How confident are you that Nintendo will reach their 20 million target for Switch this year?

[Herb Alpert]

Remember when people were saying WiiU numbers were the ceiling for Nintendo consoles, because it was all the die hard fans that remain ?
Ho, and the graph with wii being the outlier but showing a clear downward trend ?

 

[kvetcha]

If Nintendo reached their target of 20 mil (which I guess is possible now?), how much will they have sold total?
Are we talking about 34 million?

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Just under 38m.

 

[Piston]

The stock is down because the general market is down.

What are people even investing for? For like 4-5 months? If you're serious about invested it should be on the basis of the company's long term fundamentals not the ups and downs of stock price. There is no stock in the world that will rise upwards all the time even if they hit every sales mark they want to hit.

Every tech company is down, Sony is way down, Apple is way down, Microsoft is down, Samsung is down.

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Like always, Nintendo's stock has taken a hit due to a number of reasons.

Analysts thought Nintendo was being too bullish on the Switch's shipment forecasts, mobile hasn't taken off as much as was initially hoped between Mario Run, Animal Crossing: Pocket Camp, and even Dragalia Lost, most deemed Nintendo's software release calendar light compounding the issue of the shipment forecasts, and then, of course, the overall market is down significantly in the last 6 months.

Mobile might still be an issue, but Mario Kart could very well be the game to crack the market fully for them. The shipment forecasts will most likely be close or exceeded. Then they also have a very strong position moving forward with lots of options to expand the Switch's market reach even beyond what it currently has. I'm bullish on the future of their stock and think it is seriously undervalued by the market right now.

 

[evilmonkey]

Channel stuffing isn't even a real thing. You can only ship what retailers are willing to buy from you. There's really not much more to it than that.

 

[Simba1]

37M on 25 Months

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37.8m more accurate.

 

[Pokémon]

Channel stuffing isn't even a real thing. You can only ship what retailers are willing to buy from you. There's really not much more to it than that.

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Yeah but "channel stuffing" sounds more negative so gotta go with that.

 

[Pablo Mesa]

Channel stuffing isn't even a real thing

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It is a real thing,
1) it bites you back badly on the long run
2) its can be ground for lawsuit for manipulation and deception to influence price of stocks
3) is more common/ mostly limited to big companies forcing good to sub divisions/ franchises

 

[Andri]

It sold more than most games could ever wish to sell with almost six million sold units.
It is a 2D Mario Platformer.
It was known to general public as much as any video game.

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Dont forget that it essentially sold 5 million units twice, once the normal one, and once with luigi.
This one might top 10m if Switch SW sales continue to bossmode.

 

[evilmonkey]

It is a real thing,
1) it bites you back badly on the long run
2) its can be ground for lawsuit for manipulation and deception to influence price of stocks
3) is more common/ mostly limited to big companies forcing good to sub divisions/ franchises

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That's slightly different then and not what I'm getting from these posts. I don't think NCL or any of its subsidiaries have enough clout to force retailers to accept a bigger shipment than they think they can sell without wasting shelf space. That's something only the likes of Apple can pull off.

 

[Mameshiba]

My average share price is something like $22, I bought mainly back in the Wii U days. I'm not worried about losing money, I'm worried that the long term share price will not reflect the actual long term gains the company is making. And that worry is fueled by the huge drop in price that happened over this calendar year, which is mainly attributed to their FY target and not the general market being down.

Basically my concern is, if the share prices drop this heavily over a year because of essentially nothing important (FY hardware goal) why should I trust that the price will increase over time due to their solid long term position?

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No need to worry, long term the share price always reflects the market position the company is in. Atleast it did so since the beginning of the stock market, don't see why that would suddenly change.

 

[Skittzo]

Because you should be looking at their net profit after taxes if you're looking at anything long term on top of whether or not the company has a product line that can continue to drive said profit.

Hardware targets come and go like farts in the wind.

When you should be worried about a hardware target is when its trending negatively as in the platform is objectively performing poorly. Selling even 18 million in the second year of a console cycle (full year) is more than the PS4 or PS2 ever managed. That is a spectacular number on its own, Nintendo for whatever reason setting an extremely high forecast doesn't change that anyone who does any research can see Switch sales are very, very healthy and historically stack up very nicely compared to most any system in the business. That's more important.

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You're still not getting my point.

Yes, I know that net profit is far more important. But Nintendo has beaten their profit expectations twice this FY and the stock is still down something like ~40-45% from March. My point is, that "fart in the wind" which I know is meaningless in the long run is (seemingly) what's mainly driving this major drop in share price.

If a fart in the wind can do that in a year where profit/revenue targets are consistently being beaten, then why should I be confident that the stock price will reflect their long term profit gains in the future?

No need to worry, long term the share price always reflects the market position the company is in. Atleast it did so since the beginning of the stock market, don't see why that would suddenly change.

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If it's always done that without fail forever and ever then you're right. I have nothing to worry about.

But I'm pretty sure the stock market is not an ideal system like that.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

Remember when people were saying WiiU numbers were the ceiling for Nintendo consoles, because it was all the die hard fans that remain ?
Ho, and the graph with wii being the outlier but showing a clear downward trend ?

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The same dumb argument was used when the Wii released. "It'll still to the 22 million Nintendo fans who bought the GameCube and then it'll stop".

I really can't understand how some people think, or if they even do.

 

[Puroresu_kid]

The same dumb argument was used when the Wii released. "It'll still to the 22 million Nintendo fans who bought the GameCube and then it'll stop".

I really can't understand how some people think, or if they even do.

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The worst thing is that some seemed to think the wii u was purchased by all of the Nintendo hardcore. There was many a Nintendo fan who wanted nothing to do with with the wii u.

 

[julian]

My average share price is something like $22, I bought mainly back in the Wii U days. I'm not worried about losing money, I'm worried that the long term share price will not reflect the actual long term gains the company is making. And that worry is fueled by the huge drop in price that happened over this calendar year, which is mainly attributed to their FY target and not the general market being down.

Basically my concern is, if the share prices drop this heavily over a year because of essentially nothing important (FY hardware goal) why should I trust that the price will increase over time due to their solid long term position?

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You sound like me. I started in when it was around $14 and have bought and sold a lot since. I wouldn't worry too much about the recent drops. People are simply idiots when it comes to Nintendo stock. It's always been unnecessarily volatile for how stable a company they are and analysts seem incapable of providing even basic analysis of their stock. Seriously, why the fuck would the stock price going down mean they will have trouble hitting their target? They know that's not how the market works, yet that's literally what that Nakamura tweet says.

The important thing is their base line seems to be much higher than it was a couple years ago. It's unrealistic for it to be priced below $22 at this point and we haven't even seen the fruits of their diversification in regards to movies or theme parks. If those aren't failures, expect the new normal price to grow.

This is the stock that shot up when Pokémon Go exploded despite them not seeing most of that money. Or when it shot up cause China said they might open their market to consoles despite Nintendo clearly saying they were taking their time getting into that market and they didn't expect their strategy to change. It's a bizarre performing stock for how stable they actually operate.

 

[Skittzo]

You sound like me. I started in when it was around $14 and have bought and sold a lot since. I wouldn't worry too much about the recent drops. People are simply idiots when it comes to Nintendo stock. It's always been unnecessarily volatile for how stable a company they are and analysts seem incapable of providing even basic analysis of their stock. Seriously, why the fuck would the stock price going down mean they will have trouble hitting their target? They know that's not how the market works, yet that's literally what that Nakamura tweet says.

The important thing is their base line seems to be much higher than it was a couple years ago. It's unrealistic for it to be priced below $22 at this point and we haven't even seen the fruits of their diversification in regards to movies or theme parks. If those aren't failures, expect the new normal price to grow.

This is the stock that shot up when Pokémon Go exploded despite them not seeing most of that money. Or when it shot up cause China said they might open their market to consoles despite Nintendo clearly saying they were taking their time getting into that market and they didn't expect their strategy to change. It's a bizarre performing stock for how stable they actually operate.

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Yeah it's an utterly baffling stock. Nothing but fantastic news for Nintendo over the past few days and it's once again 3% down today.

I'm not that worried long term but it's still very concerning and confusing that this stock moves like it does.

 

[julian]

Yeah it's an utterly baffling stock. Nothing but fantastic news for Nintendo over the past few days and it's once again 3% down today.

I'm not that worried long term but it's still very concerning and confusing that this stock moves like it does.

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That's what makes it a great stock to follow. If you actually know and understand the company (and its relation to the industry), you can do well buying and selling it since the price is so strangely volatile. Unfortunately, I just don't have the bandwidth to do that anymore, but I certainly had a good run and I'm not selling what I've got anytime soon.

 

[UltraMagnus]

You're still not getting my point.

Yes, I know that net profit is far more important. But Nintendo has beaten their profit expectations twice this FY and the stock is still down something like ~40-45% from March. My point is, that "fart in the wind" which I know is meaningless in the long run is (seemingly) what's mainly driving this major drop in share price.

If a fart in the wind can do that in a year where profit/revenue targets are consistently being beaten, then why should I be confident that the stock price will reflect their long term profit gains in the future?



If it's always done that without fail forever and ever then you're right. I have nothing to worry about.

But I'm pretty sure the stock market is not an ideal system like that.

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If profit expectations are consistently being beaten, it won't go unnoticed over a medium term of time (not even long term). There are a million people that work for investment firms and are paid a lot of money to weed out which companies make good money, that's why I'm saying don't worry about it.

If you are company that makes a lot of money, has little to no debt, you're not going to fly under the radar over the long haul, the investment simply doesn't work that way. That will get noticed by someone, and then someone else will go "hey what does this guy know that I don't" and so on and so forth.

 

[Cipherr]

How much have they shipped in relation to this goal so far? Like prior to November NPD etc.

 

[Entryhazard]

Chirstmas is here and the target seems closer than expected

 

[Slam Tilt]

Chirstmas is here and the target seems closer than expected

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[NintendoMariah]

someones back peddling

 

[Limabean01]

someones back peddling

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Lol. Watch people who held similar expectations to him pretend that no one could have anticipated such a strong Q3, when everyone sane knew this would happen once we had the triple threat of SMP-PLG-smash

 

[Dekuman]

Too bad change vote is still possible. 20m is now the most popular option. Wasn't that way a few months ago.

 

[Maxina]

Don't forget the people stating a Smash "port" wouldn't be a system seller.

 

[Slam Tilt]

Quoting myself:

Not me -- I've been on "surpasses 20 million easily" since Day One, and I don't see any reason to change it.

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Anyone who knows how Nintendo does estimates could have told you this back at the beginning of the FY. Nintendo does not do way-out forecasts for no reason...

 

[foxuzamaki]

Too bad change vote is still possible. 20m is now the most popular option. Wasn't that way a few months ago.

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I just noticed that, haha

 

[ASaiyan]

You sound like me. I started in when it was around $14 and have bought and sold a lot since. I wouldn't worry too much about the recent drops. People are simply idiots when it comes to Nintendo stock. It's always been unnecessarily volatile for how stable a company they are and analysts seem incapable of providing even basic analysis of their stock. Seriously, why the fuck would the stock price going down mean they will have trouble hitting their target? They know that's not how the market works, yet that's literally what that Nakamura tweet says.

The important thing is their base line seems to be much higher than it was a couple years ago. It's unrealistic for it to be priced below $22 at this point and we haven't even seen the fruits of their diversification in regards to movies or theme parks. If those aren't failures, expect the new normal price to grow.

This is the stock that shot up when Pokémon Go exploded despite them not seeing most of that money. Or when it shot up cause China said they might open their market to consoles despite Nintendo clearly saying they were taking their time getting into that market and they didn't expect their strategy to change. It's a bizarre performing stock for how stable they actually operate.

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Video game stocks in general seem to be bizarrely volatile, and are apparently held by investors who seem to know shockingly little about how the business works, and where their expectations should be. See also: Capcom stock plummeting on the announcement that Monster Hunter World sold better than their estimates, because investors were apparently expecting it to do so much better that they sold 3 copies to every living thing on Earth, and possibly a few on Mars as well. I say stay away from shares in this industry altogether, lol.

 

[Limabean01]

I predicted 19-21 million... which was foreseeable the second we knew the Q3 lineup.

 

[Datajoy]

So if 10m sold in Q3 they will still need 5m in Q4 to reach their goal right?

 

[Limabean01]

So if 10m sold in Q3 they will still need 5m in Q4 to reach their goal right?

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If they sold exactly 10 million, they'd still need 4.93 in Q4.

Considering it's actually more likely they sell above 10.5 million - 11 million, they'll only have to ship around 4.3 million in Q4, Which is only around 1.3 above what they did last year (with only Bayonetta 2 and late Kirby). Even if they only actually sell 4 million (easily doable), I can see them slightly over shipping just so people don't freak out when it's 19.7 million or something.

 

[Datajoy]

If they sold exactly 10 million, they'd still need 4.93 in Q4.

Considering it's actually more likely they sell above 10.5 million - 11 million, they'll only have to ship around 4.3 million in Q4, Which is only around 1.3 above what they did last year (with only Bayonetta 2 and late Kirby). Even if they only actually sell 4 million (easily doable), I can see them slightly over shipping just so people don't freak out when it's 19.7 million or something.

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I kinda hope it ends up at 19.9 million just to see the takes.

 

[srtrestre]

Too bad change vote is still possible. 20m is now the most popular option. Wasn't that way a few months ago.

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Whatever happens, this thread will be fun to revisit for sure.

 

[Dekuman]

 

[massoluk]

Vindicated 😉

 

[newmoneytrash]

Don't forget the people stating a Smash "port" wouldn't be a system seller.

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Also that no one would care about the spin-off Pokemon game and it wouldn't sell

 

[Sacul64]

nothing is gonna outsell the PS2, it has many factors that can not be replicated (or no one sane will like to replicate), including)

A high failure rate that drove people to buy newer ones
Being the cheapest new media (DVD) player on the market
Overstaying cause the successor was so bad no one wanted to move on to it so getting one of (if not the) longest consoles life spam

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Don't forget that PSP and Wii existing also caused the PS2 to keep getting games that it probably would not of.

 

[Deleted member 37917]

I'm still team 18 millions, plus or minus 1 million. A solid number but 5-15% below expectations.

 

[CaviarMeths]

Still not changing my vote. I've been saying all along that 18-19m is a realistic result. With current news, 19-20m is probably more likely, but I still think it falls short. Even with a monstrous 11m Q3, it would still need similarly huge growth YoY in Q4. If Q3 is indeed "only" 10m, then the 20m goal is dead in the water. Switch isn't shipping 5m in Q4.

someones back peddling

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I don't think he's backpedaling? He's a journalist, not an analyst. Are you confusing him with Yuji Nakamura?

 

[Pablo Mesa]

Switch isn't shipping 5m in Q4.

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why not? last year they did 3M and that was only on the back of Mario O all the way from October. This year we already had NSMB already beating WiiU at launch and Yoshi game at teh end of the March.

 

[hank_tree]

why not? last year they did 3M and that was only on the back of Mario O all the way from October. This year we already had NSMB already beating WiiU at launch and Yoshi game at teh end of the March.

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Ain't no one buying a Switch for Yoshi.

 

[Buzzard]

Alwasy was on the 20+ train.

The funny thing is that it was quite obvious.

 

[requiem]

Team 19 mil. I think something in Feb is needed to push them over the line.

 

[New Donker]

Ain't no one buying a Switch for Yoshi.

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Yoshi comes out after the "20m deadline" anyway.

Also. I'm still on team 20m

 

[Deleted member 37917]

There are only a handful of games that can move hardware on their own and Yoshi is probably not one of them. But having a constant stream of quality games helps raising the baseline. That was missing for the first 10 months of 2018 and it showed on the sales, that's why I still believe they'll fall short of their prediction.

 

[jackal27]

Was always on team 20 mil and I remain so.

What's driving people to pick one up is the combined library, not one gigantic new release. You can't argue that what is widely considered to be the best Mario, the best Zelda, the best Mario Kart, and the best Smash Bros hasn't been convincing people. I'm seeing people who haven't played a Nintendo game in 20 years pick up a Switch. They've tapped into something.

 

[daybreak]

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This is exactly what I've been saying for months. I fully expect to learn to learn that Nintendo sold upwards of 11m units in Q4 2018.

The 20m prediction was never unrealistic, every other supporting factor backs up that sales estimate.

 

[Simba1]

Expecting around 11m in Q3 and around 4m in Q4.

 

[Piston]

Team 19 mil. I think something in Feb is needed to push them over the line.

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One game doesn't push one million in hardware immediately unless it is in the God of War, Spiderman, or Super Smash Bros territory of releases. The idea that releasing a Metroid Prime Trilogy, Labo Kit 04, Daemon x Machina, or hell even Fire Emblem in February would tip the scales that much in 1-2 months is ridiculous.

What isn't ridiculous is saying that the momentum coming off a strong holiday with Smash and Pokemon and general good word of mouth for the system will cause it to sell more than it did in the previous FY Q4.

 

[New Donker]

One game doesn't push one million in hardware immediately unless it is in the God of War, Spiderman, or Super Smash Bros territory of releases. The idea that releasing a Metroid Prime Trilogy, Labo Kit 04, Daemon x Machina, or hell even Fire Emblem in February would tip the scales that much in 1-2 months is ridiculous.

What isn't ridiculous is saying that the momentum coming off a strong holiday with Smash and Pokemon and general good word of mouth for the system will cause it to sell more than it did in the previous FY Q4.

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This is a good post. If people are buying a Switch in February, its to play everything that want to play. Not a random published nintendo game that finally pushed them over the edge. That only happens for select huge releases.

 

[Skittzo]

Yoshi comes out after the "20m deadline" anyway.

Also. I'm still on team 20m

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No it doesn't, it comes out March 29th, 2 days before the end of the FY.