Media Create Sales: Week 4, 2021 (Jan 25 - Jan 31)

SinCityAssassin · Feb 9, 2021

PREDICTION LEAGUE FEBRUARY 2021

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Feb 1 to Feb 28):

[NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury (17 days) - 445.000
[NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (4 days) - 130.000
[NSW] Bravely Default II (3 days) 105.000

Limabean01 · Feb 9, 2021

Chris1964 said:
Since this is that last week of Momotaro Dentetsu at top of charts these are the games that have remained at 1st place over 10 weeks since launch without interaption until another game dropped them out.

11 weeks [FCM] Super Mario Bros. 3 <ACT> (Nintendo) {1988.10.23} (¥6.500) - Famitsu rankings still incomplete after 11th week, it could go up to 20 weeks
18 weeks [SFC] Super Mario World <ACT> (Nintendo) {1990.11.21} (¥8.000)
10 weeks [SFC] Final Fantasy V <RPG> (Square) {1992.12.06} (¥9.800)
12 weeks [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu: Showa, Heisei, Reiwa mo Teiban! <TBL> (Konami) {2020.11.19} (¥6.300)

That's insane.... momotaro has had the longest run at number one of any game since 1990

Chris1964 · Feb 9, 2021

Limabean01 said:
That's insane.... momotaro has had the longest run at number one of any game since 1992

Since 1991 and Super Mario World, 30 years.

Neoxon · Feb 9, 2021

Tbone5189 said:
MHR over 20mil lifetime, you heard it here first 😂

To be clear, I get that you're joking. But hypothetically speaking, unless MHR gets a PlayStation/Xbox release, I don't see that happening with just Switch & PC. Not just because of it only being on 2 platforms, but also because of MHW being lightning in a bottle. Hell, I don't even think MH6 will pass MHW's numbers.

Make no mistake, Rise is gonna print money (especially in Japan). I just don't expect it to hit World levels of money-printing.

Deleted member 63122 · Feb 9, 2021

Neoxon said:
To be clear, I get that you're joking. But hypothetically speaking, unless MHR gets a PlayStation/Xbox release, I don't see that happening with just Switch & PC. Not just because of it only being on 2 platforms, but also because of MHW being lightning in a bottle. Hell, I don't even think MH6 will pass MHW's numbers.

Make no mistake, Rise is gonna print money (especially in Japan). I just don't expect it to hit World levels of money-printing.

I have seen lighting in a bottle so many times when it comes to Switch. Do I think it will 20 million, but if it reaches that, I wouldn´t be surprised.

DecoReturns · Feb 9, 2021

Neoxon said:
To be clear, I get that you're joking. But hypothetically speaking, unless MHR gets a PlayStation/Xbox release, I don't see that happening with just Switch & PC. Not just because of it only being on 2 platforms, but also because of MHW being lightning in a bottle. Hell, I don't even think MH6 will pass MHW's numbers.

Make no mistake, Rise is gonna print money (especially in Japan). I just don't expect it to hit World levels of money-printing.

If Rise keeps its full price when it sells 10 million plus copies. It might do better money wise lol.

world has been pretty cheap to get for a long time.

ShiningBash · Feb 9, 2021

Neoxon said:
To be clear, I get that you're joking. But hypothetically speaking, unless MHR gets a PlayStation/Xbox release, I don't see that happening with just Switch & PC. Not just because of it only being on 2 platforms, but also because of MHW being lightning in a bottle. Hell, I don't even think MH6 will pass MHW's numbers.

Make no mistake, Rise is gonna print money (especially in Japan). I just don't expect it to hit World levels of money-printing.

I feel like Tbone is only halfway joking though and his jests have been coming true. I think he started speculating about 12m LTD for Animal Crossing in Japan alone after Week 1.

I think MHR getting to 20m depends entirely upon non-Japan Asia sales and USA sales.

Kakadu18 · Feb 9, 2021

With PC the most I think MHR will sell is 15mil LT.

foxuzamaki · Feb 9, 2021

neroxyr said:
Seeing how predominante NSW software has been throughout the year, it's astounding to say the least and this week is no exception. Would love to see more blue in the chart. So I recompiled all the info since 2017, W43 from the data pulled from the Famitsu archived thanks to Chris1964. I could put all the Top 30 in the same chart but it's quite a mess. So a top 15 made it visually clear. It's a WtW bar chart race

PD: It's almost 17 minutes long. So get comfortable and enjoy the ride. xD You can skip it to certain week too.

Famitsu Sales Week to Week Chart

I may have been confused on this a bit, is this excluding BOTW or am I reading this wrong and/or blind?

Neoxon · Feb 9, 2021

aggrocrog said:
I feel like Tbone is only halfway joking though and his jests have been coming true. I think he started speculating about 12m LTD for Animal Crossing in Japan alone after Week 1.

I think MHR getting to 20m depends entirely upon non-Japan Asia sales and USA sales.

I still can't see Rise passing World globally without PlayStation/Xbox versions, especially without the zeitgeist that propelled World to mainstream stardom. With that being said, I do think it's possible that Rise may come close thanks to the PC version. But that ultimately depends on if the PC crowd didn't get their fill of Monster Hunter with World for the time being. Granted, it won't be a huge drop-off. But I could see it happening.

Tbone5189 · Feb 9, 2021

Neoxon said:
To be clear, I get that you're joking. But hypothetically speaking, unless MHR gets a PlayStation/Xbox release, I don't see that happening with just Switch & PC. Not just because of it only being on 2 platforms, but also because of MHW being lightning in a bottle. Hell, I don't even think MH6 will pass MHW's numbers.

Make no mistake, Rise is gonna print money (especially in Japan). I just don't expect it to hit World levels of money-printing.

omg I'm sorry for the misunderstanding, you must of not seen my posting history here on Resetera

I'm not joking 😉

Neoxon · Feb 9, 2021

Tbone5189 said:
omg I'm sorry for the misunderstanding, you must of not seen my posting history here on Resetera

I'm not joking 😉

Then cross out everything up to "speaking".

Tbone5189 · Feb 9, 2021

aggrocrog said:
I feel like Tbone is only halfway joking though and his jests have been coming true. I think he started speculating about 12m LTD for Animal Crossing in Japan alone after Week 1.

I think MHR getting to 20m depends entirely upon non-Japan Asia sales and USA sales.

you get me but you are right, halfway joking. NSW is pulling 20mil sellers like it's cool. MHR could possibly make it but only if PC and NSW can majorly exceed expectations lol

Skittzo · Feb 9, 2021

Neoxon said:
I still can't see Rise passing World globally without PlayStation/Xbox versions, especially without the zeitgeist that propelled World to mainstream stardom. With that being said, I do think it's possible that Rise may come close thanks to the PC version. But that ultimately depends on if the PC crowd didn't get their fill of Monster Hunter with World for the time being. Granted, it won't be a huge drop-off. But I could see it happening.

Did MHW on XB1 really sell that well? Switch at this point has an install base probably not too far behind PS4+XB1 combined when it launched, right?

Neoxon · Feb 9, 2021

skittzo0413 said:
Did MHW on XB1 really sell that well? Switch at this point has an install base probably not too far behind PS4+XB1 combined when it launched, right?

That gets into the "lightning in a bottle" argument. The success of World is something I don't see being repeated anytime soon, be it Rise or MH6. And unless I'm mistaken, a large chunk (if not the majority) of Switch owners outside of Japan also own another more powerful system (be it PlayStation or Xbox). There's a decent chance that a good chunk of those players may have gotten their fill of MH for the time being via World, something I could see being an issue on PC. The guaranteed increase in sales over in Japan will help offset this, but I'm not sure it'll be enough to surpass World.

In general, I feel like it'll be a while before any MH game passes World.

Delusibeta · Feb 9, 2021

Yeah, I do think Monster Hunter Rise selling ten million copies worldwide is more of a "when" rather than an "if". The more interesting question is whether or not the game can hit that mark before the launch of the PC version.

Neoxon · Feb 9, 2021

Delusibeta said:
Yeah, I do think Monster Hunter Rise selling ten million copies worldwide is more of a "when" rather than an "if". The more interesting question is whether or not the game can hit that mark before the launch of the PC version.

That's actually a reasonable expectation, be it 4m-West/6m-JP or an even 50/50 split between Japan & international sales. But I feel like it'll hit that number in part thanks to the PC version.

Kakadu18 · Feb 9, 2021

foxuzamaki said:
I may have been confused on this a bit, is this excluding BOTW or am I reading this wrong and/or blind?

BotW is there, it's the top 15 not 30, so BotW isn't always on there.

AquaWateria · Feb 9, 2021

I'll say this I won't be surprised if it happens because software sales have been ridiculous on switch.

Still my expectations are 10 million plus.

foxuzamaki · Feb 9, 2021

Kakadu18 said:
BotW is there, it's the top 15 not 30, so BotW isn't always on there.

Ahh, I see

ShiningBash · Feb 9, 2021

Tbone5189 said:
you get me but you are right, halfway joking. NSW is pulling 20mil sellers like it's cool. MHR could possibly make it but only if PC and NSW can majorly exceed expectations lol

Right bc MHW is at 16.8m right now across PS4/XB1/PC (7.2m for Iceborne).

Would it be really cool/wild? Yes. Do I expect this to happen? Not at all. I do think it's a lock for 10m if it reviews well (not really an insightful/original opinion).

Skittzo · Feb 9, 2021

Neoxon said:
That gets into the "lightning in a bottle" argument. The success of World is something I don't see being repeated anytime soon, be it Rise or MH6. And unless I'm mistaken, a large chunk (if not the majority) of Switch owners outside of Japan also own another more powerful system (be it PlayStation or Xbox). There's a decent chance that a good chunk of those players may have gotten their fill of MH for the time being via World, something I could see being an issue on PC. The guaranteed increase in sales over in Japan will help offset this, but I'm not sure it'll be enough to surpass World.

In general, I feel like it'll be a while before any MH game passes World.

It's hard to say, yeah. I think the new mechanics are enough to excite a lot of people who's first experience was with World, and generally a lot of Switch owners are always on the look out for good exclusives, even if they have another console.

The demo nearly shut the eShop servers in NA, there's absolutely demand.

Kandinsky · Feb 9, 2021

neroxyr said:
Seeing how predominante NSW software has been throughout the year, it's astounding to say the least and this week is no exception. Would love to see more blue in the chart. So I recompiled all the info since 2017, W43 from the data pulled from the Famitsu archived thanks to Chris1964. I could put all the Top 30 in the same chart but it's quite a mess. So a top 15 made it visually clear. It's a WtW bar chart race

PD: It's almost 17 minutes long. So get comfortable and enjoy the ride. xD You can skip it to certain week too.

Famitsu Sales Week to Week Chart

Watched the whole thing, that was so fun lol, thanks!

Tom Nook Says... · Feb 9, 2021

neroxyr said:
Seeing how predominante NSW software has been throughout the year, it's astounding to say the least and this week is no exception. Would love to see more blue in the chart. So I recompiled all the info since 2017, W43 from the data pulled from the Famitsu archived thanks to Chris1964. I could put all the Top 30 in the same chart but it's quite a mess. So a top 15 made it visually clear. It's a WtW bar chart race

PD: It's almost 17 minutes long. So get comfortable and enjoy the ride. xD You can skip it to certain week too.

Famitsu Sales Week to Week Chart

Thanks, that was cool. I'd forgotten how insane Animal Crossing's opening was. Also interesting to see the 2nd wind of Ring Fit aligned with when COVID hit.

zroid · Feb 9, 2021

ehluigi said:
I'm hearing on some other threads that the BD2 previews are very positive. Not sure how the Japanese audience will find the game but hopefully WoM is good enough to give this game some decent legs (assuming SE doesn't handicap themselves with stock).

Drblitzk · Feb 9, 2021

Ok I'll give it a try.

PREDICTION LEAGUE FEBRUARY 2021

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Feb 1 to Feb 28):

[NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury (17 days) - 435.000
[NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (4 days) - 95.000
[NSW] Bravely Default II (3 days) 155.000

neroxyr · Feb 9, 2021

Djehuty said:
if you go to NeoGaf (should i just say the "other place" nobody else seems to refer to it by name soooooo?) there is even older data.

regardless this is really good and helpful to visualize recent data. thanks. it must've taken a lot of time to do.

I've never been to NeoGaf forums before so don't know the history behind what you say. Will check there to obtain previous data so I can update it. Thanks, it indeed took me a lot of time trying to format the data copied from the archived and realizing that there has been a total of 859 games between 2017, W43 and 2020, W04 in the top 30.

Kakadu18 said:
Thx, was a fun watch. Gives a great overview.

IronTed said:
This is very cool to watch!

JustALurker said:
Loved this!

Kandinsky said:
Watched the whole thing, that was so fun lol, thanks!

Glad you guys liked it. It was fun making it too :)

ThomasJames said:
Thanks, that was cool. I'd forgotten how insane Animal Crossing's opening was. Also interesting to see the 2nd wind of Ring Fit aligned with when COVID hit.

Ring Fit was and still is the real winner, never thought it could have a staying power just like the other Nintendo evergreens.

foxuzamaki said:
I may have been confused on this a bit, is this excluding BOTW or am I reading this wrong and/or blind?

You're not blind xD. This data is taken from 2017, W43 so the initial BoTW sales date is not included. Will try to update the chart later on.

aggrocrog said:
This was fantastic!
Edit: I'd forgotten about how different 2017/2018 were.

Those years Japan had a healthy competition

Kakadu18 · Feb 9, 2021

neroxyr said:
I've never been to NeoGaf forums before so don't know the history behind what you say. Will check there to obtain previous data so I can update it. Thanks, it indeed took me a lot of time trying to format the data copied from the archived and realizing that there has been a total of 859 games between 2017, W43 and 2020, W04 in the top 30.

Glad you guys liked it. It was fun making it too :)

Ring Fit was and still is the real winner, never thought it could have a staying power just like the other Nintendo evergreens.

You're not blind xD. This data is taken from 2017, W43 so the initial BoTW sales date is not included. Will try to update the chart later on.

Those years Japan had a healthy competition

859 games, wow thats more than I would have thought.

LostCauseUnite! · Feb 9, 2021

skittzo0413 said:
Did MHW on XB1 really sell that well? Switch at this point has an install base probably not too far behind PS4+XB1 combined when it launched, right?

Iirc, Xbox One platform was 2 or 3 million copies, PlayStation platform was 8 million or 9 Million(?) and PC was the rest.

I might be remembering the numbers wrong of course, but I remember XB1 being a lot lower than the PlayStation numbers.

fiendcode · Feb 9, 2021

LostCauseUnite! said:
Iirc, Xbox One platform was 2 or 3 million copies, PlayStation platform was 8 million or 9 Million(?) and PC was the rest.

I might be rememberping the numbers wrong of course, but I remember XB1 being a lot lower than the PlayStation numbers.

Less for Xbox.

World
PS4: 8,693,000
PC: 5,953,000
Xbox: 1,789,000

Iceborne
PS4: 4,545,000
PC: 2,450,000
Xbox: 448,000

P Diddy · Feb 9, 2021

We hit 30 pages already? Man, the MC threads have been lively since Week 45 of last year.

On the topic of MHR sales predictions, it feels somewhat similar to the discussions I read through last year surrounding Animal Crossing. For comparison's sake, does anyone have the sell-in data for the 3DS games? I want to compare them to ACNL. For reference, Japan made up (as of recently) around 46% of NL's total sales, but only 33.34% of the total sales of the 3DS, which means ACNL was only 1.37x more popular in Japan than worldwide comparing to relative install bases.

Gotdatmoney · Feb 9, 2021

So this data is out of date but it does give an idea of Monster Hunter on the Switch.

Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate was the 9th highest dollar grossing third party game lifetime on Swith in the US from launch to May 2019 NPD period. The game launched in August 2018.

To me this suggests that there is sizeable interest in MH on Nintendo hardware at least in the US. The game should have a very favourable launch. Monster Hunter games have always had good legs in the US as well. So I expect this to have a very sizeable launch.

zroid · Feb 9, 2021

PREDICTION LEAGUE FEBRUARY 2021

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Feb 1 to Feb 28):

[NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury (17 days) - 505.050
[NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (4 days) - 70.707
[NSW] Bravely Default II (3 days) 90.909

LostCauseUnite! · Feb 9, 2021

fiendcode said:
Less for Xbox.

World
PS4: 8,693,000
PC: 5,953,000
Xbox: 1,789,000

Iceborne
PS4: 4,545,000
PC: 2,450,000
Xbox: 448,000

Ah, ok thanks, closer to accuracy on PS4, but off with X1S. That said in response to this post:

Neoxon said:
I still can't see Rise passing World globally without PlayStation/Xbox versions, especially without the zeitgeist that propelled World to mainstream stardom. With that being said, I do think it's possible that Rise may come close thanks to the PC version. But that ultimately depends on if the PC crowd didn't get their fill of Monster Hunter with World for the time being. Granted, it won't be a huge drop-off. But I could see it happening.

It doesn't really need the Xbox numbers. Just the PC and PS4-like numbers to get close to or passing world. I thought X1S did better, but it was only 1.8M at most which isn't really an issue for NSW to do I think

PC contributed a lot from the Microsoft platform, and they'll likely get a PC like patch that makes it super shiny for the PC Crowd.

As a whole that is, pc + nsw being enough.

foxuzamaki · Feb 10, 2021

Aviewtifulmind has been already banned for some reason

zroid · Feb 10, 2021

foxuzamaki said:
Aviewtifulmind has been already banned for some reason

Not gonna bother linking the post but it's just for 3 days.

Le Dude · Feb 10, 2021

I mean, anecdotal but in my family in the past we've owned a couple Monster Hunter games until World, which we have three copies of on Steam accounts. With Rise we will likely be getting four Switch copies and if it has crossplay we'll probably be grabbing two copies on PC.

IMO Rise looks to be a major step-up from World, and software has been doing incredibly well on Switch. I see it doing 10M on Switch. For lifetime sales including PC a lot will depend on long term price and G version vs DLC.

Djehuty · Feb 10, 2021

JamFlan said:
I mean, anecdotal but in my family in the past we've owned a couple Monster Hunter games until World, which we have three copies of on Steam accounts. With Rise we will likely be getting four Switch copies and if it has crossplay we'll probably be grabbing two copies on PC.

IMO Rise looks to be a major step-up from World, and software has been doing incredibly well on Switch. I see it doing 10M on Switch. For lifetime sales including PC a lot will depend on long term price and G version vs DLC.

yeah Rise is a natural evolution of what MH should be, it makes MHW look like classic MH in comparison, i think it's up in the air weather or not it can outsell world, I give it a 50/50 chance.

Le Dude · Feb 10, 2021

Djehuty said:
yeah Rise is a natural evolution of what MH should be, it makes MHW look like classic MH in comparison, i think it's up in the air weather or not it can outsell world, I give it a 50/50 chance.

I found navigation and mobility to be a bit of a pain in World, whereas the level design of what I've played in Rise is much clearer and the mobility options are more diverse. Obviously that could backfire and it could lead to more boring levels, but I think that the ease of access will help make the game more newcomer friendly. Additionally the Palamute is an excellent addition.

I think 50/50 on crossing World may be a bit bullish, but again the long-term price and whether it gets DLC instead of a G or Ultimate version will make a big difference. The quality of the PC port will matter a lot too.

Rorschacht · Feb 10, 2021

Pooroomoo · Feb 10, 2021

I don't know why but I feel that Story of Seasons will sell much more then Bravely Default (at least in Japan).

foxuzamaki said:
Aviewtifulmind has been already banned for some reason

They hounded another poster.

Pancakes R Us · Feb 10, 2021

Rorschacht said:

Hah. Is this New Animal Crossing? The black cat reminds me of Rover.

cw_sasuke · Feb 10, 2021

Pooroomoo said:
I don't know why but I feel that Story of Seasons will sell much more then Bravely Default (at least in Japan).

After the last trailer i wouldnt be surprised if it outperforms it on a global scale - MMV has a winner on their hands if they play their cards right. It should have quite the legs on Switch, considering how games like AC or Stardew Valley been performing. The target market for BD is quite a bit smaller than that....but time will tell, BD has the Nintendo publishing advantage in the west obv.

Charamiwa · Feb 10, 2021

I just wish the production value was a bit higher for Story of Seasons, to make it really stand out. I think it'll do great either way but the visual limitations might prevent it from really blowing up.

Sandfox · Feb 10, 2021

cw_sasuke said:
After the last trailer i wouldnt be surprised if it outperforms it on a global scale - MMV has a winner on their hands if they play their cards right. It should have quite the legs on Switch, considering how games like AC or Stardew Valley been performing. The target market for BD is quite a bit smaller than that....but time will tell, BD has the Nintendo publishing advantage in the west obv.

Pioneers of Olive Town is probably going to be one of the best games in the series, so I would expect it to do well.

KtSlime · Feb 10, 2021

Pancakes R Us said:
Hah. Is this New Animal Crossing? The black cat reminds me of Rover.

Sony fails at their own branding exhibit A.
(Toro is PlayStation's mascot)

Skittzo · Feb 10, 2021

fiendcode said:
Less for Xbox.

World
PS4: 8,693,000
PC: 5,953,000
Xbox: 1,789,000

Iceborne
PS4: 4,545,000
PC: 2,450,000
Xbox: 448,000

Rise will make up that XB1 gap easily just with Japan numbers.

So yeah I think it has a good chance of at least matching World's PS4 + XB1 sales.

Rorschacht · Feb 10, 2021

KtSlime said:
Sony fails at their own branding exhibit A.
(Toro is PlayStation's mascot)

To be fair, It's almost unknown outside of Japan (nowadays, maybe inside too?)

Kakadu18 · Feb 10, 2021

KtSlime said:
Sony fails at their own branding exhibit A.
(Toro is PlayStation's mascot)

Never heard of Toro before.

KtSlime · Feb 10, 2021

Rorschacht said:
To be fair, It's almost unknown outside of Japan (nowadays, maybe inside too?)

I'll have to ask my students next week, but I`m guessing it will be 0/50 for do not recognize, but PlayStation as a brand would probably not be much better, maybe 5/50.

Kakadu18 said:
Never heard of Toro before.

どこでもいっしょ.com | PlayStation

「どこでもいっしょ」シリーズ歴代のゲームソフトやキャラクター“ポケピ”をご紹介しているPlayStation公式サイトです。

www.jp.playstation.com

He's the main character of a series called doko demo issyo, but Sony has done a poor job of developing it recently.

Media Create Sales: Week 4, 2021 (Jan 25 - Jan 31)

SalesEra Genius

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