Before the holidays the Switch and the 3DS were neck and neck launch aligned. During holidays the Switch, still heavily supply constrained, couldn't reach the same heights, but there was this sense that maybe it could have gotten close if there was enough stock. Now in February, the Switch has fallen way behind the 3DS baseline.
So what happened? Is is the price, the games, the stocks? What made the 3DS so much more desirable in Q1 2012?
- Switch has been supply constrained for the majority of 2018 in Japan. Even if we are seeing anecdotal evidence demand leveling off this week, that hasn't been the case the previous 6 weeks.
- There is also a distinct lack of games during Jan/Feb on the Switch compared to March/April, I think that's one of the reasons Stardew Valley got such a big promotion in Japan(featured in the mini-direct, features in tons of Japanese eShop articles etc). This type of release schedule obviously to a degree effected Switch baseline, once we get a regular stream of big and mid range games it makes the device more attractive.
Jan/Feb retail releases: Mario + Rabbids, Skyrim, Gal Metal!, Cave Story+, Bayonetta 2, Rayman Legends,
March retail releases: Doom, Dragon Quest Builders, Gal Gun 2, Attack On Titan 2, Steins Gate Elite, Winning Post 8 2018, Kirby, Monster Energy Supercross, PriPara, Hyrule Warriors,
April retail releases: Snack World, Neo Atlas 1469, Portal Knights, Labo Variety, Labo Robot, SD Gundam G,
I don't think we actually know the full list of retail games for April, since it appears some ports/games get announced with less than 2 months to launch. But in anycase this demonstrates that release schedule was pretty much concentrated on March/April compared to January/February and I think in part the reason was because 3rd party's probably know when to expect larger quantities of hardware being available at retailers. Usually we see a large shipment for the end of FY so in March, and I think Labo will be a major reason we would see a strong April as well.
In terms of May I think that there is a lot yet to be announced in terms of smaller and mid range releases, while Mario Tennis Aces also doesn't have a release date and I'd expect a bigger unannounced game to launch May/June. Granted a lot of these titles are small games but the difference in terms of number of retail releases between January & February compared to March/April is very substantial.
- Sony has better Q1 in terms of games targeting Japan compared to Nintendo majority of years since it allows them to market Japanese games in the West during a part of the year where big publishers generally don't launch that many titles(outside of Ubisoft). This year specifically they have the biggest PS4 release in the form of MHW but it sort of took the air out of other lesser PS4 titles so it's not a surprise it might have also effected Switch to a degree.
- 3DS was riding high on it's evergreens which were released in Nov/Dec of 2011. Another factor is that it had a better lineup during January/February, currently the only Switch game to be released in 2018 that has surpassed
100K is Mario+Rabbids. Overall starting March Switch begins to have a much stronger lineup than 3DS
Notable Launches on 3DS and sales before Week 10:
Resident Evil: Revelations(Week 4) –
163.906 / 251.560
New Love Plus(Week 7) –
104.969 / 113.613
Theatrhythm Final Fantasy(Week 7) –
67.206 / 99.532
Harvest Moon: The Land of Origin(Week 8) –
81.131 / 108.509