch systems in the wild. Surely a big chunk of the people that'll buy Smash already have the system? They wont need to buy new hardware in Q4.
Struck through the games that definitely aren't going to sell hardware.
You never planned to get one? You didn't expect Pokémon on Switch at some point?
This line of thinking doesn't make sense
We could say the same for PS4 in that people who were interested in GOW would've had the system already but it still sold loads when GOW launched. This line of thinking doesn't add up
Hentz (actually found a Comparison point)
not really, going by Nintendo IR, last year April to May they sold only 1.97M Switch, and this is 3 months after release with BotW fresh of the oven and Mario Kart 8.5 as system sellers, April being a 567K on basically nothing doesnt seems so bad.
That's what I'm thinking too. Should be quite interesting this holiday season.
Of course you're going to sell a lot to the existing base, but there are still plenty of folks who will grab a Switch for the game just like with the Wii U and 3DS before it. Sounds like you're saying it will be a muted system seller, despite the Switch having only sold ~20 million units thus far.
Haven't we had NPD reports explicitly mentioning the sales were in line with Nintendo's plans even in months with no new big software?
If you were to apply that line of thinking to every hardware, no consoles would sell more than 30M units.
Yes but facts aren't an issue for some people.
nothing? I cant help but feel like Nintendo was expecting the Labo to be the next Wii Sports/Fit kinda game that blow system sales up
Of course god of war sold hardware, just like any big game would. But what exactly is loads? I don't think god of war alone sold 5 million PS4s.
If they thought this then they would have actually marketed it.
Instead, marketing will likely ramp up for it in the holiday season which is when toys actually sell.
I agree with you on Fire Emblem (I mean, people will buy systems for it but not many comparatively) but the Octo Expansion is going to do very well for the hardware in Japan.
Calm down. It took DS owners 3 years to get a pokemon game, and we are getting the mainline one next year.
What's your beef?
Can you quantify loads? An increase in sales numbers is to be expected, my post was in reference to people believing its angiven that 20m target will be hit on the back of Smash and Pokemon. I'm a Nintendo fan. I'd like it to surpass this target. I just don't think it's a given.
Not saying it'll be a muted seller at all. I already said in my post that they'll push hardware.
Oh please. This is about the current FY's 20m target. Let's not get dramatic here.
Nintendo is always fairly conservative, I feel, with their sales goals. If they're saying they can hit 20 million this fiscal year, I think they can likely surpass it. We'll have a clearer picture next week, but I think Smash and Pokemon will help a lot. Animal Crossing and maybe some more Labo sets could also be huge this Holiday season.
I actually agree.
Smash certainly isn't a bigger hardware seller than a Mario Kart (even when said Mario kart is a re-release).
Let's just say I super doubt it. Octo Expansion isn't going to inflate the base game's sales much if at all.
If in the Year of Our Lord 2018 you're still questioning Smash's ability to sell systems, then I dunno what to tell ya.
Isn't splatoon huge in Japan and consistently in the top charts there? Even in the US it is always a top seller in the Eshop. I mean it isn't gonna do smash or Pokémon numbers but still.
I'm honestly quite certain they can crush that number. Seeing the success of the Switch and the games that we know of so far and currently have, even before E3 is quite mind blowing. It really boggles my mind to see what will really be revealed during this E3 if they are letting things like Pokemon & Smash be known about before E3 even hits. 30+ Million by the end of the year. I can totally see it happening.
This argument doesn't really work though. God of War shifted MASSES of PS4s and you'd think that most people who are interested in that wouldnalready have bought one.
And Smash Bros. sells Nintendo systems to people who would otherwise not buy a Nintendo system, in my experience.
It will for sure sell the system though. I'm thinking it'll move the baseline up by ~30-40k for a few weeks after it launches, even more if there's a bundle. Then in the holidays it'll be hard to account for its impact but I'm sure it'll be there.
You think the Switch will be selling 70-80k for a few weeks due to the expansion? I have my doubts but I sure hope you're right. The summer season should help at least.
Splatoon 2 is serious business in Japan. I imagine there will be a lot of heavy promotion around it, and people who may have sold their Switches will probably buy new ones.
I could be wrong but the summer in general looks to be extremely packed in Japan, so I could see it pulling those numbers more often than not anyway.
I agree.
Nintendo France is already reporting launch allocation of 600k for both Pokemon Let's go games. That's more than Sun and Moon ! Think about that ! That's just going to be huge ! And we have Smash 5 ???? HUGE !!!
I think theres a high probability we'll get animal crossing this year. If that's true shits gonna explode along with Pokemon and smash.
Do we have a number of PS4s it sold? Someone else mentioned God of War selling PS4s too, but I'm yet to see any numbers.
Also: again, I'm not saying Smash/Pokemon won't sell systems. They will. I just referred to the 20m target, and that perhaps too much stock is being put into these being the reason it hits this target when there is already a significant number of potential customers for these games that already own a Switch.
I'd personally like to see a price cut or some good bundling, which I think will help with the target also. I just don't think the Pokemon/Smash combo alone will do it.
was there a pokemon game on Wii ? or Wii U? i mean its not like Nintendo releases a main pokemon game on their console every time. So i thought it was possible they would now but it wasnt a 100% for me. The fact people are celebrating a full game for 2019 tells me i wasnt alone.
Its a long time since i played a nice mario game so pokemon wouldnt be the only thing that makes me get a switch at some point ^^
1. Wii and Wii U are not portables.
2. The Pokémon Company said last E3 that a mainline game was being made for Switch. They also said later on that there would be no more mainline Pokémon games on 3DS.
People are celebrating the 2019 game because it's confirmed to be gen 8, not because they didn't think Pokémon was coming to the Switch.
Where else would Pokémon go?
Smash is a system seller because it has a different audience than other Nintendo games.
Smash appeals to mainstream gamers who don't really care all that much about 3d mario or zelda games.
makes sense to make it for switch if they stop making it for 3ds. didnt know that.
It's selling 20M from April 2018-March 2019. So that would have to put the Switch at ~38.5M at the end of March 2019.
Only two of those games have high potential to sell hardware. I'd argue Yoshi will help sell more units than the non-bolded.
Do we think a single person* who doesn't already own the game is gonna buy a Switch + Splatoon 2 just to play the single-player DLC and get the Octoling skins?
Or even that that's what's pushing them over the edge?
* Read: A significant number of people.
Because that's what you're saying when you suggest that Octo Expansion is gonna sell hardware. People who buy the Octo Expansion are gonna be people who are into Splatoon. and Splatoon 2 being a huge success has nothing to do with an expansion that isn't out yet and wasn't announced for the first six months of its life; Octo Expansion itself is not gonna be a killer app.
There are still people buying Switches for Splatoon 2. Like, every day. Once the expansion comes out I'm saying there will probably be a few more, since some of those who have waited this long probably find that extra content to push them over the edge.
I don't really see why that's so controversial.
Maybe in Japan I dunno? I hear it is huge there but to what end I have no idea. Don't they have splatoon hologram concerts and such there?