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Media Create Sales: Week 11, 2020 (Mar 09 - Mar 15)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Considerations in regards to the sales of Animal Crossing: New Horizons, compared to Animal Crossing: New Leaf
- Organic increase of digital sales since New Leaf launch across all markets
- Organic growth because the Switch is much more popular in the west than the 3DS
- Organic franchise growth thanks to merchandising, cameos in Super Smash Bros. and the mobile game Animal Crossing: Pocket Camp
- Worldwide launch, whereas New Leaf was released in Japan in November 2012 and in North America and Europe in June 2013
- Temporary sales boost, thanks to millions of homebound people due to the coronavirus, especially Europe
Facts
- UK physical retail launch week sales were more than 3.5 times New Leaf launch week sales
- New Horizons sold 1894 units at COMG!, and the x1000 multiplier for nationwide retail sales for Nintendo first-party sales has been a good estimate in the past
- New Horizons has the best launch week sales of any game ever at Japanese retailer GEO (~600 stores)
- Insiders in US retail suggest New Horizons is combatting Pokémon and Smash launch week sales in (parts of) the US physical retail market
The combination of these facts and considerations make it clear that Animal Crossing is a much more serious contender to take that Best Launch Sales trophy than it was in the past, and the massive increase is not a regional phenomenon, but a global one.
- Organic increase of digital sales since New Leaf launch across all markets
- Organic growth because the Switch is much more popular in the west than the 3DS
- Organic franchise growth thanks to merchandising, cameos in Super Smash Bros. and the mobile game Animal Crossing: Pocket Camp
- Worldwide launch, whereas New Leaf was released in Japan in November 2012 and in North America and Europe in June 2013
- Temporary sales boost, thanks to millions of homebound people due to the coronavirus, especially Europe
Facts
- UK physical retail launch week sales were more than 3.5 times New Leaf launch week sales
- New Horizons sold 1894 units at COMG!, and the x1000 multiplier for nationwide retail sales for Nintendo first-party sales has been a good estimate in the past
- New Horizons has the best launch week sales of any game ever at Japanese retailer GEO (~600 stores)
- Insiders in US retail suggest New Horizons is combatting Pokémon and Smash launch week sales in (parts of) the US physical retail market
The combination of these facts and considerations make it clear that Animal Crossing is a much more serious contender to take that Best Launch Sales trophy than it was in the past, and the massive increase is not a regional phenomenon, but a global one.
Some bonkers numbers being reported by GEO. AC is about as big as you can get in Japan, but this should be a wild debut for the leggy game that AC games typically are. Lifetime sales should become something unprecedented as well ( maybe only beaten by Pokémon RGB?).
6M+ as reported on Gamedatalibrary:
My bet is ACNH enter the top 3 lifetime, and May take second place. First place will be very hard, though.
6M+ as reported on Gamedatalibrary:
Code:
System Title FW LTD Publisher Release Date
GB Pokémon Red / Green / Blue 140.074 7.936.360 Nintendo 27/02/1996
FC Super Mario Bros. 6.810.000 Nintendo 13/09/1985
NDS New Super Mario Bros. 865.024 6.428.457 Nintendo 25/05/2006
GB Pokémon Gold / Silver 1.425.768 6.088.144 Nintendo 21/11/1999
This is a strange argument. How can you state the duration of a peak while still in the middle of it. The volumes are still selling very well and there no evidence or reason to believe they'll be slowing anytime soon as it's believed the manga will be ending in the next few months. Whether that's true or not the fanbase has every reason to be engaged during this final stretch.
The multiplier has been all over the place in the Switch Era. I wouldnt count it as a fact tbh :P
With that said, I agree with everything else you said :>
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We usually don't get US launch numbers for the first few days. We usually get numbers for the month the game launched in. It will be hard to do a direct comparison for North America.
I can't believe that there are still people underestimating ACNH's potential when you look at UK's numbers. If the opening of the game in the UK is that high (without digital which should be huge as well) then I don't really know how ridiculously high it will be in the US.
We're not talking about hard numbers though, we're talking about retail insights from a retail insider.
My apologies, I thought you were using the insights to determine how big the actual launch (the hard numbers) would be.
I think it'll beat Pokémon's launch worldwide, and with that be the biggest debut for a Nintendo game of all time. 6.5 million sales first weekend to consumers is my guess. Close to 3 million in Japan alone.
I mean, yeah I think using the retail insights is a good way of telling us what games it will be comparable to in terms of launch numbers, whether or not we ever see official launch numbers. For AC we're gonna get 11 days worth of numbers in March versus 4 weeks of December numbers for Smash, so yeah Smash's first reported numbers will be higher since that's not exactly a fair comparison.
They may do PR for AC, which would be the only way to get official numbers.
Smash sold-through + digital was 5M for the Opening Weekend (2 Days JP / 3 Days ROTW / 3 Day Digital Global).
Pokemon SwSh's 6 million figure was sell-through for the same time frame (2 Days JP / 3 Days ROTW / 3 Day Digital Global)
The probable PR we get this coming Thursday will give ACNH figures for the same time frame. I expect 6.5-7M reported so it takes the lead for #1 NSW launch.
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We have PR for ww sales from Nintendo. Pokemon opening in NA is at least comparable to Smash.
I'm also thinking around 5 million worldwide first week.
That's retail alone, with digital it probabily lands somewhere 4-4.5 million
That's retail alone, with digital it probabily lands somewhere 4-4.5 million
IIRC the only specific number we got with digital was 5 million by Jan 31st. So 4.5 million is probably the best estimate.
I'll need to find a post on another forum that had them all listed since I cant be bothered looking every title up :P
But as of some time last year the COMG ratio for Nintendos Switch titles was very much ranging from 500 - 2500. I'd say that's all over the place.
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If you start counting every game that was sold to 10-50 people maybe. When the sample is big no.
PR and/or quarterly report for Animal Crossing is going to be fun.
So many people will not believe how much it sells.
So many people will not believe how much it sells.
I was refering to Nintendos titles only. I will see if I can find the post later tonight and get back to you.
No problems eating crow if I'm wrong, but I dont think I am :>
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I think digital is the wild card this time. What with everything going on right now (plus the type of game this is) I think the digital split has the capacity to be >50%, which would probably cement this as the biggest Switch launch yet if true.
First Week physical sales for 15 Nintendo published titles
- Usually, the more "casual" oriented a title is, the bigger the multiplier from COMG to nationwide sales is
- The bigger the sample, the more accurate the x1000 multiplier should be
Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 1.894 COMG -> *.***.*** Famitsu (?)
Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX - 139 COMG -> 139.000 Famitsu (x1000)
Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE Encore - 25 COMG -> 19.000 Famitsu (x760)
Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch - 25 COMG -> 35.000 Famitsu (x1400)
Pokémon Sword/Shield - 1.444 COMG -> 1.365.000 Famitsu (x945)
Luigi's Mansion 3 - 157 COMG -> 151.000 Famitsu (x962)
Ring Fit Adventure - 61 COMG -> 68.000 Famitsu (x1115)
The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening - 106 COMG -> 141.000 Famitsu (x1330)
Astral Chain - 38 COMG -> 32.000 Famitsu (x842)
Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 172 COMG -> 143.000 Famitsu (x831)
Super Mario Maker 2 - 165 COMG -> 196.000 Famitsu (x1188)
Yoshi's Crafted World - 71 COMG -> 50.000 Famitsu (x704)
New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 193 COMG -> 186.000 Famitsu (x960)
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 1.438 COMG -> 1.238.000 Famitsu (x861)
Pokémon: Let's Go, Pikachu/Eevee! - 518 COMG -> 664.000 Famitsu (x1282)
Even if ACNH's multiplier went as low as Yoshi's x704, that'd mean 1.333.000 physical sales via Famitsu.
Average multiplier is x1013, which would mean 1.918.000 physical sales via Famitsu.
By the way, I really should have shut up and looked at the new data from UK, US and Japan before saying that 10m shipments during FY19 were impossible for ACNH lol. My bad skittzo0413
- Usually, the more "casual" oriented a title is, the bigger the multiplier from COMG to nationwide sales is
- The bigger the sample, the more accurate the x1000 multiplier should be
Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 1.894 COMG -> *.***.*** Famitsu (?)
Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX - 139 COMG -> 139.000 Famitsu (x1000)
Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE Encore - 25 COMG -> 19.000 Famitsu (x760)
Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch - 25 COMG -> 35.000 Famitsu (x1400)
Pokémon Sword/Shield - 1.444 COMG -> 1.365.000 Famitsu (x945)
Luigi's Mansion 3 - 157 COMG -> 151.000 Famitsu (x962)
Ring Fit Adventure - 61 COMG -> 68.000 Famitsu (x1115)
The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening - 106 COMG -> 141.000 Famitsu (x1330)
Astral Chain - 38 COMG -> 32.000 Famitsu (x842)
Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 172 COMG -> 143.000 Famitsu (x831)
Super Mario Maker 2 - 165 COMG -> 196.000 Famitsu (x1188)
Yoshi's Crafted World - 71 COMG -> 50.000 Famitsu (x704)
New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 193 COMG -> 186.000 Famitsu (x960)
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 1.438 COMG -> 1.238.000 Famitsu (x861)
Pokémon: Let's Go, Pikachu/Eevee! - 518 COMG -> 664.000 Famitsu (x1282)
Even if ACNH's multiplier went as low as Yoshi's x704, that'd mean 1.333.000 physical sales via Famitsu.
Average multiplier is x1013, which would mean 1.918.000 physical sales via Famitsu.
By the way, I really should have shut up and looked at the new data from UK, US and Japan before saying that 10m shipments during FY19 were impossible for ACNH lol. My bad skittzo0413
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Famitsu Sales: Week 46, 2012 (Nov 05 - Nov 11)
01./00. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.11.08} (¥4.571) - 721.786 / NEW <97,30%>
Famitsu Sales: Week 8, 2017 (Feb 13 - Feb 19)
02./02. [PS4] Nioh <RPG> (Koei Tecmo) {2017.02.09} (¥7.800) - 28.224 / 118.127 <80-100%> (-69%)
New Leaf opening was around 800.000 (600.000 physical copies, 120.000 download cards, 80.000 direct eShop downloads)
01./00. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.11.08} (¥4.571) - 721.786 / NEW <97,30%>
Famitsu Sales: Week 8, 2017 (Feb 13 - Feb 19)
02./02. [PS4] Nioh <RPG> (Koei Tecmo) {2017.02.09} (¥7.800) - 28.224 / 118.127 <80-100%> (-69%)
New Leaf opening was around 800.000 (600.000 physical copies, 120.000 download cards, 80.000 direct eShop downloads)
Maybe if animal crossing "disappoints", people will learn again.
And here's the 2017-2018 ones with big fw sales. Sadly I did not find XC2 and Mario Tennis numbers.
Big titles having ranges from 619 to 1282 is big enough discrepancy for me to state the 1000x multiplier as a fact.
Though it looks like the last 3 big games was reasonably close to 1000 though.
lol. I meant more like I think I know where this data is from :D
Olympics to be postponed to 2021 - Pound
The 2020 Olympic Games will be postponed by a year because of coronavirus, says International Olympic Committee member Dick Pound.
www.bbc.com
Time for Sega to make another game. Mario & Sonic at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics.
I was only joking ;P All data compiled from a vast different posts from the forum you mean yes :P
We don't have any data from Nintendo for Animal Crossing NGC in Japan? GDL has it at 1.027.558 when combining AC + and AC e+ which makes it the 2nd best-selling NGC game, #1 being Super Smash Bros. Melee.
Some of your expectations might be a little low, but I otherwise agree with this post. People are getting alittle over excited here and are forgetting just how lopsided AC's sales were between Japan and west. Even if Horizon outsells Leaf's first 6 months in just two weeks, it would still have to sell 5 times better up front than Leaf in the west to reach 10 million shipped. We aren't seeing either of those yet, so people need to scale back their expectations a bit. This reminds me of some of the runaway LM3 expectations last year.
Ah yes LM3 the game that only sold 87% of its predecessors lifetime sales in the first quarter.
If Animal Crossing does the same percentage we have the 10M in the bag.
As you said WW is the main focus. If they decease in japan they will lament those results but if WW numbers are big they will celebrate the success.
None? They're clearly targeting WW sales and that's what they'll look at. Also it's not like RE and FF haven't been declining in Japan for ages now.
