NPD January 2018: Monster Hunter World #1 SW, Nintendo switch #1 HW
- Thread starter ZhugeEX
- Start date
I guess I don't really look at it from that perspective. I think Switch will do fine going forward (I'm not as bullish on it doing very well 3-4 years from now though). It is more about the momentum PS5/XB2 will have coming out of the gate.
All we know is we know nothing.
We just travel on this rock through the void. Souls on a cosmic life raft with the ultimate destination oblivion.
We just travel on this rock through the void. Souls on a cosmic life raft with the ultimate destination oblivion.
Yep. We can all make theories and apply whatever context we want later.
I have right to call MHW's ( probably ) 15% sales on Xbone WW not a success. Opinions can be wrong, right? Well, mine is wrong, at least for US territory. Game did well there on Xbone. Good.
I think his point is that it's hard to draw long term conclusions/comparisons based on those sales numbers when the consoles have different launch seasons. Which I would agree with.
It's the journey that counts, the soul warming path to the unknown.
I don't think that's what he was saying to be honest. If it was, then I would agree also.
Uh.. And it is? as mentioned by ZhugeEX, switch is ahead in that chart because of early holiday and different launch period, which makes it hard to compare. We know Switch was ahead in shipments for first 10 months (PS4 missing Sep/Oct and half of November, also switch having no launch competitor like XB1) but PS4 was at 19.9m shipped in first 13 months and switch will be around 18m. This is not particularly fair because Switch will be missing 1 holiday month, but launch aligned its still behind.
Anyway lets postpone this discussion for 5 more years..
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I would just expect the more expensive console to be the revenue leader since it seems the X is selling better than the Pro.
Or are my expectations off?
You're talking about 13.5 months now, but were talking about year one before. Switch's first 12 months will be higher than PS4's first 12 months.
Edit - To give a clearer picture based on actual data we have right now, PS4 shipped 13.5 million units as of September 30th, 2014. Switch shipped 14.86 million units as of December 31st, 2017. This is roughly the same time frame from launch for both consoles, though Switch has fewer days on the market in this comparison (by around two weeks).
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Blimey, I am honestly blown away by these results!
Two Japanese (developed) games sitting in the first and second place respectively, the PlayStation 4 accumulated the most revenue despite the high(er) price of both the Switch and Xbox One X, and the Xbox One has had its best January yet, which I am genuinely surprised about after six long weeks of being $189 in (half of) November and December.
Here's hoping this 'healthy trio' trend continues into February.
Two Japanese (developed) games sitting in the first and second place respectively, the PlayStation 4 accumulated the most revenue despite the high(er) price of both the Switch and Xbox One X, and the Xbox One has had its best January yet, which I am genuinely surprised about after six long weeks of being $189 in (half of) November and December.
Here's hoping this 'healthy trio' trend continues into February.
These comparison make no sense. We need to compare fiscal/solar years to have a slighty better picture. At the end of March we'll be able to compare 1 April 2017 31 March 2018 Switch and 1 April 2014 31 March 2015 PS4. It's not a perfect comparison because Switch faced supply issues in some months , but it's better than nothing.
Anyway at the end of the day Switch is doing great and Nintendo had a very aggressive approach in 2017. It's going to be intersting ( as usual ) to see his performance in the next few years.
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A part of it may depend on the price point. A 499 price point for both makes it hard to see momentum like that but at 399 IDK I'm with you I expect both to outsell the Switch in their launch year considering where the switch will be in terms of life span VS new consoles releasing. Considering the Switch isn't a failure like the WiiU I'm not surprised it outsold the XB1 or PS4. Both are price drop dependent now vs earlier in the gen.
Well in its 3rd to 4th year, the Switch should be entering its peak year or slightly past its peak year so I wouldn't expect the PS5/XB2 to routinely outsell the Switch, aside from their launch during the Holidays, unless the Switch's sales fall off a cliff by then, just like how I wouldn't expect the Switch to outsell the PS4 this year
Okay, I may have been wrong about 12 months data, but how does that effect the numbers after year one? Switch still seems to be behind by estimate.
And I'm done with this argument, Only reason I asked about numbers was to get the confirmation so there is no point arguing farther.
Facts. They could've kept the systems and just upped the presentation.
Well that makes perfect sense considering PS4's second year begins in the middle of November and Switch's second year begins at the start of March.
Switch will make up for this eight months into its second year when it finds itself at the start of the holiday shopping season and PS4 is in the middle of July, 2015.
Ultimately, both systems are kicking ass.
They can release in 2 years but if they don't have full backward compatibility with this generation they're going to be a hard sell for many people. There are no more architecture excuses anymore and there's no reason, other than the greed, to not have it as a base feature.
Exactly. This is great for gamers. Good results for all three major players.
2020 still makes the most sense for PS5 and whatever might be next for Xbox. But then again, 2012 made the most sense for PS4 and Xone and that didn't happen. Shrug.
Umm. We have to compare sales to something to determine if impressive or not right?
Don't want to compare to Wiiu? How about the Wii?
Would it be impressive if Botw and Smo outsell TP and smg?
Your argument that of course well rated games will sell amazingly is silly. Not all highly rated games sell as much.
Also, just because something tends to sell amazingly doesn't make it less amazing the next time it happens especially when it does better than last time.
Since we're arguing semantics apparently. Let's put some numbers and make predictions instead of Monday morning quarter backing.
Will Botw outsell TP? Oot?
So good to see MHW doing good on Xbox. Xbox definitely needs more Japanese games and topping the charts is the best way to show other developers that there is demand for them. Can't help but feel that X is a major factor in XOne not doing another bad January after last year. If they decrease the price on the system by little this year, I could see it keeping its current momentum.
These two lines:
are one of the strangest leaps in logic I've ever seen. Because the Wii U sold so poorly, meaning nobody wanted it, that means that a lot of people wanted a Nintendo console? How can you possibly come to that conclusion?
Well, it's already outsold OoT, unless you combine both the original release and OoT 3D from 13 years later. It will outsell TP this year and I'd wager it will eventually go on to outsell both versions of OoT combined (13.2 million).
Unless Nintendo does a hardware revision like the New 3DS, I think Switch's novelty factor will start to fade away when all the big, AAA, high budget multiplatform games that skip it starting stacking up. I don't see how it could possibly outsell next gen consoles when they're supposed to be an even smoother transition from current gen consoles, compared to last gen. I wouldn't be surprised if, at least for Microsoft's console, they have BC since launch and don't require you to buy new peripherals. I've no doubt PS5 will have full PS4 BC also.
Third party isn't driving Switch sales now and the lack of it is unlikely to hurt Switch later. Switch's long term success is based almost solely on Nintendo's support for the platform. Third party support is really just a supplemental bonus.
Very true. Third party is important but it isn't what sells the switch right now.
the disgust for the wiiu was stronger than the love for mariokart. while people were actively scared away from owning a nintendo system, because it was an ugly disgrace, the edsel of gaming devices, the thirst to play quality nintendo titles grew dramatically, errupting in a massive sales outburst of a fresh and well-made console that you actually won't be ashamed of to own.
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Good post.
People who'd love to see Xbox fail are in for a rough time ahead.
The game was on sale on several platforms for a good price. January is a slow month outside new releases. Even in a revenue based chart, it sold enough to get to that position because hype for Dragon Ball stuff is in a very good place now between the show and dbfz launch.
It's really not that hard to explain
Something about the phrase "fresh and well-made" coupled with your avatar really makes me want some lemonade.
Maybe the Edsel reference subconsciously helped me get there too.
Late 2020 and I would agree.
Right now though, I'm not even sure what you could offer that would even wow an audience and justify the upgrade.
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PS5 and NeXbox releasing 3-4 years from now would be perfect for Nintendo imo. That would be around the time the Switch needs a "Pro" version or a sequel.
Which is basically the same thing that is brought up time and again with new hardware. It's the new shiny, people like new shiny.
OP
OP
One thing that revenue charts don't show very well is the impact of digital sales. What we're seeing here, and I think Mat should be able to back this up, is the digital version seeing strong performance as a result of the $10 price that was active at the beginning of January.
Plenty of games do really strongly during digital sales. Catalog sales are influenced by digital pricing a lot.
I'm just happy all the systems are doing well. I actually legitimately expected hardware to be slower in January (though I expected good software sales)- is there any indication why hardware was up so much last month? I suppose we can explain Xbox's YoY growth via the One X, but what about Nintendo and PlayStation?
Yea, I guess that's where I'm at. I know the CPU can be beefed up in hopes of more 60 fps titles. But that seems really hard to market. Especially when you see how good the One X 4k titles look and even without native 4k, first party PS4 Pro stuff is amazing. Wonder if they could just keep updating the Pro and One X instead.