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Phil Spencer: The industry will start to see the impacts of coronavirus in early 2021, as some crucial aspects of video game production have stopped

Theorry

Theorry

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Oct 27, 2017
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But by March 2021, the industry could start to see the broader effects of the coronavirus. Games planned to launch next year and beyond are most likely to face issues with development that could lead to delays or cancellations.

"Through the summer, early fall? I feel pretty good about those games," Microsoft's Xbox leader Phil Spencer told Business Insider. "Games that were targeting a year from now or beyond? There'll be some impact, but they'll be able to react."
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Many of those titles have yet to be revealed, but all blockbuster games take years to make, with hundreds or thousands of people working in offices around the world — something that's become nearly impossible during a global pandemic. Studios outright can't remotely do the motion capture ("mocap") or audio work needed to put the finishing touches on a game.
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"Mocap is just something that's basically stopped. We're not going into mocap studios," Spencer told Business Insider. "If you had all your animation captured and you're doing touch up in more individual art production and in areas like textures and other things, you're in a better position. If you're waiting for a lot of either large audio work — when it's with symphonies and other things — or mocap, you're held up right now and you're making progress in areas that you are."
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Annual sports franchises like "Madden" and "FIFA" are a good place to start. "It's really in those [types of] games that were trying to finally get all their asset base together in terms of art production that they might have the biggest impact," Spencer said.
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markets.businessinsider.com

Xbox lead Phil Spencer says the industry will start to see the impacts of coronavirus in early 2021, as some crucial aspects of video game production have 'basically stopped'

For now, the flow of video game launches will continue — but coronavirus is likely to impact major game launches starting in 2021.
markets.businessinsider.com markets.businessinsider.com
 
christocolus

christocolus

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Oct 27, 2017
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"Mocap is just something that's basically stopped. We're not going into mocap studios," Spencer told Business Insider. "If you had all your animation captured and you're doing touch up in more individual art production and in areas like textures and other things, you're in a better position. If you're waiting for a lot of either large audio work — when it's with symphonies and other things — or mocap, you're held up right now and you're making progress in areas that you are."
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Never even thought about this. damn.. but safety comes first.
 
Ukumio

Ukumio

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Oct 26, 2017
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It's not just gaming, 2021 is going to rough for movies and television as well. Doubt it'll be as bad the Writers Strike in 2007 though unlike that this will be felt in most forms of entertainment.

At least this will give me time to revisit my backlog.
 
Lnds500

Lnds500

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Oct 27, 2017
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I feel like simple transparency like this is why a lot of people like Spencer. Good article all around!
 

Deleted member 5028

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I'm glad he said they stopped going into Mocap studios, I suspect this will impact Hellblade 2 heavily (depending on if they are on track and have captured their animation).

It's fine, we'll have plenty to play - and a remake/remaster of existing current gen games wouldn't really be so bad to tide us over.
 
pswii60

pswii60

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Ukumio said:
It's not just gaming, 2021 is going to rough for movies and television as well. Doubt it'll be as bad the Writers Strike in 2007 though unlike that this will be felt in most forms of entertainment.

At least this will give me time to revisit my backlog.
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Yeah from my point of view it'll give plenty more time to catch up on the gazillion games/TV shows/movies that I never have enough time to watch. But it'll certainly be challenging for the industry. And for next-gen consoles trying to keep momentum going next year.
 
Gay Bowser

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Oct 30, 2017
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I keep on reading people here talk about how covid-19 might impact the release of games like TLOU2, but things will be back to normal next year. Some people are even talking about how 2021 will be "stacked" because it will have delayed 2020 games plus all the 2021 games.

And it's like, no.

This isn't going away any time soon.
 
Tiago Rodrigues

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Ukumio said:
It's not just gaming, 2021 is going to rough for movies and television as well. Doubt it'll be as bad the Writers Strike in 2007 though unlike that this will be felt in most forms of entertainment.

At least this will give me time to revisit my backlog.
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Honestly? We stopped a year. A lot of stuff planned for 2020 will now come out in 2021. Speaking of movies only.
 
Tiago Rodrigues

Tiago Rodrigues

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jaggies said:
I keep on reading people here talk about how covid-19 might impact the release of games like TLOU2, but things will be back to normal next year. Some people are even talking about how 2021 will be "stacked" because it will have delayed 2020 games plus all the 2021 games.

And it's like, no.

This isn't going away any time soon.
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People are having a hard time realizing this is long term. We're going to feel consequences from this for years to come.
 
ghostcrew

ghostcrew

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Absolutely. What I've seen personally in my business is releases planned for anything from March-Fall 2020 haven't been so impacted (production wise). They're all done. The marketing/release is difficult but the actual making of the thing is already complete. These things have long lead times.

Anything planned for early 2021 onwards, that should've been in the production stages now, are completely fucked and everything is getting delayed. I said this in an earlier thread but we were supposed to have a release (a record) out in early January 2021 and now we're looking at (roughly) fall 2021 instead. That's how much it's messed with making the damn thing.
 
Gay Bowser

Gay Bowser

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Tiago Rodrigues said:
Honestly? We stopped a year. A lot of stuff planned for 2020 will now come out in 2021. Speaking of movies only.
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Yeah. As for TV, the fall shows aren't going to be ready for the fall. They'll tickle out as mid-season replacements at best. And the shows that used to premiere in mid-season might well skip the entire 2020-21 season and premiere in the fall of 2021.

We're going to have a lot of British imports, game shows, and stuff like "Celebrity Watch Party."
 
BaldwinAce

BaldwinAce

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Oct 28, 2017
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For those of us who were on the fence about buying a next gen console because of launches usually being somewhat bare when it comes to games... Well that certainly will be putting even more of a dent on those early sells.

But yeah, in these circumstances, it is very understandable. But also very sad to hear.
 
Anddo

Anddo

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Oct 28, 2017
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Expected? The residual effects of Covid-19 will be felt well into 2021. I feel like both PS5 and Series X will have very few new titles to play post launch.

Kolx said:
So launch titles for next gen shouldn't be affected? cool.
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But after that slim pickings; possibly the worst post launch drought in history?
 
Secretofmateria

Secretofmateria

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Take any games your excited about now for next year, and forget about them for a year and a half to two years. You will do yourself a favor
 
jawzpause

jawzpause

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Maybe this will give everyone a chance to catch up on their back logs. Not just games but tv series/movies too
 

Imitatio

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Feb 19, 2018
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I mean, what is there to say other than what has been said by Mr. Spencer? The man certainly knows better than all of Era what it's going to be like, he has the crucial information we sometimes lack.
Personally I'd like to see publishers stretch out their releases more to compensate for 2021 stuff being delayed or on hold. Talking Nintendo here e.g., instead of having 1-2 (big) releases every month (that were in the finishing stages for 2020), like they did last year, I'd like to see them making that 1 release every two months or so.
That way they can stretch out their schedule over 1.5 to 2 years and see where things are heading.
Maybe that's a bit of wishful thinking as well, though.
 
BaldwinAce

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Oct 28, 2017
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ghostcrew said:
Launch is 2020. Launch titles should be (largely) fine. It's anything planned for 2021 that is likely to see difficulties in one way or another.
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Yeah that's my fault, I usually put the first year of a console launch as launch titles. The first year usually being rougher than the rest, some call it a drought, while I would have called it lacking in launch titles. Which is wrong I guess.
 
Plum

Plum

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I'm not going to lie to myself and say "this is perfectly fine!" because it isn't. It's really depressing that so much of life has just... stopped for now and won't get back to 'normal' for years. That we can't even take solace in looking forward to cool new entertainment stuff just makes it that much worse.
 
Tiago Rodrigues

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Basically games that coming out in short term (that might have manufacturing issues like TLOU2) and long term (over a year and half that still don't have all mocap, soundtracks done etc) are the ones suffering the most.
Mid-term releases where developers are mostly working from home won't be as affected.
That's what i'm getting from this industry right now.
 
IIFloodyII

IIFloodyII

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Oct 26, 2017
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Was actually curious about how they are dealing with mocap in the current situation, but yeah thinking about it there's literally fuck all they can do to get around that, well besides recklessly endanger their employess, happy to see they aren't.
My other wonder is the impact it's had on support studios that are based all over the world, feel that'd be fairly complicated to set up and keep secure on top of setting up your entire workforce to be WFH.
 
Lee Morris

Lee Morris

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Oct 28, 2017
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BaldwinAce said:
What? Isn't it exactly the opposite of what he's saying seing how it will affect 2021 games?

Edit: I see 2021 games as part of the launch titles, I might be the one in the wrong here for this. First year of the launch of consoles will be rough as hell.
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Might be the case that small indie games can once again plug the gap at the start of a console generation
 
Detective Pidgey

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Ukumio said:
It's not just gaming, 2021 is going to rough for movies and television as well. Doubt it'll be as bad the Writers Strike in 2007 though unlike that this will be felt in most forms of entertainment.

At least this will give me time to revisit my backlog.
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Still though, some movies are still planned for this year. No time to Die is still planned for November, Quiet Place part 2 as well, Mulan actually is coming in June and so on.
 
Prine

Prine

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It's good that this is being expressed now, really gives you a perspective of how massive games have become, these disruptions would be felt beyond gaming like movies and television.

Looks like 22 is when we'll start to see more confidence from the industry.
 
BaldwinAce

BaldwinAce

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Yautja_Warrior said:
Expected but thankfully these new consoles are backwards compatible, so we can go through backlogs if there is a big slow down in new games.
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Yeah that's true. And them being somewhat improved over their last gen counter part, I can see them being seen as a saving grace somehow. But still, It'll never be enough to replace actual new IPs/games. As Lee Morris said, indie games will most likely take the role of plugging the gap, as usual.
 
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