PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - timing and specification

[anexanhume]

Absolutely! In theory, they could get away with something like 16GB of GDDR6 for the entire system RAM, as with HBCC the RAM capacity limitation loses its sting entirely.

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This is a case where I'd love to be a fly on the wall where they're doing calculations to anticipate overall system impacts. The cost savings of 16GB of GDDR6 would be well worth the cost of a local flash pool, but I wonder if they can convince developers of the benefits.

 

[BitsandBytes]

wait do you guys honestly believe the "ps5" is coming next year?

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November 2019 is possible. Maybe December 3rd for the full 25th anniversary effect?

 

[2Blackcats]

The CPU isn't the problem regarding BC.

The GPU is.

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Maybe I'm over simplifying it but if you have a bunch of cpu /GPU overhead next gen what's stopping you from using a similar system to PCs where you have drivers for the new hardware that emulates the old hardware?

 

[MaDKaT]

Now that I picked up a new Pro, this fall no doubt :p

My feeling is they will try to capitalize on the 25th anniversary of Playstation which would be 2019 if they go by the release in Japan but I think more likely they will use something closer to the NA release and do late 2020.

 

[Fastidioso]

Now that I picked up a new Pro, this fall no doubt :p

My feeling is they will try to capitalize on the 25th anniversary of Playstation which would be 2019 if they go by the release in Japan but I think more likely they will use something closer to the NA release and do late 2020.

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I'm not see Sony prioritize the Japan anymore considered the decline of the home console there.

 

[Diarrhea Day-Lewis]

Ive tried a whole bunch of indie games since that seems to be the big thing now and although ive enjoyed some, i dont find them particularly exciting. I never ever get hyped for indie games. Those to me are icing on the cake, they shouldn't be the whole cake. And we still have the same shit selling all the time, GTA, COD, at one point its like....enough already. At least now theres PUBG and fortnite but now every game is just gonna copy that and well be in the same situation as we were when COD first got big, everyone will makes games that copy that.

Even movies, its like how many fucking marvel movies do we need a year? Im just so fed up of the same shit over and over.

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Again, not trying to come across rude but it sounds like you need to try something you would normally never try, both for film or games. Thoroughbreds hits theaters next month I'd recommend that!

For games, idk what you've played but I'd recommend: Stardew Valley, Rocket League, Octodad, Monster Hunter World, Persona 5, Nier Automata, Yakuza Zero or Kiwami, Gravity Rush, Everybody's Golf, Tearaway and RiME.

Just a shot in the dark trying to help a fellow gamer out. Forgive me if this completely misses the mark

 

[MaDKaT]

I'm not see Sony prioritize the Japan anymore considered the decline of the home console there.

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Agreed. Also gives them more R&D time.

 

[Diarrhea Day-Lewis]

Now that I picked up a new Pro, this fall no doubt :p

My feeling is they will try to capitalize on the 25th anniversary of Playstation which would be 2019 if they go by the release in Japan but I think more likely they will use something closer to the NA release and do late 2020.

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2020 is the PS2s 20th Anniversary so they'll have that

 

[VincentMatts]

November 2019 is possible. Maybe December 3rd for the full 25th anniversary effect?

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Way too early. Theres no way im buying another console next year.

 

[BitsandBytes]

Way too early. Theres no way im buying another console next year.

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I honestly don't understand why. It would be 6 years after PS4 and 3 from PS4 Pro. Sony have also said last gen was too long/this gen won't be as long.

Sure, 7nm might not be mature/cheap enough for late 2019 but other than that I don't see what would be so wrong launching then if they can? PS4 will still be supported as they always do and arguably with the advent of mid-gen upgrades it may see even more support post next console launch.

 

[2Blackcats]

Way too early. Theres no way im buying another console next year.

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When did you get your PS4?

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

Maybe I'm over simplifying it but if you have a bunch of cpu /GPU overhead next gen what's stopping you from using a similar system to PCs where you have drivers for the new hardware that emulates the old hardware?

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That negates the whole point of consoles being consoles.

The fixed hardware configuration with limited legacy support via BC, is the biggest benefit of consoles as a platform. There's no good reason to turn consoles into PCs by abstracting away the hardware entirely, as you piss away a huge chunk of your performance and games end up suffering for it anyway.

Consoles having a clear generational cut-off benefits the games and gamers more than it hurts them/us.

 

[VincentMatts]

I honestly don't understand why. It would be 6 years after PS4 and 3 from PS4 Pro. Sony have also said last gen was too long/this gen won't be as long.

Sure, 7nm might not be mature/cheap enough for late 2019 but other than that I don't see what would be so wrong launching then if they can? PS4 will still be supported as they always do and arguably with the advent of mid-gen upgrades it may see even more support post next console launch.

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When did you get your PS4?

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I got a pro when it came out and an X this year. I can pretty much promise you that i aint buying a new one for the next 2 years at the very least.

 

[anexanhume]

I honestly don't understand why. It would be 6 years after PS4 and 3 from PS4 Pro. Sony have also said last gen was too long/this gen won't be as long.

Sure, 7nm might not be mature/cheap enough for late 2019 but other than that I don't see what would be so wrong launching then if they can? PS4 will still be supported as they always do and arguably with the advent of mid-gen upgrades it may see even more support post next console launch.

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PS4 is still selling well and generating a healthy profit. It is at peak now. They can afford to ride the curve down a few years. Given their strong position, only a move from MS may give them reason to strike in 2019. Given MS just launched the X1X, they may be fine to stand pat until 2020 as well.

The trajectory of consoles is different now that ecosystem is so important. It's not just about games. And developers don't mind more time to recoup investment in a platform that has a huge install base.

 

[Deleted member 5764]

Way too early. Theres no way im buying another console next year.

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I'll join in with the other folks here and ask when you bought your PS4? Did you also buy a PS4 Pro? It's gonna be six years for the "base" console come 2019. That's around the time last gen that we started to see some serious diminishing returns. On top of that, we have "Pro" models to compare the base to that will honestly make things look even worse.

Edit: Clearly you were talking about things on a personal level and I definitely understand/appreciate that! I've been pretty bad with buying things "day 1" in the past despite having plenty to play on my current consoles. I don't think I'd personally get the PS5 on day 1 if it releases in 2019 either.

 

[2Blackcats]

That negates the whole point of consoles being consoles.

The fixed hardware configuration with limited legacy support via BC, is the biggest benefit of consoles as a platform. There's no good reason to turn consoles into PCs by abstracting away the hardware entirely, as you piss away a huge chunk of your performance and games end up suffering for it anyway.

Consoles having a clear generational cut-off benefits the games and gamers more than it hurts them/us.

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I mean, I'm only talking about for b/c. PS5 games would be to the metal as usual.

I guess I'm just not seeing what's going to be so hard about b/c because it will be using a next gen gpu solution.

You guys all seem more knowledgeable than me though.

I got a pro when it came out and an X this year. I can pretty much promise you that i aint buying a new one for the next 2 years at the very least.

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Well if you got your PS4 3 years later than the rest of us, what's stopping you from doing it again? (or was the Pro your second PS4?)

I think cross gen games will be much bigger next time around so PS4 owners should be happy for a while. I fully expect the PS5 launch to be much softer then the PS4 one.

 

[RoboPlato]

I got a pro when it came out and an X this year. I can pretty much promise you that i aint buying a new one for the next 2 years at the very least.

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Part of the point of a more iterative model is so that people have more choice for when to jump in. Get it Day 1, wait for a slim, wait for a Pro, wait for a bundle. It's all the same to Sony as long as you're in their ecosystem.

 

[BitsandBytes]

I got a pro when it came out and an X this year. I can pretty much promise you that i aint buying a new one for the next 2 years at the very least.

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And that is absolutely fine! (why wouldn't it be). If PS5 does come out in late 2019 then it would be 3 years since you bought Pro and One X replacement might be late 2020 so also over 2 years. No issues!

 

[anexanhume]

Part of the point of a more iterative model is so that people have more choice for when to jump in. Get it Day 1, wait for a slim, wait for a Pro, wait for a bundle. It's all the same to Sony as long as you're in their ecosystem.

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I think this works for people who trade in too. I don't think console makers have to worry about used hardware sales, and incentivizing users by making it easy to upgrade helps everyone. I traded my PS4 to get a pro and now someone else can grab my PS4 and jump in too. The more flooded the used hardware market becomes, the lower the price of entry. I'll absolutely trade my Pro in if PS5 has native BC.

 

[Fastidioso]

Indeed I see Sony release a ps5 in 2019. Probably will be a sort of iPhone x, and ps4+ps4 pro will continue to survive for the bigger audience until the ps5 price is accessible to the masses.

 

[Shin]

If PS4 launched in 2013, and we're talking about a PS5 release in 2019... Why would Sony make PS5 design decisions around lasting until 2030?

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Because every console of theirs have lasted 10 years, why would it change now?

 

[SharpX68K]

November 2019 is possible. Maybe December 3rd for the full 25th anniversary effect?

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I think December 3rd, 2019 - the 25th PlayStation anniversary, is the earliest we might have a PS5 announcement, with a release in Fall 2020.

 

[2Blackcats]

I think December 3rd, 2019 - the 25th PlayStation anniversary, is the earliest we might have a PS5 announcement, with a release in Fall 2020.

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I can't see them announcing anything 3 weeks before Christmas.

 

[SharpX68K]

I can't see them announcing anything 3 weeks before Christmas.

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I actually agree. I think it's more likely PS5 will get announced at a PlayStation Meeting in February or March 2020, and still release November 2020.

releasing PS5 in late 2019 is dangerous for several reasons. Microsoft won't launch before late 2020 at the very earliest, and Sony would leave things wide open for Microsoft to launch a new Xbox with much better specs in 2020. But that isn't the main reason Sony shouldn't release PS5 in 2019, the biggest reason is giving their first party studios enough time to make PS5 games which could not be made on PS4 hardware, that stand out as "next gen" games. 2019 is an extremely tight time frame. late 2020 gives devs some breathing room, not only for launch, but post-launch games that could come no sooner than 2021.

PS4 is selling too well right now to justify releasing PS5 late next year, and combined with those other factors. Honestly, I hoping we can avoid PS5 releasing in 2019 and then having a PS5 Pro come out 3 years later in 2022. I think it would be better to have PS5 come out Fall 2020, and not have PS5 Pro until 2024, if at all. Sony shouldn't need to have, and wouldn't really be able to have another generation until at least 2027.

 

[BitsandBytes]

I think December 3rd, 2019 - the 25th PlayStation anniversary, is the earliest we might have a PS5 announcement, with a release in Fall 2020.

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That could work except Sony did just ~2months for Pro announce>release (leaks?, what leaks?). I can't see them going back to 9+ months.

 

[Yurinka]

I can't see them announcing anything 3 weeks before Christmas.

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If they announce that same day that PS5 is full BC with PS4 games I don't see why not. Only early adopters fans will get it its first year, they will get it anyways, and the price different should be noticiable so...

In fact, it would be awesome that to celebrate the 25th anniversary they'd announce that its BC compatibility would include all discs from all previous PS consoles. And early December they have PSX, it would be a great idea to announce it there. Even more if they open preorders that moment.

That could work except Sony did just ~2months for Pro announce>release (leaks?, what leaks?). I can't see them going back to 9+ months.

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Pro is just an improved version, 5 would be next gen. It isn't the same.

 

[2Blackcats]

I actually agree. I think it's more likely PS5 will get announced at a PlayStation Meeting in February or March 2020, and still release November 2020.

releasing PS5 in late 2019 is dangerous for several reasons. Microsoft won't launch before late 2020 at the very earliest, and Sony would leave things wide open for Microsoft to launch a new Xbox with much better specs in 2020. But that isn't the main reason Sony shouldn't release PS5 in 2019, the biggest reason is giving their first party studios enough time to make PS5 games which could not be made on PS4 hardware, that stand out as "next gen" games. 2019 is an extremely tight time frame. late 2020 gives devs some breathing room, not only for launch, but post-launch games that could come no sooner than 2021.

PS4 is selling too well right now to justify releasing PS5 late next year, and combined with those other factors. Honestly, I hoping we can avoid PS5 releasing in 2019 and then having a PS5 Pro come out 3 years later in 2022. I think it would be better to have PS5 come out Fall 2020, and not have PS5 Pro until 2024, if at all. Sony shouldn't need to have, and wouldn't really be able to have another generation until at least 2027.

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I agree with all your arguments but can see points in favour of a 2019 release too.

I think launching a year earlier could be better than having the stronger box unless there's a ridiculous difference which is unlikely unless Microsoft want to price themselves out. There's an old Microsoft quote about whoever is first to 10 million sales wins the generation (I might be misremembering that a bit).

We always have a launch game period where everyone is a bit forgiving of the launch titles because everyone understands schedules are tight.

I don't think PS4 sales are necessarily relevant at all to the launch timing of PS5.

 

[BitsandBytes]

Pro is just an improved version, 5 would be next gen. It isn't the same.

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I don't think it being next gen will change how Sony now go about announcing new HW. The "Apple model" should be used again if we believe what Andrew House said before Pro launched.

 

[ResetEraIsTheBestEra]

still believe we will have BC, the way sony has embraced the digital market and in the long term (if they any)plan to push psnow even more having BCs makes so much sense so when they offer ps5 games in the service they just need to put the games in a simple man's terms lol

 

[RoboPlato]

I don't think it being next gen will change how Sony now go about announcing new HW. The "Apple model" should be used again if we believe what Andrew House said before Pro launched.

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I think we'll see a time frame similar to how MS did it, just without the bungled messaging. Announcement of the console, specs, and features in May with a game showcase in June at E3. If it is a console with full BC or will have games upgraded on it, known titles could be showcased at the May event too. The Pro turnover is a bit too tight for a generational release but Feb seems a bit too long to me.

 

[2Blackcats]

still believe we will have BC, the way sony has embraced the digital market and in the long term (if they any)plan to push psnow even more having BCs makes so much sense so when they offer ps5 games in the service they just need to put the games in a simple man's terms lol

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Would be great if PSNOW offered a mix of streaming and downloads.

 

[BitsandBytes]

I think we'll see a time frame similar to how MS did it, just without the bungled messaging. Announcement of the console, specs, and features in May with a game showcase in June at E3. If it is a console with full BC or will have games upgraded on it, known titles could be showcased at the May event too. The Pro turnover is a bit too tight for a generational release but Feb seems a bit too long to me.

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It will be interesting which way they go about the announcement or if previous statements were just PR fluff. FWIW here is what Andrew House said in June 2016:

I was surprised by the step of announcing something over a year ahead of time," he said. "The dynamics of the tech industry are such that there's a much heavier emphasis on immediate gratification than there was. A lot of that is to do with how Apple has very cleverly and elegantly managed the 'available now' approach. So yes, that was a slight surprise to me. We experienced this ourselves, when, in 2013, very much in line with our previous strategies, we announced a concept and a name for PlayStation 4, and everyone said 'where's the box? How dare you?!' That was the point we realised, well, we hadn't changed but the world around us had.

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[RoboPlato]

Would be great if PSNOW offered a mix of streaming and downloads.

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PSNow giving download options and essentially being a subscription based library of older titles would be nice.

 

[Kyoufu]

If they can get PS3 emulated on PS5 then downloads can be a thing for sure.

 

[sambills]

November 2019 is possible. Maybe December 3rd for the full 25th anniversary effect?

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I really feel like the "ps5" isnt really gonna be a traditional playstation at all. Just iterative on the ps4

 

[2Blackcats]

I really feel like the "ps5" isnt really gonna be a traditional playstation at all. Just iterative on the ps4

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What's the difference?

I mean if there's a significant spec bump what makes it a non traditional playstation?

 

[Inuhanyou]

There is no difference between "iterative" or "non iterative" at the point we are in silicon and architecture, and there is no real point using vague terms like "traditional" in the first plac.

Both MS and Sony will carry the PS4 and XB1 library forward to the next console, they will likely both allow exclusive games on those new machines. That's about all a new generation means at this point

 

[2Blackcats]

There is no difference between "iterative" or "non iterative" at the point we are in silicon and architecture, and there is no real point using vague terms like "traditional" in the first plac.

Both MS and Sony will carry the PS4 and XB1 library forward to the next console, they will likely both allow exclusive games on those new machines. That's about all a new generation means at this point

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Agreed.

 

[DavidDesu]

Part of the point of a more iterative model is so that people have more choice for when to jump in. Get it Day 1, wait for a slim, wait for a Pro, wait for a bundle. It's all the same to Sony as long as you're in their ecosystem.

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I think this hits the nail on the head. We're in the world of subscriptions and perpetual service and yearly upgrades rather sitting 5 years with the same piece of tech then making a huge leap again. PS5 might be sold as the great new thing but in reality I think it will be more like a PS4 Pro Extreme but with enough improvements and enhancements that it can fulfil the term of a new generation and bring quite massive leaps in what is possible given the jump to brand new tech that will become available in the next year or two.

I would be very VERY happy with this as I don't understand the need for something so radically different that we need a reset. A reset in this modern era would be suicide. It's like Apple radically changing the iPhone architecture every year or two to the point most apps need rewritten. That's madness.

The iterative nature makes me think a PS5 in 2019 more likely, if they can get the components they need at an ok price. Considering the success of PS4 and not wanting to lose momentum they may be willing to sell at cost in the initial phase to keep the hype train going and make sure nobody considers jumping ship to the One X for their multiplatform games, because 2020 really is quite a long time for the X to exist on the marketplace unchallenged.

I'd be happy with the PS5 next year if it has the sort of architecture people are hoping for. I'll buy day one like I did with my PS4. I've considered getting a Pro but the longer I've left it the less I feel like throwing the money away now. I'm happy anyway and look forward to a quite massive leap when the PS5 does drop. Hopefully the BC solution can do lots of nice automatic improvements to games I already own. I hope it's the entire catalogue available to play day one, it really should be and needs to be.

 

[Mr_Antimatter]

I must say the numbers for the latest AMD APu's are looking solid. If the Ps5/nextbox uses similar silicon, with all the usual customization and such, I think we could be in for a treat.

As for launch date? I think we could see a 2019 fall release here. It really depends on just what they want to do with the silicon, and availability of parts.

 

[2Blackcats]

I think this hits the nail on the head. We're in the world of subscriptions and perpetual service and yearly upgrades rather sitting 5 years with the same piece of tech then making a huge leap again. PS5 might be sold as the great new thing but in reality I think it will be more like a PS4 Pro Extreme but with enough improvements and enhancements that it can fulfil the term of a new generation and bring quite massive leaps in what is possible given the jump to brand new tech that will become available in the next year or two.

I would be very VERY happy with this as I don't understand the need for something so radically different that we need a reset. A reset in this modern era would be suicide. It's like Apple radically changing the iPhone architecture every year or two to the point most apps need rewritten. That's madness.

The iterative nature makes me think a PS5 in 2019 more likely, if they can get the components they need at an ok price. Considering the success of PS4 and not wanting to lose momentum they may be willing to sell at cost in the initial phase to keep the hype train going and make sure nobody considers jumping ship to the One X for their multiplatform games, because 2020 really is quite a long time for the X to exist on the marketplace unchallenged.

I'd be happy with the PS5 next year if it has the sort of architecture people are hoping for. I'll buy day one like I did with my PS4. I've considered getting a Pro but the longer I've left it the less I feel like throwing the money away now. I'm happy anyway and look forward to a quite massive leap when the PS5 does drop. Hopefully the BC solution can do lots of nice automatic improvements to games I already own. I hope it's the entire catalogue available to play day one, it really should be and needs to be.

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They'll sell it at a loss again, just like the PS4. Hopefully a bit more of a loss this time now that nobody thinks the console market is about to collapse any minute.

 

[Mr_Antimatter]

I'm not sure they would even need to sell at a heavy loss. People are already doing sub $500 builds with new APU's, and that's at retail prices for parts. Custom everything that can be mass produced would probably come in a lot cheaper in the end. If they factor in you'll buy two games to turn profitable, then they could easily pull off another $399 console I think.

 

[2Blackcats]

I'm not sure they would even need to sell at a heavy loss. People are already doing sub $500 builds with new APU's, and that's at retail prices for parts. Custom everything that can be mass produced would probably come in a lot cheaper in the end. If they factor in you'll buy two games to turn profitable, then they could easily pull off another $399 console I think.

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Factoring in having to buy 2 games is selling at a loss though.

That's how I see it too though. They'll cram as much hardware in as possible and sell at a (1 - 2 games need to turn profit) loss.

Probably for 399. Unless they're going to have the market to themselves for a year and they really want to go all out, or the 7nm fab is still expensive. Then there's a chance they'll risk 499.

 

[VallenValiant]

Probably for 399. Unless they're going to have the market to themselves for a year and they really want to go all out, or the 7nm fab is still expensive. Then there's a chance they'll risk 499.

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I don't understand this mentality that Sony can "risk" selling PS5 at 499.

What reason is there for Sony to take that risk AT ALL? What is the benefit of having a worse launch by deliberately selling less consoles out of the gate?
Sure, they could price drop in a year, but why do that at all instead of simply WAIT a year to release at 399 to begin with?

There is ZERO benefits for Sony to sell PS5 at 499, just to release it early. They are financially better off, and also generates far better buzz in news media, by delaying the release and have a much bigger launch at the lower price point. There is absolutely no benefit to rushing PS5's release to the point of pricing out consumers.

Releasing PS5 early doesn't matter, if most people refuse to buy them at the price offered.

 

[Miniature Kaiju]

I feel that, by the end of E3, we'll be able to tell with some certainty if the PS5 will land in 2019 or not. GDC should give us some rumors and hints, and if Sony fails to showcase or hint at games landing further than 2019, I think it's pretty safe to assume those will be announced as PS5 launch and post-launch titles at E3 2019.

I know Sony has done the whole "we're going to announce shit closer to launch", but that's misdirection. That's just not how they operate. Sony hypes shit way in advance because they know it works and keeps people engaged with the platform.

 

[JustAnotherOne]

wait do you guys honestly believe the "ps5" is coming next year?

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It's a possibility,an unlikely one,but still a possibility. end of next year will mark the 6 year of this gen- that's when you usually shake things up (last gen was longer for many different reasons,some of them are no longer relevant).
I'm still on team 2020,but at the end of next year we are likely to know much more about next gen and will probably be couple of months away from a 'PlayStation Meeting'.

 

[Deleted member 5764]

Because every console of theirs have lasted 10 years, why would it change now?

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Ah... I got ya. As someone who isn't really familiar with the tech roadmap there, would 16Gb GDDR6 really hold them back that much as compared to other consoles they've launched? PS2/PS3 were pretty outdated once their successors came out. Unless there's something I'm missing, I don't personally believe Sony will aim for the stars here.

 

[Ayra Sutoraifu]

They can only launch PS5 if PS4 tops the PS2 sales.

 

[RabbidPeach]

My speculation:

PS5 will be announced mid-March 2019.
A full reveal at E3 2019.
More powerful than XBox One X.
It will be fully backwards compatible with PS4 games. Even with enhancements on certain titles.
The bigest change will be the controller, which will spit in two and act as motion controllers for PSVR2.
There is also a small screen that the split controller can be attached to (Either side) for remote play (Not included with console)
Trophies unlock prizes now. But not clear on details.

One of the launch games will be a Kart racer featuring lots of classic PS characters. Made by a UK developer who is working on it right now in a London studio. A studio that I have never visited.
Another launch game will be a new, untitled IP about stealth action. Featuring a female protag (Looks chinese). Kind of like a MGS clone. Set in Jungle.
Another LBP game too. But not made by the original devs. Looks more like Minecraft than the other LBP games. But with round balls or some shit. It wasn't clear.
It also looks like another Sly Cooper game will be at release too. But starring the Fox cop lady instead of Sly. (Looks like a VR shooting game).

On a side note, there will also be a PS1 Mini, just like the SNES mini released in 2019. But you will be able to download extra titles into it through PSN. Pricey.

That's my pure and total speculation.

 

[Bunkles]

On a side note, there will also be a PS1 Mini, just like the SNES mini released in 2019. But you will be able to download extra titles into it through PSN. Pricey.

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I definitely see this happening. PS1 and PS2 minis that hook to PSN. I also think we'll see another portable from Sony (call me crazy, that's fine, bookmark this). The game has changed a lot since they launched the Vita 6 years ago. It's no longer about specific platforms but about getting people engaged with PSN, the real money maker. It's in their best interest to produce multiple products that can hook in and interact with the service.