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djinnEXE

Member
Oct 25, 2017
450
I can finally comment after a few days. I'm glad M+R is off to a great start. I always thought it would do well (predicted a 50K opening) and it will have some awesome legs.

MHW releases, can't wait for next weeks numbers

Edit: Does anyone find DBFZ's launch very... muted.
 

RebelDeux

Member
Nov 20, 2017
180
Kirby will attract the little kids and some young/mature ones if the levels are nicely designed.

I like Kirby and might buy it, but for $60 full price I expect a nicely fleshed game full of content, not something I can finish easily.

At least we have that until DK and then until Yoshi in July/August?
 

Wise

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,228
I can finally comment after a few days. I'm glad M+R is off to a great start. I always thought it would do well (predicted a 50K opening) and it will have some awesome legs.

MHW releases, can't wait for next weeks numbers

Edit: Does anyone find DBFZ's launch very... muted.
Not out in Japan until February I think
 

casiopao

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
5,044
Kirby will firstly attract Kirby enthuaist before anything lol. Kirby fanboys and gals is easily one of the most stable fanbase for the series.

Then, young girls, OL and children will help push da Kirby long long legs.^_^
 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
I can finally comment after a few days. I'm glad M+R is off to a great start. I always thought it would do well (predicted a 50K opening) and it will have some awesome legs.

MHW releases, can't wait for next weeks numbers

Edit: Does anyone find DBFZ's launch very... muted.

https://s.famitsu.com/schedule/


Comes out on the first, but don't expect much fanfare. It's not going to pull any amazing numbers.
 

Encephalon

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,888
Japan
So it sounds like the 800k predictions might not be too far off? Not every store is selling out, but some stores are getting restocks. Maybe 900k?
 
Oct 26, 2017
13,657
It's funny that both Kirby (March 16th) and PriPara (March 22nd) are coming out very soon, so that's two games for the female audience (someone said Kirby would attract female fans earlier):

51dXL6sXjpL.jpg
61p8Xid0WGL.jpg


Wonder if this was at all planned.
 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
So it sounds like the 800k predictions might not be too far off? Not every store is selling out, but some stores are getting restocks. Maybe 900k?
The beta was a good idea to build up interest for people who already have PS4s, however not being in portable takes a bit away from the viral aspect and I suspect will contribute to shorter legs. It's a lot harder to get someone to come over to your house to see and try the game to convince them to buy than handing them a PSP or 3DS and letting them have a go.
 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
For Nintendo published games yes, but third parties a few others such as Skyrim, Lego and Rayman. Nothing big though.
 

CeroMiedo

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,337
The beta was a good idea to build up interest for people who already have PS4s, however not being in portable takes a bit away from the viral aspect and I suspect will contribute to shorter legs. It's a lot harder to get someone to come over to your house to see and try the game to convince them to buy than handing them a PSP or 3DS and letting them have a go.
tbf MHW won't have much competition aside from a Bayonetta collection for a whole month,if the game has "it",its legs should be good
 

Encephalon

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,888
Japan
The beta was a good idea to build up interest for people who already have PS4s, however not being in portable takes a bit away from the viral aspect and I suspect will contribute to shorter legs. It's a lot harder to get someone to come over to your house to see and try the game to convince them to buy than handing them a PSP or 3DS and letting them have a go.

There's also the matter of accessibility to kids. I still get the feeling that the PS4 (like the PS3 before it) feels like a "luxury" item for many people, whereas Nintendo doesn't have the same image problem.
 

Vareon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,953
The beta was a good idea to build up interest for people who already have PS4s, however not being in portable takes a bit away from the viral aspect and I suspect will contribute to shorter legs. It's a lot harder to get someone to come over to your house to see and try the game to convince them to buy than handing them a PSP or 3DS and letting them have a go.

I don't think handing people a PSP or 3DS to try Monster Hunter is a good way to sell the game lol. But your point stands, seeing groups of people hunting in a public place is good for word of mouth. Still, after hearing 8-4 play podcast, it looks like Capcom is trying their very best at promoting MHW much more than the previous games so that'll help a lot.
 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
tbf MHW won't have much competition aside from a Bayonetta collection for a whole month,if the game has "it",its legs should be good
There is really no competition, Bayonetta and any other game Nintendo releases aren't really going for the same demo as MHW. As to MHW having 'it' not sure that's going to convince casuals to buy a TV, PS4, and subscription to PSN if they haven't already played a MH game and really really love the series.

There's also the matter of accessibility to kids. I still get the feeling that the PS4 (like the PS3 before it) feels like a "luxury" item for many people, whereas Nintendo doesn't have the same image problem.

Yeah, there is a huge price gap between the PS4 and Switch especially for children. If you are an adult with a TV and don't already have a PS4 it's not much of a problem, but while a child can with a little bit of effort save up for a handheld and game, buying a TV and PS4 just about triples or quadruples the price. Such a set up is also a pretty unlikely gift to get from parents as well.

I suspect MHW will be front loaded compared to the handheld entries.

I don't think handing people a PSP or 3DS to try Monster Hunter is a good way to sell the game lol. But your point stands, seeing groups of people hunting in a public place is good for word of mouth. Still, after hearing 8-4 play podcast, it looks like Capcom is trying their very best at promoting MHW much more than the previous games so that'll help a lot.

Maybe. There are a lot of ads.
 
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Encephalon

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,888
Japan
There is really no competition, Bayonetta and any other game Nintendo releases aren't really going for the same demo as MHW. As to MHW having 'it' not sure that's going to convince casuals to buy a TV, PS4, and subscription to PSN if they haven't already played a MH game and really really love the series.



Yeah, there is a huge price gap between the PS4 and Switch especially for children. If you are an adult with a TV and don't already have a PS4 it's not much of a problem, but while a child can with a little bit of effort save up for a handheld and game, buying a TV and PS4 just about triples or quadruples the price. Such a set up is also a pretty unlikely gift to get from parents as well.

I suspect MHW will be front loaded compared to the handheld entries.

You think that if kids want a PS4 they need an extra TV? I don't know about that.

I personally want to see MHW do well and would like to see it do somewhere between 1.2 and 1.5 million copies, but I don't know.
 

MoonFrog

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,969
Yeah, I think that is a good prediction (that MHW will be more front-loaded) but the next question is how much so?

I think MHW will have better legs than DQXI, for example, because it at least has multiplayer working in its favor.
 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
You think that if kids want a PS4 they need an extra TV? I don't know about that.

I personally want to see MHW do well and would like to see it do somewhere between 1.2 and 1.5 million copies, but I don't know.
I don't believe there are many children with TVs in their rooms. I don't think most parents want their kids hooking up a console to the TV either.

Sorry, what's OL? Ahaha
Office Ladies. Women who work in offices.
 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
Where do you think people played PS2 games? I'm pretty sure playing on the family TV has been pretty standard for decades.

That was like a (human) generation ago. TVs are very good for communal use, games that several family members can do together and enjoy. I don't think any parent wants their child bogarting the TV for hours hacking at monsters when they could be laughing together watching a variety show, cheering on their soccer of baseball team, or enjoying finding out about cuisine in 'remote' parts of Japan. I think attitudes about how a TV is to be used have been changing (and the general need of a TV too) and that may be in part due to how handhelds and smartphones and tablets have proliferated. It was even a big point about the benefits of the defunct Wii U (and probably one of the few points it got right).

This is just what I think, anecdotally, all my students play on handhelds. I think that has become the normal way of playing games regardless of being at home or not.

As to MHW selling, yeah, I easily see 1.2-1.5 lifetime. Don't think it will be able to cross 2 though.
 

Aters

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
7,948
I wonder how many Japanese households have TV because you guys make it sound like you need to buy a TV to go with your PS4.
 

Jon Carter

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,746
enjoying finding out about cuisine in 'remote' parts of Japan.

Is that a reference to Onigiri or are there several shows in Japan about discovering food from all over the country? That wouldn't surprise me, seeing as 90% of Japanese programs seem to be about food or one of the main characters owns a restaurant we see in every episode.
 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
I wonder how many Japanese households have TV because you guys make it sound like you need to buy a TV to go with your PS4.

https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/テレビ離れ

There is a major decline in ownership of TVs especially amongst younger generations. Other forms of entertainment, ways to get news, and streaming broadcasts to smart devices are taking its place at a rapid rate. It's as real a trend as the declining brith rate.

Is that a reference to Onigiri or are there several shows in Japan about discovering food from all over the country? That wouldn't surprise me, seeing as 90% of Japanese programs seem to be about food or one of the main characters owns a restaurant we see in every episode.

It's a very popular topic here. Learning about the unique food, culture, and sightseeing spots throughout Japan are very common things on TV.
 

CeroMiedo

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,337
I wonder how many Japanese households have TV because you guys make it sound like you need to buy a TV to go with your PS4.
I think the problem is more about whether those people really want to play tv games than whether those people have TVs or not,so far most of the main buyers of the game right now are probably high schoolers and male young adults.
There is really no competition, Bayonetta and any other game Nintendo releases aren't really going for the same demo as MHW. As to MHW having 'it' not sure that's going to convince casuals to buy a TV, PS4, and subscription to PSN if they haven't already played a MH game and really really love the series.
even if the games legs are actually short in the future,nothing is guaranteed right now,there is still a chance that the game actually makes it and have good legs
 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
I think the problem is more about whether those people really want to play tv games than whether those people have TVs or not,so far most of the main buyers of the game right now are probably high schoolers and male young adults.

even if the games legs are actually short in the future,nothing is guaranteed right now,there is still a chance that the game actually makes it and have good legs

You are completely right, it is going to be very hard to tell at the moment. We will have to wait and see late adopters respond.


I found an interesting document from the NHK, it's their interpretation of the data they did on a 2010 and 2015 survey about Television and other Media use. Luckily it is in English for those who would like to have a look.

https://www.nhk.or.jp/bunken/english/reports/pdf/report_16042101.pdf
 

Encephalon

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,888
Japan
That was like a (human) generation ago. TVs are very good for communal use, games that several family members can do together and enjoy. I don't think any parent wants their child bogarting the TV for hours hacking at monsters when they could be laughing together watching a variety show, cheering on their soccer of baseball team, or enjoying finding out about cuisine in 'remote' parts of Japan. I think attitudes about how a TV is to be used have been changing (and the general need of a TV too) and that may be in part due to how handhelds and smartphones and tablets have proliferated. It was even a big point about the benefits of the defunct Wii U (and probably one of the few points it got right).

This is just what I think, anecdotally, all my students play on handhelds. I think that has become the normal way of playing games regardless of being at home or not.

As to MHW selling, yeah, I easily see 1.2-1.5 lifetime. Don't think it will be able to cross 2 though.

I'm sorry, I'm really not convinced by this. I think you're picking up on things that are real, but that the conclusion that families would not let their kids buy a PS4 and use it on the family TV is a farfetched one. At least to any widespread degree. Edit: It's probably a hell of an incentive for parents to buy their kids a Switch over a PS4, though.

I mean, does the very notion of kids having their own TVs even exist here? I'm pretty sure I've been asked if "it's true that that happens in 外国."
 
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KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
I'm sorry, I'm really not convinced by this. I think you're picking up on things that are real, but that the conclusion that families would not let their kids buy a PS4 and use it on the family TV is a farfetched one. At least to any widespread degree.

I mean, does the very notion of kids having their own TVs even exist here? I'm pretty sure I've been asked if "it's true that that happens in 外国."
I don't think there are no families that allow it, I just believe there is a general tendency to opt for alternate ways of letting their children play video games without taking control of the family space. I am sure there are families that let their children play PS4 on the family TV, but I think it is something that happens in the minority, and such tendency has decreased since the PS2 days.

The survey I linked shows that there are many multiple TV households yet, more than I suspected (however I live in Tokyo, where space is a premium and none of my students are in high school, so my POV may be skewed). It's hard to say if those TVs being counted are TVs that are built into the car, etc. I think like probably most places, the observation 'the older the child the more likely they have their own TV' can made. But I have friends in the US who have young children who have their own TVs, so who knows.
 

jman2050

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
5,847
I wanna know if there's an actual expectation among the less enthusiast gaming crowd that there will be a Switch Monster Hunter in the near future.
 

casiopao

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
5,044
I am not sure how things goes in Japan but recently in SEA especially my country, more parents opt not to give the children room any TV anymore.

As there is a new thinking that a TV would make the children stay in his room longer and cause lesser quality family time. So now, TV more often is placed in family room so that parents can easily control what the children watch and avoid over gaming lol.
 

Slam Tilt

Member
Jan 16, 2018
5,585
The original Pokken never sold its initial shipment. Switch port has already outsold it and continues very strong. With Nintendo looking satisfied from its performance and DLC coming this game will keep going on for a long time.
I admit that I am baffled at Pokken's performance. When the Wii U game got lukewarm sales I chalked it up to players not being into the game, and I dismissed the Switch version as a lazy way to pad the Switch library. Seeing its sales now leaves me scratching my head at where all the new players are coming from. Or is it simply that Croagunk is THAT popular?
 

CeroMiedo

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,337
I admit that I am baffled at Pokken's performance. When the Wii U game got lukewarm sales I chalked it up to players not being into the game, and I dismissed the Switch version as a lazy way to pad the Switch library. Seeing its sales now leaves me scratching my head at where all the new players are coming from. Or is it simply that Croagunk is THAT popular?
or maybe it's just the game actually shows its true potential now that it's available on a popular platform
 

casiopao

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
5,044
I admit that I am baffled at Pokken's performance. When the Wii U game got lukewarm sales I chalked it up to players not being into the game, and I dismissed the Switch version as a lazy way to pad the Switch library. Seeing its sales now leaves me scratching my head at where all the new players are coming from. Or is it simply that Croagunk is THAT popular?

Wii U is a toxic platform.
Switch is a great platform.
 

funtastrophe

Member
Oct 25, 2017
255
So it sounds like the 800k predictions might not be too far off? Not every store is selling out, but some stores are getting restocks. Maybe 900k?

Well, that at least agrees with these numbers compiled a few weeks ago (with a pretty chart version linked here) MHW's historical preorder to FW sales behavior. Every game below 2700 last-day preorder points at ComG has led to first-week sales around or below 1 million (only XX limped above that mark and then only barely). While ComG's predictive power is fairly weak, it does feel like sales will pretty much follow this general behavior.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,410
So it sounds like the 800k predictions might not be too far off? Not every store is selling out, but some stores are getting restocks. Maybe 900k?

Pre-orders were higher than Dragon Quest XI, I doubt the number will be lower than this (950k). Then you need to add December bundles as pointed out before, making one million pretty much guaranteed.
 

Fukuzatsu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,324
Well, that at least agrees with these numbers compiled a few weeks ago (with a pretty chart version linked here) MHW's historical preorder to FW sales behavior. Every game below 2700 last-day preorder points at ComG has led to first-week sales around or below 1 million (only XX limped above that mark and then only barely). While ComG's predictive power is fairly weak, it does feel like sales will pretty much follow this general behavior.

True, but the other two major PS4 games in the market (FFXV and DQXI) had very different multipliers to MHXX, and even assuming the ratio were identical to XX, MHW ended with 1634 points on COMG, a gap of over 300. So, less than 1 million seems like it would need to be a statistical outlier (among both PS4 games and compared to the last MH), or have had stock issues.
 

funtastrophe

Member
Oct 25, 2017
255
True, but the other two major PS4 games in the market (FFXV and DQXI) had very different multipliers to MHXX, and even assuming the ratio were identical to XX, MHW ended with 1634 points on COMG, a gap of over 300. So, less than 1 million seems like it would need to be a statistical outlier (among both PS4 games and compared to the last MH), or have had stock issues.

Well, it might be a bit iffy to compare it against just one other game in the same series -- that's why I appreciated that the list included pretty much any entry in the series of note, so we could see if there were a trend of any sort. I like the idea of comparing against games on the same system, but it'd be nice if we had a greater sample set to work with. Is there anywhere online that one could search for last-day preorders counts for arbitrary games, or is that just a "scour Era and other forums for prior relevant posts" sort of deal?
 

Deleted member 4021

Oct 25, 2017
1,707
I am not sure how things goes in Japan but recently in SEA especially my country, more parents opt not to give the children room any TV anymore.

As there is a new thinking that a TV would make the children stay in his room longer and cause lesser quality family time. So now, TV more often is placed in family room so that parents can easily control what the children watch and avoid over gaming lol.
Pretty sure kids having TVs in Japan is very uncommon.
 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
True, but the other two major PS4 games in the market (FFXV and DQXI) had very different multipliers to MHXX, and even assuming the ratio were identical to XX, MHW ended with 1634 points on COMG, a gap of over 300. So, less than 1 million seems like it would need to be a statistical outlier (among both PS4 games and compared to the last MH), or have had stock issues.

While I believe it is very possible that MHW will sell somewhere around 1 million this week, I'm not sure 2 data points is even enough to make such a statistical inference, however I am no statistician.
 

Vinnk

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,969
Japan
So as I said yesterday, I went to my local GEO last night after work (about 8:30pm). MHW still in stock. Lots of copies of the game behind the counter. Since this was launch day, I do not assume these copies are part of a restock.

img_4155e4o84.jpeg

Red text says basically "In Stock"

img_4154emo1k.jpeg


One store. Small town. Probably doesn't mean a lot in the grand scheme of things, but that's what I saw.

But I predicted over 1 million and I am loosing a bit of confidence...
 
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foxuzamaki

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,615
Switch

Switch is such a monster, if it wasn't for the fact that we know it has stock issues, you wouldn't be aware of it given the space on store shelves. New units for today. Software as well, Pokkén and Zelda are out of stock at Bic Camera Kyoto. Reservations for some games are available and have their own stands.



VUfOGIl.jpg

MFCQIek.jpg

JRU99Cj.jpg

zbX4IuM.jpg


Pokkén and Zelda are completely sold out
l3AQOhu.jpg


The Best 3 and Pre-orders
7CZO3wV.jpg

iMCFHGR.jpg

0HU6IRh.jpg

Thanks for the 3 posts
 

hiska-kun

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,410
So with these restocks, the fears of the leaker blogger of sold out and super high digital rate might not come true at the end.

Shipment should be well over one million by now.
 
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