Media Create Sales: Week 26, 2019 (Jun 24 - Jun 30)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
I was thinking more since the post was quoted and commented on to begin with. I think the guy is wrong in several of his points, but unless he has an agenda, i think its fair enough to adress those points.
Dude had to be reminded several times prior that Switch sales remain up YoY and now he just says it's "barely" above YoY when it's clearly more substantial than that. He ain't budging.
I'm not buying the game myself because of the Pokédex fiasco, but I agree with you that I'll probably be in a small minority of people. I will say this: I'm not sure if Sw/Sh will sell as well as Sun/Moon because of a few reasons:
1) Sun and Moon came out in the year when Pokémon Go exploded on the scene and in the year when Pokémon had a big anniversary celebration going on. The hype for new Pokémon games was insane back then. I don't think the general hype for Sw/Sh can come close to matching that. Even something like the success of Detective pikachu movie cannot match the impact of Pokemon Go
2) Price will be a factor. This could obviously be helped by a Switch Mini but 60 for a game is still a lot (especially for a younger audience)
3) while I agree that the Pokédex controversy will probably not tank game sales, it is the first Pokémon game I can remember that has mixed-to-bad word of mouth. Even those who don't have an issue with the Pokédex might have issues with the underwhelming visuals and game concepts
Not sure if any of these factors will significantly affect sales (especially in japan - since this is the Japanese sales thread), but I just thought I'd give those who don't follow the series some insight into the series (as someone who's been following the series very closely since Gen 5)
It will impact sells. You're forgetting that many hardcore fans usually get both copies of the games but now some might not get them at all.
The issue is mostly with Home, not the games.
Home should be impacted signifiantly, the games not so much. It was the #2 most preordered game for Gamestop after E3.
As someone who is a long time fan who wants the games to sell poorly so that Gamefreak realize they have to change, I just don't expect it to happen sadly. The brand is just too strong with a huge number of younger and casual fans who don't care about the Pokédex fiasco. Although who really knows what will happen till we get raw sales data later in the year. I'm particularly interested in how it performs in Japan given how poorly Let's Go did at launch. (That's why I brought this up in the MC thread)
Thing is that there are other options which is what the 3ds lacked. In 2016, Sun and Moon was all there was for the 3ds during the holidays, but now we doom eternal, samurai shodown, luigis mansion 3, etc....
Pokemon always had a specific time period to itself during the 3ds era and I think that's one advantage Gamefreak lost by Nintendo only having one piece of hardware on the market.
I think I have to disagree as I don't think announcing it that early was a smart move. Home doesn't release until 2 months after launch (maybe even longer?) anyways and by the point it releases most people will be long done with the game and move on to other things.
The 2016 3DS holiday line up included Mario Maker 3DS, Yokai Watch 3, and a rerelease of New Leaf with an expansion.
Hell everything else you mentioned aren't even contenders to a Pokemon game, except Luigi, but that's not gonna release in November probably. The people who are buying Pokemon games would be buying Pokemon games regardless of what else is releasing. Majority of people that are mad about the Pokemon transfer thing isn't gonna be all Oh ho ho well I guess I'll buy DOOM ETERNAL on Switch instead.
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We should know by now that especially when it comes to Nintendo most "problems" get overblown out of any sensible proportion and how concern trolls like to jump on the bandwagon of any "controversy" to make it seen bigger than it actually is. Just look at Smash Bros. with the Melee competetive scene focus as an example. Most people will look at what the game actually offers instead of what's supposedly missing. The biggest hurdle is Switch hardware reaching even more the kids demographic, since its price is notably higher than previous systems.
This is certainly the case with me. I've bought a DS and 3DS in the past only to play Pokémon. So it's a bit of a surprise to me that Pokémon is the only game this yeah that I know I'm not buying for sure. I'd rather spend spend that money on DQXIS (played VII and VIII on 3DS) or Astral Chain. But again, I'm probably in the minority on this
4 months out isn't a good measure of word of mouth as it can change as soon as a new trailer or two releases
Yeah this could be the case. But I'm pretty sure they've shown us the two big new features of these games in Dynamax/Max Raid battles (which has had a mixed reception, especially with the removal of Megas) and the Wild area (which has been pretty widely mocked for its graphical quality, even by those who don't care about the Pokédex). There's some more stuff that's in leak territory that's not going to be without controversy either. They're also not going to visually overhaul the game in 4 months so people are not going to change their feelings on that either. In fact, when they release the list of who made it into Galar and who didn't, it will make the Pokédex fiasco real in the eyes of many more who didn't care before (but might if their favorites get the cut)
When the Switch hardware can survive all the doom posts (too expensive, not powerful enough, "no gaemz", paid online and many more) pre-release and become a huge success then one controversy surely won't kill the sales of Sword and Shield. And for your last sentence I think that the Switch Mini will help to bridge the gap between hardware and the younger audience because I agree that currently the Switch is too expensive for the younger demographic.
I feel like a lot of the mockery of the game's graphics only happened after the fact, and a majority of it is just riding on the hate train. A day before the Pokedex and Pokemon limit was revealed, people were pretty up and up on the Wild Area.
Yeah, and that's why imo the pokédex fiasco won't register with the general population: I don't believe most people are attached to having pokémon from previous generations available in full. Considering the reception of the Wild Area was good until the pokédex fiasco (where people who considered the Wild Area to be a step in the right direction had this generally positive impression overtaken by the corner-cutting presented by the removal of Pokémon), I don't think the games will be impacted a lot.
I see. I cant remember seeing him discussing it in the Media Create threads before, so my initial question was going by that it was a fresh post in that regards. If he has posted similar things before and there is a discussion history there, and the same points are still being brought up, then i understand Vinnk's reply more if that is taken into account :)
What do people think the price of the Switch Mini will be? I can see it being 5k yen cheaper than the normal Switch version. In that case, would that make it cheap enough for the younger demographic, or at what price point would that be?
If it's a Switch with no dock included and attached controls, I can see the price immediately going down 5k at the very least. I can also see them bundling that with online or a minor game discount.
Wasn't the dockless Switch sold on the Nintendo website already 5k less?
I expect them to sell it for lower if there is neither dock, neither attached controls (and of course without power supply)
This is exactly what happened and why it shouldn't be given a big importance sales-wise.
I didnt think about the docking station. If thats not included, i can see there be more than a 5k yen pricedrop, yeah.
Another thing i didnt think about initially is that the current model might also get a pricedrop. I was first thinking that Nintendo might not want to have too big of a price gap between the Switch Mini and the current model (i assume that the Switch Mini wont be a replacement model), but if they do a pricedrop on the current model, the price gap will also be smaller.
If he or she comes back to the topic and expresses interest in actually having a conversation, I would be happy to break down the parts of their post. But since they made similar statements in a previous thread and then left when corrected I don't have faith that I would not be wasting my time.
I have been in this situation MANY times before and 9 times out of 10 I will write a big, long, detailed response and it will either be totally ignored or the poster will focus on one specific point while ignoring the rest. If this poster demonstrates good faith in wanting to know more I will invest the time. But what is now just a series of hot takes does not inspire the confidence I need to use my already limited time.
I engaged with a lot of nonsense this month with no impact on the posters. I could have been doing better things. So yeah. I'm out.
A switch mini with no detachable joy-con, and no included dock, should be sold 20K yens or less. Anything above would be highway robbery in my opinion.
Dropping the current Switch to 25K yens would be nice, though I don't expect it even if a pro model releases.
Dropping the current Switch to 25K yens would be nice, though I don't expect it even if a pro model releases.
If nothing else, the spicy hot takes that'll inevitably come once S/S are down massively on S/M in the UK when we get that data first will be... Well they'll be hot I'll say that much. Like a Cyniquill with Blaze activated.
Apart from that I have no clue how well S/S will do.
Apart from that I have no clue how well S/S will do.
Thats fair enough, i understand that situation. I dont know if you saw my previous reply to SinCityAssassin, but i asked the question thinking that it was a fresh comment in that regards, because i cant remember seeing MilesTeg being much active in the Media Create threads before. So with that in mind, i was just wondering why not adress the points instead :) I didnt think about that there could have been a previous discussion history based around the same subject(s), and then the same subject(s) are being brought up again, so if thats the case, i understand your point. Thanks for the answer :)
And generally speaking, i agree with you that it can be somewhat tiresome to write longer posts as a reply to someone in a discussion and then not getting any reply back.
I'm thinking that a price difference between 20k and 30k yen might be too much. I'm not sure if the general public would see the docking station and detachable controllers as an extra 10k value, but i might be wrong.
17k likes, 3k dislikes so far. A few more good trailers like this one and most people will have forgot about the "controversy".
Edit: 25k likes and 6k dislikes now. The gap widens.
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as I said (here or some other thread), ripping off the bandaid soon was a good idea.
Haha fair enough
Exactly, the Switch is by far the most expensive system mainline Pokémon's been on, and that shouldn't be ignored. But when people want to project their feelings, it doesn't matter to them.
I totally forgot about that, yeah they won't open as big as SM, and invariably you'll have irregular posters coming out of the woodwork dropping their hot takes. Happens whenever a Nintendo game doesn't sell according to an arbitrary set of expectations, look at this thread as it is.
Sales for Switch are up around 300K year over year in Japan, however, in recent weeks, last years numbers have outmatched this years. Even with Mario Maker 2 launch, sales only increased 10K over last year. I'm unsure what games have released around this time span last year though.
The point is, if Nintendo had released more titles in the first half, the momentum from Smash Bros Ultimate would have paid off even more. It's obvious that Ultimate is a rare game that can carry a console. It's sold 15 million on a user base of 35 million in only 7 months.
It's also equally obvious that that momentum has finally worn off, seeing as Switch has struggled to match last years numbers in recent weeks. If there had been more releases, the Switch would have been selling significantly more year over year worldwide. Only needed maybe one or two significant first party releases in the first half.
20 million for Pokémon S&S should be obvious considering it's releasing in Switches third holiday season as the big title for the console this year. Smash Bros will get there, Mario Kart 8D will get there, it's possible Odyssey gets there as well. Also, considering possible hardware price drops and remodels coming soon should spike momentum for the console in the holiday season.
The price for Switch is too high if you consider that rumors of remodels have surfaced months ago as well as the fact that the console had some promotions last holiday season.
Anyway, I'm struggling to think of any scenario where 40-60% is a good initial sell through for a Mario game. Typically Nintendo is pretty accurate when it comes to predicting initial shipment figures. That means that the game only sold roughly half its initial shipment. As a guess, it will take roughly 4 weeks to sell through. I would guess that next weeks sales are sub 100K. Certainly with the way most first party titles exceed expectations on Switch, these sales are disappointing.
Even though Switch is a successful console, it's nowhere near DS numbers. Considering Nintendo only has one active console right now instead of two like in the past, sales should be higher. However, when you only release one first party game in six months and it's Yoshi, it's understandable.
Looking forward will be interesting to see if Nintendo has a 3DS successor lined up for this year, seeing as the new releases have dried up. Typically when software dries up for a hardware, Nintendo is planning on releasing a new one. The fact that Switch can act as a handheld doesn't necessarily mean Nintendo won't be releasing a successor to 3DS. They have shelf space at retailers dedicated to Switch and 3DS. With 3DS all but dead, Nintendo is most likely planning on a new console to replace it.
It might be unexpected for some people but in my opinion, a new platform launch will be coming in the next 18 months for Nintendo. A pure handheld makes perfect sense as Nintendo can easily port Switch software to it. They can take their best selling Switch games and port them to a handheld and have a very successful launch. Nintendo's handheld consoles have thrived on old software in the past, there's no reason why a new one would be any different.
The point is, if Nintendo had released more titles in the first half, the momentum from Smash Bros Ultimate would have paid off even more. It's obvious that Ultimate is a rare game that can carry a console. It's sold 15 million on a user base of 35 million in only 7 months.
It's also equally obvious that that momentum has finally worn off, seeing as Switch has struggled to match last years numbers in recent weeks. If there had been more releases, the Switch would have been selling significantly more year over year worldwide. Only needed maybe one or two significant first party releases in the first half.
20 million for Pokémon S&S should be obvious considering it's releasing in Switches third holiday season as the big title for the console this year. Smash Bros will get there, Mario Kart 8D will get there, it's possible Odyssey gets there as well. Also, considering possible hardware price drops and remodels coming soon should spike momentum for the console in the holiday season.
The price for Switch is too high if you consider that rumors of remodels have surfaced months ago as well as the fact that the console had some promotions last holiday season.
Anyway, I'm struggling to think of any scenario where 40-60% is a good initial sell through for a Mario game. Typically Nintendo is pretty accurate when it comes to predicting initial shipment figures. That means that the game only sold roughly half its initial shipment. As a guess, it will take roughly 4 weeks to sell through. I would guess that next weeks sales are sub 100K. Certainly with the way most first party titles exceed expectations on Switch, these sales are disappointing.
Even though Switch is a successful console, it's nowhere near DS numbers. Considering Nintendo only has one active console right now instead of two like in the past, sales should be higher. However, when you only release one first party game in six months and it's Yoshi, it's understandable.
Looking forward will be interesting to see if Nintendo has a 3DS successor lined up for this year, seeing as the new releases have dried up. Typically when software dries up for a hardware, Nintendo is planning on releasing a new one. The fact that Switch can act as a handheld doesn't necessarily mean Nintendo won't be releasing a successor to 3DS. They have shelf space at retailers dedicated to Switch and 3DS. With 3DS all but dead, Nintendo is most likely planning on a new console to replace it.
It might be unexpected for some people but in my opinion, a new platform launch will be coming in the next 18 months for Nintendo. A pure handheld makes perfect sense as Nintendo can easily port Switch software to it. They can take their best selling Switch games and port them to a handheld and have a very successful launch. Nintendo's handheld consoles have thrived on old software in the past, there's no reason why a new one would be any different.
Hardware sales don't matter---revenues do. And Nintendo is earning much more than during 3DS+Wii U. DS and Wii were an anomaly but numbers might get closer than you think. Anyway, Nintendo is managing much better its ecosystem, branching out IPs, focusing on digital and releasing games on mobile.
Looking only at installed base in 2019 when judging a company's performance is like cooking a pizza using only flour.
It has been a long time since the "now Nintendo has only one platform so it should exceed the combination of the 2 former ones to be considered a success" argument.
Also the come back of the fabled "3ds successor"...
I'm sorry but I'm really face palming right now...
Also the come back of the fabled "3ds successor"...
I'm sorry but I'm really face palming right now...
Try looking at the sales of Pokémon games post gen 2. Especially on DS. They have remained stable across systems. Saying 20 million is obvious means you don't understand this series sales.
Someone decides shipment in Japan and it ain't Nintendo. And as people pointed out the reasoning is it will continue to sell.
Why do people bother comparing to the DS, aka one of the best selling consoles of all time? The other Nintendo portables are much more comparable.
They'll just make a smaller switch which will double as a 3DS successor because it's cheap and smaller.
New platform is nonsense as is the notion that "software releases are drying up" (???)
DS was a lot cheaper than a Switch, so I can't believe this user is claiming this when the Switch is a kind of anomaly, because it's selling very good at Japan and world wide despite its price. It's performing better than 3DS without any kind of price cut.
I don't think I can really respond to everything you put in the post there because that is a fucking wall, but I can try on a few things.
The DS was a one-time monster that can't be matched due to the rise of mobile gaming in Japan and to a lesser extent elsewhere. Making 1-to-1 comparisons with the DS and Wii-Era isn't going to work because of that. The DS was also between $100-$150 (the Switch is 2-3 times more expensive) and software was sold at a cheaper price. Many successful games like Brain Training were sold at value pricing from the start as well.
We already talked about why the Mario Maker opening sell-through doesn't matter. The game will sell for the whole year, the opening is barely relevant in the long run.
Pokemon Sw/Sh should sell over 15 million, but the series is basically on a yearly release schedule and doesn't have the continued legs that will benefit games like Smash and Mario Kart that only have one release per cycle.
So what if Nintendo is "losing momentum" right now with the Switch. They have a strong second half and heavily rumored planned revisions while also being ahead of last year significantly to this point.
You are making a mountain out of a molehill. Nothing is worrying yet.
Why wouldn't you compare the DS to Switch? There are certain titles on Switch that have sold more on Switch than any other Nintendo console.
Odyssey is the best selling 3D Mario game ever. Unless you combine Mario 64 N64 sales and DS Mario 64 sales.
Breath of The Wild is the best selling Zelda title of all time.
Smash Bros Ultimate is the best selling Smash title of all time.
Why should Pokémon S&S be any different? Launching in November with new Switch hardware models releasing in Switches third holiday season, there's absolutely no reason to think the game won't be topping the charts.
I haven't said that the Switch sales are worrying. Only that sales have slowed due to lack of new releases on Nintendo's part. The Switch could have reached higher potential if it wasn't for a significant drought in the first six months of this year. The fact that sales are higher year over year regardless is a testament to the strength of Smash Bros Ultimate and the Switch as a product, as well as the strength of its already released software.
And, I don't particularly care what people think about Mario Maker 2 sales here. Find me another Mario game that launched to 40-60% sell through.
Odyssey is the best selling 3D Mario game ever. Unless you combine Mario 64 N64 sales and DS Mario 64 sales.
Breath of The Wild is the best selling Zelda title of all time.
Smash Bros Ultimate is the best selling Smash title of all time.
Why should Pokémon S&S be any different? Launching in November with new Switch hardware models releasing in Switches third holiday season, there's absolutely no reason to think the game won't be topping the charts.
I haven't said that the Switch sales are worrying. Only that sales have slowed due to lack of new releases on Nintendo's part. The Switch could have reached higher potential if it wasn't for a significant drought in the first six months of this year. The fact that sales are higher year over year regardless is a testament to the strength of Smash Bros Ultimate and the Switch as a product, as well as the strength of its already released software.
And, I don't particularly care what people think about Mario Maker 2 sales here. Find me another Mario game that launched to 40-60% sell through.
It's almost as if Nintendo has released handhelds in the past with ports of older titles.
Maybe we should go back in time and not release Mario 64 on DS. Perhaps we should not port the old Mario platformers to Game Boy Advance.
Seeing as the Switch can operate as a handheld, it should be possible for Nintendo to release a new handheld that can play software that was released on Switch.
You're right though. Let's see exactly what the Switch Mini is as a product before jumping to conclusions.