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When will the first 'next gen' console arrive?

  • H2 2019

    Votes: 638 14.1%
  • H1 2020

    Votes: 724 16.0%
  • H2 2020

    Votes: 2,813 62.2%
  • H1 2021

    Votes: 141 3.1%
  • H2 2021

    Votes: 208 4.6%

  • Total voters
    4,524
  • Poll closed .

Deleted member 5764

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I find that article very strange considering not one month later, Shinobi confirmed that PS5 games are in development. This happened when everyone got mad that Sony was only showing 4 games at E3.

It's worth noting that Jason's article was published on April 10th, and notes that he spent the past month (March) interviewing people. He also has this quote:

In summary: There is information about the PlayStation 5 floating around at both first- and third-party companies, but it's far more limited than it would be if the console's release was imminent.

Which seems to suggest he had one first party, and one third party contact that knew of Sony's plans for the PS5. (He previously noted that only two people out of dozens knew of the PS5 plans) As his article focused on the hardware, and he wrote a book about how tumultuous game development can be, I don't blame him for not drawing attention to the software side. It doesn't suggest that he hasn't heard of PS5 games being in development.
 

SilverX

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Jan 21, 2018
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I find that article very strange considering not one month later, Shinobi confirmed that PS5 games are in development. This happened when everyone got mad that Sony was only showing 4 games at E3.

Shinobi has blessed us with a lot of leaks, but that isnt one of them. Considering how long games to make, especially Sony´s first party, they were quite obviously in development at that point.
 

Deleted member 1326

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Does anyone really think it's a concern if the PS5 steals some of the thunder from the PS4 with cross generation releases (let's say TLOU2 for example)? I don't see the big deal if we have extensive cross generation games for the launch of the PS5.

It would be a far better starting off point for the new console than the PS4 had, where I would have killed for a PS4 version of GT6 rather than have the silly situation of having a highly anticipated game but not playable on the shiny new console.

I see no issue at all and it just helps strengthen the release slate. It's a nice gradual ramp up until true exclusive games utilising the full power become available.
No issues at all. The contrary is actually the worst, as if there's too much crossgen, people might not feel compelled to upgrade.
Not really concerning at launch though as it should sell out regardless unless they go too crazy with the price. Don't see that happening though.
 

VirtuaRacer

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
542
Does anyone really think it's a concern if the PS5 steals some of the thunder from the PS4 with cross generation releases (let's say TLOU2 for example)? I don't see the big deal if we have extensive cross generation games for the launch of the PS5.

I'm looking forward to playing TLoUII on next-gen hardware. If PS5 releases in time for TLoUII all the better!
 

8byte

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Oct 28, 2017
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The tech that powers PS5 (7nm) is the same tech that will power the PS4 slim slim. Both will be available at the same time. A $199 super slim PS4 and a $399 PS5 will target very different demographics. They can live very well one next to the other. You are assuming otherwise and I don't see why. Think PS4/PS4 Pro coexisting but with an even wider price and tech differentiator.

Business wise, it seems actually sub-optimal to have a product for only one demographic.

They can absolutely live next to one another, but why take the knees out from potentially massive profit margins? 12 months of a $199 PS4 will yield considerable increases to PS+ subscriptions & software sales, particularly of already released 1st party software (which means potential sale of additional DLC with high profit margins).

I think they have considerably more to gain (financially) by allowing the PS4 to breath it's last breath before the PS5 releases (in a matter of speaking, I know it will live and be supported for years to come). In giving a cheap PS4 a 12 month window to sell, they ensure that titles like GoT, Days Gone, and Dreams get maximum focus & marketing attention without having to split their budget / time between those titles and a PS5 launch.

Fiscally, I think waiting until 2020 to release the PS5 is the wisest position to take. I can certainly see a H1 2020 release happening, but it would have to be in the Feb-April window (tax season) to make sense, I think. H2 2020 opens up more options for them, and would put them 6-10 months out from whatever Microsoft put out, at the most.

I'd say keeping a hold of the userbase with a year headstart is probably more important than whatever hardware sales margin they might have in 2020.

This assumes that a new Xbox would afford Microsoft a considerable userbase jump, and ignores the foothold that Sony currently has in essentially all markets. I don't think a 6-12 month headstart would put Sony in any kind of precarious position, nor would it put Microsoft in an insurmountable lead. A PS5 in H2 2020 with a monster launch line-up would sell just as much as it would in H2 2019, and realistically it would probably sell more (better launch line up with wider mass appeal, more units available, more time to assess markets, marketing strategies, etc).

2019 simply feels too risky. I think Sony is completely ready to make the move for a 2019 launch if they absolutely have to if Microsoft pulls the trigger on something very impressive, but I'd err on the side of caution and say 2020 is the considerably safer bet, and the most likely scenario here.
 

Deleted member 1326

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They can absolutely live next to one another, but why take the knees out from potentially massive profit margins? 12 months of a $199 PS4 will yield considerable increases to PS+ subscriptions & software sales, particularly of already released 1st party software (which means potential sale of additional DLC with high profit margins).

I think they have considerably more to gain (financially) by allowing the PS4 to breath it's last breath before the PS5 releases (in a matter of speaking, I know it will live and be supported for years to come). In giving a cheap PS4 a 12 month window to sell, they ensure that titles like GoT, Days Gone, and Dreams get maximum focus & marketing attention without having to split their budget / time between those titles and a PS5 launch.

Fiscally, I think waiting until 2020 to release the PS5 is the wisest position to take. I can certainly see a H1 2020 release happening, but it would have to be in the Feb-April window (tax season) to make sense, I think. H2 2020 opens up more options for them, and would put them 6-10 months out from whatever Microsoft put out, at the most.



This assumes that a new Xbox would afford Microsoft a considerable userbase jump, and ignores the foothold that Sony currently has in essentially all markets. I don't think a 6-12 month headstart would put Sony in any kind of precarious position, nor would it put Microsoft in an insurmountable lead. A PS5 in H2 2020 with a monster launch line-up would sell just as much as it would in H2 2019, and realistically it would probably sell more (better launch line up with wider mass appeal, more units available, more time to assess markets, marketing strategies, etc).

2019 simply feels too risky. I think Sony is completely ready to make the move for a 2019 launch if they absolutely have to if Microsoft pulls the trigger on something very impressive, but I'd err on the side of caution and say 2020 is the considerably safer bet, and the most likely scenario here.
I think having 10M+ consoles in the market while the competition is about to launch is a pretty big deal.

Regarding a H1 launch I don't see it happening as they probably want PS5 versions of Fifa, NBA, COD, etc at launch. Nintendo could pull it off as those games aren't really expected on the platform.
 

Peterc

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
370
I wonder why we need a topic about it while sony said ps5 will be another 3y and xbox one x is still new.

On the other hand, if they want to release it before 3y, they could ducktape 2 xbox onex and sell it for 800dollar real 4k console. Probably most will still buy it. Most of my work still thinks ps4 pro is real 4k and stronger as xbox one x. It just shows how strong sonys marketing works.
 

Deleted member 36493

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I wonder why we need a topic about it while sony said ps5 will be another 3y and xbox one x is still new.

On the other hand, if they want to release it before 3y, they could ducktape 2 xbox onex and sell it for 800dollar real 4k console. Probably most will still buy it. Most of my work still thinks ps4 pro is real 4k and stronger as xbox one x. It just shows how strong sonys marketing works.
Wat
 

SilverX

Member
Jan 21, 2018
13,041
Also, people think that no PSX 2018 signifies a PlayStation Meeting in February 2019 when that is when they are launching Days Gone. I doubt they would compromise the launch by putting it in such a momentous month showing a next generation PlayStation regardless if it turns out to be a cross gen game.
 
Oct 25, 2017
17,916
2019 would be possible if Sony pushed hard / crunched for it

I dont believe that's the year though
Yasssss

It does make sense to let the software cook though. No need to rush these early games when they will be what drives the first bit of adoption for next gen. Make them as impressive as possible through 2019 and launch in 2020.

#Team2020
 

Deleted member 1326

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I wonder why we need a topic about it while sony said ps5 will be another 3y and xbox one x is still new.

On the other hand, if they want to release it before 3y, they could ducktape 2 xbox onex and sell it for 800dollar real 4k console. Probably most will still buy it. Most of my work still thinks ps4 pro is real 4k and stronger as xbox one x. It just shows how strong sonys marketing works.
Sony did not say it would be another 3 years. They said the next 3 years they would be crouching down before they can jump higher.
That was a statement for shareholders regarding profits. A platform launch usually takes a hit on profits. PS5 will be launching anytime IN those 3 years, not after.

Edit: I probably shouldn't have replied to this one though lol.
 
Feb 26, 2018
2,753
Good to know that Sony wants to release ps5 with SW to back it up
I hope they will take some time to make it full on BC with every PlayStation game released (or most of them)
 
Apr 25, 2018
1,652
Rockwall, Texas
I wonder why we need a topic about it while sony said ps5 will be another 3y and xbox one x is still new.

On the other hand, if they want to release it before 3y, they could ducktape 2 xbox onex and sell it for 800dollar real 4k console. Probably most will still buy it. Most of my work still thinks ps4 pro is real 4k and stronger as xbox one x. It just shows how strong sonys marketing works.

Do people actually proof read what they type before hitting the post reply button?
 

BitsandBytes

Member
Dec 16, 2017
4,576
I never said it was 2019.

I said 2019 was possible based on hardware, but that wasnt the deciding factor on launch date for the console

Sorry I wasn't suggesting you did, but like you say you thought it a possibility but now say you don't think it is the year. Which is why I asked if someone had had a word in your ear sort of speak *insert winky smilie*!

I just find it hard to believe that Sony would have the HW ready to go but be so far behind on the games. Like others have said they could do cross-gen patches and that would be enough if it came to that. Sitting on otherwise finished HW doesn't seem like something you ever want to do in business?
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
12,865
Australia
Just realized that FFVIIR could be a 2019 launch title as well.
I think PS5 has a higher chance of coming out in 2019 than FFVIIR lol!

I know it's the cool thing on the internet to act like FFVIIR Part 1 is never coming out, but Nomura has confirmed that development is going smoothly, and that the lack of information is due to the heads of S-E wanting to focus on KH3 until it's out, so we don't actually know how far along it is. What we DO know is that S-E expects the 2020 fiscal year to significantly outdo the current one in revenue, and I honestly can't think of anything other than FFVIIR-1 that would be expected to do that.
 

Deleted member 1326

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I know it's the cool thing on the internet to act like FFVIIR Part 1 is never coming out, but Nomura has confirmed that development is going smoothly, and that the lack of information is due to the heads of S-E wanting to focus on KH3 until it's out, so we don't actually know how far along it is. What we DO know is that S-E expects the 2020 fiscal year to significantly outdo the current one in revenue, and I honestly can't think of anything other than FFVIIR-1 that would be expected to do that.
Maybe the Avengers game?
 

Deleted member 5764

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Based on Benji's current and previous statements, I stick by my theory about TLoU Part II, Death Stranding, and GoT being planned as cross-gen titles. As none of them are currently confirmed for a 2019 launch, I can see them being the variable that makes or breaks the PS5 2019 theory.

I can't think of any other software that Sony could use to justify a 2019 launch.
 

msia2k75

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Nov 1, 2017
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I know it's the cool thing on the internet to act like FFVIIR Part 1 is never coming out, but Nomura has confirmed that development is going smoothly, and that the lack of information is due to the heads of S-E wanting to focus on KH3 until it's out, so we don't actually know how far along it is. What we DO know is that S-E expects the 2020 fiscal year to significantly outdo the current one in revenue, and I honestly can't think of anything other than FFVIIR-1 that would be expected to do that.

I have to say, reading this, i got a nervous laugh...
 

est1992

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,181
Do you know stuff or just your own guess?
Educated guess. I mean, Phil already gave the codename for it. As a businessman, you don't do that unless it's coming sooner rather than later.

I mean, I kind of have been thinking about this for Xbox Scarlet. Why would Phil Spencer talk about it and even give the code name if it were 2.5 years away from launch at that point? We also know surprisingly a lot about their strategy of releasing a streaming console too. Seems like they are launching in 2019 with a big hint at the November show
In my opinion, the only reason they're having this show is for Xbox Scarlett. I mean, why else have a 2 HOUR SHOW unless you really got some shit to show? It's only been a few months since E3, and I doubt that the studios they purchased are ready to show their games, but I think some new hardware along with big third party devs will warrant something like X018.
 

Benji

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Oct 25, 2017
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Sorry I wasn't suggesting you did, but like you say you thought it a possibility but now say you don't think it is the year. Which is why I asked if someone had had a word in your ear sort of speak *insert winky smilie*!

I just find it hard to believe that Sony would have the HW ready to go but be so far behind on the games. Like others have said they could do cross-gen patches and that would be enough if it came to that. Sitting on otherwise finished HW doesn't seem like something you ever want to do in business?

Launching a new console isnt strictly about hardware timing, or software timing, or business. It's a blend of the 3

You need all of that lined up in order for it to be the correct time. 2019 is possible based on some of that criteria but not all 3 as far as I'm aware
 

Deleted member 5764

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Educated guess. I mean, Phil already gave the codename for it. As a businessman, you don't do that unless it's coming sooner rather than later.

In my opinion, the only reason they're having this show is for Xbox Scarlett. I mean, why else have a 2 HOUR SHOW unless you really got some shit to show? It's only been a few months since E3, and I doubt that the studios they purchased are ready to show their games, but I think some new hardware along with big third party devs will warrant something like X018.

This is incorrect. The codename came from a leak. Phil just mentioned that the team is "hard at work" on the next generation of Xbox hardware.
 

Deleted member 1326

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Launching a new console isnt strictly about hardware timing, or software timing, or business. It's a blend of the 3

You need all of that lined up in order for it to be the correct time. 2019 is possible based on some of that criteria but not all 3 as far as I'm aware
Did you speak about what you think about the business timing, I'd like to read what you think in that regard.
I know you've talked about hw being possible but not sure about sw.

Also related, Sony said they expect some pretty big profits on FY ending on Q1 2021 that would mean a big profit on the same time the hardware launches. That would be a console not much subsidized if they are launching in 2020. I'd say as of a couple months ago when they shared that forecast that it doesn't fit a 2020 launch.

Edit: Had a though time finding this online so I uploaded it again. It's actually not an increase in profit but also not a big drop as a subsidized platform + R&D costs would ensue. I'd say this graph heavily implies a 2019 launch and a much lower profit that FY. Of course they hid that year so we can't tell for sure.
Bk9tAm6.png
 
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Deleted member 5764

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We'll see. As someone who loves the Xbox brand, I wouldn't be against the idea of new hardware being shown off this year. That said, I think they'd have one major uphill battle in terms of justifying a 2019 release.

I'm also mostly convinced that this event will focus on their streaming service. We've heard a ton of rumors about it with no clear release timing. I don't see Microsoft wanting game streaming to be a footnote of their Scarlett reveal. I could also see that leaving a bad impression ALA Xbox One 2013.
 

CanisMajoris

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Oct 27, 2017
891
Why not improve the hardware in the meantime then? the advantage of launching early will be gone if people have to wait for "few months" to get more powerful console as MS is probably planning late 2020 lunch and will have less issues regarding software readiness.

If the hardware is ready but delayed, it's either February/March or October/November 2020. In both cases Sony can't afford the negative buzz about console being underpowered from the get-go, so they must be making some changes.
 

BitsandBytes

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Dec 16, 2017
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Launching a new console isnt strictly about hardware timing, or software timing, or business. It's a blend of the 3

You need all of that lined up in order for it to be the correct time. 2019 is possible based on some of that criteria but not all 3 as far as I'm aware

Fair enough. I think it would pretty easy to cross gen all of the upcoming PS4 games as others suggested. I can't see Sony wanting to or even being able to go back to AMD for a improved spec APU for launch later (up to a year I guess?) as that would cost big money.

Launching up to a year later sticking with the already taped out HW which would be relatively weaker alongside the competition in 2020 seems like an even bigger risk to me but then I ain't no businessman.

If this really is the current situation then I think this could be quite bad for Sony to be honest.
 

SharpX68K

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Nov 10, 2017
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No offense, but it sounds like you are falling into the trap of ¨Oh they didn´t do it like that, the last console reveal was like this¨ which many do.

The next Xbox console reveal isn´t going to be like ¨Project Scorpio¨ where they almost were trying to make people believe that it was a new generation of Xbox. It will be a lot more direct and will be an actual reveal, rather than a showy early announcement more than a year away to restore faith in the future of the brand when Xbox was seeing tough times leading to E3 2016.

I severely doubt we´ll see a ¨Project Scarlet¨ teaser announcement, but the mere mention of the next Xbox and Phil giving some details is nearly that. He didn´t say anything like ¨Well its quite far away, but ....¨ and proceeded to talk, he was talking about it like we´d be hearing a lot more in the ear future. Then we have this Xbox show in November happening out of the blue...

All I can say is I can see Xbox Scarlet out in 2019.

Regardless, I severely doubt we'll have Xbox Scarlet released in Fall 2019.

I think It's less likely than PS5 in 2019, and I'd only give that a 30% chance.

However I could always be wrong, I guess it's possible we'll have Scarlett and PS5 released Fall 2019.

or Scarlett in 2019 and PS5 in 2020.
or PS5 in 2019 and Scarlett in 2020.

We can guess, endlessly, until official announcements are made.
 

Thorrgal

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Oct 26, 2017
12,364
Apparently Microsoft included a short 6.5 minute mini making off with the early 360's. It isn't the super detailed vision I have, though. I would like to see a 1 hour How its Made special from conception to store delivery. /geek.



So not just me then!

But the really good one would talk about all the politics, backstabbing and shady deals made on the shadows!

That's dreaming though
 

Deleted member 5764

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But the really good one would talk about all the politics, backstabbing and shady deals made on the shadows!

That's dreaming though

I believe we already have something like that for the original Xbox, but not the 360 or Xbox One just yet. I'm hoping that we'll get there someday, as I always enjoy that type of documentary.
 
Oct 26, 2017
7,981
Based on Benji's current and previous statements, I stick by my theory about TLoU Part II, Death Stranding, and GoT being planned as cross-gen titles. As none of them are currently confirmed for a 2019 launch, I can see them being the variable that makes or breaks the PS5 2019 theory.

I can't think of any other software that Sony could use to justify a 2019 launch.

That's because it's hard to think of unannounced software. I think one of those games could be launched alongside ps5 in say March 2019 2020 but all of them?
 
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Jeffram

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Oct 29, 2017
3,925
Thank you!

I was looking for this. I read it the same way, that it indicates 2019 for PS5. What could possibly cause them to hide 19 unless it's a clear telegraph of expected losses for a business venture they are not ready to talk about?

I predict FY19 (ending March 2020) would be significantly down and FY 2020 is a bouceback year.
 

Deleted member 5764

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That's because it's hard to think of unannounced software. I think one of those games could be launched alongside ps5 in say March 2020 but all of them?

Edit: I see you corrected your post. I edited my response as a result

I don't personally see all three of those games launching at the same time, but I can see Sony wanting a tight window for them. If anything, I think The Last of Us Part II is the game they'd want most as a launch day cross-gen release. Death Stranding is going to come out when it comes out, there's no rushing that for sure. Finally, Ghosts of Tsushima looks fantastic thus far, but I'm not sure if it has enough appeal as their "big" launch title.
 
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Oct 26, 2017
7,981
Did you mean to type March 2020? I don't see a chance in heck that any of those games launch in the first half of 2019. Best-case scenario to me would be either GoT and/or TLoU Part II in Fall 2019, with the other two launching Spring 2020.

I can't imagine PS5 launching any earlier than Fall 2019.
Sorry yes, 2020! Thanks for catching that.
It's true none of the titles have a window yet, but I think that was true for Detroit this time last year too, and I thought at E3 they talked about it being a showcase of games in the coming year, not that I'd want to take that too literally.
 

Deleted member 1326

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Thank you!

I was looking for this. I read it the same way, that it indicates 2019 for PS5. What could possibly cause them to hide 19 unless it's a clear telegraph of expected losses for a business venture they are not ready to talk about?

I predict FY19 (ending March 2020) would be significantly down and FY 2020 is a bouceback year.
Indeed, that's what led me to believe in 2019 the most back then. Right now I'm pending a bit more towards 2020 only because it's too quiet.
 

CanisMajoris

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
891
Also, why plan for 2019 at all if you know the software is not going to be ready? it's not like they have second hand information about other publishers plans, everyone is riding out the current gen train and PS4 could have great 2019 with lower price. Plan the hardware for late 2020 and deliver when all the pieces are ready.
 
Nov 12, 2017
2,877
I think having 10M+ consoles in the market while the competition is about to launch is a pretty big deal.

Regarding a H1 launch I don't see it happening as they probably want PS5 versions of Fifa, NBA, COD, etc at launch. Nintendo could pull it off as those games aren't really expected on the platform.
I don't think that Ms honestly care of this anymore , and people should think at it ...they release their exclusives day one on PC too ...whatever is the PS5 headstart userbase... the reaching of new Ms games are potentially untouchable for Sony...no matter what....if the games are good ala FH4 for example ..people will buy the game on the Ms store and ...les jeaux sont faits.....Ms need to fix the w10 store before next gen instead
It's billions times more important for them than any rival on the console market
W10 sales of FH4 could give us a good idea on how good games will perform in the store
 
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Deleted member 5764

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Sorry yes, 2020! Thanks for catching that.
It's true none of the titles have a window yet, but I think that was true for Detroit this time last year too, and I thought at E3 they talked about it being a showcase of games in the coming year, not that I'd want to take that too literally.

No worries! I figured that's what you meant. I wasn't sure if you'd respond so I went back and edited my first post. To save time, I'll just re-state it here:

I think TLoU Part II is the game Sony wants as their cross-gen PS5 centerpiece. That's also the game that I see being most likely to slip into early 2020. I think Death Stranding will come out whenever Kojima damn well feels like it. Ghost of Tsushima looks great, but I'm not sure if they'd bet on that being their system seller. If it was a full-fat PS5 exclusive, then heck yeah. But as a cross-gen title I'm not sure it carries as much weight.