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Fanto

Is this tag ok?
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,863
You're missing TheChuggernaut as a 1-hit bulletproof and CeeCee as a one-shot day vigilante.

Also, stated with your Cabot comment, yourself as the second Mason.
Yeah, I shouldn't have just done that all off the top of my head haha.

Lone_Prodigy

Deaths:
Stan - Override
Terraforce - Vanilla
Geno - Vanilla
Turmoil - Mafia Backup
Cabot - Mason (my former partner!)

Claims:
Fantomas - Mason
Fran - Town Backup, inherited Stan's Override, used it to kill Turmoil.
Pirate Bae - Cop claim with green check on Ketkat.
FluxWaveZ - X-Shot Commuter.
CeeCee - 1-Shot DayVig (Shot Stan)
TheChuggernaut - 1-Shot Bulletproof
 

Fandorin

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,356
I should have added Flux when I made that list. That would have helped today.

Also, after a good start, Sawneeks is kinda disappearing. Not much yesterday and today.
She's back now, so I think we'll see more of her soon, just hope we see more from her other than this push on me. She doesn't seem prepared to see my flip.
 

Fran

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,167
I'm sad that Grizzly nerfed today modifier because that Fandorin & Brazil boat is really tempting.
 
OP
OP
The Bear

The Bear

Forest Animal
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
4,207
==== DAY 3 VOTES ====
Day Start

faddy (3 votes)
fantomas - #2,985
fluxwavez - #2,996
ceecee - #3,163

fandorin (2 votes)
sawneeks - #2,964
thechuggernaut - #3,097

malus (2 votes)
brazil - #3,017
natiko - #3,335

ezekelrage (1 votes)
blargonaut - #3,152

brazil (1 votes)
faddy - #3,289

ceecee (1 votes)
ezekelrage - #2,961

lone_prodigy (1 votes)
dr. monkey - #3,114 #3,142
dr. monkey - #3,209

zubz (0 votes)
blargonaut - #3,105 #3,152

pirate bae (0 votes)
dr. monkey - #3,142 #3,209

Post Counts:
fantomas: 45 fran: 39 blargonaut: 35 dr. monkey: 34 fluxwavez: 30 sorian: 29 brazil: 25 ezekelrage: 22 kyanrute: 19 thechuggernaut: 17 rac: 15 sawneeks: 15 fandorin: 14 faddy: 14 natiko: 14 absolutbro: 9 ceecee: 7 grizzly: 6 malus: 4 pirate bae: 3 fireblend: 3 ketkat: 2 lone_prodigy: 2

Click here to go to the Vote Tool!
 

Sawneeks

One Winged Slayer
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
6,854
Gonna break up this catch up for funsies.
Good, do you have more to add?
Nah, you kinda covered it.
I have a hard time scum reading anyone right now. Those that were suspicious to me (Pirate Bae, Flux, Turmoil, KetKat) are either semi confirmed town or dead scum.
The one I feel worst about would probably be rac. His vote switching seems kind of strange considering he even acknowledged that votes get locked in in a previous post.
Faddy seems very defensive today and I get a bad feeling about that. He kind of reminds me of Brexit.

If Lone_Prodigy doesn't post soon, I'd also put some suspicion there. His predecessors also didn't really provide much insight.
Very much dislike this post. We just had a Scum flip on a crazy Day End and you're not sure where to go? It's already been pointed out as well but Fandorin and Brazil being left out here is giving me a bad feeling.

For someone who a lot of people were saying loves data I'm shocked you are at a loss.
I've caught up with the game and will post in a bit. Just need to take a shower first since I'll be leaving in a bit.

But some quick and dirty answers before I get to it:



Re.: CeeCee and my response to Natiko

I wasn't advocating for CeeCee's lynch yesterday, I was elaborating on my theory that CeeCee could be a scum kill power role that claimed Town Vig. after using his shot, not really explaining where I put him on my list, just that I mentioned that when I responded to Fran's list.

Considering we've had another Night with a single kill, I still think that theory holds some water.

On my vote for Bae, I explained more of that vote when Neeks called me out since it looked like I was sheeping malus on his weird graph. I edged for Bae over KetKat yesterday since (i) she had more posts on the game and more reads out than KetKat and could give us more information when flipped, and (ii) I agreed with the idea that others brought to the thread that Scum! Pirate Bae was sucking up to Town! KetKat expecting her town flip to give her credit. This idea backfired hard after her claim and I was wrong on my read, but that was my mindset then.

I'll add also listed Pirate Bae when Brazil asked me my 3 top gut scum reads back at D1.

You mean why we didn't want Pirate Bae to be the D2 lynch? Cause she was leading the votes and her claim had cleared her back then, plus I had voted for her previously but couldn't move it.
Any thoughts about what I said of you or you just gonna ignore it

Also, after a good start, Sawneeks is kinda disappearing. Not much yesterday and today.
People always think I post more than I actually do. Especially in a game with Nat, Sorian, and Monkey I look a lot quieter right now.

She's back now, so I think we'll see more of her soon, just hope we see more from her other than this push on me. She doesn't seem prepared to see my flip.
This too. Just because I don't post it 5 times every page doesn't mean I'm not ready for it.
 

Dr. Monkey

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,029
Yeah, I'm gonna have to see this good case that can be made against me first. But what's up with this "I don't think they are scum together" link? That's the first I've heard of it.
But where's the link? Monkey just said she thought we aren't both scum and is leaning towards me.
She's back now, so I think we'll see more of her soon, just hope we see more from her other than this push on me. She doesn't seem prepared to see my flip.
Part of it is simple probability. For y'all to both be scum and to be in a boat together is a lot. Not impossible, but unlikely. You've also differed in ways that have seemed organic. But I also don't think this is the first time that it's come up, though it isn't important enough to me, at least, to search out.

We haven't had time to talk much in there yet. I've told Fandorin that my positive read of him deteriorated a bit with his reaction to Bae's claim, but I'm not ready to jump into that train yet.
As prolific a poster as you often are, Brazil, I'm gonna say I struggle with this, and struggle more since that seems like the most ideal opportunity for you two to figure each other out.
 

Fandorin

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,356
Gonna break up this catch up for funsies.

Nah, you kinda covered it.

Very much dislike this post. We just had a Scum flip on a crazy Day End and you're not sure where to go? It's already been pointed out as well but Fandorin and Brazil being left out here is giving me a bad feeling.

For someone who a lot of people were saying loves data I'm shocked you are at a loss.

Any thoughts about what I said of you or you just gonna ignore it


People always think I post more than I actually do. Especially in a game with Nat, Sorian, and Monkey I look a lot quieter right now.


This too. Just because I don't post it 5 times every page doesn't mean I'm not ready for it.
Can you link me to your case then? I thought I covered it when I answered the turmoil connection, but sure. On mobile and unsure if I can elaborate on it throughly right now though.
 

Dr. Monkey

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,029
Nah, you kinda covered it.
You came rushing out of the gate on this, but you don't have anything to add?

25Rj.gif
 

Brazil

Actual Brazilian
Member
Oct 24, 2017
18,458
São Paulo, Brazil
As prolific a poster as you often are, Brazil, I'm gonna say I struggle with this, and struggle more since that seems like the most ideal opportunity for you two to figure each other out.
I'm sorry you're struggling with this, but I'm simply not gonna entertain an activity argument. We've both been busy, and we both have had to spend time in here being accused. There's still more than half the phase left. We'll get there.
 

Lone_Prodigy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,432
Yeah, I shouldn't have just done that all off the top of my head haha.

Lone_Prodigy

Deaths:
Stan - Override
Terraforce - Vanilla
Geno - Vanilla
Turmoil - Mafia Backup
Cabot - Mason (my former partner!)

Claims:
Fantomas - Mason
Fran - Town Backup, inherited Stan's Override, used it to kill Turmoil.
Pirate Bae - Cop claim with green check on Ketkat.
FluxWaveZ - X-Shot Commuter.
CeeCee - 1-Shot DayVig (Shot Stan)
TheChuggernaut - 1-Shot Bulletproof

Thank you kindly.

Bae only had the one result? And I assume scum didn't shoot there because they feared protection and/or didn't have a strongman to bypass said protection?
 

Fran

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,167
Part of it is simple probability. For y'all to both be scum and to be in a boat together is a lot. Not impossible, but unlikely. You've also differed in ways that have seemed organic. But I also don't think this is the first time that it's come up, though it isn't important enough to me, at least, to search out.

I wouldn't go that route. It's likely that Grizzly just did it randomly with a couple of meme boats just for fun (yours and the brothers). But besides that I don't think that we should use that as I doubt that Grizzly would give clues about who could or couldn't be scum like that.
 

Dr. Monkey

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,029
I'm sorry you're struggling with this, but I'm simply not gonna entertain an activity argument. We've both been busy, and we both have had to spend time in here being accused. There's still more than half the phase left. We'll get there.
Seriously, though, if you need time to reassess, take your time. No one wants a mislynch because folks are busy. You don't have to respond to every single post. You know this. That you're frustrated and doing it anyway is also part of what makes me think you're more likely to be town than Fando, but no, I don't like it if you're not using the biggest tool at your disposal to solve the person you know best.
 

Dr. Monkey

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,029
I wouldn't go that route. It's likely that Grizzly just did it randomly with a couple of meme boats just for fun (yours and the brothers). But besides that I don't think that we should use that as I doubt that Grizzly would give clues about who could or couldn't be scum like that.
That's why it isn't my only reason, but if the boats are RNG, and the roster is RNG, it's a factor. It's just unlikely. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 

Sawneeks

One Winged Slayer
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
6,854
Sawneeks What do you think about Faddy?
Would have to go and read what people are arguing against him for more thoroughly but I don't have great feelings on him. His sudden change of heart with his read on me gives me bad vibes. Faddy makes much better reads than that and it felt like unnecesary shade.
Can you link me to your case then? I thought I covered it when I answered the turmoil connection, but sure. On mobile and unsure if I can elaborate on it throughly right now though.
[13/30]
Still want to ISO: Zubz and rac. Might go for Chuggs and Flux, depends on time. Gonna be busy soon so these won't be until much later.

KetKat:

Just jokes around a bit for the first bit of Day 1 and doesn't change up much until #696 where people have called her out for being 'too jokey'. In that same post she says she would not want to vote people into the Godking role that could use it for Scum purposes and 'get away with it'. However, in the same exact post she states: " . I think that it's important to pick someone who we feel suspicious about in some way that we feel we can actually for sure gain something from." She gives Blarg as an example as someone who she is suspicious of but feels could get away with the Godking role as Scum because he doesn't answer questions directly. Expands on this to Monkey/Sorian in #711

Comes back in later and questions why Stan and Brazil have so many votes, though isn't against it. Does mention that she wouldn't vote in anyone who would want her dead like cabot. #1470

Fanto asks for reads. Gives Fanto because of the way they 'spread doubt' about others. Completely admits that this is how they, Ket, played in Conspiracy. Also sheeps CeeCee scum read. #1667

#1936. Says that she does not like leashing someone that people think is Neutral/Scum. Says that this gives them more opportunities to harm Town than anything as they can turn on us. Which is interesting as this somewhat contradicts her later statement at #2426 where she says if CeeCee shoots someone we want today then it would alleviate her concerns of him. I even ask her to clarify in #2470 and she doubles down on it. I..sort of see the reasoning here but it makes very little sense. She doesn't want to leash someone that people think is Anti-Town but goes on later to say if CeeCee does what they say then she would trust him more. It doesn't feel like she is willing to entertain the idea of a Scum/neutral!CeeCee blowing up whoever we want so he can stay alive. Feels like a weird omission from someone who I generally feel is a logical player.

Conclusion: Probably Scum. Not much solving, only sparse posts that have little new thoughts to them, and contradictory posts.


Turmoil7:

I'd sum up turmoil's play so far as 'inoffensive'. He's just kind of here, not a lot of strong stances, not a lot of new ideas. His biggest 'wave' would be his opening post this Day Phase.

What is interesting is his early Day 1 play is, again, inoffensive. He does give reads but they just sort of flow out from him. #337 he doesn't like the 'I don't want to be elected' people but finds it hard to make that alignment indicative. However, would kill Flux over Fran because of this. Also says rac is flying low.

#292 likes Sorian/Natiko for having a similar Godking election idea. Would not vote for blarg because of blargspeak. #381 notes how Brazil votes for Fandorin and while he, turmoil, likes Fandorin it makes him wary. Notes how Brazil made a Flux vs Terra post but doesn't actually comment on the contents of it. Wouldn't vote Power Rangers ( :( )

#636 Leaning town on Febe. Asks Fando what his take is on him. #639 clarifies to cabot that he likes Febe because his posts 'feel right' and because Febe supports Fandorin who he also likes. Notes that he didn't vote Fandorin because he didn't want to create a 'runaway Fandorin effect'?

#1012 Likes Stan, wouldn't vote for cabot. Votes for Fandorin here because his momentum seemed to have slowed down. Seems very concerned about appearing to push Fandorin along. Mentions in #1059 that he was wary of Fandorin because he had a lot of support from players 'like cabot' but it just deflated. Doesn't know what to make of it. Yet he supports Fandorin with a vote?

#1151 Notes he is selfconscious this game. Jumps to Pirate Bae for some reason. Town leans on Malus and Ketkat because they are easy targets, scum reads on rac and zubz (who for some reason aren't easy targets?)

#1269 Describe the Bae vote as wanting to give more options outside of the available vote leaders of the time. It didn't work, making him suspect that maybe scum was satisfied with the leaders at the time. Consolidates vote to Stan. For the record the vote leaders at the time are: Stan (4 votes), Brazil (3 votes), cabot (2 votes), geno (2 votes), fandorin (2 votes). Why go for Stan if Scum was happy with this spread?

Author's Note: wanted to keep CeeCee alive. Was pretty confident in him being Town Vig.

The infamous PR post #2381. Expected Flux or Fran to die from PR hints, notes maybe scum were scared of a Doc. #2396 for some reason notes what Febe's kill list was (why Febe??) and says if Flux is Town to look at that post. Wouldn't want to lynch Flux because of his claim hint. Spend rest of phase defending this post.

Conclusion: Again, inoffensive. He is incredibly conscious of how his actions appear in the game and is acting with that in mind. Specifically not voting Fandorin when he was popular and leaving Fando when gaining some heat. For some reason he has a connection to Fandorin here and I don't understand it. His reasons for jumping to Bae seem half-hearted at best. Not many lines of questioning, just sort of posts what he thinks at times. I'm….actually unsure here. He REALLY likes Fandorin though but is very aware of not being too supportive of him. I don't know if I scum read him though and I can't place why that is. He really leaves me scratching my head. Wouldn't be against him being lynched though, just think he would be lower on my list..
It hasn't changed much outside of the fact that Turmoil did flip Scum. If you did respond to this i didn't catch it, sorry. The only response from you that I remember was a halfhearted post saying, "yeah turmoil just town reading me is weird, huh?'.
You came rushing out of the gate on this, but you don't have anything to add?

25Rj.gif
giphy.gif

the rest of your post made me feel marginally better
pardon my visceral gif reaction
it's cool.
 

Fanto

Is this tag ok?
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,863
Bae only had the one result? And I assume scum didn't shoot there because they feared protection and/or didn't have a strongman to bypass said protection?
She hasn't said anything today yet but I'm expecting she'll have a big post whenever she shows up.

Me and Cabot were assuming in Mason Chat overnight that she wouldn't be the target unless they had a Strongman, so that would be my assumption right now yeah.
 

Fanto

Is this tag ok?
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,863
Faddy makes much better reads than that and it felt like unnecesary shade.
This is how I felt when he was trying to say yesterday that he and I were scum reading each other. I definitely always had Faddy in my Town lists, so the fact that he would try to push that narrative out of nowhere to justify a scum read of me that AB had seemed really suspect.
 

Sawneeks

One Winged Slayer
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
6,854
Got to head to work so I'll be back later and finish catching up.
How many games have you been in this size with only one NK? It's not exactly the norm for our community. It also generally speaking makes me feel better about CeeCee's claim as we continue to not see other non-expected kills pop up (reducing the likelihood of CeeCee being a scum JOAT).
How does this influence your thoughts on Chuggs, our claimed BP?
[QUOTE="FluxWaveZ, post: 16858216, member: 1219"
Sawneeks, what do you think about CeeCee right now?[/QUOTE]
uuuuuuuuuugggggggghhhhhhhhhhh

He's probably Town, I guess. Still hate the shot, still hate how cagey he was around everything. At worst he's a neutral and I'm doubting Scum at this point. Turmoil also real quickly jumped into saying 'he's probably our TownVig, huh?' and that's a quick alignment to jump on so soon after.

still think he's been playing very anti-town though. >:(
 

Sorian

One Winged Slayer
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,964
I didn't quote anything on that catch up but the vote from...Natiko? On malus really drove home that I have like no read on him so far. I'm going to try to read some of his posts when I get home later.

——

In regards to Brazil's question, I'd counter that you weren't particularly strong edge against turmoil to begin with because there is a lot of groundwork laid, but again, when you had the power to do something, he wasn't high on your priority list, so you not following through when he was up for lynch isn't exactly a shocking change either.
 

Sorian

One Winged Slayer
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,964
Oh and yeah, I also have been trying to not call Bae a cop even though that's what I think she is. Only thing kind of making me wait is I don't think we received any type of result today from her so I don't know what's up.
 

Natiko

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,263
After looking over day end again a few players shift a bit in my thoughts, as plenty of people have discussed Brazil doesn't look great - not just for the push for Flux but also the general bloodthirsty nature such as when he wanted Zubz dead for dropping. Felt a bit opportunistic. Sorian's posts could go either way. In one sense it's good that he doesn't overtly defend turmoil, on the other hand it's Sorian who is always a hard read for me. I already town read Chuggs but his day end makes that feel really solid. No clue what rac was doing, his play all around has been bizarre and hard to get a grasp on. AB looks really good from his push for turmoil. Kyan is a mixed bag, I like the logical approach but he waits it out and holds his vote. Honestly if he had even just voted Flux I would have felt a bit better. Monkey seems scatterbrained and overwhelmed at day end which seems fine, but she doesn't really say much on matters until the vote so it doesn't really push my read on her any which way.

All that said, the person that stands out the most to me at day end is Saw:

I still have my vote, just debating between Flux and Turmoil right now. I want to see how their argument goes.
Starts out wanting to see the argument unfold, that's fair since votes would lock in.

Being cagey at this point isn't getting you anywhere.

You were completely untargetable on N1 or what?
I'll be honest in that I could see every single one of these claims as Town and it's fucking with me. aahrgrjhsgfdjhfg

but hey while Sorian/Brazil can't post let's make faces at them.

The one time I'm actually mad at this post limit is now. If you're a commuter why use your x-shot last night? On N1?

agrjhsfd
Early on Saw starts pushing Flux for more info and doesn't really ask as much of turmoil.

My thought as well but his self-vote gives me pause as well. Why would Scum do that on a day they can't move? I understand Fran was holding the Override over all our heads and we assumed he would take control but that's one hell of a vote to place.
Sprinkles in some doubt around Flux but at the same time immediately gives an excuse to dismiss the doubt.

Why did you pick Flux to check?
Asks turmoil a fairly innocuous question.

God, i think they may both be Town but thinking back that early stuff Turmoil posted this Day Phase makes way more sense. The Fandorin connection still leaves me lost and why he keeps on sheeping him but. gah.

gaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah.

leaning Flux.
Again, pushing Flux as the preferred lynch.

turmoil7 Seconding this question. You shouldn't get alignment, just PR or not PR.
Only now do we get Saw with a question that seems to be turning on Turmoil with 11 minutes left and piggybacking off of someone else's observations.

Vote: Turmoil7

at least we're keeping with the theme of our Day Ends being insane shows.

AB brings up a great point in what turmoil said about checking to see if Flux is a Town PR or not. He wouldn't get an alignment out of that check. Going for turmoil also for a clearer look at Fandorin and Flux. If turmoil is scum lynch Fandorin, he's been following him a ton. Just look at my big ISO.
And then we finally get a vote for Turmoil three minutes later without really bothering to see his response (as it is not reflected in this post). Feels to me like Saw was pushing for a Flux lynch over turmoil pretty much the whole way and only reluctantly gives in and votes turmoil when she deems it a lost cause. I also find it interesting pushing for the chain lynch into Fandorin. Makes me think Saw and Fand as partners is unlikely.
 

Fandorin

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,356
It hasn't changed much outside of the fact that Turmoil did flip Scum. If you did respond to this i didn't catch it, sorry. The only response from you that I remember was a halfhearted post saying, "yeah turmoil just town reading me is weird, huh?"

I posted these regarding the turmoil link:
You mean this last post right? I think it summarizes my views of the "turmoil connection".

Besides me town leaning him throughout the game, I don't think I've linked myself with him, while at the same time he had mentioned me as a strong town read since the beginning, before other players started voting for me as a possible town leader at D1. He waffled a bunch and had that weird post that's been pointed out a lot already that he was worried about the "Fandorin train" and later that it deflated, but that didn't lead up to much. I wasn't the topic of discussion on D2 and I don't think he even mentioned me after that.

I understand turmoil could've been interested in pushing his scummate as the leader on D1, but other than that this link was aimless for a scum player. I never really bring much attention on this community, especially early on, so him having me as one of his "strongest town reads" doesn't work out at all.
I hadn't reached the limit yet, so I could've posted more at that point, but I'll add that I posted that in response to Neeks saying she was leaning on voting for Flux. She mentioned her beef with the turmoil connection with me and said she was leaning for Flux. I know that link doesn't really exist, so I felt I needed to respond there.

Honestly I was also very indecisive about it until the end. I would've voted for turmoil there at the end if I still had my vote, but it wasn't really that clear cut to me.
Realized that that the start of the first post is written horribly. It should read:

"Besides the fact that I was leaning town on him, I don't think I've contributed to this link between him and me. (...)"

I'll reiterate it. It was a very one-sided connection. He made a off hand town read on me and pushed in a disoriented manner for me to become the D1 Leader that didn't go anywhere. At the start a few players were town reading me, but it was OK. Come D2, I don't think he even mentioned me once (I'll check, but I think he didn't). Since I wasn't the topic of any discussion then, he just completely ignored my posts despite town me. You mentioned he kept following me, but he never really considered my posts or elaborated on my thoughts.

I don't think a scum member would be this careless towards another teammate. I'd expect scummies to be at least careful with their "relationships" with other scummies in the main thread.
 

Natiko

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,263
Saw jumping out at my for day end reminded me of an exchange she had with Fireblend that I thought deserved some more attention too:

[2/30]


I don't understand this post. Is it because Terra died? If so, I understand it, but it seems a bit forced.


I don't understand this one either. No elaboration needed, just, I feel like people are shifty-eyes-ing one another here and I'm out of the loop.

I still think the list of "people who voted for Stan and where in Brazil's kill list" holds some water, although evidently Terra wasn't scum. Still willing to wager there's probably scum there and it'd be my first place to look.
Here Fire mentions a theory that a few of us had discussed previously that people that voted Stan with little reasoning while appearing in Brazil's kill list might be suspect.

[6/30]

????

Why would you look there now? This is entirely relying on Brazil being Town and we have no way of knowing that. Unless you know Brazil is Town because you're Scum.
Here we get a very strong reaction from Saw right out of the gate trying to discredit the idea.

I have to work based on some assumptions, Brazil being town being one of them for the time being, mostly because I could've seen myself lynching Terra for similar reasons than he did. I had initially suspected him yesterday and wanted Cabot or Stan over him as a leader, so if I was scum it'd probably be better for consistency's sake to still scumread him, even more so after the Terra mislynch, but I turned around on him fairly quickly afterwards.
[8/30]

So your entire defense here is, 'it would've been easier for Scum!Febe to just keep scum reading him'?

That's….not much of a defense. And if that's your reasoning for doing a 180 on Brazil then your insistence on him being Town in order to look at those two lists is scummy as heck.

And I'm not necessarily disagreeing with that sentiment but there's two problems with Febe's argument.

1) He wasn't even sold on Brazil being Town on Day 1, something he admitted himself. The only reason he flipped is because he took a shot he would have done (killing a townie) and going against his initial Scumread would've been 'a lot easier' if he was Scum. Now if Febe came out and had been Townreading Brazil since Day 1 I would say this is different but he essentially did a 180 with a strong enough conviction to take Brazil out as a possible Scum player. That's a big change for little reason.

2) I get you can't operate in this game assuming everyone is out to get you but there is a big difference between Town reading someone and sort of trusting them enough and giving them space to trusting someone so much you think that players who were against them are Scum. The former you can keep in your peripherals as you play while the latter is resting on a lot of trust for someone you aren't 100% sure of.
Then Saw responds reducing Fire's point by saying that it's invalid because he previously was scumreading Brazil.

4/30

Just replying to these, not catching up with other stuff yet:


That's what I said. I feel like the "hard justification" was just a followup to Sneek's assertion of "scum would know Brazil's town", with me replying with the way I'd think scum would do with that knowledge. Obviously that's projected into me in my reply because I'm the one replying.

Read above. Maybe I overdid it because of the post constraint and I wanted Sawneeks to take my idea seriously - I do think there's merit on working based on assumptions until we get better ones or they're disproved, in this case those 3 players I'll keep an eye on.

Yes. Not only Scum!Fireblend, but Scum!anyone, if they were in my shoes and had made the posts I made. I'm not even sure it's a defense, I was just playing along with your Scum!Fireblend-would-know-Brazil-is-town scenario. Seems unfair to lead me down that road and then harp on me when I play along with the hypothetical. And again, insistence is a bit of an exaggeration. I said I'd like to keep an eye on them and still found them worth "not letting go", you asked me about it and I replied saying that obviously some assumptions were needed because this is not a perfect information game.

[9/30]

Okay, remove the whole theoretical Scum!Febe question. You swapped your read on Brazil because of his shot and not much else?
Again taking what Fireblend said and reducing it to a very narrow viewpoint.

As I said yesterday before leaving, I probably didn't explain myself too well, because I think you're under the impression that it was Brazil's shot that turned around my opinion of his when it that happened throughout late D1 and D1.5. Early on in the game I was down on him because of a combination of activity and what I thought was lower proactiveness than usual:



Natiko prodded me on my Brazil read in particular and I answered:



I don't really have posts for when I started to lean town on him (I was already feeling better about him then), but I'd say it was a general transition towards the play style I recognize from him. I think an important turn for me was noticing this as well:



I might be buying my own suspicions a bit too much but that's also why I scumread them currently (turmoil).

My next post after that already had Brazil as a town-read, well before he shot Terra:


And that's the evolution of my Brazil read.
Before Fireblend responds and essentially counters Saw's point entirely.

Fireblend think i accidentally deleted your reply to me during my last post. Thank you for quoting those, I didn't realize that you had shifted a bit during Day 1. Lessens my scum read of you a bit.
Which results in Saw lessening her scum read on Fire "a bit".

The entire exchange on Saw's part doesn't feel very genuine between the overly strong reaction to discredit the idea of looking there followed by using reasoning for why Fire's opinion should be met with skepticism that turned out to be completely wrong, and yet the end result is simply a lessened scum read.
 

Ketkat

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,727
I think that these lines of thought are pretty weird on Pirate Bae to be honest. While she hasn't fully claimed yet, I think we can all assume that she's town at this point. When she shows up and has more information, we'll know better, but I don't see why a scum cop would exist and clear me of all people in the thread. There were so many people out for my lynch, there was still a chance that people might want to check me just to confirm her. It's the riskiest play that scum could have gone for
 

FluxWaveZ

Persona Central
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
10,895
I think that these lines of thought are pretty weird on Pirate Bae to be honest. While she hasn't fully claimed yet, I think we can all assume that she's town at this point. When she shows up and has more information, we'll know better, but I don't see why a scum cop would exist and clear me of all people in the thread. There were so many people out for my lynch, there was still a chance that people might want to check me just to confirm her. It's the riskiest play that scum could have gone for
It's not risky. If Pirate Bae is scum, she knows you're not (so likely town). Since you were a high profile target to get lynched, and I'd say still more so than Bae, your flip would legitimize her role, and let her coast to the end of the game.

We don't know precisely what her role is at this point. We haven't had a report from her on what she did in N2. She could say that she was a 1-shot whatever and so she couldn't do anything in N2, which means her only connection will be to you.

She's definitely not in the same level of twon as Fran and Fantomas are.
 

Ketkat

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,727
It's not risky. If Pirate Bae is scum, she knows you're not (so likely town). Since you were a high profile target to get lynched, and I'd say still more so than Bae, your flip would legitimize her role, and let her coast to the end of the game.

We don't know precisely what her role is at this point. We haven't had a report from her on what she did in N2. She could say that she was a 1-shot whatever and so she couldn't do anything in N2, which means her only connection will be to you.

She's definitely not in the same level of twon as Fran and Fantomas are.

I suppose that could have happened, but with no other cops counter-claiming, I'm still inclined to believe her more than anything else right now.
 

Sawneeks

One Winged Slayer
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
6,854
After looking over day end again a few players shift a bit in my thoughts, as plenty of people have discussed Brazil doesn't look great - not just for the push for Flux but also the general bloodthirsty nature such as when he wanted Zubz dead for dropping. Felt a bit opportunistic. Sorian's posts could go either way. In one sense it's good that he doesn't overtly defend turmoil, on the other hand it's Sorian who is always a hard read for me. I already town read Chuggs but his day end makes that feel really solid. No clue what rac was doing, his play all around has been bizarre and hard to get a grasp on. AB looks really good from his push for turmoil. Kyan is a mixed bag, I like the logical approach but he waits it out and holds his vote. Honestly if he had even just voted Flux I would have felt a bit better. Monkey seems scatterbrained and overwhelmed at day end which seems fine, but she doesn't really say much on matters until the vote so it doesn't really push my read on her any which way.

All that said, the person that stands out the most to me at day end is Saw:


Starts out wanting to see the argument unfold, that's fair since votes would lock in.



Early on Saw starts pushing Flux for more info and doesn't really ask as much of turmoil.


Sprinkles in some doubt around Flux but at the same time immediately gives an excuse to dismiss the doubt.


Asks turmoil a fairly innocuous question.


Again, pushing Flux as the preferred lynch.


Only now do we get Saw with a question that seems to be turning on Turmoil with 11 minutes left and piggybacking off of someone else's observations.


And then we finally get a vote for Turmoil three minutes later without really bothering to see his response (as it is not reflected in this post). Feels to me like Saw was pushing for a Flux lynch over turmoil pretty much the whole way and only reluctantly gives in and votes turmoil when she deems it a lost cause. I also find it interesting pushing for the chain lynch into Fandorin. Makes me think Saw and Fand as partners is unlikely.
Elaborated on this to Fant already but here:
Kyanrute why didn't you vote last phase? You were around


i take back all the nice things i said about him

to be honest he was pretty spot on. Turmoil's PR talk at Day Start is what made me pause because it felt like a breadcrumb to a future claim and I saw that as Townie. Flux was stubborn and frustrating but he still felt Townie to me despite the yelling. In the case I was wrong on turmoil I was debating lynching the claimed 1-shot over the info role so they could get another night to make a check. Again, AB's post about the alignment shift is what got me over the edge.

I was leaning Flux over Turmoil and kept bashing my head against that wall because of the reasoning above. Turmoil's breadcrumb at Day Start was a real longcon for a Scum player to make just for a fakeclaim and Flux's stubborn behavior was not winning him any points. In the case I was wrong I wanted to give a potential info role another chance at Night whereas Flux's now wasted '1-shot' wouldn't have been a big loss if he was telling the truth. AB's post pushed me over the edge because Turmoil had no reason to assume a positive check would mean Town.

I posted these regarding the turmoil link:


Realized that that the start of the first post is written horribly. It should read:

"Besides the fact that I was leaning town on him, I don't think I've contributed to this link between him and me. (...)"

I'll reiterate it. It was a very one-sided connection. He made a off hand town read on me and pushed in a disoriented manner for me to become the D1 Leader that didn't go anywhere. At the start a few players were town reading me, but it was OK. Come D2, I don't think he even mentioned me once (I'll check, but I think he didn't). Since I wasn't the topic of any discussion then, he just completely ignored my posts despite town me. You mentioned he kept following me, but he never really considered my posts or elaborated on my thoughts.

I don't think a scum member would be this careless towards another teammate. I'd expect scummies to be at least careful with their "relationships" with other scummies in the main thread.
You understand nearly every single thing you mentioned here is perfectly reasonable for a scum player to make, right? 'He made a town read on me and pushed it in a disoriented manner', 'stopped mentioning me suddenly on the next Day', and 'let the Fandorin train deflate'. You mention you hadn't made any connection to him and as far as I'm aware you are right in that, though I haven't ISO'd you in particular yet. But nothing of what you said clears up what Turmoil did or why you didn't even react to him in any way. You were aware he kept weirdly Town Reading you strongly for no reason but didn't follow that at all.

And don't you start that WIFOM talk.
The entire exchange on Saw's part doesn't feel very genuine between the overly strong reaction to discredit the idea of looking there followed by using reasoning for why Fire's opinion should be met with skepticism that turned out to be completely wrong, and yet the end result is simply a lessened scum read.
You reminded me I need to go back and actually look at that, thank you. Also not sure what else you want me to say here? Other than you're wrong.

More that she doesn't seem to have other leads to chase once I flip town. Not especially sold on her towniness yet, but I just meant I expecy more reads on other players.
something something we've still got 20 hours something.
 

Natiko

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,263
Left comments on the movement for players that I don't recall talking about in detail in my earlier posts.

Locked Town:
Fran
Fantomas
FluxWaveZ


Town:
Ketkat
Pirate Bae
TheChuggernaut
AbsolutBro


Lean Town:
CeeCee
Dr. Monkey
EzekelRAGE
Fireblend
Brazil


Null:
Blargonaut
- Overall I feel a bit better about Blarg. Still not enough to put him in the town pile due to the bit earlier where it seemed like he wasn't really paying attention to the game anymore but I'm no good at reading Blarg.
Sorian
Faddy
kyanrute
Fandorin


Lean Scum:
rac
- A light lean just because his play seems to rarely help town, but it's also hard to explain w. Would save this for another day.

Scum:
Lone_Prodigy
- Still nothing substantial from LP after nothing substantial from nin after nothing substantial from kawl.
Sawneeks
malus
 

Kyanrute

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,629
Tomato
Back to the throwing away votes journal of mine.

oh no it is brazil he posts a lot

Journal 1st, thoughts later.

#2835 breadcrumbs match the claim. This felt and feels weird because PR != scum. Also turmoil's crumbs weren't exactly subtle.
#3047 AB convinced him that turmoil lynch was the way to go. Not visible in thread. Defending AB. Lessens the chance both are scum?
#3093 reiterates #2835. Concerns unaddressed.
#3266 "hello i bus. HARD. CORE." Defense is good, sure. But since the vote was locked, all we have is actions. What to think though.
#3339 oh no the additional day again. I've now lost against this twice.

umm that is about three million less posts than expected and yes i will always take shots against mean megaposters

Not feeling the protection.

Brazil What exactly made sense about turmoil's crumbs at the time you posted #2835 and how did that reinforce your feeling that he was town?