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donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
ITT, predict for the NPD June 2020 retail period (May 31-July 4, 2020) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but SalesEra followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
Trust me said:
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
ethomaz said:
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, July 14th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: May 31-July 4, 2020 (5 weeks, May was 4 weeks)
NPD Results Release: Thursday, July 16 @ 4 p.m. EDT (PR+thread posted Friday morning)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 100K      [XB1] 100 thousand
[XB1] 100,000   [XB1] 100.000
[XB1] 100000    [XB1] - 100000


Potential hardware impacting events in June:
U.S. declares National Emergency for COVID-19 (most states implemented 'stay-at-home' orders over the month) - March 13 (35 days in period)
Some states partially reopen starting in May - 35 days in period

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

May's results
Estimates thanks to Dolorean

NSW: 530K
PS4: 156K
XBO: 151K

May 2019 NPD thread
June 2019 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 

julian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,878
[NSW] 650k
[PS4] 280k
[XB1] 190k

🤷‍♂️
 
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slavesnyder

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,127
SlaveSnyder Media Corp.
[NSW] 670K
[PS4] 300K
[XB1] 150K

the last of us II should give PS4 a good push. some late first purchases and a lot of people buying a second box because the first caught fire or just took off and flew out of the window.
 

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,929
[NSW] 562K
[PS4] 322K
[XB1] 158K

Hey, it's that time of the month again! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of May and June. This is when it is beneficial to compare weekly averages and not just simple month to month, because June is a 5 week month while May is only 4. I've also gathered software sales and potential hardware deals to give a bigger scope of how and why June performs better than May.

Code:
2013

Xbox 360 May: 114K / 4 = 28,500
Xbox 360 June: 140K / 5 = 28,000

Weekly average -2%

PS3 May: 85K / 4 = 21,250
PS3 June: 109K / 5 = 21,800

Weekly average +3%

Notable Releases in June

Xbox 360
Minecraft [5 weeks] [>350k]

PS3
The Last of Us [4 weeks] [985K]

Code:
2014

Xbox One May: 77K / 4 = 19,250
Xbox One June: 197K / 5 = 39,400

Weekly average +105%

PS4 May: 197K / 4 = 49,250
PS4 June: 269K / 5 = 53,800

Weekly average +9%

Xbox 360 May: 57K / 4 = 14,250
Xbox 360 June: 62K / 5 = 12,400

Weekly average -13%

PS3 May: 36K / 4 = 9,000
PS3 June: 42K / 5 = 8,400

Weekly average -7%

Notable Releases in June

Xbox One
Kinectless SKU $399 [4 weeks] [108k]

EA Sports UFC [3 weeks] [118K]

PS4
EA Sports UFC [3 weeks] [160K]

Code:
2015

Xbox One May: 140K / 4 = 35,000
Xbox One June: 296K / 5 = 59,200

Weekly average +69%

PS4 May: 153K / 4 = 38,250
PS4 June: 364K / 5 = 72,800

Weekly average +90%

Notable Releases in June

Xbox One
Halo: The Master Chief Collection 1TB bundle $399 [3 weeks] (Debut week (week 3 of June) drove sales +79% from week 2)
Best Buy Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $175 towards Xbox One [1 week]

Batman Arkham Knight [2 weeks]
1 free game with an Xbox One purchase [Batman launch week]

PS4
Best Buy Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $175 towards PS4 [1 week]

Batman: Arkham Knight 500GB Limited Bundle $449 [2 weeks] [121K]
Batman: Arkham Knight 500GB Bundle $399 [2 weeks]

Batman Arkham Knight [2 weeks]

Code:
2016

Xbox One May: 107K / 4 = 26,750
Xbox One June: 212K / 5 = 42,400

Weekly average +59%

PS4 May: 207K / 4 = 51,750
PS4 June: 234K / 5 = 46,800

Weekly average -10%

Notable Releases in June

Xbox One
500GB bundles $299 (May 31 - June 13) [2 weeks]
1TB bundles $369 (May 31 - June 13) [2 weeks]
500GB and Kinect bundles $279 (June 14 - July 10 - 19 days in June NPD) [3 weeks]
1TB bundles $299 (June 14 - July 10 - 19 days in June NPD) [3 weeks]
Elite bundle $349 (June 14 - July 10 - 19 days in June NPD) [3 weeks]

Code:
2017

Xbox One May: 109K / 4 = 27,250
Xbox One June: 153K / 5 = 30,600

Weekly average +12%

PS4 May: 187K / 4 = 46,750
PS4 June: 381K / 5 = 76,200

Weekly average +63%

Notable Events in June

Xbox One
Xbox One X $499 announced for November 7

$50 price drop on select bundles / multiple $249 bundles | June 11 - June 17 (7 days)

PS4
Gold 1TB PS4 $249 June 9 - June 17 (9 days) Price raise to $299 June 18

Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy [1 week]

Code:
2018

Switch May: 165K / 4 = 41,250
Switch June: 323K / 5 = 64,600

Weekly average +57%

Xbox One May: 14K5 / 4 = 36,250
Xbox One June: 256K / 5 = 51,200

Weekly average +41%

PS4 May: 225K / 4 = 56,250
PS4 June: 377K / 5 = 75,400

Weekly average +34%

Notable Events in June

Switch
Gamestop Deal - Trade in XB1S or PS4 and get $250 towards Switch Offer valid 6/12/18 - 6/17/18

Fortnite Battle Royal [4 weeks]
Mario Tennis Aces [3 weeks]
Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy [2 weeks]

Xbox One
Xbox One S 500GB $199 (June 10th - 30th) [3 weeks]
Xbox One S 1TB $249 / Xbox One X 1TB $449 (June 10th - 23rd) [2 weeks]
PUBG with every Xbox One X (June 24 - July 7) [2 weeks]
PUBG Xbox One X 1TB Bundle $499 [1 week]

GameStop Deal - Xbox One 1TB (S and X) with $50 gift card (July 2 - July 9 / 6 days in June NPD)

Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy [2 weeks]
The Crew 2 [2 weeks]

PS4
PS4 1TB Days of Play Blue Limited Edition $299 [5 weeks]
PS4 Pro $349 (June 8th - 18th)

The Crew 2 [2 weeks]

Code:
2019

Switch May: 216K / 4 = 54,000
Switch June: 329K / 5 = 65,800

Weekly average +22%

Xbox One May: 86K / 4 = 21,500
Xbox One June: 161K / 5 = 32,200

Weekly average +50%

PS4 May: 137K / 4 = 34,250
PS4 June: 222K / 5 = 44,400

Weekly average +30%

Notable Events in June

Switch

Crash Team Racing - Nitro Fueled [3 weeks]
Super Mario Maker 2 [2 weeks]

Xbox One
Xbox One X $449 / Xbox One S $249 / Xbox One SAD $199 [June 7 - 23]

Special Purple Xbox One S Fortnite 1TB Bundle $299 ($249 during price cut) [5 weeks]

Fallout 76 Xbox One X Bundle price increased to $499 July 1st [1 week]

Crash Team Racing - Nitro Fueled [3 weeks]

PS4
PS4 1TB Days of Play Steel Black Limited Edition $299 [5 weeks]
PS4 Pro $349 [June 7 - 17]

Crash Team Racing - Nitro Fueled [3 weeks]

Code:
2020 May Weekly Average

Switch: 529K / 4 = 132,250
PS4: 156K / 4 = 39,000
Xbox One: 151K / 4 = 37,750

Notable Events in June

COVID-19

States reopening

Switch
Continued sellouts

Xbox One
Xbox One X Cyberpunk 2077 Limited Bundle $299 [5 weeks] [45K Worldwide, should be ~25-30K in US]

Xbox One X $299 / Xbox One S All-Digital Edition $199 [June 5 - While Supplies Last]

Xbox One X and Xbox One S All-Digital Edition seemingly discontinued/sold out [Late June]

PS4
PS4 Pro The Last of Us Part 2 Limited Bundle $399 [3 weeks]

The Last of Us Part 2 [3 weeks]

Notes
Not much different for Month 3 of Pandemic in the USA. Getting bored of the virus has caused the US to spike to new heights which will most likely lead to July and August to return to a more locked down state. June is that weird mid point where things were starting to look alright with states reopening, which could have an impact on sales.

Xbox
The Xbox One has had massive hardware impacting events every June, with the Kinectless SKU in 2014, 1TB model in 2015, a full month of price drops in 2016, one week price drop in 2017 (which was weakened by the wait for the One X like all of 2017), and the lowest price cuts to the One S and first price cut for the One X in 2018. 2019 had a Purple Fortnite bundle and price cuts on all models.

2020 is a bit of a mystery. Xbox has signaled the Cyberpunk bundle will be the last One X bundle, and multiple retailer listings, reports, and even Microsoft's own store show the Xbox One X and Xbox One S All-Digital Edition are sold out.

We are anticipating Xbox to replace both those models with Xbox Series X and currently rumored Xbox Lockhart, and thanks to the pandemic boosting sell through far beyond expectations, Xbox no longer producing and shipping those two current models could very well mean that as of late June, only the Xbox One S is being sold.

The weekly average rise is +56% with the smallest rise being +12% (2017) and the biggest being +105% (2014).

PlayStation
The PS4 did not have the type of deals in June like XB1 until 2017 with the start of Days of Play. June 2014 was normal coming off the Watch Dogs launch in late May while having plenty of supply. June 2015 had the very successful Batman bundles towards the end of the month, June 2016 had nothing and was coming off of the Uncharted 4 launch in May causing the weekly average to fall. 2017 introduced a 1TB Gold slim at a discounted $249 for a limited time (Normal price was $299), 2018 had another Days of Play promotion and introduced a $299 Blue 1TB slim along with a price cut for the PS4 Pro to $349 for 10 days. 2019 was similar to 2018 which didn't boost sales as much.

For 2020, PS5 will be released in the holiday season. Combined with the current pandemic boosting sell through, Sony has opted to not have hardware deals during Days of Play. What did happen in June was the launch of The Last of Us Part 2, Sony biggest worldwide launch ever at 4M sold through in 3 days. Its launch should be comparable to Spider-Man and God of War in the US and unlike Xbox, PS4 shows no signs of being sold out during June.

The weekly average rise is +36% with the only drop being -9% (2016) and the biggest rise being +90% (2015). Remove 2016 and the average rise is +45%

Nintendo
Switch is the new Wii/DS right now. It'll sell through every unit. The only insight would be that as production improves, more regions outside of US and Europe would get more stock, which could mean shipments to US decrease slightly as global shipments shift. I'd still think the US is getting over 100K minimum per week.

Recap
June is a better month than May in both absolute number and weekly average. Sales, promotions, and large game releases will of course improve that.

The biggest June ever recorded between the 7th gen was the Wii with 667K back in 2008. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 507k back in 2011.

The biggest June ever recorded in the 8th gen is the PS4 with 381K in 2017. Second biggest? PS4 again with 377K in 2018.
 
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Peek-a-boo!

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
4,225
Woodbridge
[NSW] 595K
[PS4] 320K
[XB1] 160K

Slight uptick in PlayStation 4 due to 'The Last of Us Part II', Switch selling as well as usual and the Xbox One hasn't got anything to shout about in June other than being on sale for the umpteenth month in a row.
 

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,929
There was a TLOU2 Pro bundle and I'm just now aware of it lol

How'd I miss that one

Now I'm a bit more confident on high PS4 sales.
 
OP
OP

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
Notes
Not much different for Month 3 of Pandemic in the USA. Getting bored of the virus has caused the US to spike to new heights which will most likely lead to July and August to return to a more locked down state. June is that weird mid point where things were starting to look alright with states reopening, which could have an impact on sales.
Wondering if the partial reopening could lead to June being one of the lower months of the April-August period instead of typically the highest one. No school letting out/start of Summer vacation. No stimulus check to provide a tax return-like bump. Just regular June stuff that may not be enough to make it head and shoulders above the rest like in a normal mid-year doldrum.
 

Andromeda

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,864
...

For 2020, PS5 will be released in the holiday season. Combined with the current pandemic boosting sell through, Sony has opted to not have hardware deals during Days of Play. What did happen in June was the launch of The Last of Us Part 2, Sony biggest worldwide launch ever at 4M sold through in 3 days. Its launch should be comparable to Spider-Man and God of War in the US and unlike Xbox, PS4 shows no signs of being sold out during June.

...
Are you sure about that? PS4 was sold out online in all big retailers (gamespot, amazon and Walmart) during most of the month.
 

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,929
Wondering if the partial reopening could lead to June being one of the lower months of the April-August period instead of typically the highest one. No school letting out/start of Summer vacation. No stimulus check to provide a tax return-like bump. Just regular June stuff that may not be enough to make it head and shoulders above the rest like in a normal mid-year doldrum.
Given the sellouts for all 3 consoles, I think it'll depend on how much extra stock they could have sent in June and when the next stimulus check happens.

This is shaping up to be a chaotic year.
Are you sure about that? PS4 was sold out online in all big retailers (gamespot, amazon and Walmart) during most of the month.
From what I saw, it isn't to the degree of, say Xbox, which has been selling out of One X and SAD with seemingly no plans to restock them. I'm expecting PS4 to be regularly restocked for a little bit longer.

Switch and PS4 are going to keep selling and getting meaningful restocks.
Most of Xbox looks to be done selling period and just letting inventory clear.

That was my use of sold out.
 

slavesnyder

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,127
SlaveSnyder Media Corp.
Given the sellouts for all 3 consoles, I think it'll depend on how much extra stock they could have sent in June and when the next stimulus check happens.

This is shaping up to be a chaotic year.

From what I saw, it isn't to the degree of, say Xbox, which has been selling out of One X and SAD with seemingly no plans to restock them. I'm expecting PS4 to be regularly restocked for a little bit longer.

Switch and PS4 are going to keep selling and getting meaningful restocks.
Most of Xbox looks to be done selling period and just letting inventory clear.

That was my use of sold out.
sony always tries to keep in touch with the old console , showing at least some support for the slowly degenerating corpse.
microsoft traditionally signs the divorce papers as fast as possible and hits the road to vegas with the new flame.
 

Xevross

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,049
[NSW] 509K
[PS4] 279K
[XB1] 177K

Annoyed at myself for missing last month! Lets see if I can make amends here, although it feels like this is just a complete guessing game of how much stock each console had, so its really hard to make any estimation. I think PS4 gets a bump from TLOU2 but weekly average for the other two should drop from May.
 
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Peek-a-boo!

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
4,225
Woodbridge
sony always tries to keep in touch with the old console, showing at least some support for the slowly degenerating corpse.
microsoft traditionally signs the divorce papers as fast as possible and hits the road to Vegas with the new flame.

How do you keep coming up with consistently good material like this?

Here's a well deserved star ... ⭐️

[NSW] 750K
[PS4] 330K
[XB1] 240K

Do we now require to pay trademark royalties every single time we reply to you?
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
Benji hints/anecdotes from his live chat:

-Stock issues continued in June for all three consoles
-"Loose prediction" - good month for NSW but down from March-May; PS4 up YoY; maybe growth for XBO