How confident are you that Nintendo will reach their 20 million target for Switch this year?
- Thread starter Mysterio79
- Start date
How do you quantify that in any case? There are way too many variables that could dictate why somebody buys a given console when they do. At best one can just look at a number and say there may be correlation between the release of a game but it's going to be very hard to say the release of a specific game is quantifiable in a causal manner.
Interesting to know about Nintendo France! Thanks for the details
You're welcome. To give an idea of the scale of that shipement, Mario Odyssey - the best selling Switch game so far - had 350k day 1. So we're talking about pretty twice the amount of copies !
Source ( who had it from Twitter ) : https://www.google.es/amp/s//france...s-for-pokemon-lets-go-and-poke-ball-plus/amp/
I am looking at Smash + Pokemon being the big system pushers this year along with support from previous evergreens as well as some of the Wii U ports already released. I am, however, skeptical about it reaching 20 million without more aggressive pricing (I am thinking that overall sales for the fiscal year will be similar to last year, may be slightly lower); I also wonder what the power of Pokemon Let's Go will be considering there is some controversy around it (and if Smash is a port or not that much different from the Wii U version in terms of stages and modes; I can see that being a further hurdle for hardware sales). I am looking towards E3 right now, maybe some of the announcements will make me change my mind, but I am also skeptical. As doubtful as I am, I hope Nintendo brings some more surprises for E3 (outside of Fortnite and Paladins, which are no longer surprises but good for the system nonetheless), some more unannounced exclusives for the year would be very helpful and I would say critical to help the system keep good momentum.
That's the same as Sun/Moon actually, but yeah, Sun Moon were massive at launch, so them expecting Let's Go to do the same is a good sign.
Splatoon is the biggest franchise on a dedicated video game platform in Japan currently. The Octo Expansion will absolutely push more sales of the game, though I'm not so sure it's going to move significant hardware on top of that.
People have said a couple of times that GoW results in massive sales of PS4. I'm not saying it didn't. I just want to see some numbers. Or a press release or something to say that the console had a massive boost like the claims made here.
https://www.resetera.com/threads/np...ar-1-software-ps4-tops-hardware-charts.44243/
PS4 hardware sales driven by God of War. It had the highest console sales in April since the Wii in 2009.
Aha, I'd forgotten about this story. Yes, great results. However, one or two great months and a 20m target put on the shoulders of Pokemon and Smash alone is still a mean feat to achieve, IMO. Q4 has to do some crazy numbers, as sales will be heavily weighted for then. I hope it surpasses this figure actually, I just think it's gonna be tough.
It actually is fairly quantifiable and NPD collects data on that. Same reason we know that Fortnite has been moving a lot of systems.
And yes, God of War moved a massive number of consoles. It was the best April in like a decade for any console.
Sure, but I was originally responding to a post by Pablo Mesa that listed Octo Expansion as one of the "Games with hi potential to sell hardware" for this year, analogous to Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey last year. (Xenoblade 2 and Fire Emblem Warriors were omitted from that list, which for me set the low bar for inclusion in such a list.)
The big tell is when someone buys a console and a certain game(s) at the same time.
Oh gosh, that's a tough sell. Didn't realize that date range. I still think they stand a chance of reaching that goal.
Fire Emblem will sell some consoles, it's got a pretty dedicated audience that doesn't really overlap with other Nintendo stuff
Fire Emblem is going to be a big leap for the franchise IMO into the high budget tier and I think the game play is also going to be different to appeal to a more mainstream audience. Just my guess based on things the dev team has said.
I think Nintendo wants to graduate that franchise up a tier.
I think Nintendo wants to graduate that franchise up a tier.
They want to sell an additional 20 million within this fiscal year alone, not total ltd.
I think that's because, contrary to what people seem to be saying, there's no strong indicator that I've been shown that indicates something like that. Somebody else suggested that it was when people buy a console + the new game. Now, that could be an okay proxy, but that transaction doesn't necessarily mean that the sole reason the person purchased that console was due to the release of that game. Somebody also suggested that it's how we know Fortnite is moving units. I listened to what Mat from NPD said about accessory sales increasing because of Fortnite and it was pretty much just looking at accessories, looking at the popularity of a video game, maybe seeing some sort of correlation, and then calling it good.
Just because two things happen at the same time doesn't necessarily mean they happened because of each other. In some instances, they probably did, but I've never seen anybody come with any analysis that actually explores how those analysts or people got to that conclusion, rather than just stating the conclusion.
I don't think that's a good indicator when exploring causality
17.78M as of March 31st.
So probably over 20M now, the question is about selling an additional 20M between April 1st 2018 and March 31st 2019.
Pokemon is going to be a watershed event that pushes the "multiple Switches per household" issue.
My mistake. That number does seem pretty high, but I think Nintendo will have a very good lineup by the end of 2018, so maybe it's not impossible. Still though, 20 million..
The switch will never outsell the Gamecube. It only needs like a few million more to pass it but, I don't know, it's sales might defy every logical expectations and take a nosedive.
Also, since smash is a port (and no one buys Wii U ports) and pokemon is disliked by every person on this planet, they are going to flop, yeah.... so my prediction still stands.
/s
I still think you're wrong.
I'm sticking with my 16-18 million units for this fiscal year.
So if Switch hits 20 million for the year then Labo did it's job right?
Having actually played with Labo, it's definitely not gonna light the world on fire. That said, labo alongside games like yoshi, kirby, and let's go Definitely broaden the Appeal of switch. Not just to children, but to women and families.
Give me a number. What total labo sales by the end of fy19 would be needed to not be disappointing?
This is exactly the point. Nintendo knows Labo's not going to carry the Switch single handedly this year. But the fact that it's doing well, alongside other games like Let's go and other unannounced projects means Labo is doing what its supposed to do. Broaden the utility and appeal of the Switch for younger players and parents.
Causality is always determine quantitatively but looking at things like surveys or what games are sold with a new console are a fairly basic sanity check, especially when you know what it should approximately be selling this point in its lifecycle.
Matt's point about accessory sales being stronger than normal is actually fairly suggestive of Fortnite being causal effect btw (warning I haven't run the numbers). Using a statistical technique called Instrumental Variables you can estimate the causal of something like Fortnite on Playstation/Xbox sales, assuming you have something that should only be causally effected by Fortnite sales. While Headset sales are definitely caused to a certain extent by Playstation/xbox sales, you can definitely say something like proportion of people buying headsets actually shouldnt effect by if they buy a playstation/xbox (Its not a perfect IV though, but this is business not academia). Run the 2SLS and you can find the casual effect of Fortnite on Playstation 4/xbox one sales. I don't know if Matt was explicitly thinking in these terms, but him pointing this out is a credit to his judgement.
Why would anyone say that if the switch hit 20 million Labo did it's job regardless of any other info?? We're not talking about a vacuum here.
I think anything less than 2 million would be a pretty big disappointment. I personally thought it would hit 2-3 million. I think that Nintendo had a sales target of roughly 5 million. I'm basing this off the high initial shipment and how Nintendo repeatedly used the Labo as something to expand the switch audience and hit their goal of 20 million. They wouldn't have shipped so much if they thought all the stock would sit around until December.
Smash and Pokémon. They are bigger sellers than Mario and Zelda.
5 million labo in a single year? That would be insanity.
2 million is a more reasonable estimate. They might launch more labo skus in the fall. I think they'll comfortably sell 2 million by the end of fy 2019.
People's "intent" (the immeasurable thing you seem to be reaching for) isn't a good indicator of what actually sells systems. Their buying habits are, and what games tend to be picked up with a console are an indicator of buying habits.
Again this is revisionist history.... before Labo launched nobody would have batted an eye at a 5 million estimate. Calling that number insanity is fucking hilarious consider how optimistic people were before it launched. Now that we have the first mediocre sales and impressions 2 million is a realistic number (this assumes it picks back up at Christmas). If Nintendo was considering this a driver to hit 20 million there is no way the goal was so low.
There is but the logic isn't much different. It's nearly impossible for the Switch to do less than the 3DS unless sales fall off a cliff unprecedented
If the mainline Pokemon game is 2019 it may miss the fiscal year completely. Smash is comparable to one of Mario and Zelda, so what's the other?
I like how you're pretending Let's Go isn't going to move hardware.
There's a Pokemon game coming this year. It's essentially an expanded Pokemon Yellow remake with co-op and Pokemon Go compatibility and features. It's gonna be a bigger seller than Zelda, regardless of how much you don't like it, I'll tell you that much
LO is pointing to be a massive seller, hell are uou talking about??
With Pokemon and Smash coming, the only reason they won't surpass 20mi is because of supply constraints.
Have you ever played a mainline Pokemon game?
It's the opposite of casual.
Have you ever played a mainline Pokemon game?
It's the opposite of casual.
Wouldn't say I don't like it, but to move that amount of hardware people would have to be buying it on the name alone.
Snarky responses ignored. Make your point if you want a discussion.
The 2019 game will miss this fiscal year, they already said it's the second half of 2019. Let's Go will release this fiscal year and sell like crazy though.
What does this mean? Pokemon is really popular so of course the name will help.
............What? It's a brand new Pokemon RPG, on a popular Nintendo handheld, the first in HD, the first core game that can be played as a home console game on a TV, designed to appeal to lapsed fans and Pokemon Go players. It's literally covering all bases.
What about it makes you think it won't move huge amounts of hardware?
How can you have a serious discussion if you're outright writing off Lets go?
OG Lynx or the smaller Lynx 2?
The only question now IMO is how much Nintendo will surpass their prediction.