So when initially with ps3, psv and PS4 versions the PS4 ones sold less it clearly was sign of unsuccessfully third party sales on the new platform
Right?
Media Create Sales: Week 50, 2017 (Dec 11 - Dec 17)
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So when initially with ps3, psv and PS4 versions the PS4 ones sold less it clearly was sign of unsuccessfully third party sales on the new platform
Right?
One statement hardly invadilates the other. Yes it seems good to migrate to the Switch now, but it takes time to build an audience on a platform that is still supply constrained. Rome wasn't built in a day and all that.
Here are the top selling PS4 games with digital ratio.
Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age 10.27
Final Fantasy XV 8.50
Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition 55.72
Grand Theft Auto V [All Versions] 7.77
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain [All Versions] 11.66
Dark Souls III [All Versions] 15.58
NieR: Automata 17.13
Persona 5 11.88
Call of Duty: Black Ops III [All Versions] 6.96
Yakuza 6: The Song of Life 6.60
Resident Evil 7: biohazard [All Versions] 8.48
Battlefield 1 24.80
Dragon Quest Heroes: The World Tree's Woe and the Blight Below 8.53
Battlefield 4 [All Versions] 65.23
Bloodborne [All Versions] 26.75
Dragon Quest Heroes II: The Twin Kings and Prophecy's End 13.17
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege 27.38
Fallout 4 [All Versions] 18.51
Horizon: Zero Dawn [All Versions] 23.92
Dragon Quest Builders 16.75
Tales of Berseria 9.97
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands 16.38
Star Wars: Battlefront 11.53
Gran Turismo Sport 16.03
Nioh [All Versions] 22.05
Battlefield: Hardline [All Versions] 47.35
Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare 11.55
Gundam Versus 23.35
Uncharted 4: A Thief's End 12.57
Kingdom Hearts HD II.8 Final Chapter Prologue 8.92
Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 12.45
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt [All Versions] 11.84
Tom Clancy's The Division 21.59
Overwatch 21.55
Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes [All Versions] 14.19
Average = 18.5
I excluded outliers Knack(bundled launch game) and Assasin's Creed games(Extremely cheap), but even factor these the digital ratio is higer than 15%.
A more accurate statement would be that digital ratio is 15%-20% with the trend that the ratio is growing over each year.
But that's being ingenuous. The conversation was about growth in PS console software over a decade. You were disparaging it by misrepresenting sales figures.
Yes, I misread the bolded.
I think's it's arguable. The increased support PS4 has gotten this year is mainly from the fact that Japanese pubs see the opportunity of it's large base in ROW and circumstance of development rather than a forced transition from dying paltforms. There are vita titles that are going PS4 exclusive, but these are uncommon.
Battlefield/Rainbow games were also really cheap. Did you also excluded Minecraft? I hope so because there's no way the average is >18%.
Well, Atelier games have always been released on Sony platforms so they are strong linked to people buying Sony hardware. Even if they own a Nintendo platform, it might well be they buy the game for Switch. When PSV version would not be around, I am expecting more people to jump on Switch for such software as well.
It was forced but the Vita was a sinking ship so that transition was going to happen regardless so for me it was eat the losses and attempt to build up an audience on the PS4 as quickly as possible.
No, i think you guys might be missing my point a bit. Maybe i could have explained it better. One of the bigger talking points in this thread has been about that 3rd parties are missing out on the Switch because they didnt plan better for it. The arguement there is that 3rd parties are leaving money on the table, or in other words, they should be successful if they release their games on the Switch. This should also translate to games like Atelier, in my opinion. Why not expect that Atelier should have be successful on the Switch as well in this case? My point is a bit the same that Kresnik mention, about Switch taking over for the Vita.
And a split of 10k/15k/25k first week isnt that bad i think.
I mean they had written off Nintendo's future console largely so I don't think that was too much of factor but there was a bit of no man's land in terms of future avenues where the PS4 was a big risk but had the highest potential.
I mean your example plainly displays their point a 20% of your userbase for your first entry on the system is leaving money on the table for such a small series. Being near launch also typically means a reasonable chance at good legs.
So in my continuing series on "PS4 3rd party metrics that Mantis discredits", I went beyond my arbitrary 100K number and looked at PS4 support even broader- 50K and up sellers from Japanese 3rd parties.
2014 (first 9 months-ish after launch): 4 total Japanese developed 3rd party games selling above 50K
2015: (equivalent to Switch's 2018): 13
2016: 32
So far the only work in progress comparison is PS4 2014 versus Switch 2017- So far Switch has 5 with 3 more pretty likely (Mana collection, Puyo Tetris, and Sumikko Gurashi)
2014 (first 9 months-ish after launch): 4 total Japanese developed 3rd party games selling above 50K
2015: (equivalent to Switch's 2018): 13
2016: 32
So far the only work in progress comparison is PS4 2014 versus Switch 2017- So far Switch has 5 with 3 more pretty likely (Mana collection, Puyo Tetris, and Sumikko Gurashi)
I'd add that unlike Vita Switch is viable in the West so world wide sales play a factor (i.e Disgaea/NIS)
Michael Jordan and I have an average of 3 NBA championships.
The majority of those games are around that 10-15% range, with a couple of massive outliers like the Battlefield games.
There won't be any delays Wednesday will there for the numbers? Could an early report happen since Switch should pass 3 Million?
I think you're misunderstanding. I'm saying that it would be a bit disappoining of the new Atelier game doesnt see success on the Switch because many have argued about exactly that, that publisher should put their games on the Switch because then they will sell. Now they have put e.g Atelier on the Switch, so based on the earlier points, Atelier should also see success on the Switch, dont you agree?
I don't think supporting Switch means, in every case, "you'll have your best sales ever!" or that "you'll sell more there than on PS4 (in Japan)!"
It is that there is going to be much more potential room to sell to Japan on Switch, which, again, isn't going to mean as much to niche games, that it is another viable platform to add to a multiplatform strategy, and that I think that you can sell traditionally "PS" software on Nintendo platforms.
It is an opportunity and there could be effort required to actualize that opportunity.
I think Switch should be an attractive investment for many Japanese companies that a) could use healthier sales in Japan in particular (but not only there) and b) aren't developing software that can't reasonably be on Switch, which is, well, most Japanese developers.
I want investment into Switch as an investment in a path forward for the Japanese market. I want both Japanese publishers and a more vibrant than expected future for the Japanese domestic console market that allows for a) smaller and more internally directed developers, b) another market to diversify the earnings of big Japanese developers, and c) a wider interest in the industry among Japanese people for a more varied talent pool for the developers.
It is that there is going to be much more potential room to sell to Japan on Switch, which, again, isn't going to mean as much to niche games, that it is another viable platform to add to a multiplatform strategy, and that I think that you can sell traditionally "PS" software on Nintendo platforms.
It is an opportunity and there could be effort required to actualize that opportunity.
I think Switch should be an attractive investment for many Japanese companies that a) could use healthier sales in Japan in particular (but not only there) and b) aren't developing software that can't reasonably be on Switch, which is, well, most Japanese developers.
I want investment into Switch as an investment in a path forward for the Japanese market. I want both Japanese publishers and a more vibrant than expected future for the Japanese domestic console market that allows for a) smaller and more internally directed developers, b) another market to diversify the earnings of big Japanese developers, and c) a wider interest in the industry among Japanese people for a more varied talent pool for the developers.
If for successful you mean slightly less than other versions (because of reasons) at debut week and maybe increasing the LTD numbers arriving to top or surpass vita versions with the first attempts for new brands/audiences I totally agree
We're saying this in a timeline where Disgaea 5 was a runaway success on Switch though.
I know that's taking into account western markets in a Japan sales thread, but if the mindset is "Nintendo gamers haven't had this franchise/this type of niche software for years/it's a franchise associated with Sony" then it shouldn't have done very well - but it did. Shockingly well in fact, enough so to make a whole company pivot their plans.
Of course I'm not saying Atelier should be smashing sales records on Switch (maybe it will in the west and this is a Japan-only phenomenon) but to expect it to debut to meagre numbers for the above reasons I don't really think is just.
Honestly, I don't think the sales of these types of games on Switch so far have really been as good as they should have been - we're not in the 3DS era anymore where a Nintendo handheld can't get a full fat version of Atelier Rorona but instead will get a crappy chibi spinoff and that explains the bad sales - this is the full version of the game on the system that is going to become by far the market leader of its generation.
But again, we're not in the 3DS era anymore. I genuinely believe that this whole "x gamers only game on x consoles/y franchise is associated with z" (and variants thereof) thing is just less relevant these days and was already on a downward slope from the 7th gen. If you're the type of person who buys Atelier, you probably own multiple consoles. And if you're the kind of person who buys Atelier, you probably know that the last couple of games have been not the best quality and are less enthused about this new entry.
I suspect, as sfortunato says, as Vita is dropped Switch will gain what's left of the audience that wants to play Atelier on handhelds. And that'll be fine for Gust (as long as they work on improving the quality of their games so they don't completely run every one of their properties into the ground like they have done with Nights of Azure/Surge Concerto).
If supply is as big as anecdotes suggests might be the case, you could see Switch pass 3M and the Wii U LTD on famitsu.
At the risk of treading old ground it was obvious Vita was a sinking ship before a lot of those franchises even hit the platform, and they totally ignored the 3DS.
Well it's not going to be the same for every brand or genre. Atelier is obviously a franchise much more strongly associated with Playstation and is also much more focused demographically. I'll also point out that I said years ago(in the NX times) that publishers would struggle if they simply showed up with franchises on the 3DS successor and expect gold.
There will be other franchises that absolutely perform strongest on Switch.
This is getting into Disaega 5 territory it doesn't matter whether Atelier specifically does well or not some games just don't do well at specific platforms at launch or whatever time that doesn't change the profitability of a system in terms of third party titles. Just because such and such game bombed on the PS4 doesn't mean third party titles aren't potentially losing money by not releasing games on it.
Where talking about the market leader in Japan and a worldwide successful console. Whether this specific Atelier game is successful or not is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.
I wouldn't be surprised if Atelier doesn't do well. It's the first game to reach the system, and the other games in the trilogy haven't hit Switch as well. At least stuff like Bayonetta 2 came with the original included.
Lets not forget that Disgaea 5 switch bombed in japan, in fact we had a meltdown in the old forum because of that, then the west came and it was a runaway succes with more than 100K preorders, so I wouldnt worry too much.
It will probably end up at least 75% known LTD of the PS4 version.
But didnt the initial sales were less than 10k ? I remember that a good chunk of users were already saying goodbye to japanese 3rd party support because of that.
So a few things. For one, as I recall stuff like battlefield also was given out extremely cheap online as well, Minecraft and anything that didn't launch simultaneous digital and retail I would exclude and even taking all that into consideration, less than half of those games (16 of 35) launched over 15%. I wouldn't average those numbers and estimate 18.5% when not even half the games on the list actually achieved that. Only 12 of those 35 titles surpassed 18.5%. What you have presented is an actual misrepresentation. I will say, 10% is low and I would peg it at 15% (if I was being generous)
To put it in context. The average is 18.5. The median is 14.19 and the mode is 12. And I would absolutely argue the mode and the median are much better indicators than taking the average in this case. We're talking about a number that should be representative of all titles and even 15% by the numbers you given isn't half of them. The ratio is really not anywhere near 20%. Well not any ratio I would use based in statistics anyway.
Dunno what you are going on about but the discussion was always about retail and it was always about how PS4 software was up over PS3. Except as Chris showed it apparently is not. Digital was brought up by someone else as a possible reason but I 1) disagree with that and 2) still find that given how much of an awful blackhole the PS3 was, it's poor that the PS4 hasn't edged it out with better support, less competition and a better price. But no, there is nothing disingenuous given we were never talking about digital.
"...but but the RotW!" is an awful reason to not put something on Switch. It is a good reason to choose PS4. And perhaps you can only choose one platform (budget/time concern) or there isn't sufficient reason to additionally choose Switch, but it isn't itself a reason to not choose Switch:
a) Switch is sold abroad too, and is, so far, selling well abroad at that
b) Choosing Switch does not mean not choosing PS4
So "take losses in Japan and make them up elsewhere" just seems kind of silly to me. Ideally you could try and retain sales in Japan through refreshing your franchises and trying to get on popular platforms in the territory and try for sales abroad. There is nothing saying you must take losses in Japan on the chin and move on. That's a choice that perhaps circumstances compel you to make or that you just choose to make.
a) Switch is sold abroad too, and is, so far, selling well abroad at that
b) Choosing Switch does not mean not choosing PS4
So "take losses in Japan and make them up elsewhere" just seems kind of silly to me. Ideally you could try and retain sales in Japan through refreshing your franchises and trying to get on popular platforms in the territory and try for sales abroad. There is nothing saying you must take losses in Japan on the chin and move on. That's a choice that perhaps circumstances compel you to make or that you just choose to make.
Yeah, "success" in itself can be several of things. I wasnt talking about outselling the other platforms by 10:1 or something like that, just to have mentioned that. Success can also be relatively close to what the other platforms are selling, for example.
Thats true, it wont be for every game, and i think that is an important than just a general "put every game on (insert platform here)".
Well, that is true, but on the flip side, if smaller games have success on the Switch, should we then argue that this doesnt mean anything in the grand scheme of things if people talk about its success? It does matter to the specific publisher in question, and i dont think theres any problem talking about individual games' performances, and if they do good, ok or bad.
Many of those Ubisoft and EA games went for peanuts many times on the JP psn shop during sales, which that person would know if he followed MC threads.
Mind you those ratios are based on digital sales we have gotten for these titles mostly only during first month as after that most disappear from next monthly Famitsu estimation chart and we hardly get any LTD digital sales for any titles.
This is one small game the point I was making is that you'd need a far larger sample size to making any arguments one way or another and thus making that arguement on this specific game isn't worthwhile.
We have the ltd's the 3rd party games so far released on the switch and their actually pretty decent in terms of legs so bringing this specific argument now is pretty weird. I'd wait for a few more such under performers before making that point.
I was thinking, what kind of sales are you guys expecting for Dragon Quest Builder ? It is a late port, the DQ fanbase has been attracted on Switch, the game is well priced and a good fit for portable play. 100k+ FW should be doable ?
Sure but that's probably not going to be the case for Atelier anyway. It will do enough compared to the other SKUs to justify it, and it's also the only platform with any prospect for growth in the future.
Heck no. It will be lucky to reach 100K LTD. Its a 2 year old port of a game getting a sequel later in the year
Didn't know that, thats good to hear, that makes past reactions concerning 3rd party support because of this title even more ridiculous.
I had to read that twice. That would be a fun story. Lol.
That's what I initially thought but Xenoverse 2 relative performance on Switch compared to PS4 gave me some doubts. The port was in pretty much the same situation as DQB (DBFZ announced before its release, late port plus full price and without any DLC in this case).
Hey I'm right here...
...and it's still slightly below the original releases first week and that original release was also a bomb.
You declared the death of 3rd party support based on 2 days sales of a 40K LTD game.
Switch becoming a Vita successor more often then not was not meant as a compliment. I agree with Alrus that in general you need consistant effort to build an audience.
Can you explain why you find it pretty weird to expect Atelier to also be positively affected by the Switch's momentum? I find that pretty weird :P
I think you're reading much more into what i'm saying. I'm not talking about one small game as proof of 3rd party support in general. That would be silly :P =) I'm saying that it would be a bit disappointing if Atelier doesnt see positively sales due to Switch momentum, especially when several of people have argued that 3rd party really need to get on the Switch. Atelier should also be included in that arguement. I can admit that my arguement was a small "snide" (not sure if that is the right word) towards "every game should be on Switch", but i still think Atelier should be included in the arguement as well.
Yeah, its possible, but we'll see :)
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Actually what I specifically said was that the failure of Disgaea 5 would discourage other Sony/Vita publishers from attempting to bring their franchises to Switch and thus the Switch wouldn't absorb the Vita audience.
Well, since then NIS has stated numerous times they are Switch/PS4 going forward.
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