Media Create Sales: Week 7, 2020 (Feb 10 - Feb 16)

Oregano · Feb 21, 2020

fiendcode said:
Every console market globally shrank this gen. Japan is still the second largest national console market by a large margin despite that though.

Without trying to come off as snarky the enthusiast audience on places like ERA didn't/don't give a crap about portables or the Wii losing marketshare, as long as their core experience home console is stable. The reason Japan's shrinking market is an issue is because it affected home consoles a lot more than portable.

mclem · Feb 21, 2020

Oregano said:
On the Koei Tecmo & Dynasty Warriors note they're teasing announcements for this year as it's the 20th Anniversary. They were teasing Samurai Warriors 5 last year as well so possibly a big year for them.

Have they ever released a collection? The way the games are structured could make that somewhat interesting (all running on the same engine, so you're really just accessing different campaigns that reuse the same assets and can see how the progression mechanics evolve over time?)

Opa-Opa · Feb 21, 2020

993 copies? That's... a MOAB alright.

Chris1964 · Feb 21, 2020

Kaworu said:
In Japan software companies don't take software back if the retailers cannot sell it, so Sega doesn't unilaterally decide the amount of copies to produce.

They decide to print or not more copies than ordered from retailers if they see actual demand isn't what retailers suggest.

fiendcode · Feb 21, 2020

Oregano said:
Without trying to come off as snarky the enthusiast audience on places like ERA didn't/don't give a crap about portables or the Wii losing marketshare, as long as their core experience home console is stable. The reason Japan's shrinking market is an issue is because it affected home consoles a lot more than portable.

Xbox lost userbase in every market though too. You must mean ERA doesn't care so long as PlayStation is stable. ;)

Although actually PS4/XBO are set to fall behind 360/PS3 in the US too this year, so even among HD Coreboxes the American console market is a shrinking one.

Oregano · Feb 21, 2020

mclem said:
Have they ever released a collection? The way the games are structured could make that somewhat interesting (all running on the same engine, so you're really just accessing different campaigns that reuse the same assets and can see how the progression mechanics evolve over time?)

It would be interesting but not sure how much a market there is considering how iterative each game is. Maybe it would make sense to remaster the spinoffs into a collection with DW9. So stuff like Tactics, Vs, Fighter's Battle, maybe DW Next?

konoka · Feb 21, 2020

Maybe I'm too late but

hiska-kun said:
First Day Sell-through {2020.02.20}

[PS4] Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers # <RPG> (Atlus) (¥8.800) - 50%
[NSW] Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers # <RPG> (Atlus) (¥8.800) - 70%

[PS4] Katana Kami: A Way of the Samurai Story <ADV> (Spike Chunsoft) (¥3.980) - 40%
[NSW] Katana Kami: A Way of the Samurai Story <ADV> (Spike Chunsoft) (¥3.980) - 50%

this is wrong.
The blog says sell-through are in range 50-70% and 40-50%.

ggx2ac · Feb 21, 2020

z0m3le said:
I'd love to know why you think a higher priced console, finding many of it's exclusives going multiplatform next gen, and even with your own possibility of the Xbox finding some success in Japan, will somehow mean that the PS5 can only lose 1 Million units after 6 years on the market.

Everything is consolidating around single platforms. No more 3DS, no more Vita.

Just like how Nintendo had to consolidate their home console and handheld lines because they were stretched thin on resources for developing games for two separate platforms. The same occurred for Sony and third parties on PS4 and Vita. Japanese third party developers will now only have one Sony platform to develop for, this means the PS5 will have a stronger catalogue of games on one platform compared to its predecessor.

Meanwhile, even though multiplatform development has become easier especially for porting games, the Switch is still lacking AAA titles from Japanese third parties. I don't see the situation changing anytime soon when things didn't change in the last three years despite Switch succeeding.

By the way, I'm not predicting that the PS5 will sell 8 million units lifetime. Maybe it will do better than the PS4. Things are too uncertain when we don't even have launch details.

I just think that predicting Vita lifetime sales numbers looks at only everything that can go wrong with the PS5 which doesn't make sense when PS5 is expected to have a stronger start with third party support compared to how the transition went from PS3 to PS4.

There's no separate Handheld platform to take sales away from the PS5, the PS4 may still get cross-gen support for a while but the kind of people buying a PS4 this late in the cycle wouldn't have been deciding between a PS4 and PS5 in the first place. You buy the PS5 if you're expecting to want to play new games over time and not have new titles slow down to a handful after two years.

There, I have given you my opinion on why I don't think the PS5 will sell like the Vita in lifetime sales unless something catastrophic happens at PS5's launch.

z0m3le · Feb 21, 2020

ggx2ac said:
I just think that predicting Vita lifetime sales numbers looks at only everything that can go wrong with the PS5 which doesn't make sense when PS5 is expected to have a stronger start with third party support compared to how the transition went from PS3 to PS4.

Yeah, this is very true, it's a danger for everyone, confirmation bias is one of the most difficult things to deal with on forums like these.

I did try to give it a fair range of 5 Million to 7 Million based on just general trends we see, it's possible another big hit happens like monster hunter in Japan though, and if Sony picks that up as an exclusive, it could sell better than the PS4 sure. I think you have to cut me a bit of slack on this sales range though, it's just speculation from where I see it, I'm trying to avoid my own bias opinion on these things, and just looking at Sony losing more exclusives with them going multiplatform. We will see what ultimately happens, but in the meantime, we can only speculate based on historic and current trends, which points to another decline IMO.

EDIT: Also in Japan, Capcom did bring RE7 to the Switch, Persona 5S is coming to the switch and is a sequel, with the american' atlus wanting to put Persona 5R on the Switch too. Square Enix looked into putting FF15 on the Switch, DQ11 came to the Switch as well... I think we will see more of that as streaming becomes more common too, things like Switch's performance simply doesn't matter when you are streaming to the platform.

Kaworu · Feb 21, 2020

Chris1964 said:
They decide to print or not more copies than ordered from retailers if they see actual demand isn't what retailers suggest.

Yeah, that's why I said it's not unilateral. As they take into account the orders from the retailers to predict how many extra copies should be produced.

Fularu · Feb 21, 2020

Kaworu said:
Yeah, that's why I said it's not unilateral. As they take into account the orders from the retailers to predict how many extra copies should be produced.

Constant undershipping means it's on Sega and not on retailers since Switch software rarely (if ever) underperforms

Jimmy Joe · Feb 21, 2020

ggx2ac said:
Everything is consolidating around single platforms. No more 3DS, no more Vita.

Just like how Nintendo had to consolidate their home console and handheld lines because they were stretched thin on resources for developing games for two separate platforms. The same occurred for Sony and third parties on PS4 and Vita. Japanese third party developers will now only have one Sony platform to develop for, this means the PS5 will have a stronger catalogue of games on one platform compared to its predecessor.

What significant Japanese third-party games was the PS4 missing that you anticipate the PS5 will now get?

test_account · Feb 21, 2020

Marukoban said:
I doubt the early access matters for Japanese market, especially so for Dreams for which 993 here is just atrocious.
In general, I don't think early access influence the game's performance as much as people here think.
Early access is aimed at the most hardcore audience, which is a very small market segment.
There are lots of games with early access, yet still manage to launch successfully.

I agree. I just wanted to comment on it since you said that the game was 7 years in developement and launched with 993 copies sold. You're not wrong about that when it comes to the retail release, but since there was also an early access version (if that was available in Japan), the game did in a sense actually launch about a year ago, which should have affected the sales in some fashion, and should in that case have sold more than 993 copies by now. I just wanted to mention that =) But like you say, i dont think its a major difference in the number of copies sold, i agree with that.

mclem said:
I can't help but think it's very much a "Let's wait and see what the PS5 will do for the franchise" game for some people. I'm certainly interested, but I've no overwhelming need to own it now. Indeed, I'd be unsurprised if there's an intent for a relaunch at that point, and I'm content to wait and see until then.

Yeah, i've also been thinking about if the PS5 will change anything for the game, perhaps a relaunch as you mention. Maybe it will be a launch/launch window title for the PS5. I'm not sure it will really do that much more though. Its basically a tool to create games (and play other people's creations of course) instead of being a game where you create things (like e.g Minecraft is).

ggx2ac · Feb 21, 2020

Jimmy Joe said:
What significant Japanese third-party games was the PS4 missing that you anticipate the PS5 will now get?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'm not a fortune teller, I'm just pointing out that third parties with a lack of resources had to choose between supporting PS4 or Vita and not both.

This obviously affected PS4 in its early years when titles were coming to Vita but not also PS4.

Next gen won't have that same issue.

RPGamer2 · Feb 21, 2020

konoka said:
Maybe I'm too late but

this is wrong.
The blog says sell-through are in range 50-70% and 40-50%.

Is this for each individual title?

fiendcode · Feb 21, 2020

ggx2ac said:
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'm not a fortune teller, I'm just pointing out that third parties with a lack of resources had to choose between supporting PS4 or Vita and not both.

This obviously affected PS4 in its early years when titles were coming to Vita but not also PS4.

Next gen won't have that same issue.

Sony heavily incentivized Vita -> PS4 support with their ecosystem approach (much like PS3 -> PS4). Vita wasn't so much a competitor for PS4, if anything Sony pushing this pathway was a net benefit to PS4 and also another advantage PS5 won't see.

schuelma · Feb 21, 2020

ggx2ac said:
There, I have given you my opinion on why I don't think the PS5 will sell like the Vita in lifetime sales unless something catastrophic happens at PS5's launch.

That's fair. I would argue in response that PS4 benefited in many ways from the PS3/Vita ecosystem- IMO it looked like a lot of its early support was just piggybacking PS3/Vita versions of games to prop up support.

Marukoban · Feb 21, 2020

schuelma said:
That's fair. I would argue in response that PS4 benefited in many ways from the PS3/Vita ecosystem- IMO it looked like a lot of its early support was just piggybacking PS3/Vita versions of games to prop up support.

PS5 will piggyback PS4 games for years. Aside from SE and Capcom, no Japanese publisher has any need for better graphically intensive hardware.

PS5 will start out stronger than PS4 because unlike PS3/PS4 transition, now there's no need to spend additional resources to get PS4 games to run on PS5. Most 3rd party games going forward will be multiplatform Switch/PS4/PS5, so PS5 will be in better position software wise.

ggx2ac · Feb 21, 2020

schuelma said:
That's fair. I would argue in response that PS4 benefited in many ways from the PS3/Vita ecosystem- IMO it looked like a lot of its early support was just piggybacking PS3/Vita versions of games to prop up support.

PS4 didn't have much going for it since PS3 screwed over third party developers with how difficult it was to develop HD games for.

Compared to now, Unreal Engine is the defacto middleware for Japanese third parties to develop HD games. Japanese third parties have had years to recover from the PS3 era.

So now the PS5 will be backwards compatible with the PS4 so it won't be losing out on any titles but we don't know yet what benefits the next gen iterations of third party middleware like Unreal Engine will bring.

konoka · Feb 21, 2020

RPGamer2 said:
Is this for each individual title?

50-70% for P5S (PS4/Switch)
40-50% for KATANAKAMI (PS4/Switch)
Which SKU have higher sell-through are not specified.

fiendcode · Feb 21, 2020

Marukoban said:
PS5 will piggyback PS4 games for years. Aside from SE and Capcom, no Japanese publisher has any need for better graphically intensive hardware.

PS5 will start out stronger than PS4 because unlike PS3/PS4 transition, now there's no need to spend additional resources to get PS4 games to run on PS5. Most 3rd party games going forward will be multiplatform Switch/PS4/PS5, so PS5 will be in better position software wise.

Exclusivity matters though, again while the ecosystem approach lead to a lot of multiplatform releases upfront they were all still within the PS wheelhouse. Switch upends this, imagine if most PS3/4/Vita games were also on 3DS. I disagree PS5 will really be in a better position than PS4 was primarily due to the harsher and more directly competitive element Switch brings versus 3DS.

schuelma · Feb 21, 2020

fiendcode said:
Exclusivity matters though, again while the ecosystem approach lead to a lot of multiplatform releases upfront they were all still within the PS wheelhouse. Switch upends this, imagine if most PS3/4/Vita games were also on 3DS. I disagree PS5 will really be in a better position than PS4 was primarily due to the harsher and more directly competitive element Switch brings versus 3DS.

what he said

Chris1964 · Feb 21, 2020

PS5 going multiplatform with PS4 - Switch hurts it and not benefits it. Exclusives is the only way PS5 will be seen as serious alternative choice in the eyes of mass market.

Lelouch0612 · Feb 21, 2020

PS3 in 2013 : 821.000 units
PS3 in 2014 : 445.000 units sold
PS4 in 2014 (March launch) : 925.000 units sold

PS4 in 2020 : <500.000 units
PS4 in 2021 : <250.000 units
PS5 in 2020 & 2021 : ?

IronTed · Feb 21, 2020

Unless PS5 gets notable software in the first few years it probably won't matter either way. The biggest advantage will be that it may get MHW2 (or whatever they call it) early on (certainly I would expect it before mid 2023, which corresponds roughly to when the PS4 got FFXV).

mclem · Feb 21, 2020

test_account said:
Yeah, i've also been thinking about if the PS5 will change anything for the game, perhaps a relaunch as you mention. Maybe it will be a launch/launch window title for the PS5. I'm not sure it will really do that much more though. Its basically a tool to create games (and play other people's creations of course) instead of being a game where you create things (like e.g Minecraft is).

Oh, yes, my thoughts about it being relaunched for the PS5 are not really "maybe that'll cause sales to spike" but more "maybe that's where the focus of the promotional budget has gone"

fiendcode · Feb 21, 2020

IronTed said:
Unless PS5 gets notable software in the first few years it probably won't matter either way. The biggest advantage will be that it may get MHW2 (or whatever they call it) early on (certainly I would expect it before mid 2023, which corresponds roughly to when the PS4 got FFXV).

2023 could bring us up against the NX2 release timeframe. It will be interesting to see if Sony can swing another deal to lock Nintendo out from MH6 or if Capcom plays musical chairs again next gen.

KillerMan91 · Feb 21, 2020

fiendcode said:
2023 could bring us up against the NX2 release timeframe. It will be interesting to see if Sony can swing another deal to lock Nintendo out from MH6 or if Capcom plays musical chairs again next gen.

Considering how MHW has almost shipped 15 million units globally and also did better in Japan than anyone thought I don't think it will be that hard for Sony to strike new deal and there is little to no reasons for Capcom to refuse. Especially if MHW2 is 2022 title so before Switch 2.

Jimmy Joe · Feb 21, 2020

ggx2ac said:
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'm not a fortune teller, I'm just pointing out that third parties with a lack of resources had to choose between supporting PS4 or Vita and not both.

This obviously affected PS4 in its early years when titles were coming to Vita but not also PS4.

Next gen won't have that same issue.

That's well and good, in theory, but I don't see how not having a handheld around is goign to result in a healthier environment for the PS5 compared to the PS4 when the PS4 already has every significant series that isn't made by Nintendo

The PS4 getting back Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest was a massive advantage compared to its predecessor, and also compared to the Vita, but the PS4 still looks like it's going to finish significantly below the PS3 when everything is said and done. I just don't see where the extra software juice is going to come from unless it has multiple Yokai Watch-style breakout hits, which we have no real basis to predict

fiendcode · Feb 21, 2020

KillerMan91 said:
Considering how MHW has almost shipped 15 million units globally and also did better in Japan than anyone thought I don't think it will be that hard for Sony to strike new deal and there is little to no reasons for Capcom to refuse. Especially if MHW2 is 2022 title so before Switch 2.

Iceborne stumbled comparably though and only sold around as well as the older G-ranks globally (and appreciably worse in Japan), plus we'll have to see how Ichinose's Gen 5 title does. When it comes to MH I don't see any foregone conclusions as to where or when it lands, Capcom loves to surprise.

One thing I do think hurting it's chances of Nintendo bringing it back though is the loss of Iwata. MH was a central property that he targeted specifically above all others (barring maybe DQ) and without him I somewhat doubt they'd have secured 3/4.

hrœrekr · Feb 21, 2020

IronTed said:
Unless PS5 gets notable software in the first few years it probably won't matter either way. The biggest advantage will be that it may get MHW2 (or whatever they call it) early on (certainly I would expect it before mid 2023, which corresponds roughly to when the PS4 got FFXV).

Would be very risky for a third party to launch a big game like MH without the install base. I can see premature announcements trying to push customers to upgrade, but not launching exclusives on the first years.

jnWake · Feb 21, 2020

I'm pretty sure the reason PS4 wasn't a breakout success is because it lacked the amazingly attractive software that released on the super succesful PS Vita.

Fisico · Feb 21, 2020

konoka said:
50-70% for P5S (PS4/Switch)
40-50% for KATANAKAMI (PS4/Switch)
Which SKU have higher sell-through are not specified.

Is that a first ?
Sellthrough was always given for each SKU before, did anything changed in the way he published this time?

Chris1964 · Feb 21, 2020

What hiska-kun posted for sell-through is correct.

Piston · Feb 21, 2020

Switch Publisher Rankings: Famitsu Week 7, 2020

*Digital sales not included
**The weekly totals were cumulative since the last time I made a chart for Week 2, 2020

Switch Titles over 100k: Famitsu Week 7, 2020

Published Titles over 100k:
1. Nintendo - 23
2. Bandai Namco - 6
3. Pokemon Co. - 3
3. Square-Enix - 3
5. Konami - 2
5. Level 5 - 2
7. Capcom - 1
7. Marvelous - 1
7. Sega - 1
7. Electronic Arts - 1
7. Microsoft Game Studios - 1

Kevinception · Feb 21, 2020

Oregano said:
I don't think it's fair to call Kerotan a troll. He's a PS4 fan and wants the PS4 to do well so will take whatever positives he can from the sales results. There's nothing inherently wrong with that.

what we need is an Xbox fan version of Kerotan to come in these threads and crow all the times Xbox One sales increase WoW

KillerMan91 · Feb 21, 2020

fiendcode said:
Iceborne stumbled comparably though and only sold around as well as the older G-ranks globally (and appreciably worse in Japan), plus we'll have to see how Ichinose's Gen 5 title does. When it comes to MH I don't see any foregone conclusions as to where or when it lands, Capcom loves to surprise.

One thing I do think hurting it's chances of Nintendo bringing it back though is the loss of Iwata. MH was a central property that he targeted specifically above all others (barring maybe DQ) and without him I somewhat doubt they'd have secured 3/4.

I mean for DLC it has done just fine (compared to all other DLC). DLCs never same attach rate as the core game. It's just that with the old G business model Capcom got (at least Japanese consumers) to buy almost the game twice. That doesn't work in west though so they went with more western like business model with MHW.

Piston · Feb 21, 2020

It's funny, at this point, the Switch actually has more titles that have sold 200k-300k than 100k-200k.

NotLiquid · Feb 21, 2020

Chris1964 said:
What hiska-kun posted for sell-through is correct.

Guess Scramble will do better than expected on Switch then. It didn't seem like it'd be doing that great based on some of the previous charts.

Oregano · Feb 21, 2020

Kevinception said:
what we need is an Xbox fan version of Kerotan to come in these threads and crow all the times Xbox One sales increase WoW

That's not a bad idea at all.

KillerMan91 · Feb 21, 2020

Oregano said:
That's not a bad idea at all.

We must restore the balance of this thread.

Oregano · Feb 21, 2020

KillerMan91 said:
We must restore the balance of this thread.

Xbox fans have been silenced for too long!

Deleted member 51691 · Feb 21, 2020

Kevinception said:
what we need is an Xbox fan version of Kerotan to come in these threads and crow all the times Xbox One sales increase WoW

That would actually be pretty fun lol

foxuzamaki · Feb 21, 2020

Chris1964 said:
PS5 going multiplatform with PS4 - Switch hurts it and not benefits it. Exclusives is the only way PS5 will be seen as serious alternative choice in the eyes of mass market.

Which means we're probably gonna see lot more monster Hunter world situations

RPGamer2 · Feb 21, 2020

*Media Create threads in 2021: How is Sony still getting all these exclusive 3rd party titles ?!?!?"*

The big Japanese publishers are not making games for the Switch, where else are they concentrating their efforts? Stadia? The PS3 and PS4 had terrible first years in Japan. Console price and lack of compelling content will do that. If Sony can take what didn't work for those initial releases and have a lineup that is worth the price (high profile first party games along with high profile 3rd party titles), then it can be something that resonates with Japanese gamers at large. If that means Sony has to play hardball to get it done, I say more power to them. These PS5 doom blowback posts are just tiring.

Kevinception · Feb 21, 2020

Raijinto said:
I've seen people say here that Dreams could be bigger than Minecraft if only Sony were marketing it like it deserves. Safe to say that I disagree with that one. Like Minecraft didn't have a single shred of marketing, or backing from any publisher and it certainly didn't need any to get the ball rolling. With Dreams I'm not even seeing the ball so to speak. It's problem isn't the marketing, it's that give it to 100 random people and they'll be bored within 10 minutes. It's just not that fun, and I don't really see that changing, even if the creations improve over time which they should.

I've said this in various Dreams related threads, but the only way Dreams can be a viable platform like Minecraft and Roblox is to have it on Pc/tablets/phones. Dreams is just Roblox with a much better graphics engine, but it's potential is in the 4 year old-13 year old market. Cause only that market will massively consume and enjoy the type of games Dreams can produce.

And to hit that market you need YouTube and pc and tablet and phone users.

Everywhere said:
Haha I was definitely not expecting that last sentence.

PS5 will probably sell close to 10M like 3/4 did. It's a predictable product - more power and not too risky in terms of innovation. Something like Switch can either go north or south, so it's hard to predict, but a PS5 is just an extension and continuation of what we have been seeing in the last 20 years.

ps5 will have a lot more competition this go around. Switch, streaming growth, and it's own price point. It won't have the psp/vita to help buoy its sales. Contrary to what some others have posted, the vita and psp didn't hinder PlayStation sales. If anything, it helped strengthen the playstation ecosystem in Japan

I imagine the Ps5 to be around Vita sales, in the end.

Kerotan said:
If that's the case why are Sony so hesitant to sell the ps4 for a fair price?

it's precisely because Sony is concerned about the Ps5. Not so much in terms of unit sales, but costs.

there is a good chance Sony will be losing money on the Ps5 to start, more than they are comfortable with. So, selling ps4 with as high as a profit margin as possible for now, will help compensate for that.

cutting that profit won't increase unit sales enough, won't increase software/service revenue enough, to make up for the profit margin loss.

Marukoban said:
Wow ... That's a bomba if there's ever one.
7 years of development to launch at 993 units in Japan.

Makes sense. They know most of Dreams games will be made by Western developers.

Oregano · Feb 21, 2020

RPGamer2 said:
*Media Create threads in 2021: How is Sony still getting all these exclusive 3rd party titles ?!?!?"*

The big Japanese publishers are not making games for the Switch, where else are they concentrating their efforts? Stadia? The PS3 and PS4 had terrible first years in Japan. Console price and lack of compelling content will do that. If Sony can take what didn't work for those initial releases and have a lineup that is worth the price (high profile first party games along with high profile 3rd party titles), then it can be something that resonates with Japanese gamers at large. If that means Sony has to play hardball to get it done, I say more power to them. These PS5 doom blowback posts are just tiring.

To be honest even if PS5 does half of what PS4 has done in Japan it doesn't really matter, publishers will still support it fully. Sony doesn't have to play hardball.

Lelouch0612 · Feb 21, 2020

Oregano said:
To be honest even if PS5 does half of what PS4 has done in Japan it doesn't really matter, publishers will still support it fully. Sony doesn't have to play hardball.

That line of thinking is the same as every firms in a dominant position have before the end of the status quo.

Not saying it will happen but for Sony's sake, I hope they don't believe that.

Oregano · Feb 21, 2020

Lelouch0612 said:
That line of thinking is the same as every firms in a dominant position have before the end of the status quo.

Not saying it will happen but for Sony's sake, I hope they don't believe that.

Well a Sony exec pretty much said it verbatim to the Wall Street Journal(specifically about smaller games).

Chris1964 · Feb 21, 2020

foxuzamaki said:
Which means we're probably gonna see lot more monster Hunter world situations

There isn't any big third party game left that Sony can moneyhat for exclusivity expect Dragon Quest.

Media Create Sales: Week 7, 2020 (Feb 10 - Feb 16)

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