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Kotaku: Microsoft Is Still Planning A Cheaper, Disc-Less Next-Gen Xbox

Betelgeuse

Betelgeuse

Member
Nov 2, 2017
2,941
Angst said:
Do you guys spend all day at your keyboard waiting for gotcha moments?
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Sadly that's all it's about for a good percentage of the posters in here. It's particularly notable where anyone expresses any concern about the possibility this might have an adverse effect on game development. It's just as poisonous as any other type of actionable shit-posting, but nonetheless gets a free pass.
 
AegonSnake

AegonSnake

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,566
Gamechanger87 said:
Brad Sams out there saying Lockhart is actually targeting 1080p.


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Yep. 1440p on a 4 tflops console is a pipe dream. i'd argue so is 1080p. they are saying that a 12 tflops GPU will do native 4k. Thats a 4x pixel increase from 1080p. roughly 2x increase from 1440p. How can a GPU 1/3 as powerful run a game at half the resolution and same settings?

we have already seen several x1x games top out at 1440p. thats for current gen games. next gen games will look far better. if the 4 tflops gpu is the same as the 6 tflops scorpio gpu then you are not going to get very many 1080p games running next gen graphics.

A good example would be the 1.3 tflops (originally 1.2) x1 gpu vs the 0.4 tflops Switch GPU when docked. 3x power difference and even when docked it has several games that run under 720p at settings so low you can barely see any details.

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While 1080p next gen games might not look this bad, they will have to do a whole lot more than just render the game at 1080p. entire effects will be missing if they design the game on a 12 tflops console first.
 
pswii60

pswii60

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,681
The Milky Way
chubigans said:
As a developer I'll tell you why I absolutely hate the idea of Lockhart.

When you go into the next generation of any console, it is always a premium buy-in. Some are ready day one to pay whatever price for next gen, whether that's $399 or $599.

Let's talk about $599. The PS3 did not launch at $599. It launched at $499, with a SKU that was the same base hardware but lesser hard drive space, no extra media slots, and a few other extras that didn't make the cut. Growth of the PS3 didn't start happening until a new $499 SKU was introduced that had more limited backwards compatibility and features.

Think about that for a minute: why would sales growth occur at $499 when the system launched at $499 to begin with? Because the new $499 system wasn't marketed as an "inferior" step down from the $599 version. It was the new PS3 SKU going forward. And because of that, people perceived the price at $499. Then we had the $399 PS3, and so on.

Microsoft wants it all, day one. They want the premium super hardware buyers. They want the soccer moms. They want the kids who only get one big gift per year. They want the busy traveler that can only game in the cloud. They want the subscription junkie that only plays through Game Pass. They think they can get there with two SKUs: one super premium console that's maybe $499 and one lesser console for $399. The market won't see the $399 console because again, the next gen buy-in at launch is ALWAYS PREMIUM. The perception will be the high end SKU is the true next gen console, and it won't be until that one declines in price that you'll see a bigger audience coming into the Xbox ecosystem.

The ramifications for a lesser SKU are huge, just like the Xbox Core/Arcade. You're already seeing that now with Xbox One X/S- some recent games like the Outer Worlds look worse on XB1X than PS4 Pro because they're upscaled ports of XB1S. You will see a LOT of that if there are two SKUs on the market, guaranteed. The premium Xbox will be a worse console because of the existence of Lockhart. Meanwhile, the PS5 has nothing other than itself to scale for, and that's huge.

But wait you say, Apple does this with the iPhone Pro and the standard colorful iPhones! You cannot bring the phone market into the console one. The comparison makes no sense. Eventually, at some point, you will need a new phone. You need it to basically live in this day and age. Sony and MS already have an uphill battle marketing and selling next gen because of the PS4 Pro and XB1X. It will be more difficult showing off amazing looking games because we're already playing amazing looking games. They have to get there with features, with quality of life features, with things that will cause this next gen to be a much slower start than I think this gen was. When your main selling point is less features at a lower price with Lockhart, you have a severe problem.

I hope they don't do this. This feels like marketing and executives meddling in the video game space. It feels aimless and stupid.
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Personally I don't think Lockhart will be launching day one. Hence why MS is only talking about one console in 2020. It'll come later to avoid confused messaging, much like Switch Lite.

You'll need a different example to The Outer Worlds given that it recently got a patch to fix the foliage and bring it in line with the Pro.

Also, probably unlike Lockhart/Anaconda, S and X do not share the same memory architecture thanks to the S' reliance on ESRAM. This obviously does make things a little trickier when developing for both consoles as that needs to be taken in to consideration. Scarlett's consoles will have been developed in tandem from the ground up for easy scalability between the two.
 

GaussianMultivariate

Banned
Jul 26, 2018
2,464
What is it that they sometimes mention "Project Scarlett", "Anaconda" (higher spec model) and "Lockhart" (cheap model). I thought Scarlett was the pro model and Lockhart was the cheap one, but now in OP we have the three codenames? Which is which?
 

Deleted member 17207

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,208
I always thought their plan was to do a sort of client side console and a server side console. You spend more to get all the hardware in your room, or a lot less to basically play on a device that's running Xcloud and nothing else.

This seems weird as hell though.
 
Bitch Pudding

Bitch Pudding

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,202
Regarding the positioning of Lockhart: if every game is supposed to run on any Xbox One in the foreseeable future and Lockhart is targeting cost sensitive customers who don't need an optical disc system nor 4K graphics; what exactly prevents them buying a $99 SAD instead of a $300 (?) Lockhart?
 
SharpX68K

SharpX68K

Member
Nov 10, 2017
10,518
Chicagoland
DocH1X1 said:
I agree but if cpu and everything else is identical but gpu and it lines up with ps4 pro, something devs have extensive experience with. Would that not alleviate part of the issue?

Especially if dev's continue to support the pro.
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The PS4 Pro is a midgen upgrade that came out 3 years after PS4
The Xbox One X is also a midgen upgrade, that came out 4 years after the OG Xbox One

The Zen 2 CPU being the same between Anaconda and Lockhart is only 1 thing (and rumor is that Lockhart CPU is clocked lower)
Lockhart would have a much weaker GPU, less memory bandwidth and less RAM than Anaconda. Both would be launching together, or very close to each other.

The main argument for everything being OKAY is that Anaconda would target 4K while Lockhart would target 1440p and/or 1080p. But not everything else visually scales with resolution, and that with traditional rasterized graphics, nevermind ray tracing.

Overall it's more complicated than resolution differences, and developers reportedly hate Lockhart, making everything more complicated. In the end, the games will suffer due to having to be less ambitious. PS5 won't have that problem directly, however, it could even effect PS5 as well, the next generation as a whole, outside of Sony's 1st party studios who will only target PS5 specs.
 
Gamer17

Gamer17

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
9,399
Bitch Pudding said:
Regarding the positioning of Lockhart: if every game is supposed to run on any Xbox One in the foreseeable future and Lockhart is targeting cost sensitive customers who don't need an optical disc system nor 4K graphics; what exactly prevents them buying a $99 SAD instead of a $300 (?) Lockhart?
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Great question especially since for the first 3 years there won't be many exclusives for next gen
 
DSP

DSP

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,120
Bitch Pudding said:
Regarding the positioning of Lockhart: if every game is supposed to run on any Xbox One in the foreseeable future and Lockhart is targeting cost sensitive customers who don't need an optical disc system nor 4K graphics; what exactly prevents them buying a $99 SAD instead of a $300 (?) Lockhart?
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The fact that this one plays gta6 and newest cod and one s wont.
 
Keikaku

Keikaku

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,779
DukeBlueBall said:
It'll have the same support as Anaconda.
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But won't have the power to run full ray tracing at any decent resolution. The RTX 2060 is on a whole another level and struggles with any ray tracing.
GaussianMultivariate said:
What is it that they sometimes mention "Project Scarlett", "Anaconda" (higher spec model) and "Lockhart" (cheap model). I thought Scarlett was the pro model and Lockhart was the cheap one, but now in OP we have the three codenames? Which is which?
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Scarlett includes both.
 

Deleted member 45460

User requested account closure
Banned
Jun 27, 2018
1,492
Bitch Pudding said:
Regarding the positioning of Lockhart: if every game is supposed to run on any Xbox One in the foreseeable future and Lockhart is targeting cost sensitive customers who don't need an optical disc system nor 4K graphics; what exactly prevents them buying a $99 SAD instead of a $300 (?) Lockhart?
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With the vastly improved CPU you'll get far better overall performance
 

shark97

Banned
Nov 7, 2017
5,327
BlueManifest said:
And the 4 Tflop console will still exist as the base line you completely missed the point I was making

or you didn't miss it and just ignored it
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I guess. Read my other points.

4TF with modern GPU architecture and Zen CPU=>PS4 Pro and probably X1X.

Think how powerful a modern 4TF console with a Zen2 CPU and SSD is compared to a Nintendo Switch. Should put it in perspective this wont be a toy.

We're already modular in support. Current devs have to support 4 consoles (base/pro), possibly PC and it's unlimited configurations, and possibly Switch. Before next gen which will add more.

A 20TF Xbox 3 (just like all the other conjecture here though, a LONG way from existence, and even more hypothetical than the others) would still be the most powerful console. Is X1X not the most powerful console because it supports the weakest base console? I saw someone mention PS4 pro games running better but I'd reject that point. How many games is that? A very very small minority. And they're trading visuals, too.

I guess the main point "alone PS5" (if it even pans out that way, taking it as fact is way out there) could support exclusives, but they are also rans in sales to COD, A Creed, NBA, Madden, Ubisoft games, Rockstar games, Battlefield, Destiny.

Also, again I'll point to SAD. Doing very well because it's focused on a low price point. Lockhart (IF all this comes to fruition, big if) could do the same thing. In which case if anything Sony will scramble to introduce their own Ps5 light.

One thing I would wonder though is if the lockhart price could be low enough to be enticing. 299 or 399 is not "low" like 149 SAD is. It's not reaching those really casual gamers.

But then again that's a starting point, it could drop a lot as years go by I suppose.

All in all this is right up my alley. I love discussing the business side of video games hardware!
 
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eathdemon

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,690
it all depends on whats weaker. a weaker gpu is scalable, mostly lost in resolution scaling, cpu on the other hand...... seems like the same cpu, but a weaker gpu, I am ok with that.
 
hussien-11

hussien-11

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,315
Jordan
PS3 SKUs are not the same situation at all. Xbox seems like it wants to introduce 2 entry levels into the ecosystem, and the idea - if what we've heard is correct - is to get next gen graphics for people using 1080p screens at an affordable price to undercut the competition.

It seems like an interesting strategy.
 

Deleted member 50658

Banned
Dec 8, 2018
1,911
WhtR88t said:
Yeah- it's much easier for Microsoft to ditch their Xbox One install base than it would be for Sony to leave PS4's behind.

Basically if that happens, then the "cheap" PS4 becomes Sony's problem (to have something that competes with Lockheart in price at the low end) to support while Microsoft has already ditched support for Xbox One.

This would suck for pretty much everyone but Microsoft as it basically hampers next gen by forcing support for an inferior system for next gen but it allows Microsoft a clean cut from the current gen and a lower entry price to "next gen" than Sony can offer with the PS5.

I really hope it doesn't happen or Microsoft has some magic that'll make Lockheart perform as good as a PS5/Anaconda just at lower resolutions and still allow devs to really push things in insane ways.
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You guys believe Sony is considering to put their new exclusives on PS4 or something or what have Sony to to with "ditching" their install base?

Third parties decide if they want to "ditch" the PS4 and move straight to next gen or if they want crossgen games.
 
SilverX

SilverX

Member
Jan 21, 2018
13,029
I feel the title is misleading though being
Kotaku: Microsoft Is Still Planning A Cheaper, Disc-Less Next-Gen Xbox

Nowhere does it mention it will also be WEAKER. Some people may be thinking it'll be a reduced cost version of the real next gen console from the lac of a disc drive, not that it is a very different machine with close to PS4 Pro specs.
 

eathdemon

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,690
SilverX said:
I feel the title is misleading though being
Kotaku: Microsoft Is Still Planning A Cheaper, Disc-Less Next-Gen Xbox

Nowhere does it mention it will also be WEAKER. Some people may be thinking it'll be a reduced cost version of the real next gen console from the lac of a disc drive, not that it is a very different machine with close to PS4 Pro specs.
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expect a disc drive is what $15 or less. just removing the disc drive doesnt save you money.
 
Splader

Splader

Member
Feb 12, 2018
5,063
Betelgeuse said:
Sadly that's all it's about for a good percentage of the posters in here. It's particularly notable where anyone expresses any concern about the possibility this might have an adverse effect on game development. It's just as poisonous as any other type of actionable shit-posting, but nonetheless gets a free pass.
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This goes both ways though. I don't think Lockhart will be as negative of an impact as many here make it out to be. Yet just that thought alone gets people after you.

But at the end of the day, disagreeing with someone or something isn't "shit-posting", it's just that, a disagreement. The poster you quoted said they want MS to see a developers response. If all he wanted to do was bump the post, wouldn't something like "more should see this", or "this should be thread marked" make more sense?

What do the posters here care what MS sees and doesn't see?
 

Deleted member 6730

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
11,526
SilverX said:
I feel the title is misleading though being
Kotaku: Microsoft Is Still Planning A Cheaper, Disc-Less Next-Gen Xbox

Nowhere does it mention it will also be WEAKER. Some people may be thinking it'll be a reduced cost version of the real next gen console from the lac of a disc drive, not that it is a very different machine with close to PS4 Pro specs.
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What do you think they meant by calling it cheaper?
 
Anthony Hopkins

Anthony Hopkins

Banned
Feb 10, 2018
17,534
shark97 said:
I guess. Read my other points.

4TF with modern GPU architecture and Zen CPU=>PS4 Pro and probably X1X.

Think how powerful a modern 4TF console with a Zen2 CPU and SSD is compared to a Nintendo Switch. Should put it in perspective this wont be a toy.

We're already modular in support. Current devs have to support 4 consoles (base/pro), possibly PC and it's unlimited configurations, and possibly Switch. Before next gen which will add more.

A 20TF Xbox 3 (just like all the other conjecture here though, a LONG way from existence, and even more hypothetical than the others) would still be the most powerful console. Is X1X not the most powerful console because it supports the weakest base console? I saw someone mention PS4 pro games running better but I'd reject that point. How many games is that? A very very small minority. And they're trading visuals, too.

I guess the main point "alone PS5" (if it even pans out that way, taking it as fact is way out there) could support exclusives, but they are also rans in sales to COD, A Creed, NBA, Madden, Ubisoft games, Rockstar games, Battlefield, Destiny.

Also, again I'll point to SAD. Doing very well because it's focused on a low price point. Lockhart (IF all this comes to fruition, big if) could do the same thing. In which case if anything Sony will scramble to introduce their own Ps5 light.

One thing I would wonder though is if the lockhart price could be low enough to be enticing. 299 or 399 is not "low" like 149 SAD is. It's not reaching those really casual gamers.

But then again that's a starting point, it could drop a lot as years go by I suppose.

All in all this is right up my alley. I love discussing the business side of video games hardware!
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Excellent post.
 
Minions

Minions

Member
Oct 25, 2017
424
Seems like a weird way to keep the player base fragmented. It is likely a non-issue on streamed games in the future. I think this points to Microsoft expecting streaming to be the main revenue stream going forward.
Unfortunately I think everyone is way early on this. Until ISP's start uncapping or raising data caps, that will restrict the movement to game streaming.
I assume the higher spec xbox will launch, with the lower spec model launching a year-ish later.
 
Windrunner

Windrunner

Sly
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,508
Digital Foundry collectively licking their lips right now.

I think this generation has proved beyond any doubt that slow HDDs and netbook CPUs are the real console gaming bottlenecks. If this budget console is still using SSDs and Zen2 then there really is no concern to be had here.
 
zedox

zedox

Member
Oct 28, 2017
5,215
Betelgeuse said:
He/she wasn't posting it for MS' benefit. But somehow I think you knew that already.
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No, you are wrong about what I knew already.

Angst said:
It's almost like I didn't mean literally

Do you guys spend all day at your keyboard waiting for gotcha moments?

Edit



This
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No, I took what you said at face value. No one was looking for gotchas. I don't spend all day at my keyboard for those moments...but you can insinuate whatever you want even when wrong.
 
TangFei

TangFei

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Aug 18, 2019
179
I'll probably end up getting this and the PS5 depending on how cheap Microsoft makes it.
 

Deleted member 135

User requested account closure
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11,682
I hope this isn't true. I don't want the entire baseline of generation lowered because of a super underpowered SKU.

I don't trust that third party publishers would just choose to not develop games for Lockhart instead of hobbling them.
 
Angst

Angst

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,430
zedox said:
No, you are wrong about what I knew already.


No, I took what you said at face value. No one was looking for gotchas. I don't spend all day at my keyboard for those moments...but you can insinuate whatever you want even when wrong.
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So you did understand I wasn't being literal and didn't actually mean for Microsoft to read this and were just looking to be a jerk?

Edit: Misread I think, leaving this up for posterity sake.
 
Voke

Voke

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
1,336
They should wait 1-2 years before launching this. The majority of people open to buying a console at launch ain't settling for less power. On top of that it gimps the tech third parties can use on next gen games.
 
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