We know Switch weekly average in September was +60K, if we assume Switch sales were increasing every week since late September because of more supply, a gradual increase to something like ~65K week 1, ~70K week 2, ~75K week 3, then ~180K week 4 (~100K Mario bundles) would be a perfectly fine and great result, while still being ~400K. You can cut week 4 down to 150K and it would still be a great month.
Nintendo will need to keep sales high after Mario since we are in November now, so whatever October sold isn't really indicative of what Nintendo has planned for the holidays.