Media Create Sales: Week 46, 2017 (Nov 13 - Nov 19)

[BishopLamont]

A unit sales is a unit sales. It doesn't matter where it comes from.
I think some people put too much emphasis on growth in western market, while others on maintaining Japanese sales.

Click to shrink...

well yeah but i think it is more likely it'll sell 3m in the west than 3m in japan

You mean the fanbase who is in 3DS ?

Click to shrink...

yes, they are still western players that are fans of the series

the wii u is dead, the 3ds is on its deathbed, it isn't unreasonable to think these players have a newer console

iirc mh also did quite well on the ps3

 

[Chris1964]

GEO Weekly Ranking Sales, 2017 (Nov 20 - Nov 26)

~ 1.200 stores

01/02 [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Moon (The Pokemon Co.) (2017/11/17)
02/01 [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Sun (The Pokemon Co.) (2017/11/17)
03/03 [PS4] Call of Duty World War 2 (Sony Interactive Entertainment) (2017/11/03)
04/NEW [PS4] Hatsune Miku Project DIVA Future Tone DX (Sega Games) (2017/11/22)
05/05 [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey (Nintendo) (2017/10/27)
06/09 [NSW] Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) (2017/7/21)
07/04 [PS4] Star Wars BattleFront 2 (Electronic Arts) (2017/11/17)
08/27 [3DS] Animal Crossing Amiibo + (Nintendo) (2016/11/23)
09/13 [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) (2017/4/28)
10/NEW [3DS] Beyblade Burst God (FuRyu) (2017/11/23)


*3DS Pokémon Ultra Sun Ultra Moon (dual pack included)

Click to shrink...

"3DS Pokemon Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon (including Dual Pack) took 1st and 2nd place for 2 weeks in a row.
From the new releases Hatsune Miku: Project Diva Future Tone DX is showing high sell-through.
It is noteworthy that Switch and 3DS software rise has become conspicuous because year-end shopping battle began. Especially 3DS Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo has raised considerably from the impact of the application game."

 

[Marukoban]

I am expecting a lot of meltdowns after MHW first UK chart even though it will not be that representative in the end.

Click to shrink...

The meltdown is confirmed either way.
If it sells well -> Nintendo fans meltdown
If it bombs -> Sony fans meltdown
Xbox players will just be happy they can play MHW, but will subsequently have meltdown due to no cross play and pitiful player base online.

 

[Mory Dunz]

So basically because "It's on PS4"

Click to shrink...

this isn't your daddy's PS4

 

[Lelouch0612]

well yeah but i think it is more likely it'll sell 3m in the west than 3m in japan


yes, they are still western players that are fans of the series

the wii u is dead, the 3ds is on its deathbed, it isn't unreasonable to think these players have a newer console

Click to shrink...

I think you underestimate the number of Nintendo only owners or portable only owners. The disastrous PR around MHXX non localization has also killed a lot of goodwill.

You are building only on a part of these 1m+ sales. Taking them for granted is a mistake imo.

 

[Kinger256]

Japan's relevant because it's the region where MH sells 4 million units. If Capcom wants sustained global growth they'll need a strong platform in that region too.

The goal for World is global growth itself, not laying down theoretical potential for future growth in a possible sequel. I think it can still be a successful product though even if it's unlikely to match global MH4 sales.

If World only sold 500k on Japan it would be catastrophic though. Fortunetly it seems like most are expecting 2-3x that, still a steep drop from the handheld games but not unrecoverable if there's equivalent growth in the west.

Click to shrink...

Monster Hunter has not sold over 4mil since PSP days and the series was in decline in Japan regardless whether MHT was on PS4 or not. On the other hand we are seeing steady growth in the west for each MH.

And why does Capcom need a strong platform in Japan for sustained global growth? There have been franchises which have catered in Japan yet flourished in the west. One such example is FF.

 

[Aters]

I think people should explain what about World has changed that will get a larger audience compared to when it was released on console before, cause I'm not seeing it.

Click to shrink...

A bigger market push and more platforms.

 

[Jawbreaker]

I think people should explain what about World has changed that will get a larger audience compared to when it was released on console before, cause I'm not seeing it.

Click to shrink...

Along with some of what has already been mentioned, lots of common sense QoL changes and infinitely better tutorials to ease in newcomers.

 

[John Bender]

Along with some of what has already been mentioned, lots of common sense QoL changes and infinitely better tutorials to ease in newcomers.

Click to shrink...

All lies! Surely just because it's on a Sony platform *cries*

 

[sfortunato]

If the rumor about DMCV is true, then we have Sony partnering with Capcom on three of its major IPs. SFV and DMCV co-funded and MHW with a huge help in marketing. Sony was pretty good in incentivizing third party developers in betting on PS4.

 

[Kinger256]

If the rumor about DMCV is true, then we have Sony partnering with Capcom on three of its major IPs. SFV and DMCV co-funded and MHW with a huge help in marketing. Sony was pretty good in incentivizing third party developers in betting on PS4.

Click to shrink...

Wait Sony did some funding for MHW? First time I've heard of this. But that doesn't make much sense as it wouldn't be on the Xbox then.

 

[Vena]

Along with some of what has already been mentioned, lots of common sense QoL changes and infinitely better tutorials to ease in newcomers.

Click to shrink...

Some of the stuff being heralded as a great improvement is from 4...

 

[sfortunato]

Wait Sony did some funding for MHW? First time I've heard of this. But that doesn't make much sense as it wouldn't be on the Xbox then.

Click to shrink...

Someone was saying that Sony was helping in marketing (not funding). Having bundles and collector's edition is already a sign of this, as well as the presence at their presentations during gaming fairs.

 

[BishopLamont]

I think you underestimate the number of Nintendo only owners or portable only owners. The disastrous PR around MHXX non localization has also killed a lot of goodwill.

You are building only on a part of these 1m+ sales. Taking them for granted is a mistake imo.

Click to shrink...

yes we know not having a switch sku is a mistake but thats over and done with by now but regardless whether these nintendo fans will join in or not, the main expansion is amongst the western-centric platforms ps4/pc

sony has done quite a good job recently in marketing games on the ps4 platform, similar to how xb2 is in its best position to sell 1m+ by being on switch, i think mh has the best chance to expand being on pc/ps4, at least better chance than previous platforms and situations the series has been in

it won't be easy but it won't be impossible either, like i said, 3m isn't a big number if pushed properly

regarding xx localisation, if this fails due to that then capcom can always salvage the situation when switch receives its first true mh

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Pocket Camp -> New Leaf -> Amiibos

Nintendo being evil again.

 

[Kinger256]

Someone was saying that Sony was helping in marketing (not funding). Having bundles and collector's edition is already a sign of this, as well as the presence at their presentations during gaming fairs.

Click to shrink...

Ah OK. Sony does this a lot for other companies too. I don't think it says much about Capcom betting on the PS4 though, more so that Sony is offering an advertising deal with no downsides for Capcom.

 

[Vena]

MHW on PC is far from being pushed properly. It's probably the biggest debacle of the whole thing in terms of squandered potential, along with the lack of PC crossplay.

Let's talk about the PC release and it's supposed millions of sales when Capcom actually says/shows something about it's existence.

 

[Principate]

MHW on PC is far from being pushed properly. It's probably the biggest debacle of the whole thing in terms of squandered potential, along with the lack of PC crossplay.

Let's talk about the PC release and it's supposed millions of sales when Capcom actually says/shows something about it's existence.

Click to shrink...

Marketing deals will do that and lack of priority will do that.

Now why Capcom would do such a thing on one of it's most risky games who knows.

 

[sfortunato]

Ah OK. Sony does this a lot for other companies too. I don't think it says much about Capcom betting on the PS4 though, more so that Sony is offering an advertising deal with no downsides for Capcom.

Click to shrink...

Indeed Sony has plenty of marketing deals around because PS4 needs third parties to succeed. I mean, we can talk about a PlayStation FOUR because, at the time, Sony was incentivizing third parties to jump aboard: lower royalties, publishing deals, co-marketing. This is normal, and it's not something negative. Whenever you see a bundle with some third game it's because the hardware manufacturer and the software house signed a deal. Given the relevance of MHW, it would be silly for Sony to not properly help Capcom in this. Indeed, MHW was present at the most important Sony conferences this year.

 

[Lelouch0612]

yes we know not having a switch sku is a mistake but thats over and done with by now but regardless whether these nintendo fans will join in or not, the main expansion is amongst the western-centric platforms ps4/pc

sony has done quite a good job recently in marketing games on the ps4 platform, similar to how xb2 is in its best position to sell 1m+ by being on switch, i think mh has the best chance to expand being on pc/ps4, at least better chance than previous platforms and situations the series has been in

it won't be easy but it won't be impossible either, like i said, 3m isn't a big number if pushed properly

regarding xx localisation, if this fails due to that then capcom can always salvage the situation when switch receives its first true mh

Click to shrink...

The lack of a Switch SKU is understandable because of the timing. I was just pointing out that Monster Hunter World has to be the first entry in the franchise for a lot of people in order to achieve those numbers.

3m will be a challenge, it is not an easy feat and especially given the bad release date. 2-2.5m would have been a success imo but the big Japanese drop is putting too much pressure on it.

 

[Jawbreaker]

Some of the stuff being heralded as a great improvement is from 4...

Click to shrink...

Specifically, which QoL changes are being touted as new that were introduced in 4?

 

[BishopLamont]

Monster Hunter has not sold over 4mil since PSP days and the series was in decline in Japan regardless whether MHT was on PS4 or not. On the other hand we are seeing steady growth in the west for each MH.

And why does Capcom need a strong platform in Japan for sustained global growth? There have been franchises which have catered in Japan yet flourished in the west. One such example is FF.

Click to shrink...

mh4 topped 4m

i wouldn't say the series has been in "decline" persay, rather the franchise basically turned into an annual franchise and then was experimented with by x/xx games due to the 3ds lasting longer than usual without a proper successor to follow up on

x/xx performance is similar to G versions and xx's sales would have been affected by the 3ds' age

hell mh x even exceeded expectations

next switch entry will show whether mh has really declined or not, it's been far too long without a true sequel to say for certain that it is a big sustained decline and not just generational fatigue similar to what pokemon goes through

 

[silpheed-mcd]

MH over 4m

 

[Lugia]

3DS releases got to 4m because of western sales. They didn't reach 4m in Japan alone.

 

[Deleted member 2793]

We always come back to MonHun, huh? I'll never understand the optimism some people have without any actual data or numbers to support it. Also, why it seems like ONE western sale is more valuable than ONE japanese sale? Isn't it the same. I would even argue that the japanese customers is way more likely to buy a G-rank game the next year.

 

[CeroMiedo]

3DS releases got to 4m because of western sales. They didn't reach 4m in Japan alone.

Click to shrink...

The Ultimate G version?Yeah

We always come back to MonHun, huh? I'll never understand the optimism some people have without any actual data or numbers to support it. Also, why it seems like ONE western sale is more valuable than ONE japanese sale? Isn't it the same. I would even argue that the japanese customers is way more likely to buy a G-rank game the next year.

Click to shrink...

I think if them saying that the series don't have an audience or something like that on the switch,that would solve tons of problems

 

[Mark H]

Core gameplay is still monhun as we know it, so big question is whether those QOL changes as well as the huge graphical update will be enough to gain new audience.

 

[DarkDetective]

3DS releases got to 4m because of western sales. They didn't reach 4m in Japan alone.

Click to shrink...

MH4 was never released outside Japan. Only Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate was. And regarding the Japanese sales of that game:

610./213. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate [Best Price!] <ACT> (Capcom) {2015.07.30} (¥3.490) - 3.632 / 31.916 (-87%) (1.951 <12,63%>)
825./033. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate # <ACT> (Capcom) {2014.10.11} (¥5.800) - 1.711 / 2.559.186 (-99%) (1.446.289 <85,40%>)

Source: the Media Create Sales CY 2016 thread on the other forum. That's ~2.6M copies.

That same thread gives this number for MH4 tho:

462./309. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 # <ACT> (Capcom) {2013.09.14} (¥5.705) - 6.410 / 3.376.892 (-62%) (1.715.060 <91,96%>)

The numbers on Capcom's website are retailer shipments, and these numbers are Media Create sold-through estimates. The difference between 3.37M and 4.1M is a bit too big to my liking tbh...

 

[Lelouch0612]

MH4 was never released outside Japan. Only Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate was. And regarding the Japanese sales of that game:

610./213. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate [Best Price!] <ACT> (Capcom) {2015.07.30} (¥3.490) - 3.632 / 31.916 (-87%) (1.951 <12,63%>)
825./033. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate # <ACT> (Capcom) {2014.10.11} (¥5.800) - 1.711 / 2.559.186 (-99%) (1.446.289 <85,40%>)

Source: the Media Create Sales CY 2016 thread on the other forum. That's ~2.6M copies.

That same thread gives this number for MH4 tho:

462./309. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 # <ACT> (Capcom) {2013.09.14} (¥5.705) - 6.410 / 3.376.892 (-62%) (1.715.060 <91,96%>)

The numbers on Capcom's website are retailer shipments, and these numbers are Media Create sold-through estimates. The difference between 3.37M and 4.1M is a bit too big to my liking tbh...

Click to shrink...

Asia maybe ?

 

[Raijinto]

Core gameplay is still monhun as we know it, so big question is whether those QOL changes as well as the huge graphical update will be enough to gain new audience.

Click to shrink...

I honestly don't think it will. I love MH's gameplay, and I'm surprised and pleased at the QoL improvements this version has, but the core gameplay that has (thank god) remained intact will surely hinder it. I mean, great that you can now change weapons mid-hunt and there are no area transitions and there's an actual proper gear crafting tree but unless you like whacking a Monster for 20-30 minutes in order to to get better gear to help you whack a slightly bigger monster for 20-30 minutes in order to... you get the idea. I don't think better tutorials and QoL will be decisive in keeping people invested in the game who don't like that gameplay loop.

And no the 'Destiny is the same thing and that's really popular' doesn't work. Because Destiny is a FPS of course. Massive difference.

 

[Chris1964]

There is something called digital sales.

 

[Marukoban]

MH4 was never released outside Japan. Only Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate was. And regarding the Japanese sales of that game:

610./213. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate [Best Price!] <ACT> (Capcom) {2015.07.30} (¥3.490) - 3.632 / 31.916 (-87%) (1.951 <12,63%>)
825./033. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate # <ACT> (Capcom) {2014.10.11} (¥5.800) - 1.711 / 2.559.186 (-99%) (1.446.289 <85,40%>)

Source: the Media Create Sales CY 2016 thread on the other forum. That's ~2.6M copies.

That same thread gives this number for MH4 tho:

462./309. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 # <ACT> (Capcom) {2013.09.14} (¥5.705) - 6.410 / 3.376.892 (-62%) (1.715.060 <91,96%>)

The numbers on Capcom's website are retailer shipments, and these numbers are Media Create sold-through estimates. The difference between 3.37M and 4.1M is a bit too big to my liking tbh...

Click to shrink...

There is digital sales unaccounted for in Media Create number.
IIRC MH4 was supply constrained and it might have caused higher digital sales.
However, I still think Capcom tends to overshipped MH games.
Even now I can still find MH4U for cheap at retail in my country.
And usually here it's very difficult to find older game unless the game bombs or is evergreen title, which MH is not

 

[Rainrir]

3DS releases got to 4m because of western sales. They didn't reach 4m in Japan alone.

Click to shrink...

I am still waiting for your numelbers

What are your expectations for "better than most people think" for MHW, you still have not answered me since the last thread.

 

[Mark H]

I honestly don't think it will. I love MH's gameplay, and I'm surprised and pleased at the QoL improvements this version has, but the core gameplay that has (thank god) remained intact will surely hinder it. I mean, great that you can now change weapons mid-hunt and there are no area transitions and there's an actual proper gear crafting tree but unless you like whacking a Monster for 20-30 minutes in order to to get better gear to help you whack a slightly bigger monster for 20-30 minutes in order to... you get the idea. I don't think better tutorials and QoL will be decisive in keeping people invested in the game who don't like that gameplay loop.

And no the 'Destiny is the same thing and that's really popular' doesn't work. Because Destiny is a FPS of course. Massive difference.

Click to shrink...

I think my stance on its sales potential sit somewhere in the middle, where I think the new eye candy will be enough to attract new players in the west but not enough to off set the decline in Japan.
So somewhere like 1.5mil west and 1.5mil Jp, which will still make it the highest console monhun sales to date.

 

[Lugia]

I am still waiting for you numebrs

What are your expectations for " better than most people think" for MHW, you still have not answered me since the last thread.

Click to shrink...

Sorry, was going to get back to you and then I forgot.

If the reception is positive and fans are happy with the game,I see the game having long legs reaching 2-2.5m LTD in Japan alone. I'm not sure about western sales, but we can at least say it will hit 1 million like the 3DS games.

 

[Charamiwa]

We always come back to MonHun, huh? I'll never understand the optimism some people have without any actual data or numbers to support it. Also, why it seems like ONE western sale is more valuable than ONE japanese sale? Isn't it the same. I would even argue that the japanese customers is way more likely to buy a G-rank game the next year.

Click to shrink...

From the producer himself:

Q: It sounds like you're really looking to expand the player base.

A: One of our focuses right now is on disseminating the Monster Hunter brand worldwide, making new fans out of people who have never played Monster Hunte before. We want to expand our player base and continue to grow the brand by putting out more animated features, merchandise, and by holding more events. We enjoy a good bit of popularity in Japan, but we don't want to assume that that's always going to be the case.

Click to shrink...

So it seems to me that they don't see Japan as sustainable anymore and wouldn't mind trading the local audience for a broader appeal. That's for MH:W anyway, I'm sure a new portable game will come out for the Japanese market down the line.

 

[silpheed-mcd]

You need to reply to this thread in order to see this content.

 

[Encephalon]

eh, if anything doubting that the public would receive it as a home console is more likely, since it is a better handheld than it is a home console

remember the initial talks about nintendo calling it a home console first and foremost in marketing so that people don't think it's just a portable?

Click to shrink...

As a handheld, the switch is huge, larger than even the 3DS LL. It's similar in concept to the Wii U, except the tablet is the console and it's truly portable. Who knew how the public was going to receive it?

 

[Dunban]

I see the game having long legs reaching 2-2.5m LTD in Japan alone.

Click to shrink...

That is indeed better than most people think.

How would you express that prediction in terms of attach rate?

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Not under my watch will MHW succeed in Japan.

 

[Deleted member 2793]

From the producer himself:
So it seems to me that they don't see Japan as sustainable anymore and wouldn't mind trading the local audience for a broader appeal. That's for MH:W anyway, I'm sure a new portable game will come out for the Japanese market down the line.

Click to shrink...

That's exactly what I'm criticizng. To call selling more than 10M per gen in a country is something that sounds utterly insane, specially when you look at how their franchises underperform everywhere. Using Tsujimoto's bizarre obssession with the West as justification is part of why I'm skeptical of this -- while other JP companies try to juggle between the two markets and get good results because of it (Square Enix, for example), Capcom completely abandons Japan. We'll see if someday a new portable MonHun is released if this move will have some negative impact on it.

 

[Jpop]

Sorry, was going to get back to you and then I forgot.

If the reception is positive and fans are happy with the game,I see the game having long legs reaching 2-2.5m LTD in Japan alone. I'm not sure about western sales, but we can at least say it will hit 1 million like the 3DS games.

Click to shrink...

Let me get this right, you think a PS4 game can sell over 2m copies?

I can't help but chuckle.

 

[Kelanflyter]

I think my stance on its sales potential sit somewhere in the middle, where I think the new eye candy will be enough to attract new players in the west but not enough to off set the decline in Japan.
So somewhere like 1.5mil west and 1.5mil Jp, which will still make it the highest console monhun sales to date.

Click to shrink...

This is good prediction i think. But it won't worth it for Capcom.

MHW is clearly a bigger production budget than previous entries. And even if the game cost more (60$ instead of 35/40$ in US) it won't cover the more expensive cost of the game for Capcom.

MHW is a big bet for Capcom. They probably want to sells way more games than previous entries.

 

[Chris1964]

It is a PS4 "Exclusive" in Japan because on the X1 sells around 200 units a week. You will see lots of Japanese titles skip the X1 in Japan but still releases on it outside of the country.

It has nothing to do with exclusivity clauses.

Click to shrink...

Monster Hunter World is the first PS4/XB1 Capcom game that is not released in Japan.

 

[BishopLamont]

MH4 was never released outside Japan. Only Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate was. And regarding the Japanese sales of that game:

610./213. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate [Best Price!] <ACT> (Capcom) {2015.07.30} (¥3.490) - 3.632 / 31.916 (-87%) (1.951 <12,63%>)
825./033. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate # <ACT> (Capcom) {2014.10.11} (¥5.800) - 1.711 / 2.559.186 (-99%) (1.446.289 <85,40%>)

Source: the Media Create Sales CY 2016 thread on the other forum. That's ~2.6M copies.

That same thread gives this number for MH4 tho:

462./309. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 # <ACT> (Capcom) {2013.09.14} (¥5.705) - 6.410 / 3.376.892 (-62%) (1.715.060 <91,96%>)

The numbers on Capcom's website are retailer shipments, and these numbers are Media Create sold-through estimates. The difference between 3.37M and 4.1M is a bit too big to my liking tbh...

Click to shrink...

3DS releases got to 4m because of western sales. They didn't reach 4m in Japan alone.

Click to shrink...

Famitsu Retail - 25. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 <ACT> (Capcom) {2013.09.14} - 3.556.119
Famitsu Digital - 02. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 <ACT> (Capcom) {2013.09.14} – 306.294

Total: 3.862.413

Capcom Press: MH4 tops 4M in Japan
http://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/news/html/e131204.html

 

[Herb Alpert]

Sorry, was going to get back to you and then I forgot.

If the reception is positive and fans are happy with the game,I see the game having long legs reaching 2-2.5m LTD in Japan alone. I'm not sure about western sales, but we can at least say it will hit 1 million like the 3DS games.

Click to shrink...

That wouldn't be an expansion for the brand though.

 

[Deleted member 26697]

How's the stock issue in Japanese stores?

I'm thinking of picking up a Switch in Japan for Xenoblade 2.

 

[CeroMiedo]

How's the stock issue in Japanese stores?

I'm thinking of picking up a Switch in Japan for Xenoblade 2.

Click to shrink...

still having stock issues afaik

 

[Jpop]

Monster Hunter World is the first PS4/XB1 Capcom game that is not released in Japan.

Click to shrink...

I know.

There can be 2 options as to why it is not releasing on XB1 in Japan.

1. Capcom has realized it is not worth supporting the title in Japan with the X1's user-base.

-This can be attributed possibly to the fact MH is primarily played by Japanese gamers, and a lot of the X1 games purchased are bought by expats and U.S. military who while would purchase games such as Street Fighter, Resident Evil and Dragon's Dogma most likely would not as likely be to purchase MH.

My belief is that they just don't see it financially frugal to release on the X1. Though Capcom's decisions never make sense, so it could be anything.

2. Sony has an exclusivity deal on consoles in Japan only.

-Option 2 makes little sense if the game is simply releasing on PS4/X1/PC as the X1 user-base is insignificant and would have no impact on Japanese sales, same with the PC. Option 2 only makes sense if someone thinks it would release on the Switch as well.

I'd rather not speculate onto deals I have no knowledge of, so of course I would go with option 1.

 

[Chris1964]

Every recent Capcom XB1 gets only digital release. There is no reason not giving neither that option for the supposed big game of FY when everything else gets it.