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Lord Brady

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
8,392
Good on Nintendo for making a product people want. Hopefully they can make enough to fulfill the demand for the thing and destroy the scalpers' market.
There's been no scalpers market in the US for about two months. Nintendo has done a good job lately of keeping them in stores. Hopefully they can keep that up during the holidays. Not just consoles, but also accessories. My local 6 Targets were sold out of Pro controllers and Joy-Cons this week. Same goes for games. No store should ever run out of the big games (Splatoon, Kart, Odyssey, Zelda).
 

Frankfurter

Member
Oct 27, 2017
848
What's the best estimate for hardware sales up until September? I know the 2m+ figure, but I think we actually had more precise figures because most of the results are ~known (either officially or inofficially +-10k).
 

LordOcidax

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,486
Buying a Switch this holiday...

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FettS1

Member
Oct 27, 2017
40
I got the Switch at launch, and my son often brings it to his karate class - the kids play together in the lobby while waiting for their class to start. Mario Kart & 1-2 Switch mostly (mock it - but it's popular w the kids). Since then, I know at least 3 of those kids have bought their own. The thing sells itself.
 

Barrel_Roll

Self-requested ban
Banned
Oct 30, 2017
963
Good on Nintendo for making a product people want. Hopefully they can make enough to fulfill the demand for the thing and destroy the scalpers' market.

Stock has greatly improved in my area (NY Capital Region). You can pick and choose which of the four available SKUs you want, although this may change once the holiday shopping season ramps up. The SNES Minu in the other hand...
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Our August estimates are 2009k LTD as of August.
310 - 320k for September.
But i heavily disagree that 400k is a low number. It would still be the best October this generation.
Okay, but this october has the release of a game that has turned out to sell gangbusters, with a bundle to boot. I truly feel that numbers should be higher, 500k-600k at least. Consider, for example, that amazon has sold out of its entire Switch stock. That didn't happen in September, so either the stock was comparable (doubtful imo because of the anticipation of SMO release) or sales were in fact much higher. More geneeally for amazon, the monthly charts put the Switch SKUs much higher than in September, and add a third sku with the SMO bundle.
 

Cid

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
395
Without any perspective of historic sales data of other consoles, I can't compare it to know how good and fast this is.

But all you guys are excited so It's probably good.
 

Raijinto

self-requested ban
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
10,091
It's honestly not doing that great, I've got confirmation from shops in Sweden, New Zealand and Madagascar that there's hundreds of systems lying in the shelves waiting to be sold.

Don't forget that FIFA bombed! And something about ARMS! Bad news, starved, it'll die down soon enough, The Legend of Belda with Plink etc.

But seriously hopefully these sort of people see how ridiculous this stuff is and it dies down soon enough.
 

Renna Hazel

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,648
Okay, but this october has the release of a game that has turned out to sell gangbusters, with a bundle to boot. I truly feel that numbers should be higher 500k-600k at least. Consider, for example that amazon has sold out of its entire Switch stock. That didn't happen in September, so either the stock was comparable (doubtful imo because of the anticipation of SMO release) or sales were in fact much higher. More geneeally for amazon, the monthly charts put the Switch SKUs much higher than in September, and add a third sku with the SMO bundle.
That would be a really high number for any console in October. Wii didn't put up those kind of numbers in it's entire first year save for December.

With that said, NoA has always given out the low end estimate with sales numbers. NPD usually comes in higher than the numbers NoA announces.
 

Musubi

Unshakable Resolve - Prophet of Truth
Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,666
It's a fantastic console with some amazing games already.
 

z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,418
This would lead me to believe that Amercas sit around 4m after last quarter had Americas at 3.11m. Adding 500k-600k in just US, you would assume that there is at least another 200-300k from the other regions in Americas. It also leads me to believe that October saw a significant increase in consoles sold over the prior 3 individual months, which averaged 1m a month, this is 800-900k in americas alone and Japan's last week was 125k+ so we could be looking at 1.5m+ for October, but lets not start the successor to VGChartz.
 

rokero

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 28, 2017
298
It would have been amazing to see this console sell without stock issues can't wait to see how Nintendo does this holiday if they can get enough units out there
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
This would lead me to believe that Amercas sit around 4m after last quarter had Americas at 3.11m. Adding 500k-600k in just US, you would assume that there is at least another 200-300k from the other regions in Americas. It also leads me to believe that October saw a significant increase in consoles sold over the prior 3 individual months, which averaged 1m a month, this is 800-900k in americas alone and Japan's last week was 125k+ so we could be looking at 1.5m+ for October, but lets not start the successor to VGChartz.
I think that's a bit high for Americas. From recent numbers for Canada we know they are 10% or lesa of us for Switch units, and shipments to americas in the first quarter indicated total share of us to be over 80%.
 

pestul

Member
Oct 25, 2017
693
The Switch really is going to beat the Wii U LTD in 1yr isn't it? That's crazy.
 

KodaRuss

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,867
Texas
I was somewhat unimpressed by the reveal but I was way off. Love my Switch now, the seamless transition between tv gaming to mobile gaming is awesome and works really well for my life currently.
 

Soony Xbone Uhh

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,156
Zedark no console other than the Wii ever sold above 500k in October.
The Xbox 360 never managed to sell above 400k.

If we go by the Japanese Media Create numbers, the stock for Switch wasn't that much higher in October compared to September.

I would like to be wrong on this, i just don't see it.
 

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,917
Even 2.7 million seems low to me. Including August you would think Switch would be at the edge of 2 million, and September was probably something like 300k at least, so that would mean October was only 400k, which doesn't strike me as very good for the launch month of SMO. But maybe they did underestimated and the actual number is more like 2.8-2.9 million.
We know Switch weekly average in September was +60K, if we assume Switch sales were increasing every week since late September because of more supply, a gradual increase to something like ~65K week 1, ~70K week 2, ~75K week 3, then ~180K week 4 (~100K Mario bundles) would be a perfectly fine and great result, while still being ~400K. You can cut week 4 down to 150K and it would still be a great month.

Nintendo will need to keep sales high after Mario since we are in November now, so whatever October sold isn't really indicative of what Nintendo has planned for the holidays.
 

mindsale

Member
Oct 29, 2017
5,911
How're the NAND memory constraints? Still bottlenecking production?

That's really the only barrier they've got to overcome. Actually be able to make the things. And a few new SKU's and higher-powered machines wouldn't hurt.
 

pestul

Member
Oct 25, 2017
693
How're the NAND memory constraints? Still bottlenecking production?

That's really the only barrier they've got to overcome. Actually be able to make the things. And a few new SKU's and higher-powered machines wouldn't hurt.
I don't know about higher powered just yet, but a reduction in production cost as well as longer battery life would be great. Well, I wouldn't mind to see more power if it just meant that the same games could be played at say 1080p and not effect existing owners. Yeah, that would be okay.
 
Oct 26, 2017
7,981
Could the 'over 2' and 'over 2.6' be referring to the same period?

I ask because the September results had The Americas at 3.11 million LTD and USA being 85% of that doesn't sound too off.

ed: I appreciate there's a bit of a difference between shipped and install base though so it might be down to that.


Nvm, misread
 
Last edited:
Oct 27, 2017
1,297
Very good numbers. Nintendo have definitely provided an appealing product and with more varied content going through 2018 the sales threshold should significantly rise. It will be very interesting to see how many titles that were previously positioned as handheld only return over the next year, in announcements or otherwise (Ace Attorney, for example). Pokémon and Animal Crossing will be hugely important pillars to have a higher audience breakthrough.
 

mindsale

Member
Oct 29, 2017
5,911
I don't know about higher powered just yet, but a reduction in production cost as well as longer battery life would be great. Well, I wouldn't mind to see more power if it just meant that the same games could be played at say 1080p and not effect existing owners. Yeah, that would be okay.

Not hitting 1080p by 2017 bothers me. Especially with the more realistic graphical styles and texturing in Odyssey, I'd really like a little more horsepower. I can't wait to upgrade to a Switch Pro or whatever they'll call it. I like these iterative hardware generations.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Could the 'over 2' and 'over 2.6' be referring to the same period?

I ask because the September results had The Americas at 3.11 million LTD and USA being 85% of that doesn't sound too off.

ed: I appreciate there's a bit of a difference between shipped and install base though so it might be down to that.
The 3.11 million also includes stock that has been shipped but is not available in stores yet. If they were at over 2.6 million by the end of September, they would have said more than "over 2 million" imo.
 

v_iHuGi

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
5,155
For what I know October is usually lower than September because less weeks tracked.
 

Widdowmaker

Member
Oct 31, 2017
296
Great Britain
It's doing far better than I ever thought it would. It's still early days, but if this momentum keeps up it will be very good news for the Big N. They need success after the failure of the Wii U.
 

DrROBschiz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,508
Awesome!

Its fitting results for the best hardware Nintendo has made in a very long time.

Very happy about it
 

Raijinto

self-requested ban
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
10,091
Zelda still being at #3 seems pretty crazy. It's going to continue being a big item for the next couple of months.

I think it's entirely plausible to substitute "months" for "years" in your comment TBH. Outside of the obvious GTA V (and even that has a huge online component) I don't think I've seen a single player game with such staying power since maybe Skyrim. I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if in the March 2019 (2 years after the Switch and Zelda releases) NPD Zelda BoTW and Mario Odyssey were in the top 20 or even at least 1 of them in the top 10. Late adopters will surely go back and pick 'em up.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
We know Switch weekly average in September was +60K, if we assume Switch sales were increasing every week since late September because of more supply, a gradual increase to something like ~65K week 1, ~70K week 2, ~75K week 3, then ~180K week 4 (~100K Mario bundles) would be a perfectly fine and great result, while still being ~400K. You can cut week 4 down to 150K and it would still be a great month.

Nintendo will need to keep sales high after Mario since we are in November now, so whatever October sold isn't really indicative of what Nintendo has planned for the holidays.
Yeah, I forgot that September tracks one more week than October, so the comparison is slightly off. In that case, 400k does sound more reasonable (although I still don't want to rule out 500k).
 
Oct 26, 2017
7,981
The 3.11 million also includes stock that has been shipped but is not available in stores yet. If they were at over 2.6 million by the end of September, they would have said more than "over 2 million" imo.

Yeah, I missed the specifics in Zhuge's quote actually, it actually says sold through in October. sorry about that.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
So when should we expect the "Switch is a fad." And "Switch is an anomaly for Nintendo" posts to start rolling in?
Only once pokémon launches on it ;)

It's crazy that M+R and Pokken are on there in the top 20. Even when considering we can't take amazon as the de facto state of the whole market, it is a promising sign for those games for sure!