donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
ITT, predict for the NPD March 2018 retail period (March 4-April 7, 2018) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but SalesEra followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
Trust me said:
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
ethomaz said:
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, April 17th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: March 4-April 7, 2018 (5 weeks, February was 4 weeks)
NPD Physical Release: Thursday, April 19th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted 5 days later on April 24th ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in March:
Nothing particularly impactful?

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

February's results
I didn't see anyone post what the numbers would be so this is what I get.

PS4: ~363K (-9% YoY)
XB1: ~310K (+44% YoY)
NSW: ~279K

February 2017 NPD thread
March 2017 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,937
[PS4] 297K
[XB1] 270K
[NSW] 269K
 
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Revolsin

Usage of alt-account.
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,373
This is the Smash hype month yeah?

[PS4] 280k
[NSW] 330k
[XB1] 270k
 

MrTired

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,232
Isn't the order of hardware for March usually the same as February? Does anyone know if the XB1 had pricecut again for this month?
[PS4] 340K
[XB1]280K
[NSW]285K
 
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Peek-a-boo!

Member
Oct 30, 2017
4,236
Woodbridge
[PS4] 290K
[NSW] 223K
[XB1] 248K

I have got a feeling that hardware numbers will drop by 20% across the board.

Apart from Far Cry 5, I cannot think of any other major game this month...

Waiting for Welfare's wall of information later on!
 
Oct 29, 2017
2,398
Last year was
Switch 906
Xbox 249
Playstation 416

But last year was madness, with Switch arriving and Zelda having an attach rate > 1, Ghost Recon, Horizon, ME:A releasing, and also days before Persona and Nier. Even with Far Cry I'm expecting PS4 and of course Switch to be way down.

[NSW] 275k
[PS4] 300k
[XB1] 280k
 
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gordofredito

Banned
Jan 16, 2018
2,992
Far Cry 5 definitely pushed some Xbox and PS4s, Sea of Thieves must have also helped XBO and I doubt Kirby pushed many Switches, so...

[PS4] 281k
[XBO] 278k
[NSW] 260K
 

Revolsin

Usage of alt-account.
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,373
No one is picking the Switch to be ahead for March? February really changed our outlook, didn't it.

I did. People get pretty easily influenced by previous results it's not hard to see why Switch could top this month, with Kirby and the megaton Smash Bros announcement, to which I heard a very resounding "I'm finally buying a Switch" across the internet when it happened.

The boost is gonna be there. Not super major or anything, but notable.
 

gueras

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
746
[PS4] 350K
[NSW] 305K
[XB1] 260K

I checked amazon.com best sellers for the year and saw ps4 pro take xbox one x... i think x momentum gone...
 

NSESN

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,392
Looking at Amazon, it is clear it has some Nintendo bias, not only Kirby was first, but Smash ranked high too.
 

Jade1962

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,274
I did. People get pretty easily influenced by previous results it's not hard to see why Switch could top this month, with Kirby and the megaton Smash Bros announcement, to which I heard a very resounding "I'm finally buying a Switch" across the internet when it happened.

The boost is gonna be there. Not super major or anything, but notable.

We'll see the people who would buy a switch just for a nebulous announcement of smash are probably the same people who already own a switch and happily purchased a Wii U. Smash increase will take effect when there is an actual release date.
 

Revolsin

Usage of alt-account.
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,373
We'll see the people who would buy a switch just for a nebulous announcement of smash are probably the same people who already own a switch and happily purchased a Wii U. Smash increase will take effect when there is an actual release date.

Just the '2018' alone was a pretty big bomb, especially with how consistent Nintendo's been with release windows lately.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,315
Nashville
PS4] 305k
[XB1] 273k
[NSW] 280k

I think it'll be a very good month overall for hardware.
Software it'll be FC5 at number 1 obviously. MLB the Show at number 2 with over 400k sold. Kirby gonna shock and come in 3rd with over 300k sold.