Fliesen

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,323
That would be good. Italy did it more than a week too late. This must be done much earlier to flatten the infection and specially the hospitalisations curve.



This makes no sense, Vienna isn't even the worst affected region.
Having just watched the chancellor's interview on ZiB, he kinda all but confirms the rumors, seeing how he's constantly dodging the question, reiterating that GROCERY STORES are going to remain open of course (while ignoring all other retail sectors)
Similarly reiterating how being faster to respond than Italy is a clear goal.
We're going on lockdown, folks.
This is surreal ...
 

Geido

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,142
This is totally in line with the way it was in China months ago.

Any sources on that?

This is far too early to estimate accurately. Daily running tallies only really help to highlight hotspots. First of all comparing number cured to number of deaths alone is whack. This is ignoring the majority that have tested positive and are undergoing treatment and the great unknown - the number who have it and are entirely asymptomatic. Both of the latter will decrease the overall mortality rate significantly. We will only arrive at a better understanding of these numbers when the pandemic is reaching the end of the flattened curve in every region.

I totally agree on the fact that the death rate can't be estimated accurately. But right now the death rate is being presented as number of infected versus number of deaths. Which is also inaccurate as the number of currently being treated are just counted among the survivors. The great unknown is definitely there, I completely agree. But we should act on numbers currently known right?

Let me be frank, a lot of this is coming from a lot of people in my environment who are just passing this off as a flu. And this seems to be a lot worse.

Keep in mind the total of infected people is the number of people who were tested, it's a certainty that way more people have it.

Whereas the death toll is prety straight forward.

Simply comparing both isn't enough to get a death rate.

As above, I agree. But it still seems like the media is reporting a very inaccurate number.
 

Westbahnhof

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
10,163
Austria
Having just watched the chancellor's interview on ZiB, he kinda all but confirms the rumors, seeing how he's constantly dodging the question, reiterating that GROCERY STORES are going to remain open of course (while ignoring all other retail sectors)
Similarly reiterating how being faster to respond than Italy is a clear goal.
We're going on lockdown, folks.
This is surreal ...
I really wonder how that'll work in regards to payment for retail workers.
 

Marossi

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
3,997
Brazil went from 0 to 100 real quick today. Universities closing left and right (including mine), Lollapalooza being postponed, CONMEBOL postponed, nobody can stop talking about COVID-19
 

Airegin

Member
Dec 10, 2017
3,915
Had a mild dry cough all day and my temp is 38C° (100.4 F). I should probably call in sick tomorrow?
 

Primal Sage

Virtually Real
Member
Nov 27, 2017
10,122
Infections seem to have flattened out in China and South Korea. Taiwan also seems to be handling things well. And I would imagine cases in Italy to start drastically falling in the coming weeks given the extreme measures they just put in place.

If other countries follow a similar pattern, I just don't see how we get to some of the big figures like 70% of the world population being infected. Is the assumption here that cases in those countries will inevitably spike back up eventually?

The vast majority of people who are infected don't know it and therefore the government doesn't know it. Some will have symptoms so mild that they think it's just a cold. Others will have no symptoms. But they will still be contagious.

Most countries only test you if you've been in contact with someone infected/possibly infected or if you have severe symptoms. So you get a lot of people who are told to stay home who might be infected but no one knows.

Considering how contagious it is and how fast it can spread the 70% figure seems very realistic. Even if your immune system can beat back the virus you can still be a carrier for some time. That's partly the reason why closing schools is smart. Apart from being the "perfect" breeding ground for the virus due to lots of people in close proximity every day the virus is mich milder for kids. Most of them won't show any symptoms but they have it and they come home to their family every day and then the grownups get sick.

Keep your kids away from their grandparents right now.
 
May 26, 2018
24,350
He won't get impeached because the GOP, but this is criminal



QuickTartCornsnake-size_restricted.gif
 

GYODX

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,334
I'd like to believe you are right, but I also know that a large portion of the US knew what was coming and they still are doing a horrible job of containing it.

the main reason China is slowing is because they aren't remotely back to living a normal life.

We are never going to get all of america being careful with hygiene and avoiding social contact.
Containment is an impossibility at this point. The goal now is to flatten the infections curve. The virus has likely already spread far and wide in the US, and I expect that to become apparent in the coming weeks. That said, I expect us to follow a similar trend as Italy: explosive growth and widespread panic for the next couple of weeks (maybe months), followed by a flattening as more and more people start to take it seriously and large gatherings continue to be canceled. I just hope that the peak isn't too bad that it'll overwhelm our health care system.
 

DrewFu

Attempted to circumvent ban with an alt-account
Banned
Apr 19, 2018
10,360
Man, it's weird flipping through the sports channels, and none of these games are actually on.
 

Deleted member 8579

Oct 26, 2017
33,843
So what's the reason behind the UK stance that differs so much than elsewhere, are they both valid approaches or is one a mistake?
 

Armadilo

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,877
I'm starting to possibly come down with a fever and a big headache, Probably nothing and just me thinking and stressing too much

(Downtown LA, don't go out much, yesterday took the metro and the gym and went back home)
 

Kyuuji

The Favonius Fox
Member
Nov 8, 2017
32,989
So what's the reason behind the UK stance that differs so much than elsewhere, are they both valid approaches or is one a mistake?
Regarding schools I think the position is that they (children) are at lowest risk and sending them home will place extended family at risk (going to visit/stay at grandparents) and strain staffing at the NHS as nurses/doctors/staff try to cover children being at home.
 

DarkChronic

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,111
So is there any research as to why some people experience such mild symptoms and some such severe symptoms? I understand those that are older and those with prior health conditions are more at risk, but why are we seeing some 30-50 healthy people have mild to severe symptoms? How can it vary so much? Some with a mild fever and minor cough, others that can't breathe without hospital equipment.

Is it because the strains are different? Peoples body fighting the infection differently?
 

BDS

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,845
Has anyone been to an airport or on a plane recently (last ~24 hours or so)? I'm curious what's going on. I'm still planning to fly on the 24th.
 

DJChuy

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
5,332
Shit has hit the fan in my city. Everything is selling out now: tp, waters, napkins, canned food, etc
 

Addi

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,399
I wonder how everything would have turned out before the information age we are in, like if this happened 20 years ago. We're following this in real-time with instant news from all over the world. While there is a ton of noise, it makes people react relatively fast. I don't get the toilet paper rush though.
 

Geido

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,142
I mean, none of the numbers are inaccurate? You just have be aware of the nuances of what you're seeing, watching countries that are further along in the development like South Korea (who also have tested the best) etc. to get a better idea of the situation. Actual CFR you can't really tell until after enough cases has gone through the entire course of illness and you have a better idea of total infected.

Saying the reporting on it is bad because they're using current numbers seems strange to me.

Yeah, I mean I am. Aware of the nuances, that was the reason for my post. But data can be presented in a way that makes it seem worse or better than it actually is right? And what I'm seeing now seems off, showing death as a percentage of the number of infected as it counts the currently infected as will not die. I hope nobody disagrees on me there. And the way people are reading the media is that it's a fact that the virus kills 0,1 or 2%, while we're actually not sure. That's creating a lot of indifference. (at least in my environment).

Now I see that there's also an issue comparing the number of deaths to confirmed cured. Which is actually what I was looking for.

But bottom line, we can't actually say anything for sure based on the data we have about the mortality rate.
 

Stuggernaut

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,060
Seattle, WA, USA
It makes me so sad to see that "Deaths" number on WoldOMeter tick up. Such a horrible way to go I would imagine.

Last summer when I had 2 strains of flu and pneumonia at the same time, I felt like death... feel so bad for anyone suffering.
 

Deleted member 1476

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,449
Brazil went from 0 to 100 real quick today. Universities closing left and right (including mine), Lollapalooza being postponed, CONMEBOL postponed, nobody can stop talking about COVID-19

Yeah, people are starting to realize that this is actually serious, and we're not even in the winter. That's gonna be a massive problem in the future.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,681
Shit I am out of hand soap and every single one I click on Amazon is either sold out or on backorder for a few weeks. Anyone find any on Amazon that are still immediately in stock (or on another site)?
 

RedMercury

Blue Venus
Member
Dec 24, 2017
17,851
Welp, they cancelled school for 2 weeks, dunno wtf I'm going to do now, I can't afford that at all
Shit I am out of hand soap and every single one I click on Amazon is either sold out or on backorder for a few weeks. Anyone find any on Amazon that are still immediately in stock (or on another site)?
Search for dishwashing liquid maybe? They make antibacterial palmolive or whatever
 

Leeness

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,136
Haven't looked at the article yet, but my friend says BC is banning events over 250 people, and "recommending" no non-essential travel outside of Canada (US included) and if you do travel, to quarantine for 2 weeks after you come back.

Will find article in a bit, unless another CanadaERA finds before me.

Also, only 7 cases again in BC today. #flattenthecurve
 

Chikor

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
14,239
Shit I am out of hand soap and every single one I click on Amazon is either sold out or on backorder for a few weeks. Anyone find any on Amazon that are still immediately in stock (or on another site)?
Do you have any supermarkets in your area that do delivery?
I'm in Seattle and hand soap isn't sold out here, and I got to assume the demand is above average.
 

Deleted member 5334

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,815
Looking at the tweets from Gannon University and Mercyhurst University posting today compared to yesterday, they REALLY are NOT willing to shut down and will go kicking and fighting. Heck, one of them was even saying "if you have concerns if you're in the risk bracket, contact our health department to help reduce ease and to work out to reduce exposure" and stuff like that.

Fucking. Insane.
 

Deleted member 17092

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
20,360
Shit I am out of hand soap and every single one I click on Amazon is either sold out or on backorder for a few weeks. Anyone find any on Amazon that are still immediately in stock (or on another site)?

I don't know but try Walmart?

Or yeah just go to a local grocery store and stay 6ft away from people. Most of them even have self checkouts if you're that concerned about being too
close to a cashier.

Imo you don't have to be a total freak about going out in public, just try to keep your distance. Especially if someone is coughing.
 

Fractology

Member
Oct 28, 2017
439
So is there any research as to why some people experience such mild symptoms and some such severe symptoms? I understand those that are older and those with prior health conditions are more at risk, but why are we seeing some 30-50 healthy people have mild to severe symptoms? How can it vary so much? Some with a mild fever and minor cough, others that can't breathe without hospital equipment.

Is it because the strains are different? Peoples body fighting the infection differently?

My guess has something to do with the "dosage" of the hit of virus one gets. If you come in contact with only a little bit of it, you probably don't even notice or have mild symptoms, get blasted with a bunch of it, and get more severe symptoms. That's probably why the doctor in China who was 34 still died...he was getting hit with it day by day all day.
 

CoolOff

Avenger
Oct 26, 2017
3,464
Yeah, I mean I am. Aware of the nuances, that was the reason for my post. But data can be presented in a way that makes it seem worse or better than it actually is right? And what I'm seeing now seems off, showing death as a percentage of the number of infected as it counts the currently infected as will not die. I hope nobody disagrees on me there. And the way people are reading the media is that it's a fact that the virus kills 0,1 or 2%, while we're actually not sure. That's creating a lot of indifference. (at least in my environment).

Now I see that there's also an issue comparing the number of deaths to confirmed cured. Which is actually what I was looking for.

But bottom line, we can't actually say anything for sure based on the data we have about the mortality rate.

It's an evolving picture that is mainly driven by increasing deaths, increasing cases confirmed by healthcare services, and post-epidemic evaluations of total population infection. Involving recovered vs dead as a metric doesn't seem that useful, but if you do still want to do that don't go for the Italian one since they are in a stage where it is super misguiding because of incubation periods and time to recover, instead keep a continuous eye on Koreas number:

www.worldometers.info

South Korea COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

South Korea Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

They are currently at 17% and that's a number I expect to keep dropping as they discharge more people as well as test further. They have a very structured approach to it and are as far into the course of epidemic as you can be outside China.
 

OG YOLOwen

Banned
Mar 24, 2019
814
So much blood on his hands purely for selfish reasons. Instead of being the President he was a Politician.
And he has the stones to go in front of a camera and tell average Americans to not "politicize" the virus. A curse on the Trump bloodline till the end of the time.

Anyways, how are most transmissions done? Via respiratory droplets from a cough/sneeze?
 

Eoin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,117
is this the worst outbreak since the spanish flu and the plague?
Not yet, and in the end it'll probably depend on what metric you use to compare things.

If we use the most serious of metrics (number of deaths) then there is a vast gap between where we are now with Covid-19 (approaching 5,000 worldwide) and the diseases you mentioned (I assume you're specifically referring to the "Black Death" plague since that's the most widely known). Both your examples have tens and maybe hundreds of millions of deaths. They're even worse per capita - the Black Death is generally estimated to have killed around a third of Europe, which would have meant that every survivor was likely to have lost several family members, many friends and dozens of acquaintances. From their perspective it was a universe-altering event. Even the worst projections of Covid-19 don't suggest anything like that is plausible.

Other outbreaks since the Spanish Flu are also currently worse than Covid-19, based on deaths. Several flu outbreaks killed over a million people. Several more localised diseases also resulted in more deaths, such as Ebola in 2014 and Cholera in Haiti after 2010, following the earthquake there. Both of these will, however, be overtaken by Covid-19.

Additionally, Covid-19 is one of two diseases currently classified as a pandemic. The other is HIV/AIDs - it is estimated to have killed over 30m people - primarily in sub-Saharan Africa where it resulted in severely reduced life expectancy levels in the 1990s.

So right now, Covid-19 is not the worst outbreak of disease since the Spanish Flu. It is likely to be among the worst, however, when it can eventually be assessed in retrospect.