There isn't anything i know that could prove of disprove it, so i suppose it's a possibility.
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Metal Gear Solid Mafia Redux |OT| I'll Die After I Kill You
- Thread starter Natiko
- Start date
There isn't anything i know that could prove of disprove it, so i suppose it's a possibility.
Yeah that tracks.
oh also maybe i missed confirmation or it just went without saying, but im guess you cured yourself the next night?
I didn't, i asked Nat and he said i couldn't cure myself (it wasn't mentioned in the role pm).
ah fuck yeah now i remember.
I would apologise for being so scatter-brained with remembering all this mechanics talk, but honestly id rather just blame Nat for making this crazy game, completely unfair making this into exactly the kind of game i signed up for.
I think this is how I would lean right now. It's a hard game this one isn't it.
Scum Lean
Fanto is a tricky one. I could sit here and swap her for someone on the null list quite easily but being on ATP's list doesn't help.
There's so much messiness between Kalor, Vere and both are on ATP's list.
Faddy vs Zeke still going on but I do understand it. Faddy feels too all in on Zeke to be scum but not ruling that out as a play.
I don't feel good about Nin. Yesterdays role reveal tease was pretty bad.
Sparks not tracking last night could just be sparks but not idea.
The more Kopite posts the better I feel about him but not enough to lean town.
The votes from Neki and Sky yesterday didn't fill me with confidence even though both have explained.
I feel fine with HP and Zipped. Yesterday felt like two paranoid townies.
| Likely Town |
| Monkey |
| Fate |
| Zem |
| Jman |
| Ephi |
| Zipped |
| HP |
| Null |
| Neki |
| Sky |
| Faddy |
| Sparks |
| Leo |
| Nin |
| LP |
| Kopite |
Scum Lean
| Vere |
| Kalor |
| Stan |
| Fanto |
Fanto is a tricky one. I could sit here and swap her for someone on the null list quite easily but being on ATP's list doesn't help.
There's so much messiness between Kalor, Vere and both are on ATP's list.
Faddy vs Zeke still going on but I do understand it. Faddy feels too all in on Zeke to be scum but not ruling that out as a play.
I don't feel good about Nin. Yesterdays role reveal tease was pretty bad.
Sparks not tracking last night could just be sparks but not idea.
The more Kopite posts the better I feel about him but not enough to lean town.
The votes from Neki and Sky yesterday didn't fill me with confidence even though both have explained.
I feel fine with HP and Zipped. Yesterday felt like two paranoid townies.
In non weird format
Likely Town
Monkey[
Fate
Jman
Ephi
Zipped
HP
Null
Neki
Sky
Faddy
Sparks
Leo
Nin
LP
Kopite
Scum Lean
Vere
Kalor
Stan
Fanto
Likely Town
Monkey[
Fate
Jman
Ephi
Zipped
HP
Null
Neki
Sky
Faddy
Sparks
Leo
Nin
LP
Kopite
Scum Lean
Vere
Kalor
Stan
Fanto
Im about to go sleep, please keep on sparks about this, asked twice already and got zilch and id really like to get an answer from him.
You got Stan on your scum list? Was he there before? I haven't had any coffee today and not much sleep so forgive me If I forgot some long running Stan read.
Stan should be null. I dunno why he's there, copy/paste error probably.
Okay, but do you have any insight, reads, ideas, etc?
I think it's not delayed if this is the case.
It's the same thing unless you think they'd be notified once the next night starts if it's delayed?
fox die target N1 - Notified N2 (tells thread day 3)
fox die target N2 - ??? N3 no one notified (day 4 no mention of fox die)
fox die target N3 - Kalor notified N4 (day 5 mentions in thread)
So you are a mason-sleepwalker-monkey-foxdie infector?
Aside from FOXDIE we also have a lot of apparently missing bombs. We saw Bombs as part of Chuggs flip but on Day 5 all we have seen is a single bomb on HP. And we can be reasonably sure there are more bombs because we saw Jman flip as bomb defuser.
I'm listing in order people i am least likely to vote to people I'm most likely to vote. Obviously the top and bottom of the list are town and scum leans, but other people might be there for other reasons (Like Kalor as i already explained, or players with very little activity).
Least likely to vote
Jman
Zem
Faddy
Fate
Monkey
Zipped
HP
Stan
Sky
Kopite
Neki
Ephi
Fanto
Sparks
LP
Nin
Vere
Kalor
Most likely to vote
I might have some scum reads of people who are upper on the list, but imo that is the priority for voting right now
Least likely to vote
Jman
Zem
Faddy
Fate
Monkey
Zipped
HP
Stan
Sky
Kopite
Neki
Ephi
Fanto
Sparks
LP
Nin
Vere
Kalor
Most likely to vote
I might have some scum reads of people who are upper on the list, but imo that is the priority for voting right now
Maybe the foxdie/bomber is the same role or shared factional power in the Patriots team that needs to be used interchangeably (1 night they can bomb, 1 night they can Foxdie)? Might explain things if the Zem timeline a few posts above is accurate.
My guess is the other scum team have been bombed, but they won't tell us to make the pattern of bombing/poisoning more confusing (and it worked, if that's the case).
Maybe. There is also a chance that the two mafia teams are stacking on top of each other.
oh, no I was thinking... never mind, it was dumb, let's just go with "monkey cannot math"
That's true. We wouldn't know if a dead person got bombed/hit.
I don't know if I buy that, if targets intentionally withhold their status that's giving the patriot team reason to side-eye them (although I guess they wouldn't know if they'd been blocked?) and surely the other team wouldn't want to contribute to the patriot wincon either?
Asking for a clear wouldn't be suspicious, they don't really have a reason to withhold from doing so.
This I could buy though.
I don't have anything to do with Foxdie but, I'm also unable to disprove that delaydf infection theory.
Somehow I completely forgot he said that. In my defense, Jman's been a bit of a nonentity since he came back, but it should have clicked even if just because HP stopped talking about it after being somewhat obsessed prior.
He still seemed to do fine while he was dead though
He still seemed to do fine while he was dead though
Jman said he didn't get a notification that it was removed, and neither did HP. Doesn't mean it wasn't removed, but not 100% it did either.
Okay, so... it doesn't make sense for scum to target Kalor for foxdie, we see to be in universal agreement on that.
But it feels like a stretch for Kalor to lie.
But thinking through the game - Hawthorn was a jailer, but it was spun as a "targeted commuter." Does a targeted director/controller or something balance that? So maybe LP was going to visit someone else but got derailed? Because no one else visited Kalor unless he's lying. LP visited. Kalor has foxdie.
This is what I keep coming back to. Since we didn't have ATP's new list, Kalor just straight up making this up doesn't make much sense. It's a 1:1 for no reason unless the scum team is singular and also WAY bigger than we thought and they're about to actually win, but with this many people alive, that can't be the case.
So multiple things could be true here. LP could still be the foxdie person and there could be manipulation. The sticky wicket here though is that LP just comes off towny af to me.
The alternative is that the foxdie is a ninja shot. I actually don't know how that balances with tracks and watches and everything. UGHHHHHH NAT YOU ASSHOLE
But it feels like a stretch for Kalor to lie.
But thinking through the game - Hawthorn was a jailer, but it was spun as a "targeted commuter." Does a targeted director/controller or something balance that? So maybe LP was going to visit someone else but got derailed? Because no one else visited Kalor unless he's lying. LP visited. Kalor has foxdie.
This is what I keep coming back to. Since we didn't have ATP's new list, Kalor just straight up making this up doesn't make much sense. It's a 1:1 for no reason unless the scum team is singular and also WAY bigger than we thought and they're about to actually win, but with this many people alive, that can't be the case.
So multiple things could be true here. LP could still be the foxdie person and there could be manipulation. The sticky wicket here though is that LP just comes off towny af to me.
The alternative is that the foxdie is a ninja shot. I actually don't know how that balances with tracks and watches and everything. UGHHHHHH NAT YOU ASSHOLE
control, redirect, deflect - there are tons of ways for that to happen - plenty of potential roles support it and i mean, it's metal gear.
which opens up approximately 230920395 possibilities and makes night actions harder to read, so that's cool and fun
which opens up approximately 230920395 possibilities and makes night actions harder to read, so that's cool and fun
I still a little confused as to how FoxDie is supposed to work. Namely, I'm not sure why Leo is alive right now. It isn't a straightforward delayed kill, but I'm not sure how flavorwise a virus could be manually detonated.
Since no one has been killed by FoxDie yet, there is a possibility that it can't actually kill anyone, and instead FoxDie just moves the Patriots slightly closer to their alternate win condition. However, so far the theory that they have to alternate between bombs and FoxDie checks out, which would mean that if FoxDie can't kill, the Patriots can only use a lethal command every other turn, which seems kinda weak for a scum team.
I'm just confused here.
Since no one has been killed by FoxDie yet, there is a possibility that it can't actually kill anyone, and instead FoxDie just moves the Patriots slightly closer to their alternate win condition. However, so far the theory that they have to alternate between bombs and FoxDie checks out, which would mean that if FoxDie can't kill, the Patriots can only use a lethal command every other turn, which seems kinda weak for a scum team.
I'm just confused here.
My question would be why would you foxdie Kalor though when it looks like he's going to be voted out soon?
I was thinking, based on some of what we'd seen, that we had a scum team potentially less experienced (sorry, Leo, it was one of the reasons I was hanging so hard on you) but if there's something mucking up the works, that could explain some things.
BUT ON THE OTHER HAND: if there's a targeted manipulation/control/redirect/whatever, that would make sense for Patriots if they don't have a kill. But they wouldn't likely target their foxdie man, because that should also be a Patriot.
So it could be a town role that was the planned visit that's a nexus or whatever. Or a second scumteam nexus role.
I don't know, man. Every explanation I come up with has holes in it. Like nothing is a great fit. There are too many unknowns.
BUT ON THE OTHER HAND: if there's a targeted manipulation/control/redirect/whatever, that would make sense for Patriots if they don't have a kill. But they wouldn't likely target their foxdie man, because that should also be a Patriot.
So it could be a town role that was the planned visit that's a nexus or whatever. Or a second scumteam nexus role.
I don't know, man. Every explanation I come up with has holes in it. Like nothing is a great fit. There are too many unknowns.
yeah, that's the whole thing.
It's only weak for a scum team if there was only one team in the game.
Hmmm.. maybe, but this is a huge game. It would make more sense if we were losing more players than we have been so far.
This is where I'm at:
It is dumb for Kalor to lie.
It is also dumb for scum to foxdie Kalor.
People make bad choices but that's too much dumb.
It is dumb for Kalor to lie.
It is also dumb for scum to foxdie Kalor.
People make bad choices but that's too much dumb.
I don't even know where I'm meant to go with this today.
We have two lists both of which supposedly contain at least one scum.
Zeke's flip was... remarkably uninformative about anything list related, but we have the Zem/ATP list too and we know he had the ability to actually ask that sort of question from his flip. And I wholeheartedly believe Zem.
... that the Zem/ATP list also contains people I already think are scum so that might be helping
Firstly, I just want to be perfectly clear here: I Still Suspect Leo.
Both lists have Leo on them.
His claim is uncountered but also unproven.
We also have Kalor announcing that LP visited them and now they're infected.
My gut says that has to be some sort of frame up because why would anyone do that, but I can't puzzle through the how or the why.
Could it just be a lie?
But if he was hoping it would push out another target so he could avoid being in line for vote off for Yet Another Day you'd think he'd have chosen someone who's acted more suspiciously before now or someone on the list we had at day end.
It could be a suicide play.
Kalor knows he's been in contention for days anyway. This way he gets to take someone else down with him when he flips because he trusts the fact he's scum won't override the fact he really can self watch and he thinks we'll still work off the claim. Whether he pulls down someone from the opposing scum team or a townie off the back of it doesn't really matter, it's still a net win for his team.
But he didn't know we'd have ATPs list, he thought we'd just have Zeke's to pursue, and he's not on that.
Further, LP isn't on that list either. One of them would have been a far easier option to cast shade on.
So.
If it's real and Kalor really got Foxdie and notified as such then I probably have to walk back my Leo is bullshitting conspiracy theory, so I'll put that aside for the moment.
If I assume it's real what are the options then?
1. LP really did foxdie Kalor.
If true it's basically a red check.
There is a big why factor, he is quite possibly the worst target for it.
I don't believe it could be intentional, so I assume someone would have had to fuck with him. Town? Neutral? Opposing scum team?
I'd have to assume he was intending to target someone else, which would mean maybe someone switched targets on him?
If someone switched Kalor and TargetX, would Kalor have been expected to see the switcher as well because they acted on him?
If he would be expected to see the switcher that would rule that out as a possibility.
So then redirect? There's still the "why them" factor when I don't think LP's really been on anyone's radar.
Chucking unknown skills at the suspicious dude seems like fair play, but potentially outing a town power role to the suspicious dude is more dubious.
I guess If LP Did Do It then ultimately, the reasoning doesn't matter except as a side factor.
2. Someone else did it, and Kalor didn't see them.
So. Ninja foxdie.
In this case then we still run into "but why is LP there too?"
If he has an action of his own using it on Kalor is still a whut.
If it was a frame up, could the poisoner's teammate have chucked him into Kalor intentionally hoping to put him on the hook for it?
3. The delay theory is true, it really was Vere
I'm not sure how I feel about the fact Vere is quite literally in this thread commenting on that theory going "Well yeah, it looks like it fits"
It just makes me wonder wtf he's actually covering for by just sitting there and fronting that suspicion.
It seems to fit with the roleblocking, which is a point for it, but still, why.
I don't actually buy his "I just happened to sleepwalk into the guy who wouldn't claim" defense for his visit for a second, but I was thinking more along the lines of a rolecop wanting to try and work out what Kalor was hiding with his previous reluctance to claim. I still don't see why you'd choose to poison him.
4. Someone switched a scum mate with LP?
Which I think was Vere's theory?
Does switching work that way? If you switch the person performing the action does that switch who gets seen? I genuinely haven't got a clue.
Some part of me really wants to just take it at face value and run with it, but I guess the fact I don't trust Kalor is weighing on me and I don't wanna.
I want to try and understand why things are happening so I can work out who might want to do them, but I don't have enough information to try and separate it out. I've coasted through so much of this game that I don't really want to keep doing so, I want to start actually trying to help solve, but this just feels like such a mess to wade through.
I think I should just go back to the lists and try and try and skim through the thread with them in mind and see if anything stands out to me, but that feels somewhat daunting in a thread this size. I doubt I'd actually make it before I got derailed by almost anything else.
We have two lists both of which supposedly contain at least one scum.
Zeke's flip was... remarkably uninformative about anything list related, but we have the Zem/ATP list too and we know he had the ability to actually ask that sort of question from his flip. And I wholeheartedly believe Zem.
... that the Zem/ATP list also contains people I already think are scum so that might be helping
Firstly, I just want to be perfectly clear here: I Still Suspect Leo.
Both lists have Leo on them.
His claim is uncountered but also unproven.
We also have Kalor announcing that LP visited them and now they're infected.
My gut says that has to be some sort of frame up because why would anyone do that, but I can't puzzle through the how or the why.
Could it just be a lie?
But if he was hoping it would push out another target so he could avoid being in line for vote off for Yet Another Day you'd think he'd have chosen someone who's acted more suspiciously before now or someone on the list we had at day end.
It could be a suicide play.
Kalor knows he's been in contention for days anyway. This way he gets to take someone else down with him when he flips because he trusts the fact he's scum won't override the fact he really can self watch and he thinks we'll still work off the claim. Whether he pulls down someone from the opposing scum team or a townie off the back of it doesn't really matter, it's still a net win for his team.
But he didn't know we'd have ATPs list, he thought we'd just have Zeke's to pursue, and he's not on that.
Further, LP isn't on that list either. One of them would have been a far easier option to cast shade on.
So.
If it's real and Kalor really got Foxdie and notified as such then I probably have to walk back my Leo is bullshitting conspiracy theory, so I'll put that aside for the moment.
If I assume it's real what are the options then?
1. LP really did foxdie Kalor.
If true it's basically a red check.
There is a big why factor, he is quite possibly the worst target for it.
I don't believe it could be intentional, so I assume someone would have had to fuck with him. Town? Neutral? Opposing scum team?
I'd have to assume he was intending to target someone else, which would mean maybe someone switched targets on him?
If someone switched Kalor and TargetX, would Kalor have been expected to see the switcher as well because they acted on him?
If he would be expected to see the switcher that would rule that out as a possibility.
So then redirect? There's still the "why them" factor when I don't think LP's really been on anyone's radar.
Chucking unknown skills at the suspicious dude seems like fair play, but potentially outing a town power role to the suspicious dude is more dubious.
I guess If LP Did Do It then ultimately, the reasoning doesn't matter except as a side factor.
2. Someone else did it, and Kalor didn't see them.
So. Ninja foxdie.
In this case then we still run into "but why is LP there too?"
If he has an action of his own using it on Kalor is still a whut.
If it was a frame up, could the poisoner's teammate have chucked him into Kalor intentionally hoping to put him on the hook for it?
3. The delay theory is true, it really was Vere
I'm not sure how I feel about the fact Vere is quite literally in this thread commenting on that theory going "Well yeah, it looks like it fits"
It just makes me wonder wtf he's actually covering for by just sitting there and fronting that suspicion.
It seems to fit with the roleblocking, which is a point for it, but still, why.
I don't actually buy his "I just happened to sleepwalk into the guy who wouldn't claim" defense for his visit for a second, but I was thinking more along the lines of a rolecop wanting to try and work out what Kalor was hiding with his previous reluctance to claim. I still don't see why you'd choose to poison him.
4. Someone switched a scum mate with LP?
Which I think was Vere's theory?
Does switching work that way? If you switch the person performing the action does that switch who gets seen? I genuinely haven't got a clue.
Some part of me really wants to just take it at face value and run with it, but I guess the fact I don't trust Kalor is weighing on me and I don't wanna.
I want to try and understand why things are happening so I can work out who might want to do them, but I don't have enough information to try and separate it out. I've coasted through so much of this game that I don't really want to keep doing so, I want to start actually trying to help solve, but this just feels like such a mess to wade through.
I think I should just go back to the lists and try and try and skim through the thread with them in mind and see if anything stands out to me, but that feels somewhat daunting in a thread this size. I doubt I'd actually make it before I got derailed by almost anything else.
If they switched KALOR he would see it. If anything else got switched, then not. That's why I think not a switch or at least a switch doesn't explain everything.
Kalor was clearly on the choping block today and would be willing to lie about foxdie as a gambit to save himself.
If I lied about FOXDIE then someone else would have been infected. Unless you want to go down the rabbithole of my hypothetical team holding back the poison so I can claim it today, despite that putting us further away from winning rather than closer.
Thats not a rabbit hole at all. I would do something like this if i was scum especially with two teams doing kills.
Getting shade off yourself is better than a kill if it works because your up 1 member.
It's an interesting theory. It assumes a lot of things about how the infections work but discounting choice of target, it's one possible solution.
There is so much WIFOM from you being supportive of that theory.
Yes but I'd consider that bad play.
If I'm looking at my chances from a pure survival point of view, I was doing okay before the start of the day. If anything my vote is more likely after my poison mention today because even if we set aside all the vote lists, my claim has created a form of thunderdome between myself and LP. I could have went into the background and hoped that we focused on Zekes list from yesterday that I wasn't on.
I just woke up.
One role I think we haven't talked about yet, because I don't think anyone has seen it here outside of EZA Mafia, is the Taxi Driver, which lets you swap two people and make them perform each other's actions. But the catch is their targets don't get switched, so that means whoever was doing FOXDIE was still targeting Kalor, it's just that LP was the one who did it for them. I could see this as a Patriot Plot if they do have that role, swapping their FOXDIEer with LP to make LP be seen by Kalor when he gets FOXDIE.
I probably wouldn't bring this up if Natiko hadn't reviewed EZA Mafia and been fully aware of that role's existence lol, but it is a thing on the back of my mind at least, it's a pretty Bastard role.
That's not a good idea unless Kalor is partnered with the nk scum team and they're in a good position. That still leaves the question of how Kalor knew there wasn't another foxdie infection today to CC him though.
Conversely, he could be on the Foxdie team and lied to 1:1 LP which is...baffling.
I can't see the self watcher and the watcher being on the same team.
Unless I'm buying into the selfwatcher claim too much, and it's totally fake and he's not even that.
But he did catch Vere, and Vere never said "Nope, impossible, wasn't there"
Unless he/someone else tracked Vere to him, so he knew he could call him out on it?
