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Media Create Sales: Week 16, 2020 (Apr 13 - Apr 19)

Tbone5189

Tbone5189

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Mar 25, 2020
4,919
Lelouch0612 said:
It has been more than 2 months that the Switch is victim of shortages and despite that it is selling a record breaking pace.

No one knows the exact extent of the untapped demand right now, which makes it difficult to guess this year's sales (especially since the H2 line-up is unknown).

Still, probably being around 2.2m units sold in 4 months with shortages is very encouraging.
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300k from now intill the end of GW huh? :)

I agree, it's hard to determine sales for this year as why I'm holding back my prediction on it. It was on track of doing above 6mil but we don't know how long this will last for. 4.5mil+ is the floor though unless supply is really really horrible.

I also feel as though 2020 is going to be a filler kind of year. Not too much releases (after June) due to delays and hardware from AC being an issue. Y4 or even Y5 could be the peak. NSW will have a longevity especially cuz this is Nintendo only hardware they are supporting
 
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Big question mark is Monster Hunter imo. We know that this fiscal year should be huge for Capcom with 4 major titles planned (so RE3 in Q2 2020, RE8 in Q1 2021 + 2 major games).

Depending on whether Monster Hunter releases on Switch or not, the outcome will be vastly different so I am still not making any HW prediction for the year.
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Tbone5189 said:
yeah I kinda can't delete it o.O. I was just trying to post the top 10 best selling games in japan and I f it up lmao
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It would probably be helpful too to post the weekly sales of the game and how it compares to similar huge sellers that only had legs like this in the holiday season.

And also give us your estimate for digital split.
 
Kelanflyter

Kelanflyter

Banned
Nov 9, 2017
1,730
France
About lifespan, Nintendo already had a console that had an incredible lifespan. And it was an handheld
Anyone remember the gameboy ??
 
Tbone5189

Tbone5189

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Member
Mar 25, 2020
4,919
skittzo0413 said:
It would probably be helpful too to post the weekly sales of the game and how it compares to similar huge sellers that only had legs like this in the holiday season.

And also give us your estimate for digital split.
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I think I might of added to much to the OP already lol. for digital split First year it should be roughly 2.8mil and retail 5.5mil

mazi said:
that IS bold. i think 7 or 8 is doable tho.


click the gear (last icon in the toolbar) in edit mode and then you can delete it.
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got it. 7 is guaranteed :P
 
Oregano

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
Joseki said:
Nintendo tried to support 3DS is a very long streach. If a bunch of cheap outsourced ports/remasters are support then Capcom is a prime Switch supporter.

Also the idea of "long lifecycle" and Vita in the same sentence is quite funny in general. Vita never got any 3rd party support that really mattered sales wise except for Minecraft.

The closest it ever got in recent times to "big" 3rd party support was Catherine: Full Body from ATLUS. An expanded port of a last gen game that sold 7.6k FW.

Even Persona 5 skipped the Vita.
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Hence my comment about Nintendo having to be able to execute on it. They aimed to extend the 3DS' life but clearly were not able to dedicate the resources to do so.
fiendcode said:
I don't really understand why you're using Vita as an example of late cycle major publisher support? I mean it got some but even compared to 3DS it didn't really come out ahead at all when you look at what both actually received. Post Switch support from both for the Big 5:

Bandai Namco 3DS
  • Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X
  • Neko-Tomo
  • Pro Yakyuu Famista Climax
  • Tamagotchi no Puchi Puchi Omisechi: Ninki no Omise Atsume Maseta
Bandai Namco Vita
  • Accel World vs. Sword Art Online: Millennium Twilight
  • Digimon Story: Cyber Sleuth - Hacker's Memory
  • Gintama Ranbu
  • IDOLiSH7 Twelve Fantasia!
  • Super Robot Taisen X
  • Tsukitomo: Tsukiuta 12 Memories

Capcom 3DS
  • Apollo Justice: Ace Attorney
  • Dai Gyakuten Saiban 2: Naruhodou Ryuunosuke no Kakugo
  • Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate
Capcom Vita
  • lol

Konami 3DS
  • 100% Pascal Sensei: Kanpeki Paint Bombers
  • PriPri Chi-chan! PriPri DecoRoom!
Konami Vita
  • Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu 2018
  • Pro Yakyuu Spirits 2019

Sega 3DS
  • Etrian Mystery Dungeon 2
  • Etrian Odyssey Nexus
  • Persona Q2: New Cinema Labyrinth
  • Radiant Historia: Perfect Chronology
  • Shin Megami Tensei: Strange Journey Redux
Sega Vita
  • Catherine: Full Body
  • Persona 3: Dancing in Moonlight
  • Persona 5: Dancing in Starlight
  • Toaru Majutsu no Virtual-On

Square Enix 3DS
  • Dragon Quest (digital only)
  • Dragon Quest II: Luminaries of the Legendary Line (digital only)
  • Dragon Quest III: The Seeds of Salvation (digital only)
  • Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age
  • Pictologica Final Fantasy (digital only)
Square Enix Vita
  • Itadaki Street: Dragon Quest & Final Fantasy 30th Anniversary
  • Romancing SaGa 3 (digital only)
  • Secret of Mana

I think it's fair to question Nintendo's ability to extend Switch's lifecycle outside the 5-6 year norm, which is something they haven't really done with their successful post millennium consoles (GBA, DS, Wii, 3DS). Before that though they did do it, as the standard really (FC, GB, SFC).

I think the "3rd party issue" is a less pressing component of that though because, unlike most/all of Nintendo's previous consoles, Switch is fully looped into multiplatform development and gets heavy mid tier, niche and indie/doujin support. Switch will be getting 3rd party releases for 5+ more years and on the whole it's late cycle support will look a hell of a lot better than Vita or 3DS.
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It's not about a direct comparison between Vita and 3DS. It's about the fact that Vita shouldn't have been getting games 7 years after launch at all, it's an abject failure. The time for publishers to ditch the platform was 2014, around the same time Sony did.
 
Zedark

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
10M seems likely to me, 12M is up in the air imo. The Pokémon record is as good as dead, though (unless you would pedantically want the comparison to be retail vs. Retail, which would not be a reasonable demand).
 
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
So if I understand the recent CNET right, they are planning to support Animal Crossing with free updates for at least 2/3 years.
 
ΑGITΩ

ΑGITΩ

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
695
I think Digital sales are much higher than others anticipate. ACNH is one of the few games I chose to go digital because i know ill check on it daily, and dont feel like cartridge swapping, same for my wife and the majority of my friends.
Quarantine will also boost Digital sales as well.

So sure, ill bite, i can see it doing those numbers in Japan alone.
 
Tbone5189

Tbone5189

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Member
Mar 25, 2020
4,919
Forgot to post this week....

3DS vs NSW

-2020 Q0 Gap 3311k
-2020 Q1 Gap 2302k

W??: 3DS // NSW / Gap

W14: 31.7k / 154.6k [2179k]
W15: 24.0k / 25.3k [2178k]
W16: 22.4k / 27.8k [2173k]
W17: 34.0k
W18: 39.6k
W19: 40.1k
W20: 25.4k
W21: 25.0k
W22: 24.5k
W23: 36.7k
W24: 29.5k
W25: 25.9k
W26: 26.6k
Q2 : 373.5k vs 207.7k


And DS..... (DS has 1extra quarter for Y4Q2 comparisons)

DS vs NSW

-2020 Q0 Gap 9790k
-2020 Q1 Gap 9139k

W??: DS // NSW / Gap

W14: 55.2k / 154.6k [9040k]
W15: 47.2k / 25.3k [9062k]
W16: 44.6k / 27.8k [9079k]
W17: 42.4k
W18: 52.5k
W19: 51.2k
W20: 34.9k
W21: 37.4k
W22: 38.4k
W23: 35.0k
W24: 39.2k
W25: 36.6k
W26: 48.9k

Q2 : 563.5k vs 207.7k
 
Dekuman

Dekuman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,047
Based on what im reading 8-9 million finish in Japan is a strong possibility, so if its 8, 9, 10, 11 or 12, doesn't seem that significant. It will end at a very high number.
 
daybreak

daybreak

Member
Feb 28, 2018
2,420
Considering the Switch has sold ~13 million units in 3 years in Japan...no.

It'll end up somewhere around ~6.5-7 million, likely.
 

ZSaberLink

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,678
The ridiculous Switch expectations are getting a little long in the tooth, given it's literally the whole thread now. Switch is doing well right now because it finally got its biggest title, Animal Crossing. Its sales are also being helped by a crazy situation with Covid where it's generally encouraged to stay home (even if in JP they aren't quite abiding by it). Sales were insane for 3DS in 2012-2013 thanks to Animal Crossing's launch as well, even though it was also the holidays in 2012. I do expect Animal Crossing to do pretty well and possibly somewhat better than NL, but anything saying "it'll outsell Pokemon R/G" or sell 10M is just too overoptimistic. Same thing with thinking the Switch can suddenly outsell the DS. It's been 6 weeks, let's see the effect of Animal Crossing all year. It's still quite possible that demand gets satiated at some fairly high # (say 6M) and then its sales and HW sales drop to more normal numbers.

The video game sales market is worse than it was even in 2012-2013, although Nintendo may benefit from the consolidation of consoles there. We aren't going to suddenly hit DS hardware numbers when the population who plays games is even smaller, the population iirc is even older now, and the console is much more expensive atm (it's quite possible we don't get many price cuts if any).
 
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Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
8,079
JJConrad said:
You're not pushing breaks... you're pushing collapse. Perhaps wait until the Switch isn't on track to sell 8 million in a year, before you start predicting it'll sell less than half that next year. People also jumped on (I think it was) Nuclear Muffin a few weeks ago for making similar doomsday predictions about the PS5. His prediction at least had some points supporting it. Your prediction is just you trying to be contrary.
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The switch isn't on track to sell 8 million though. I don't care what points he had supporting it right now predicting the PS5 to struggle to sell half of the PS4 or less just seems ludicrous.

Tbone5189 said:
yeah I'm going optimistic here, 28mil isdefinitely the safe bet, but some still not sure yet if NSW will surpass 3ds, but that's only going by past declines which NSW won't have. Again NSW Y4-6 > Y1-3
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Crazy predictions and expectations are one thing but the switch selling 28 million isn't a safe bet.

Also I can't help but feel like this thread is turning into people coming up with the craziest predictions possible to be able to look like some prediction genius when one of those predictions come true.

Lelouch0612 said:
Big question mark is Monster Hunter imo. We know that this fiscal year should be huge for Capcom with 4 major titles planned (so RE3 in Q2 2020, RE8 in Q1 2021 + 2 major games).

Depending on whether Monster Hunter releases on Switch or not, the outcome will be vastly different so I am still not making any HW prediction for the year.
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MH is a huge wildcard IMO. If a MH switch actually happens that would have a huge impact on HW sales IMO.
 
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
ZSaberLink said:
The ridiculous Switch expectations are getting a little long in the tooth, given it's literally the whole thread now. Switch is doing well right now because it finally got its biggest title, Animal Crossing. Its sales are also being helped by a crazy situation with Covid where it's generally encouraged to stay home (even if in JP they aren't quite abiding by ti). Sales were insane for 3DS in 2012-2013 thanks to Animal Crossing's launch as well, even though it was also the holidays in 2012. I do expect Animal Crossing to do pretty well and possibly somewhat better than NL, but anything saying "it'll outsell Pokemon R/G" or sell 10M is just too overoptimistic. Same thing with thinking the Switch can suddenly outsell the DS. It's been 6 weeks, let's see the effect of Animal Crossing all year. It's still quite possible that demand gets satiated at some fairly high # (say 6M) and then its sales and HW sales drop to more normal numbers.

The video game sales market is worse than it was even in 2012-2013, although Nintendo may benefit from the consolidation of consoles there. We aren't going to suddenly hit DS hardware numbers when the population who plays games is even smaller, the population iirc is even older now, and the console is much more expensive atm (it's quite possible we don't get many price cuts if any).
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Regarding New Horizons, the current expectation is that it'll outsell NL by the end of June (so 6m shipped by then).

I know it sounds insane but Golden Week is right around the corner and the game didn't drop this week. It is selling 280k right now despite Switch shortages limiting its potential. Just try to estimate its sales post-Golden Week and you'll see for yourself why 6m by June is such a safe bet.

DS talk now is still way too premature. 3DS however seems to beatable for various reasons.
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
8,079
Lelouch0612 said:
Regarding New Horizons, the current expectation is that it'll outsell NL by the end of June (so 6m shipped by then).

I know it sounds insane but Golden Week is right around the corner and the game didn't drop this week. It is selling 280k right now despite Switch shortages limiting its potential. Just try to estimate its sales post-Golden Week and you'll see for yourself why 6m by June is such a safe bet.

DS talk now is still way too premature. 3DS however seems to beatable for various reasons.
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Yeah with the trajectory the switch is on I think it looks set to surpass the 3DS. Talk of 30+ million or even matching the DS are totally baseless right now IMO and are more just wishful thinking at this stage. There is little to base that on right now.
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
The craziest thing about this prediction is that in all honesty it's really not that crazy. This is one of the leggiest franchises in existence and it's already surpassed 5m (incl digital) less than a month after launch. I think NL went on to sell 7x its first week numbers, if NH does that (it won't) that would be over 20M.


Winterreise said:
Considering the Switch has sold ~13 million units in 3 years in Japan...no.

It'll end up somewhere around ~6.5-7 million, likely.
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OPs including digital, it should be at or past 6m within 2 months.


Edit: just realized I somehow posted this in the wrong thread. Whoops!
 
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Tbone5189

Tbone5189

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Mar 25, 2020
4,919
Speaking of digital split, let's say W17 holds 200k and W18/19 sell combine 700k for GW. That'll put it at 4500k.

Retail/Digital split...

10% 5000k (500k Digital)
15% 5275k (800k Digital)
20% 5625k (1125k Digital)
25% 6000k (1500k Digital) <<< My guess
30% 6425k (1925k Digital)
35% 6925k (2425k Digital)
40% 7500k (3000k Digital)
45% 8175k (3675k Digital)
50% 9000k (4500k Digital)

In the beginning sure digital probably was around 35-40% but it'll drop over time with retail sales being explosive
 
Sesha

Sesha

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,863
Life time predictions are boring. You probably ain't gonna be here if it does make it. Make Y1 and/or Y2 predictions.
 

ZSaberLink

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,678
Lelouch0612 said:
Regarding New Horizons, the current expectation is that it'll outsell NL by the end of June (so 6m shipped by then).

I know it sounds insane but Golden Week is right around the corner and the game didn't drop this week. It is selling 280k right now despite Switch shortages limiting its potential. Just try to estimate its sales post-Golden Week and you'll see for yourself why 6m by June is such a safe bet.

DS talk now is still way too premature. 3DS however seems to beatable for various reasons.
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Without knowing the approximate digital sales (which we'll know in 2 weeks hopefully), isn't it kind of hard to say it's going to ship 6M in JP by then? Yeh I think Switch has a shot at outselling the 3DS in JP, which would be fantastic. I'm not so sure it's as guaranteed as folks are making it seem here though. If anything, the 3DS had decent legs in JP imo and it's still TBD that it'll happen for Switch (its price and how its sales have gone are good signs though).
 
CaviarMeths

CaviarMeths

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
10,655
Western Canada
Yeah I don't see it selling that high, but this is one of the ones where we're gonna see a lot of people continuously revising their predictions and acting like their serious lowball predictions were "reasonable at the time." Much like the Switch itself. It'll sell <target it's on track to hit in less than a year> and that's it!
 
Tbone5189

Tbone5189

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Mar 25, 2020
4,919
ZSaberLink said:
Without knowing the approximate digital sales (which we'll know in 2 weeks hopefully), isn't it kind of hard to say it's going to ship 6M in JP by then? Yeh I think Switch has a shot at outselling the 3DS in JP, which would be fantastic. I'm not so sure it's as guaranteed as folks are making it seem here though. If anything, the 3DS had decent legs in JP imo and it's still TBD that it'll happen for Switch (its price and how its sales have gone are good signs though).
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Nothing is ever guaranteed but if in the next 3 weeks AC sells 900k (200k this week and 700k combine for both GW) that would put it at 4.5mil retail


Retail/Digital split... (4500k retail

10% 5000k (500k Digital)
15% 5275k (800k Digital)
20% 5625k (1125k Digital)
25% 6000k (1500k Digital)

then it has W20-26 left which could sell an avg of 65k weekly price which would put retail at close to 5mil retail by end of June
 
jnWake

jnWake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,108
Unrealistic expectations followed by massive disappointment is pretty much the entire life of Switch on Media Create threads.
 
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
jnWake said:
Unrealistic expectations followed by massive disappointment is pretty much the entire life of Switch on Media Create threads.
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While it might have happened sometimes on a weekly basis ("oh Switch didn't crack 300k for that week, so disappointed" ect), in terms of long-term performance, it is beating most people's expectations on the hardware and especially software front.

Make no mistake, Animal Crossing is blowing everyone's expectations so far, we are pretty much in uncharted territory now which lead to a huge range of prediction.
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,684
jnWake said:
Unrealistic expectations followed by massive disappointment is pretty much the entire life of Switch on Media Create threads.
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Heh, that's true. "This time Switch hardware sales will explode for sure." Which was immediately followed by lower sales. Weirdly enough I think for AC hardware sales would have indeed exploded (and they actually did until shortages hit).
 
perfectchaos007

perfectchaos007

It's Happening
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Oct 25, 2017
12,297
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Chinese manufacturers should be back to full strength soon since most of their country is reopened right?
Hopefully that means more Switch stock in the near future
 
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