Damn. I'll admit, 2019 is not looking out of the question. Personally, I'd still hedge my bet on 2020, but won't be shocked if it's 2019.
Something else I thought of, although it may not be relevant at all. Back at E3 2012 we saw signs the next gen was upon us with demos of Star Wars 1313 and Watchdogs. We didn't actually get anything like that this year at all.
Most of the developers I spoke to, via phone and email and text, said they had not heard anything about plans for a new PlayStation. Even employees at Sony's first-party studios said they have not yet been briefed on the existence of a PlayStation 5. People across all the disciplines (design, art, engineering, etc.) at major studios working on games scheduled for 2019 and beyond have told me that if there is information about the PS5 at their companies, they haven't heard about it. (Those people said they haven't heard about a new Xbox, either.)
This is how it works.The big issue with 12 TF is that if you start making games at native 4K you've almost completely wiped out the entire boost given to you by the increase in teraflops. So effectively, you could have native 4K, or you could still checkerboard and try and do much higher fidelity visuals.
The advantages of One X are real, but with a real cost. Microsoft had to launch a year later and $100 more expensive. So you expect that to repeat?
Back at E3 2012 we saw signs the next gen was upon us with demos of Star Wars 1313 and Watchdogs. We didn't actually get anything like that this year at all.
And certainly looking at what Sony's original projections were for PS4 sales:
2016:20m,
2017:18m,
2018:16m,
2019:??m,
2019 looked very nice, or even necessary timing.
I always remember this quote from jschreier
A new console coming next year & people haven't heard about it?
My own prediction is that MS will want price parity with PS5. So they will both either be $399 or $499, but one won't be cheaper than the other. I say that because MS will try to be the market leader and that won't be possible at a higher price, even if they're more powerful. I could be totally wrong here but that's what makes the most sense to me.
I always remember this quote from jschreier
A new console coming next year & people haven't heard about it?
By market leader, do you mean US?It's either that or MS going for the more hardcore market with a more powerful machine.
I think it will be the first case, with MS going for the market leader goal, but it will be to high a mountain to climb....Sony has too much of a lead that will translate really well into next gen due to the nature of the digital reality we live on, so maybe MS sees that and goes for the second model
Matt has heard about it so there goes you theory.
Jason is a good journo but he thinks he knows more than he knows sometimes...thinks that people will tell him stuff that maybe they don't want to or can't tell
They're private sources. Why wouldn't they say?
The same thing they showed in 2012. Their games that aren't out yet & 3rd party games they lobbied to reveal.Another point is games. What games will they show next E3 if PS5 comes fall 2020?
It's not a theory. I'm posting his quote. & it's Matt's word vs Jason's so that's a game if he said she said.Matt has heard about it so there goes you theory.
Jason is a good journo but he thinks he knows more than he knows sometimes...thinks that people will tell him stuff that maybe they don't want to or can't tell
My own prediction is that MS will want price parity with PS5. So they will both either be $399 or $499, but one won't be cheaper than the other. I say that because MS will try to be the market leader and that won't be possible at a higher price, even if they're more powerful. I could be totally wrong here but that's what makes the most sense to me.
I always remember this quote from jschreier
A new console coming next year & people haven't heard about it?
Everything I know about PS5, I put in my article. "Planned for fall 2019 but then pushed to 2020" was a rumor I heard buzzing at GDC, but the people I spoke to who would actually know firsthand told me that 2019 was unlikely. Make of that what you will.
If you need 8GB or more for an OS then something has gone horribly wrong with your OS.
They're private sources. Why wouldn't they say?
The same thing they showed in 2012. Their games that aren't out yet & 3rd party games they lobbied to reveal.
It's not a theory. I'm posting his quote. & it's Matt's word vs Jason's so that's a game if he said she said.
Basically. That even lines up with what Matt said. At one point or another 2019 *was* the plan.I would add this one, too.
I voted for spring 2020, but I see late 2019 to late 2020 for any of the two consoles; not later or sooner. Obviously, one of the two releasing next year seems more spicy for the industry.
You're asking the wrong question. They would not say because their employee, Sony, ask them no to say.
Why woukd they say? So Jason can make an article on Kotaku?
No no no. It would be their word if they both KNEW.
Matts knows.
Jason only knows that noone in the know has told him it's coming in 2019.
He doesn't know any internal release date
Jason is basically Socrates
Of which we saw nothing. Not even a pre-rendered simulated "gameplay" demo.We had two games announced as next-gen games this E3: ES6 and Starfield.
I don't know, maybe you do and can point me to some explanations, but I would be very surprised if those things are done in memory. Being in memory vs. disk is a plus point, yes, but I don't think the user-benefit would warrant the cost.It's not literally just for the OS, but also for suspended media apps and the constantly recorded footage of what you're playing. 15 minutes of 4K video, even compressed, would take up a chunk. Plus, they want to have space for potential future additions.
Not to mention that even all that wouldn't necessarily take up 8GB, but RAM is only available in certain amounts.
Basically. That even lines up with what Matt said. At one point or another 2019 *was* the plan.
My point has always been right now, today, it's not anymore. I also don't think anybody but Nintendo is launching a console outside of the fall.
I mean.....I know people aware of some of the stuff going on with PS5
I would hope Jason would as well considering his position and contacts
Well that article is from April
From the sound of it Jason doesnt know shitYou're asking the wrong question. They would not say because their employee, Sony, ask them no to say.
Why woukd they say? So Jason can make an article on Kotaku?
No no no. It would be their word if they both KNEW.
Matts knows.
Jason only knows that noone in the know has told him it's coming in 2019.
He doesn't know any internal release date
Jason is basically Socrates
From the sound of it Jason doesnt know shit
I'd trust what matt says over him in a heartbeat
Edit: Also Benji's words could be interpreted both ways. To me he meant that Jason has contacts, i.e. we should believe him when he says 2020
I don't know, maybe you do and can point me to some explanations, but I would be very surprised if those things are done in memory. Being in memory vs. disk is a plus point, yes, but I don't think the user-benefit would warrant the cost.
Remember, every single dollar saved is tens of millions of dollars extra in Sony's pockets at the end of the generation. They'd elect to save a few dollars by being conservative on OS allocation vs. users having to wait a split second longer to retrieve a recording or re-open an app.
On the standard [PS4], if you're swapping between an application like Netflix and a game, Netflix is still resident in system memory, even when you're playing the game. We use that architecture because it allows for very quick swapping between applications. It's all already in memory.
Over the past month, I've spoken to dozens of game developers, across a variety of disciplines and studios, about the next generation of consoles. Of those, two people said they were directly familiar with plans for Sony's new console. Those two people both told me that the next PlayStation is unlikely to release in 2019, let alone 2018, although they were careful to be clear that these plans are always shifting. "On a multi-year project, a lot can happen to shift schedules both forward and backward," one person said. "At some point, Sony's probably looked at every possible date. It's all about what they think is the best sweet spot in terms of hardware."
Sometimes we read too much into what insiders say and end up tripping over ourselves. This is a good example.
Benji just said that he knows people who know about PS5, and that considering Jason's position and contacts in the industry he (i.e. Benji) would think that Jason would also know people who know about the PS5 and the plans surrounding it.
There was nothing there to indicate anything about the release date. Kindly avoid putting words into insider's mouths, guys.
Yeah since I didnt edit in time and posted when I really shouldn't have I'm here now so might as well respond
This was all I was saying. I'm not going to sit here and claim I know all the plans behind the PS5 initiative, because well I dont. But I am familiar with a few things and while I have contacts in the industry I dont have near the range someone like Jason does. So basically, if in nearly October Jason still doesn't know much of anything around it (which by now I'm willing to bet he does) then its more just his contacts specifically not sharing that information with him I'm assuming. Because word is floating around now. I'm assuming you will start seeing some pretty big rumors not a short time from now.
I mean, there is already a non small amount of next gen titles well into development
I don't think 32 GB of RAM is feasible within the cost budget they're likely working in.
If you look at consumer cost to build an equivalent system and factor in margin at the end here is what you get:
Very approximate retail costs:
CPU - Zen 2 - 8 core/16 thread (AMD 2700 equivalent) - $220 USD
GPU - Mid range equivalent to next gen AMD chip, so pretend successor i Current price of 580 is ~$225 USD
RAM - 32 GB kit $250 USD
Storage - 2TB Hard Drive $60 USD
Motherboard - $60 USD
Power Supply, Ethernet Card, and Misc - $80 USD
As the system will probably share RAM, so cost of RAM on GPU is not included we can probably decrease cost of GPU by $100 USD
Total - $795 USD - this number also excludes the R&D cost of the system, as well as the cost to actually sell the system
Retail margin on PC hardware tends to be around 10%.
AMD gross margin is ~37%, however profit margin on sales is ~6%. With a pure guess based on other business lines that means to sell at cost directly to Sony/MSFT for they would likely only see a further 10% reduction in cost
Based on the above I would guess that Sony/MSFT would pay over $600USD to build the above system, not inclusive of the cost of sale, R&D, or retail margin on the console. True cost would likely be in the $800USD range.
If i was guessing what it will actually look like we will see something like a 6 core / 12 thread Zen, 16GB-20GB of RAM, and a price of $499 USD at launch.
Fuck it
Also from what I understand the 2019 vs 2020 debate has nothing to do with hardware really. If Sony wanted to push for Q4 2019 launch they can. Its primarily a software / business decision as far as I'm aware
Fuck it
Also from what I understand the 2019 vs 2020 debate has nothing to do with hardware really. If Sony wanted to push for Q4 2019 launch they can. Its primarily a software / business decision as far as I'm aware
Oh goddamn man. Whilst I appreciate the info, I hope none of this will get you or people you know in trouble.
Either way, it's neat to know that we might find out more about new toys soon!
I'm under no NDA
And I haven't said anything that isnt known in circles among the business community anyways.
Fuck it
Also from what I understand the 2019 vs 2020 debate has nothing to do with hardware really. If Sony wanted to push for Q4 2019 launch they can. Its primarily a software / business decision as far as I'm aware
Fuck it
Also from what I understand the 2019 vs 2020 debate has nothing to do with hardware really. If Sony wanted to push for Q4 2019 launch they can. Its primarily a software / business decision as far as I'm aware
I'm under no NDA
And I haven't said anything that isnt known in circles among the business community anyways.