Media Create Sales: Week 14, 2018 (Apr 02 - Apr 08)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
It could boost sales in the rest of the world though, where it's selling solidly but not lighting the world on fire. A new physical release (with new cover art and the whole 9) might boost sales even higher in JP even higher too.
Like I said, the way it's selling they don't need to do it at all. Just an interesting possibility.
They should already doing it with BOTW imo
Man our expectations are really out of whack right now re: typical legs.
It's now behind Splatoon, Mario Kart and Zelda. Last time I saw numbers for 3D Land, it was doing 20k weeks. Yeah it's lower than I was expecting.
Do we really have to argue semantics?
I guess I take issue with calling them poor. It already has a 3x multiplier off a huge opening week.
It launched later and outsold all of them outside of splatoon with a few k less currently weekly. Comparitively or not these legs aren't poor.
If it makes you feel better, we can talk about how insane those legs are compared to Super Robot Wars on PS4.
When I call them poor, I'm obviously not saying the game sales are poor, but stricly compared to what our expectations might have been for a title like that. Which is why I'm asking if it's still ahead of 3D Land, and if we think it can still do 3M. I'm assuming it goes without saying.
Ok. I agree its legs aren't as good currently as other Switch titles. But I still think they are very good for 99% of games that get released in Japan.
Looking at the shipments Switch has shipped roughly 390k more to others and another 470k to the Americas then the 3DS at the same time period. Japan is down 940k...
Looking at the long time Japan had supply issues I would say that Nintendo is focusing on establishing a foothold in the west.
Software for the Switch is by the way WW 40% higher than 3DS mostly due to the good software sales in other and the Americas. (not including digital)
At the moment Japan is Nintendos weakest market. Especially if you ad in that the 3DS seems to have gotten a second life in the Americas.
So a price cut to boost Japan when we have not seen a full year with plenty of supply seems to be overkill if not more production capacity is going online.
Ignoring the months before the 3DS price cut ignores a huge part of the picture. The Switch has like well over a 700k advantage just from that period. It ignores it had the second best launch month in history.
You 100% cant ignore this. Also if you have that launch aligned data I would love to see it.
Sorry to bring up posts from a page or two back, but I thought we had decided that Switch's baseline was ~40k a week because that's what Nintendo was shipping... It's not sold out to the point of lotteries, but it's still essentially receiving daily shipments at most retailers to avoid being sold out, right?
If they cut the price I don't exactly see how that magically improves their production capability. The biggest reason why it isn't selling like the 3DS is because they aren't making as many.
If they cut the price I don't exactly see how that magically improves their production capability. The biggest reason why it isn't selling like the 3DS is because they aren't making as many.
Oh, I thought YW4 was announced on Famitsu.
Going by Famitsu, 3D Land wasn't doing "20k weekly". In Week 6 2012 it did slightly below 20k. It did 19k in Week 13 and 15, and 21k in Week 14. Then 22k in Week 19. After Week 19, it felt below 10k. The game suffered New Super Mario Bros. 2 competition a lot.
In Week 14 2012, 3D Land was just below 1.5m. Odyssey is at 1.631.329 so launch aligned it still is above. This considering a lower installed base and much more internal competition.
Going by Famitsu, 3D Land wasn't doing "20k weekly". In Week 6 2012 it did slightly below 20k. It did 19k in Week 13 and 15, and 21k in Week 14. Then 22k in Week 19. After Week 19, it felt below 10k. The game suffered New Super Mario Bros. 2 competition a lot.
In Week 14 2012, 3D Land was just below 1.5m. Odyssey is at 1.631.329 so launch aligned it still is above. This considering a lower installed base and much more internal competition.
Week 14 2012 vs Week 14 2018:
Super Mario 3D Land(¥4.800) - 21.996 / 1.486.692
Super Mario Odyssey(¥5.980) - 8.211 / 1.684.107
SMO still 200K ahead, Super Mario 3D Land sold only 282.874 for the rest of 2012 - so it's a pretty safe assumption that it will never lead SMO launch aligned. Another factor is that 3D Land was cheaper on the 3DS than SMO on the Switch.
Super Mario 3D Land(¥4.800) - 21.996 / 1.486.692
Super Mario Odyssey(¥5.980) - 8.211 / 1.684.107
SMO still 200K ahead, Super Mario 3D Land sold only 282.874 for the rest of 2012 - so it's a pretty safe assumption that it will never lead SMO launch aligned. Another factor is that 3D Land was cheaper on the 3DS than SMO on the Switch.
Yeah going in crisis mode for Japan makes no sense Nintendo has purposefully not prioritised Japan since launch shipment wise. The fact the Switch is so much below the 3DS launch alligned and in terms of weekly sales isn't a shock but a purposeful trade off because Japan is pretty much the one major region Nintendo faces the least competition.
Nintendo has essentially kept the future of the Switch relatively shrouded even to this point. We've been given snippets like Labo, but we still don't have a complete picture of what they want to do with hardware revisions, accessories, and online services.
Software is one thing, it will be important, but I think the other aspects of their strategy will be even more important. I'll be interested in how much they reveal towards that by the end of E3.
Software is one thing, it will be important, but I think the other aspects of their strategy will be even more important. I'll be interested in how much they reveal towards that by the end of E3.
Might add that if Nintendo hits their shipment goal the Switch will have shipped 600k more than the 3DS at the same time. And I am not expecting Switch to drop as dramatically as the 3DS did...
So Switch needs a installbase as big as 3DS so software sales dont drop ?
But that does not make sense, Switch is much better at selling Software, even 10m Switches will sell more software than 20m 3DS do.
Of course it needs. lol More units = more third party = more software sales. Nintendo software doing "better" isn't enough.
Switch only selling 10M would be considered a massive failure. Good that this won't happen anyway.
3DS had a period of impressive sales post price cut, only second to the best and record breaking NDS years. There's a reason 3DS became the 3rd best selling dedicated videogame system ever in Japan. Trying to spin Switch selling slightly lower but similar numbers as something to be concerned about is consolewar nonsense.
3rd parties in Japan have other things to worry about. Quite alot of reliable IPs declining to the level seen this year is not sustainable and certainly not relateable to Switch sales beeing "disappointing" in Japan.
3rd parties in Japan have other things to worry about. Quite alot of reliable IPs declining to the level seen this year is not sustainable and certainly not relateable to Switch sales beeing "disappointing" in Japan.
What i mean is that Switch software sales are already better than 3DS with much lower Hardware units sold.
According to Nintendo, as of December 31 2017, the switch sold 9.8 million pieces of Software in its 9 months of life on 3.72 million hardware units sold.
By December 31 2011, the 3DS sold 10.28 million pieces of software in 9 months, but on 4.66 million hardware units sold.
This shows what will become a clear trend, Games(not just first party, but all of them) sell better on Switch than on 3DS.
Third party cares much more about how Games are selling, rather than how the console is selling when deciding if they want to put games on it.
I never said Switch would do just 10M, my guess is that it will actually sell 10M in japan for its first model, and then sell 5-10M extra for each revision they release.
What i said that Switch would sell the same amount of software as 3DS on half the installbase, the 10M number was just a approximation of half the 3DSs sales so far(i should probably have said 12M since 3DS just crossed 24M right ?).
i don't think that's how this works looking at trends. The bigger the further the install base grew in Japan the level of japan 3DS support didn't grow proportionally, in fact the vita started leeching more and more support (whose hardware sales were a small fraction of the 3DS) while the 3DS support consolidated to AAA and kids titles. Nintendo is extremely aware of this fact.
Western growth is increasingly a more important factor in terms of third party support (even for smaller developers) as well as having the userbase that buys those games. The biggest driver of the mid tiers and lower towards the switch currently isn't domestic growth but western growth as their titles are outperfming those on the PS4 in the case a publisher like NISA. Selling more in Japan isn't going increase third party interest in the platform. nintendo has been the market leader for well over a decade now they know how well successful Nintendo systems sell in japan and what ranges they sell to, tehy're a relative known quantity. What Nintendo needed to prove was success outside of Japanas that's where the growth is for these publishers.
:) Capcom has said that they are increasing support for the Switch as well. Ace Attorney is probably even exclusive to the Switch, i dont expect it to be multiplatform at least (maybe for mobile).
You'll have to ask Capcom about that. I mean, you don't have to be a business school graduate to recognize low-hanging fruit like a localized version of Monster Hunter XX or a launch-day port of Okami, but Capcom gotta Capcom.
Noone said Capcom will want to sabotage themselves. They just see NSW as incompetible with their goals of being at the cutting edge (as defined by them) of console gaming.
90% of what Capcom releases are old collections and remasters.
Looks like I was wrong, no reveal today. Sorry.
It's all the Yo-kai's fault!!!
They did tweet the magazine page, but nothing on their website. I'd say that would point towards a non-July release.
With how they bled money after slashing the price, I doubt it had much wiggle room at all.
As you mention, it being low hanging fruit, so maybe Capcom didnt see hose two examples as big money makers. There could be other reasons as well. I just commented since you said that you were wondering if it could be malice towards someone. If they think those things were great business deals and very beneficial for them in the overall picture, i think they would have done it. Capcom has said that they're increasing the Switch support, so overall they believe in the platform :)
You're right that no one said that. I'm sorry if it looked like i ment that he was claiming that. But if Capcom does choices with the intent hurt Nintendo (the Switch), it would indirectly mean that Capcom does it to hurt themself, because such decision will affect Capcom just as much as it would affect Nintendo, if not even more for Capcom themself. Thats is what i ment to say.
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10M software is still more than 9M software. Doesn't matter that it's in a smaller userbase - that's part of the problem. It's a good thing that they're selling more in a smaller userbase, but they need units sold. No third party will "excuse" Nintendo for selling less software, no matter the reason.
Tthe publishers will always care more about the PS4 worldwide-wise, it will simply lead as the best selling console. The Nintendo systems need these japanese sales to get software like they got for the DS and the 3DS - it wasn't the best, but the hardware wasn't strong enough to get multiplat games (PS family development is why Vita got so many games with a small userbase). At this point, the Switch still needs SW on par with what the previous consoles got.
Nintendo tries to not compete directly with Sony, so I don't feel it's a good strategy to not have Japan as a priority - a big market that they have for themselves and now with no Sony portable + with a system that can get multiplat games.
The biggest ones. The rest not so much by all accounts smaller Japanese publishers don't seem to be having as much success on the PS4. The Playstation ecosystem doesn't exist once the vita completely declines which is why your seeing the current trend. In the case of the biggest ones Switch would make a far more appealing ticket than Xbox PS4 outside of very large AAA games that are known to be successful in the west or are aimed to be. Priortising domestic makes little sense neither now or long term.
The reason Nintendo ended up in that position in the first place was because a large proportion of the userbase was concetrated in Japan with less success elsewhere.
But they have sold more software, the software they have sold is actually more profitable as well. There is a few factors for this when compared to the 3DS in 2011:
- Price of physical Switch games are higher than the price of physical 3DS games
- Digital probably accounts to a few million additional sales for 2017 in Japan
- Revenue generated per digital purchases is higher for Nintendo and 3rd party companies compared to revenue generated per physical purchase
I'm not sure how this matches with the aligned situation of Switch and 3DS. Switch sold about 500k less software than 3DS did in the same time span, while Switch had absolute dire third party support compared to 3DS. If third parties aren't going to give Switch an excuse for selling a little bit less software than 3DS in the same time span without bringing a single titles worth a damn, then they are being incredibly obtuse. It is abundantly clear that Switch can sell software very well, better than the 3DS if they would only put their software on it. Level 5 realised this, and are shifting gears hard. If third parties are going to point to Switch selling 500k less on a 10M software number, then they are actively looking for and excuse to snub the system, not carefully assessing it.
So you're saying Capcom has Amazon dreams and a K-Mart budget? Sounds about right...
What their public statements say and what their actions say are two separate things. And Capcom's actions toward the Switch tells me that they're being dragged kicking and screaming to support the Switch, probably by irate shareholders. I suspect their initial plans were to give the Switch token support with USFII and then ignore it, but runaway sales are forcing their hand.
Thats true, but they've increased the number of Switch releases, so that is action, not just statements. And i dont think that they will cancel Ace Attorney or anything like that. But this doesnt explain why there would be any malice towards anyone though. Who would they show malice towards by the way, and why would they have that hate? Was it malice towards Sony when Capcom decided to basically ignore the Vita and go full in on 3DS with Monster Hunter? A franchise that seemingly was more important to Sony's handheld than Nintendo's, based on historical data. Why didnt Capcom just ignore the 3DS if they want to show any malice towards someone?
Switch sold 500k less software while tracking close to the 3DS for a long time. Now it's tracking way behind and will keep at this pace for some time, SW difference will only grow bigger this year. Anyway, I'm not saying the Switch is doomed, but it doesn't seem wise to me to say "nah, no problem because the HW numbers are smaller too".
Japan makes software compelling to Switch's owners and that doesn't cost too much to make/port, while filling their release schedule. I believe Nintendo should still take care of the domestic market to get this kind of support, PS4 always gets games by default. "Abandoning" Japan is a terrible idea and big drops aren't fine because of western growth.
I believe they can have better legs than the 3DS and get to 20M, but shouldn't take it for granted.
Japan makes software compelling to Switch's owners and that doesn't cost too much to make/port, while filling their release schedule. I believe Nintendo should still take care of the domestic market to get this kind of support, PS4 always gets games by default. "Abandoning" Japan is a terrible idea and big drops aren't fine because of western growth.
I believe they can have better legs than the 3DS and get to 20M, but shouldn't take it for granted.
Human beings are irrational, and CEOs are human. Either that, or Sony moneyhats.
Third "Inkopolive" announced for NicoNico Choukaigi (April 28th). This one will have a brand new song. Totally not related to the Pearl and Marina amiibo out on July 13th. They didn't do that with Splatoon and the Marie + Callie amiibo, so why do it for Splatoon 2? Like, what on earth are you talking about, imaginary discussion partner? ;)
I think you're looking at a prime example of Hanlon's razor with Capcom.
Seems too low for me... The series is popular, just not huge with kids.
Quoting Nocturnal:
Looking at 2012 vs. 2018, we see that Switch sold 500k less software compared to 3DS, while sellng about 500k less hardware as well. The theme is the same: hardware-wise the Switch is well behind but software-wise it's pretty close - and again without any semblance of real support from third parties: just look at the top 6 software for both systems in their respective second year (again helpfully provided by Nocturnal):
Switch top 6 has only M+R for third party, while 3DS has MH3G, RE:R and KH 3D, while Switch has to make do with M+R and late ports of Dragon Quest Builders and Hyrule Warriors (is there anything else even remotely notable besides those games from third party?). I really don't think saying Switch software is lagging behind 3DS is a fair comment when considering the situation: Nintendo has less third party support compared to 3DS, so they would need to outsell their own slate of released games on the 3DS by a fair margin to provide similar software sales. As such, even the comment that the software situation is worsening is an exaggeration: it's only worsening because third parties haven't yet gotten their shit together. When H2 rolls around, we know we will see a lot more big third party games (Taiko, DQB2, Inazuma Eleven, Yo-kai Watch 4) and furthermore Nintendo has a strong release slate of their own (which was also lacking this last quarter - probably even for the whole of H1 2018 when leaving Labo out of the equation for the moment).
Going with the H2 theme for the moment: 3DS sold 16.457.553 units of software in 2012. Switch should easily be able to beat that imo: it has Smash, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Mario tennis, Labo and maybe even a huge title like Pokémon in terms of new releases, Splatoon 2, MK8D, Kirby, BOTW and SMO in terms of already released big titles, and a slew of third party games (DQB2, Inazuma Eleven, Yo-kai Watch 4, Taiko) that will all be adding signficant numbers to the year's total. As a result, I really don't think there's any worry with regard to Switch and Japan: it's slow right now, and we all recognise that: however, for the whole year Switch looks plenty healthy in terms of lineup for the rest of the year, and as such I don't think we should be too worried when regarding the Q1/April momentum since there are very few relevant titles that have released in the past 3 months for the system (Kirby is the only relevant one).
To summarise this essay: Switch is behind in software and hardware at this moment, but looking at the reason why (third party support) and the fact that the release slate in the rest of this year is looking really strong, I don't think we should be all too worried about Switch and its software sales.
Edit: and this whole discussion ignores the digital market, where Switch has big titles like Minecraft and Rocket League released, as well as many other digital titles. It's not even outside the realm of possibility that Switch software is bigger than 3DS in Japan when accounting for those titles. Of course, plenty of those have a lower price, but it's still worth thinking about.
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