(Rumor) GamePost: Destiny 2 The Final Shape Pre-Orders Appear to be Less Than a Quarter of Lightfall’s Total Figures

[TheChungusAmongUs]

Lightfall imo just seemed like a more exciting expansion.

New subclass, a really cool new location, coming off witch queen which many consider the best D2 expansion.

And final shape is coming off lightfall, which people consider as one of the worst expansions to D2, and none of the cool gameplay features like a new subclass are in Final Shapes marketing.

For what is supposed to be the final chapter of this storyline, Bungie has done a bad job getting people excited for it, let alone giving people any confidence.

Layoffs, Joe Blackburn left, delays. I am not all that confident in this expansion.

I have final shape pre ordered, but I am not that excited about it. A lot of people in my friend group are in the same boat of "once we do the raid, we are done with D2"

 

[javiergame4]

I used to love destiny but then deleting content and recycling the same areas for "new content" is just lazy to me. Also there is too many expansions for a new person to just get into and try .

 

[Lemony1984]

I don't really follow it and I don't play D2 , but I haven't seen much marketing for Final Shape yet. I remember seeing a lot of stuff for Lightfall. Is this comparing Lightfalls total numbers right up to launch to Final Shapes numbers today? That seems weird.

 

[SinnyIndonesian]

I used to love destiny but then deleting content and recycling the same areas for "new content" is just lazy to me. Also there is too many expansions for a new person to just get into and try .

Click to shrink...

YMMV but they do add new areas for big expansions, and reusing areas for seasonal stuff is basically a player-base request. "Hey this is a cool area, please use it again" is one of the more popular recurring suggestions in the subreddit.

 

[Sephiroth]

A response from someone on the subreddit trying to warn you about taking this at face value:

https://www.reddit.com/r/DestinyThe...estinybulletins_preorder_numbers_are_at_best/

Edit:

And also in one of the responses:

"Going off emblem statistics (the number Bulletin claims they're using)...

1,498,036 for WQ

1,248,204 for Beyond Light

1,557,002 for Lightfall

https://emblem.report/

But these are purely just people who both preordered the DLC and claimed the emblem from the special orders kiosk, therefore officially unlocking it in their collections.

All DLCs are roughly the same with Beyond Light actually being the lowest.

Final Shape's numbers are at 409,091 right now. Which, if we multiply by 400% (consistent with all other historical performance to date), takes us to ~1.6 million. Even if it only triples, it would still be perfectly in range of all other DLCs, barely one-point-seven (1.7%!!!) off from Beyond Light. Rather than 75%...."

Edit 2: Beyond Light would also be heavily papered due to Game Pass and everyone getting the emblem, even if you did not preorder.

Edit 3: Don't get me wrong, The Final Shape and the state of Destiny 2 right now is dire. They need to deliver an 11/10 expansion if they hope to get to the next one.

 

[sainraja]

Time to make Destiny 3

Click to shrink...

How will that help?

The idea behind not releasing a numbered sequel to 2 was to continue updating/evolving Destiny 2. In the traditional release cycle sense, The Final Shape could be considered "Destiny 3". They are just not numbering it anymore. I suppose they are limiting themselves technologically by sticking with it, but couldn't they just update things under the hood or isn't that what they have been doing?

EDIT
I think it might be too soon to "react" or reach any conclusions. I think the game was going to slow down due to the long season we have right now because of the delay.

 

[strangelove777]

I didn't like Lightfall but I'm going to get Final Shape. I'm not preordering 3 months in advance. There's no reason to.

 

[The Lord of Cereal]

I mean I don't think I've seen any trailers or ads for it yet? Give it time and let the marketing start rolling, it's 3 months out from launch and it'll still sell like hotcakes when it actually launches

 

[Sephiroth]

I mean I don't think I've seen any trailers or ads for it yet? Give it time and let the marketing start rolling, it's 3 months out from launch and it'll still sell like hotcakes when it actually launches

Click to shrink...

They've been so busy the last 2-3 months trying to fix the current state of the game and add new content/keep the fanbase busy while they wait for the expansion. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't start any marketing until April or May.

 

[Remark]

Would not take this data at face value.

The Final Shape will sell alright, where I expect it to fall off is like 2-3 months after once we go into episodes. People are coming in for the main expansion and dipping out because the content after just isn't holding people anymore.

Hopefully the new approach fixes that but honestly I don't have high hopes.

 

[Sephiroth]

Can't help but think of the "tough" times ahead for content creators, D2 related or not. How many times can they spin the "Destiny is deaaaaaad" narrative since we're still like three months away from the release date?

Bungie really fucks up a lot, but content creators are eating pretty well for such a bad, horrible, failed game that should die in order for Destiny 3 to thrive. It's mindblowing.

Click to shrink...

Don't worry about the content creators. Palworld came out a month ago and Helldivers 2 is their new big thing. I'm sure Dragon's Dogma 2 will get them through April and May.

 

[szuhaadalis]

A response from someone on the subreddit trying to warn you about taking this at face value:

https://www.reddit.com/r/DestinyThe...estinybulletins_preorder_numbers_are_at_best/

Edit:

And also in one of the responses:

"Going off emblem statistics (the number Bulletin claims they're using)...

1,498,036 for WQ

1,248,204 for Beyond Light

1,557,002 for Lightfall

https://emblem.report/

But these are purely just people who both preordered the DLC and claimed the emblem from the special orders kiosk, therefore officially unlocking it in their collections.

All DLCs are roughly the same with Beyond Light actually being the lowest.

Final Shape's numbers are at 409,091 right now. Which, if we multiply by 400% (consistent with all other historical performance to date), takes us to ~1.6 million. Even if it only triples, it would still be perfectly in range of all other DLCs, barely one-point-seven (1.7%!!!) off from Beyond Light. Rather than 75%...."

Edit 2: Beyond Light would also be heavily papered due to Game Pass and everyone getting the emblem, even if you did not preorder.

Edit 3: Don't get me wrong, The Final Shape and the state of Destiny 2 right now is dire. They need to deliver an 11/10 expansion if they hope to get to the next one.

Click to shrink...

Author here. I posted this on Twitter but thought I should post this here as well.

Some things I'd like to clarify on this piece:

- The purpose of this analysis is to estimate *how* low the pre-order numbers are for TFS, especially after the reported revenue decline in 2023

- Emblem.report only tracks "active" players (~3-4 million). So, the "redeemed" number on ER may decrease if a player is no longer active

- Charlemagne tracks all ~66M unique Destiny profiles, excluding private profiles as mentioned in the article

- The numbers cited in the article are directly provided by the team at Charlemagne who did a Guardian scan on Feb 23rd on all public Guardian profiles

- Regarding the relative data for the emblems: I was planning to investigate this for the first three months of each expansion when they are announced. However, the team informed me that the Bungie API does not provide reliable timestamps on the outward-facing part of the API. "For example, Bungie doesn't provide a timestamp of when someone joins a clan, just that if they are in a clan or not."

lastly, I was genuinely curious about TFS's performance, which is why I wanted to do this piece. As mentioned in the article, the figures presented are not exact representations of the official pre-orders. They are intended to provide an estimate of the total pre-orders for the expansions.

 

[Sephiroth]

Author here. I posted this on Twitter but thought I should post this here as well.

Some things I'd like to clarify on this piece:

- The purpose of this analysis is to estimate *how* low the pre-order numbers are for TFS, especially after the reported revenue decline in 2023

- Emblem.report only tracks "active" players (~3-4 million). So, the "redeemed" number on ER may decrease if a player is no longer active

- Charlemagne tracks all ~66M unique Destiny profiles, excluding private profiles as mentioned in the article

- The numbers cited in the article are directly provided by the team at Charlemagne who did a Guardian scan on Feb 23rd on all public Guardian profiles

- Regarding the relative data for the emblems: I was planning to investigate this for the first three months of each expansion when they are announced. However, the team informed me that the Bungie API does not provide reliable timestamps on the outward-facing part of the API. "For example, Bungie doesn't provide a timestamp of when someone joins a clan, just that if they are in a clan or not."

lastly, I was genuinely curious about TFS's performance, which is why I wanted to do this piece. As mentioned in the article, the figures presented are not exact representations of the official pre-orders. They are intended to provide an estimate of the total pre-orders for the expansions.

Click to shrink...

Did you reply on the subreddit?

 

[pants]

Anecdotally, I've played every Destiny expansion at launch but I don't preorder until a few days before release

 

[szuhaadalis]

Did you reply on the subreddit?

Click to shrink...

not yet

 

[BrickArts295]

I'm going to assume a lot of players are in a wait and see attitude after Lightfall. If the expansion is good then I'm sure they'll jump back in, I know I will but I'm also in no rush to give Bungie money.

 

[bitcloudrzr]

https://www.reddit.com/r/DestinyTheGame/comments/1b12ybi/destinybulletins_preorder_numbers_are_at_best/

Here's a thread on why you probably shouldn't trust that data.

Click to shrink...

A response from someone on the subreddit trying to warn you about taking this at face value:

https://www.reddit.com/r/DestinyThe...estinybulletins_preorder_numbers_are_at_best/

Edit:

And also in one of the responses:

"Going off emblem statistics (the number Bulletin claims they're using)...

1,498,036 for WQ

1,248,204 for Beyond Light

1,557,002 for Lightfall

https://emblem.report/

But these are purely just people who both preordered the DLC and claimed the emblem from the special orders kiosk, therefore officially unlocking it in their collections.

All DLCs are roughly the same with Beyond Light actually being the lowest.

Final Shape's numbers are at 409,091 right now. Which, if we multiply by 400% (consistent with all other historical performance to date), takes us to ~1.6 million. Even if it only triples, it would still be perfectly in range of all other DLCs, barely one-point-seven (1.7%!!!) off from Beyond Light. Rather than 75%...."

Edit 2: Beyond Light would also be heavily papered due to Game Pass and everyone getting the emblem, even if you did not preorder.

Edit 3: Don't get me wrong, The Final Shape and the state of Destiny 2 right now is dire. They need to deliver an 11/10 expansion if they hope to get to the next one.

Click to shrink...

Some people want the numbers to be low, whether or not it is based in reality.

 

[Milk]

Nuts to me how Lightfall basically killed Destiny for so many players. The momentum we had from Witch Queen to the end of Year 5 was insane. The ending of Season of the Seraph felt like Destiny hitting the full potential we all waited for since 2014. The hype for Lightfall literally felt like Halo 3-tier to me. Like we were about to experience one of the greatest climaxes in gaming.

And now ever since the layoffs everyone's basically just expecting Destiny to fizzle out and Bungie to be taken over. Just crazy to me. Such a damn shame.

I hope once Final Shape marketing goes into full swing in April (assuming), morale can at least improve even if only by a little. Not that I blame anyone for feeling trepidation about the game since Lightfall soured people. But it is also annoying to see so many people just cashing in on rage and doom and gloom ever since the layoffs. It almost seems like a lot of people would celebrate Destiny going under which is just blegh.

 

[KillLaCam]

It probably will pick up when they show more stuff. But I kinda hope it won't . Lightfall should have made ppl stop preordering dlc and just wait to see real impressions instead.

Nuts to me how Lightfall basically killed Destiny for so many players. The momentum we had from Witch Queen to the end of Year 5 was insane. The ending of Season of the Seraph felt like Destiny hitting the full potential we all waited for since 2014. The hype for Lightfall literally felt like Halo 3-tier to me. Like we were about to experience one of the greatest climaxes in gaming.

And now ever since the layoffs everyone's basically just expecting Destiny to fizzle out and Bungie to be taken over. Just crazy to me. Such a damn shame.

Click to shrink...

Yeah The Witch queen was basically forsaken 2 for me, made me fall back in love with the game. Then Lightfall was one of the least interesting expansions and It pretty much killed all interest in the game for me. Plus the whole "don't over deliver " thing came back up.

I think the only thing that could bring me back at this point(even a little ) is the red subclass which isn't gonna happen.

 

[IIFloodyII]

Probably won't pre-order but will be there day 1 and be going in with it as my ending point. The "end" is the selling point for me and they can't really talk much about that, the delay basically just meant I am taking a good long break, might jump back in and finish up the last 2 seasons for this year, but don't really care to at the moment.

 

[EvaUnit787]

I just want a clean slate. Destiny 3

 

[Kyrios]

Who preorders a digital game/expansion this far out from release?

I usually don't preorder digital goods until the preload starts.

 

[Trace]

I just want a clean slate. Destiny 3

Click to shrink...

I think a lot of people are in this boat at the moment, I certainly am. Zero interest in them trying to keep Destiny 2 alive for longer, but I'd be in day one on a clean slate Destiny 3.

 

[Temperance]

Release is 3 months out still, they depend on people picking up the $100 edition and revenue from cosmetics. Doesn't feel like TFS will meet expectations on either front this time.

 

[Gjallarsean]

Worth noting - I did pre-order it when they first opened it up, mainly because I figured I would get it anyways, and I got access to a fun new gun right away. But then when the game got delayed, the pre-order was automatically cancelled. I still got to keep the pre-order bonus in game, but now I'm not on the hook for anything. Wouldn't be surprised if there's others like me that are now just taking a wait-and-see approach with it, especially now that there's literally zero benefit to pre-ordering now.

 

[Lashley]

How will that help?

The idea behind not releasing a numbered sequel to 2 was to continue updating/evolving Destiny 2. In the traditional release cycle sense, The Final Shape could be considered "Destiny 3". They are just not numbering it anymore. I suppose they are limiting themselves technologically by sticking with it, but couldn't they just update things under the hood or isn't that what they have been doing?

EDIT
I think it might be too soon to "react" or reach any conclusions. I think the game was going to slow down due to the long season we have right now because of the delay.

Click to shrink...

I wasn't being serious.

 

[Praedyth]

I'm not even sure the marketing can reverse this. Before layoffs and delay, the marketing for TFS was pretty meh. The showcase was meh, so was the new supers. The delay is to make the campaign "great" but there's only so much you can do before the single new enemy unity and the nostalgia-driven location stick out like sore thumbs.

I doubt Bungie have the time, the people or the will to go all out with TFS and add a second destination or more supers/subclasses… which was what Forsaken did (and it still underperformed in the eyes of Activision). It's a losing battle.

 

[IIFloodyII]

I just want a clean slate. Destiny 3

Click to shrink...

Definitely what I need to care about what comes next. It being done on the bones of Destiny 2 is just a complete interest killer as it will not be a new race or something significantly different, just like new Vex faction or something.

 

[Sephiroth]

not yet

Click to shrink...

You should probably start there. Most of this thread will be people who don't play and want to just dogpile all the time or people who just talk about content vaulting.

 

[Sephiroth]

I think a lot of people are in this boat at the moment, I certainly am. Zero interest in them trying to keep Destiny 2 alive for longer, but I'd be in day one on a clean slate Destiny 3.

Click to shrink...

Too many streamers will complain "but my guns, my Trials win-loss, my flawless raid emblems" so Bungie will change their diapers and give them a fresh warm bottle of Destiny 2.

 

[Sir Lucan]

Dead game.

Sony's gonna destroy Bungie.

Click to shrink...

Bungie is destroying itself.

By far the worst acquisition Sony's made.

 

[Trace]

Too many streamers will complain "but my guns, my Trials win-loss, my flawless raid emblems" so Bungie will change their diapers and give them a fresh warm bottle of Destiny 2.

Click to shrink...

They already did it once with Destiny 1, the precedent is already there.

 

[Sephiroth]

They already did it once with Destiny 1, the precedent is already there.

Click to shrink...

Yes, but they've been on the record on why they'll never do that again.

Edit: Also, they needed a new "next gen" only engine since not even 360/PS3 got Rise of Iron. The game was at its limit.

 

[Powerofthecloud]

Author here. I posted this on Twitter but thought I should post this here as well.

Some things I'd like to clarify on this piece:

- The purpose of this analysis is to estimate *how* low the pre-order numbers are for TFS, especially after the reported revenue decline in 2023

- Emblem.report only tracks "active" players (~3-4 million). So, the "redeemed" number on ER may decrease if a player is no longer active

- Charlemagne tracks all ~66M unique Destiny profiles, excluding private profiles as mentioned in the article

- The numbers cited in the article are directly provided by the team at Charlemagne who did a Guardian scan on Feb 23rd on all public Guardian profiles

- Regarding the relative data for the emblems: I was planning to investigate this for the first three months of each expansion when they are announced. However, the team informed me that the Bungie API does not provide reliable timestamps on the outward-facing part of the API. "For example, Bungie doesn't provide a timestamp of when someone joins a clan, just that if they are in a clan or not."

lastly, I was genuinely curious about TFS's performance, which is why I wanted to do this piece. As mentioned in the article, the figures presented are not exact representations of the official pre-orders. They are intended to provide an estimate of the total pre-orders for the expansions.

Click to shrink...

Your treating preorders as a linear comparison which they aren't.

I'm going to come out and say it. Final Shape will be the highest selling expansion yet.

 

[thediamondage]

as someone who sunk 500+ hours into Destiny 1, at least 300 hours into Destiny 2 but dropped off pretty early on (felt like the game demanded group play and I prefer playing solo) there is absolutely nothing bungie could do to bring me back except Destiny 3.

I don't know if that means a damn thing, I just always assumed there were a ton of people playing and they were happy with that group of players but the one or two times I booted destiny 2 i was completely overwhelmed with all the changes and realized I'd have way more fun playing a new game than trying to figure something out for a game I just don't care about anymore. I don't know how Bungie solves that problem, and just assumed i don't matter to them anymore.

fundamentally I think one big issue with these GAAS games is once you have played a few you "see" behind the scenes, like The Matrix, and you just stop caring about them. I don't know if there are enough new gamers every year to make the kind of money these kind of companies want to make, especially when your real competition is Fortnite, Call of Duty, PUBG, CS Go and the other GAAS games which are super easy to get into and play super casual.

I still boot up COD or Fortnite once or twice a month to play with relatives and its a completely different vibe of progression than Destiny.

 

[Vomiaouaf]

Data source seems shifty at best (although really appreciate the author coming in the thread it's awesome)

Barrier of reentry for churned players has never been that high. Anecdotal evidence from my fireteams/clans/discords imploding since Lightfall (from hardcore daily engaged to dropped out completely) wouldn't be a reassuring situation at scale. Personally will watch the story beats on YouTube and call it a day which after a decade of playing in that universe feels really crappy.

All that said, I don't see why the dedicated fanbase that remains engaged wouldn't eat that extension with a passion.

 

[Fart Master]

How will that help?

The idea behind not releasing a numbered sequel to 2 was to continue updating/evolving Destiny 2. In the traditional release cycle sense, The Final Shape could be considered "Destiny 3". They are just not numbering it anymore. I suppose they are limiting themselves technologically by sticking with it, but couldn't they just update things under the hood or isn't that what they have been doing?

EDIT
I think it might be too soon to "react" or reach any conclusions. I think the game was going to slow down due to the long season we have right now because of the delay.

Click to shrink...

Starting fresh with a numbered titled would be bring in people who stopped playing years ago and new people.

Destiny 2 is a 7 year old game and the only people playing these days are the mega nerds obsessed with the game.

 

[Trace]

Yes, but they've been on the record on why they'll never do that again.

Edit: Also, they needed a new "next gen" only engine since not even 360/PS3 got Rise of Iron. The game was at its limit.

Click to shrink...

I do think they'll pull a "next-gen" only Destiny 3 at some point, maybe just not now. Either that or Bungie drops Destiny completely before then but that seems like wasted potential.

 

[Shinobido Heart]

I wish Bungie did other things instead of focusing so much on Destiny. I know there's Marathon but I still wonder how that game will turn out as an extraction shooter.

 

[bitcloudrzr]

Your treating preorders as a linear comparison which they aren't.

I'm going to come out and say it. Final Shape will be the highest selling expansion yet.

Click to shrink...

Would not be a surprise if this happens. I think their issue is more on the retention of those massive launch sales.

 

[t67443]

Bungie destroyed Bungie.

Click to shrink...

Bungie sldestroyed themselves for Activision only to go on this further bizarre journey.

 

[MJForum Poster]

I don't think Bungie realized just how disastrous Lightfall's campaign and story was for the entire Destiny franchise as a whole. I was VERY invested in the game from Beyond Light up through the seasons that preceded Lightfall. Took multiple days of PTO for both the Witch Queen and Lightfall launches. I was raiding every weekend and reading lore on Reddit and listening to Byf, Mylin and EvanF videos on my commute daily.

Lightfall communicated so clearly that the story was being made up as they go, that anything could be retconned and that Bungie would retcon to meet financial plans - it completely evaporated the passion I had for the game and I haven't completely a season since the one that launched with Lightfall. This feels like Lost (the TV show) levels of dissatisfaction. I just completely fell off of the game and I can confidently say that it was Lightfall's campaign/story that made me all but drop the game for the past year.

I do have The Final Shape pre-ordered myself, mostly because I've played every campaign since D1 launch and at my most engaged I was raiding and completing season passes - I feel like I have to see this story through. But does it surprise me that a community felt like in the wake of Lightfall that none of the lore actually matters and that the integrity of the world that Bungie built with Destiny was disregarded by the company that created it? No, I'm not surprised at all.

Click to shrink...

This is part of the real reason - I think the other part of it is that they have been turning the monetization dial up more and more. The introductions of dungeon keys outside the season/annual pass really rubbed me the wrong way, and Lightfall was the final straw that made me uninstall and not look back.

 

[Praedyth]

Would not be a surprise if this happens. I think their issue is more on the retention of those massive launch sales.

Click to shrink...

It's true, if you look at population graphs on Steam the retention issue on seasons was already present on WQ year. As a player, I doubt Episodes will fix the issue because they're disconnected 200 rank seasons.

 

[Charcoal]

 

[EvaUnit787]

Definitely what I need to care about what comes next. It being done on the bones of Destiny 2 is just a complete interest killer as it will not be a new race or something significantly different, just like new Vex faction or something.

Click to shrink...

I think a lot of people are in this boat at the moment, I certainly am. Zero interest in them trying to keep Destiny 2 alive for longer, but I'd be in day one on a clean slate Destiny 3.

Click to shrink...

I have come back and done away from Destiny 2 a few times. Last time was in the season before the Lightfall stuff disappointed.

I once again got fed up with the post game loop path with season the specific activity etc. It became pointless and I just got tired after 300hrs (of that particular "come back"). The gunplay is so much fun. The race to get to the max light level for some of the end game stuff is so much fun, but then it craters and what they have added doesn't keep me interested.

I LOVE Hell Divers 2 now and I was thinking how I would love a game with Desinty gunplay in this style, which Marathon could be, but it could also suck.

I wish we would get Destiny 3 in that Decima engine. Same feel, better look. Revamped everything else more closer to how Destiny 1 was at the end of the cycle. I love the franchise, but I am so done with 2.

 

[Loud Wrong]

Good news if true. Move on to D3.

 

[RobbRivers]

Left destiny 2 when content I paid and didn't have time to play, vaulted. Never returned. Played more than 1000hrs on destiny 1, didn't had so much time on 2.

Time to unvault content?

 

[Yam's]

I recently tried coming back to play the last expansion as I always do, but I couldn't even finish the campaign this time. It was time to accept that the game simply isn't for me anymore. I really hope for Bungie that they'll be able to turn things around, but I also think that it's time to move on to something new for them.

 

[darthbob]

This article is absolute bunk, and poor journalism.

 

[I KILL PXLS]

After feeling burned by Lightfall I'm not bothering. I'll watch the relevant story on Youtube this time. If I had told 2014-15 me that that's how you'd rather experience the end of Destiny, I'd be thinking what the hell happened?